Not Investment Advice

[Folster]

I think GOOG/L is a buy at this point, and I'm considering adding a little more, even though I'm in the same boat as you in that it would violate my diversification principles. It seems inevitable that it's going to be a dominant force for a long time. I wouldn't commit to a price target, but I think it's pretty well protected against getting much lower.

It looks like GOOG/L missed on revenue and earnings, but beat on ad revenue which was the big concern so it's up today or recovering some of the losses it had in the lead up to earnings.

The revenue miss was still an over 13% YOY increase which is still higher than the 12.5% growth rate I used in my model for them.

 

[Yuma]

I think I know what you are getting at, but "cheapest per share" isn't a relevant metric when it comes to stock valuations because companies can have significantly different numbers of outstanding shares. If company A is valued at $100 with 10 outstanding shares, each share is worth $10. If company B has the same $100 valuation with 50 outstanding shares, each share is worth $2. The pies are the same size but they have a different number of slices.

What you're proposing is to buy the undervalued companies in the DOW. Sounds simple enough. The question is, how do you determine if a company is undervalued? There are a million ways to quantify value from simple ratios to complex models, but none of them can be relied on with any real confidence especially when you consider short term irrationality in the market.

This is why indexing is so appealing, and why I only index in my retirement accounts. Don't waste time searching for the needle, buy the haystack. Unless you find it enjoyable to dig through the haystack like many of us do.

I index too. I have always thought or wondered if you had two stocks, both worth $100 total but one was 10 shares, and the other 50 like you said, and the market rises over time, potentially multiplying by 50 is greater than 10. I am talking blue chips for both stocks, so they would be similar values. I was just wondering because I put my money in an SP 500 Index in my 401K, but the share prices are high so as much money as I pump in there, I don't have as many shares as I would like.

 

[elindholm]

I index too. I have always thought or wondered if you had two stocks, both worth $100 total but one was 10 shares, and the other 50 like you said, and the market rises over time, potentially multiplying by 50 is greater than 10.

All that matters is percentages. If those two stocks each rise by 10%, the value of your holding in each one goes up by 10%, no matter how many shares you hold.

Imagine that you have two rare baseball cards, each worth $50, but for some reason you think of one of them as being worth $50 and the other one as being worth 200 quarters. There's no advantage to keeping one over the other if you expect them to appreciate at the same percentage rate.

 

[Folster]

It looks like we may get another shot at GOOG/L at my target price of $105. It's currently dropped below $111. Although, we may get a second shot at a lot of stocks if you think we just experienced a bear market rally. I likely won't be a buyer with my current allocation GOOG unless it really gets hammered.

 

[BigRedRage]

Yeah I'm back to my spare cash hodl until we see things calm down again. Time to stack it up and wait in case I need to buy more dip on what I already have.

 

[dscher]

Yeah I'm back to my spare cash hodl until we see things calm down again. Time to stack it up and wait in case I need to buy more dip on what I already have.

Careful with the dippers in a potentially raging bear market.. just my two cents. Good luck though.

 

[BigRedRage]

Careful with the dippers in a potentially raging bear market.. just my two cents. Good luck though.

usually I wait for some sort of leveling, similar to what I did a few weeks ago once the market had been calm for a bit.

 

[Devilmaycare]

GSAT might have a little run this week. It jumped 8.5% today to $1.40 (+.11). I've been holding about 1000 shares for awhile now and might buy a few more tomorrow morning to average down. The reason for today's jump and why it might run some more is that Apple's WWDC starts next Monday. There's been rumors since last summer that Apple is going to use the band that GSAT owns (qualcomm already added support to the modem chip) in the iPhone. We had a similar run with GSAT last September right before the iPhone 13 announcement. It got up to about $2.70 then.

The main question I have on the stock right now is when to sell. I haven't decided yet on if I think Apple will really add support or not. If I decide no, then I have to sell after whatever run it has this week. If it looks like they might add it then I think I have to gamble and let it ride.

I hope no one took my "not advice" here.

 

[puckhead]

I hope no one took my "not advice" here.

Uh oh. How bad?

 

[Devilmaycare]

Uh oh. How bad?

It's up about 50% right now from when I posted that and should go up even more. The new satellite feature in the iPhone 14 that Apple announced today is using their satellites and a partnership was announced between the two companies.

 

[puckhead]

It's up about 50% right now from when I posted that and should go up even more. The new satellite feature in the iPhone 14 that Apple announced today is using their satellites and a partnership was announced between the two companies.

Oh, wow, I thought you were lamenting the announcement! Good for you!

 

[Devilmaycare]

Oh, wow, I thought you were lamenting the announcement! Good for you!

Thanks, it was one of those weird plays that I had trouble pushing on people due to how speculative it felt. In early 2021 I bought in when it was at about $1.10 when it came out that Qualcomm was supporting the frequency band that GSAT owns in their new (at the time) cellular modem. It felt like one of the big players were going to take advantage of it at some point and it seemed to fit in with some of the stuff Apple had been talking about. So i was the crazy tech guy with the board of yarn connecting all the dots.

 

[Folster]

GOOG/L is back below my target price for them of $105. It may go lower, but it's a great company that has positive investor sentiment at a fair price IMO.

 

[Yuma]

Thanks, it was one of those weird plays that I had trouble pushing on people due to how speculative it felt. In early 2021 I bought in when it was at about $1.10 when it came out that Qualcomm was supporting the frequency band that GSAT owns in their new (at the time) cellular modem. It felt like one of the big players were going to take advantage of it at some point and it seemed to fit in with some of the stuff Apple had been talking about. So i was the crazy tech guy with the board of yarn connecting all the dots.

I remember when the Chargers stadium was called Qualcomm and the stock was worth WAY more than $1.10 back then. In fact it was too rich for my meager salary. I missed your posts, or I would have taken a flyer on that for sure!!!

 

[elindholm]

GOOG/L is back below my target price for them of $105. It may go lower, but it's a great company that has positive investor sentiment at a fair price IMO.

I got it at the equivalent of $86.88 and I'm shocked that it has come back down so far. It's only a matter of time until it turns back around.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I'm going to need to buy some more GOOG when I buy back in to average down. I've still been sitting on 100 shares with an average up at about 133. getting that down a bit will be nice.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm going to need to buy some more GOOG when I buy back in to average down. I've still been sitting on 100 shares with an average up at about 133. getting that down a bit will be nice.

I recently sold Google in case of massive decreases with the Intent of going back in hard when I feel this is leveling

 

[dscher]

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This didn't age well. No better way to blow up confidence in your high risk funds... Her arkk fund could have a 15 handle in short order based on some of my measures.

Also Cathy Wood:

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood gives up portfolio manager role at two of firm's ETFs

ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood has relinquished her role as portfolio manager at two of the investment management firm’s exchange-traded funds.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Folster]

I'm starting to look at some of my positions and considering making some strategic moves to add further diversification, harvest losses, and take advantage of the sell off of previously richly valued companies.

One example of this is INTC, I'm considering selling a few lots and I'm looking hard at NVDA and AMD. I still like INTC long term, but I think I could benefit from a redeployment like this. However, Both NVDA and AMD still look overvalued according to my DCF models though. But they seem to have much more positive sentiment than INTC so it's not shocking they carry a higher valuation. So it's still in the air.

Another stock I'm looking at trashing for an upgrade in the sector is TROW and even XLF. I'm looking at SCHW and JPM as more desirable financials I'd rather own, that were previously much higher.

There's nothing wrong selling a stock you like for one you like better. Is anybody doing or considering the same?

 

[Devilmaycare]

I'm starting to look at some of my positions and considering making some strategic moves to add further diversification, harvest losses, and take advantage of the sell off of previously richly valued companies.

One example of this is INTC, I'm considering selling a few lots and I'm looking hard at NVDA and AMD. I still like INTC long term, but I think I could benefit from a redeployment like this. However, Both NVDA and AMD still look overvalued according to my DCF models though. But they seem to have much more positive sentiment than INTC so it's not shocking they carry a higher valuation. So it's still in the air.

Another stock I'm looking at trashing for an upgrade in the sector is TROW and even XLF. I'm looking at SCHW and JPM as more desirable financials I'd rather own, that were previously much higher.

There's nothing wrong selling a stock you like for one you like better. Is anybody doing or considering the same?

I'm still on the sidelines since I sold off a couple weeks ago*. It's been a good move so far with how much I haven't lost due to the drop. I'm still deciding how I want to handle the near term. With VIX over 30 I was thinking of buying back in but I think we're still going to see big drops across the board this winters.

AAPL is one that I was thinking of maybe going back in on. It's down about $25 from when I sold and about $35 from it's high a couple months back. It's bleeding again today so it'll still be in my wait and see.

*this is for my brokerage account, my 401k is still in some funds.

 

[BigRedRage]

I did burn some stock a little while back and I'm just hanging out waiting for when I think I should pounce back in and/or average down. The sentiment everywhere is that the worst is yet to come, so, for now, I am just saving money. I did move funds into my high yield savings as it is now at 2.15% again.

 

[elindholm]

I'm starting to look at some of my positions and considering making some strategic moves to add further diversification, harvest losses, and take advantage of the sell off of previously richly valued companies.

One example of this is INTC, I'm considering selling a few lots and I'm looking hard at NVDA and AMD. I still like INTC long term, but I think I could benefit from a redeployment like this. However, Both NVDA and AMD still look overvalued according to my DCF models though. But they seem to have much more positive sentiment than INTC so it's not shocking they carry a higher valuation. So it's still in the air.

Another stock I'm looking at trashing for an upgrade in the sector is TROW and even XLF. I'm looking at SCHW and JPM as more desirable financials I'd rather own, that were previously much higher.

There's nothing wrong selling a stock you like for one you like better. Is anybody doing or considering the same?

I'm fairly heavy into financials, including banks, capital corporations, and a couple of oddballs. (I also hold GPN, which is considered Industrial.) They're all doing poorly, of course, but I'm not really tempted by grass-is-greener thinking in this sector. I'm still fairly confident that the ones I have will be positive alpha if the market ever recovers. The one that's held up the best for me this year is KBWP, an insurance ETF whose top five holdings are Allstate, Progressive, Chubb, Travelers, and AIG. That's still down only 7% YTD, even with today's slump.

I'd love the opporunity to get away from INTC, but I can't sell it this low -- not this year, anyway. I probably won't book too many more big losses until we get to January.

 

[dscher]

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[jf-08]

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I still don't understand NFTs. Or want to.

 

[BigRedRage]

I still don't understand NFTs. Or want to.

I have some Jpegs you can buy if interested. I made them in MS paint.