Outsourced is a pretty good bet as far as what will be cancelled first.
with a 3.5 last night in the demo, I think you might want to rethink this bet. That's a pretty solid number ESPECIALLY for NBC. We'll see if it holds, but even if it drops a full point in coming months, a 2.5 still wallops what Community is doing (which is a MUCH better show that for some reason can't find an audience). If they can live with Community at 2.2 on a premiere WITH Betty White, they'll be produ as punch over a 2.5 from Outsourced if it goes down.
NBC does have a show sitting there that can replace it pretty easily--and I bet that is exactly why they decided to make Parks & Rec a midseason replacement--it can easily step in as a replacement for a cancelled show. Although 30 Rock at its new time is a little strange.
Actually, from what I've heard is that NBC will be looking to start a new hour of comedy sometime during the week, combining Parks with Paul Reiser's Next at mid-season.
And then, there's the question of what will be cancelled first overall--and I tend to think &)*# My Dad Says and Outlaw will be the two shows that go first.
Shatner gets at least all 13. Dad did pretty respectable numbers last night as well. Outlaw I have no idea what it's numbers were but holy hell was that show ATROCIOUS. I pray it gets canceled soon to save everyone working on the show from further embarassment.
As to what I think gets cancelled? Just look at the numbers. Anything below a 2 in the demo and you've got to be sweating bullets. So my call is that Lonestar is as good as dead. There's another one out there but I care not to speculate about it because I know a lot of good people working on it.
Oh, also, Running Wilde... that show's DOA. So, Lonestar and Running Wilde are my guesses... probably in that order.