Off Season Consideration

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The thing is, the further down the Suns draft or any team, it is harder to predict the selections.

Most of the players projected to go in the top ten generally go close to where they are projected. So saying McDonough drafted who he was supposed to pick in that range is not a fair criticism.

When McDonough drafted later, he selected Booker and Warren

You’re not getting it. I’m not criticizing McD for taking a player where he is “supposed” to go. Rather I’m using that as a factor in determining his skill. I’m not looking at this a late a player-by-player analysis. Doing so is looking at the trees despite the forest. I’m taking a broader picture. If he drafts a success earlier than most of the pundits would have he gets more credit from me because it means he saw something that others didn’t. If he drafts a guy essentially where others thought he would and it’s a success he gets credit for seeing what everyone saw. If he drafts someone where they are supposed to be drafted and they suck he gets blamed for not being better than non-experts. If he drafts someone earlier than non-experts and that guy sucks he’s blamed for being worse than non-experts. Does that make sense to everyone? The credit/blame is equivalent.

Those of you railing against what I’m saying are actually doing what you’re claiming I’m doing . . . being hypocritical. You’re giving McD credit for drafting successes at spots they were largely considered slotted at but your giving him a pass on those that sucked because they were drafted at the slots they were supposed to be at. Now THAT’S hypocritical.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Maybe but the rules changes have had more to do with the NBA becoming a guard league.


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So you think Shaq, Robinson, and Olajuwon wouldn’t dominate now? Just checking.

 

[elindholm]

You’re not getting it. I’m not criticizing McD for taking a player where he is “supposed” to go. Rather I’m using that as a factor in determining his skill. I’m not looking at this a late a player-by-player analysis. Doing so is looking at the trees despite the forest. I’m taking a broader picture. If he drafts a success earlier than most of the pundits would have he gets more credit from me because it means he saw something that others didn’t. If he drafts a guy essentially where others thought he would and it’s a success he gets credit for seeing what everyone saw. If he drafts someone where they are supposed to be drafted and they suck he gets blamed for not being better than non-experts. If he drafts someone earlier than non-experts and that guy sucks he’s blamed for being worse than non-experts. Does that make sense to everyone? The credit/blame is equivalent.

That's all fine, but once you get past the first 8-10 picks, there's a lot of difference of opinion about who goes exactly where. I'm sure there were several players who were all "slotted" about where Booker went, and McDonough had to choose one of those several.

On a slightly related note, Tatum has really tailed off recently. Leading up to the last draft, I preferred Tatum to Jackson, but since Tatum was off the board by the time the Suns picked, I was okay with Jackson. It's a small sample size, but over the last four or five games, you'd have to say that Jackson is looking like the more dynamic prospect. I really hope he can keep it up through what's left of this season.

 

[devilalum]

So you think Shaq, Robinson, and Olajuwon wouldn’t dominate now? Just checking.

Shaq hates JC because he was the main guy responsible for the rules changes. He felt it shortened his effectiveness.

Ayton may be at that level but he will not impact the game like he would have under the old rules.


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[Cheesebeef]

But Cheese is saying that his hits don't matter because they were players selected close to where most analysts predicted they would be drafted. That isn't giving him credit for making good selections like @Mainstreet explained above. The top 5 picks in the draft are almost always the same 5 players listed in every mock out there, sometimes the order gets shaken up some but it's still the same players listed at that top. The later in the round the harder it is predict when a player will be taken because different teams value prospects differently. Some players that go in the mid to late 1st round will only be worked out by teams selecting 13, 14, 17, 19, and 21. Effectively ensuring they don't get selected by one of the teams that picks in between those spots.

that's not what I'm saying, but it's obvious you're not gonna get it even if I explain it again.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

That's all fine, but once you get past the first 8-10 picks, there's a lot of difference of opinion about who goes exactly where. I'm sure there were several players who were all "slotted" about where Booker went, and McDonough had to choose one of those several.

On a slightly related note, Tatum has really tailed off recently. Leading up to the last draft, I preferred Tatum to Jackson, but since Tatum was off the board by the time the Suns picked, I was okay with Jackson. It's a small sample size, but over the last four or five games, you'd have to say that Jackson is looking like the more dynamic prospect. I really hope he can keep it up through what's left of this season.

This is fair. But then how would you determine whether you think McD is skillful or lucky? Just depending upon the selection of Booker and warren seems to be a poor analysis especially in the face of a greater data set.

 

[devilalum]

Shaq hates JC because he was the main guy responsible for the rules changes. He felt it shortened his effectiveness.

Ayton may be at that level but he will not impact the game like he would have under the old rules.


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My point is that the franchise center is not the holly grail it used to be.


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[Cheesebeef]

You’re not getting it. I’m not criticizing McD for taking a player where he is “supposed” to go. Rather I’m using that as a factor in determining his skill. I’m not looking at this a late a player-by-player analysis. Doing so is looking at the trees despite the forest. I’m taking a broader picture. If he drafts a success earlier than most of the pundits would have he gets more credit from me because it means he saw something that others didn’t. If he drafts a guy essentially where others thought he would and it’s a success he gets credit for seeing what everyone saw. If he drafts someone where they are supposed to be drafted and they suck he gets blamed for not being better than non-experts. If he drafts someone earlier than non-experts and that guy sucks he’s blamed for being worse than non-experts. Does that make sense to everyone? The credit/blame is equivalent.

Those of you railing against what I’m saying are actually doing what you’re claiming I’m doing . . . being hypocritical. You’re giving McD credit for drafting successes at spots they were largely considered slotted at but your giving him a pass on those that sucked because they were drafted at the slots they were supposed to be at. Now THAT’S hypocritical.

don't bother anymore Ouch.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Shaq hates JC because he was the main guy responsible for the rules changes. He felt it shortened his effectiveness.

Ayton may be at that level but he will not impact the game like he would have under the old rules.


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I don’t care what Shaq thinks of anyone. I asked you a question. Do you think those three would dominate the game today or not.

 

[devilalum]

I don’t care what Shaq thinks of anyone. I asked you a question. Do you think those three would dominate the game today or not.

Their impact would be less under the current rules.


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[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

My point is that the franchise center is not the holly grail it used to be.


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I understand your point conceptually but I don’t think it holds up to more specific scrutiny that’s why I’m asking. You would take Steph over Olajuwon? Over David Robinson? Over Shaq? Under the current rules.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Their impact would be less under the current rules.


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Perhaps. But less of an impact than Steph makes? I don’t think I agree with that. And frankly I’d be surprised if anyone else on the board would.

 

[devilalum]

I understand your point conceptually but I don’t think it holds up to more specific scrutiny that’s why I’m asking. You would take Steph over Olajuwon? Over David Robinson? Over Shaq? Under the current rules.

Steph Curry?

Yes. Under today’s rules he is more valuable.


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[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Steph Curry?

Yes. Under today’s rules he is more valuable.


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Someone make a poll. I think you’re flat out wrong.

 

[devilalum]

Someone make a poll. I think you’re flat out wrong.

Would the 93 Rockets beat the 2017 Warriors under the current rules?

Would they even be a top 5 team today?


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[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Would the 93 Rockets beat the 2017 Warriors under the current rules?

Would they even be a top 5 team today?


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If you surrounded Olajuwon with Durant, klay and draymind? Uh yeah and I think they kill the 2017 warriors. Comparing TEAMS is a terrible argument. If you took the 2017 warriors and replaced their center and Steph with olojawon and Kenny Smith I think the Olajuwon team kills the Steph team.

 

[SirStefan32]

Yeah, I tend to agree that Shaq and Olajuwon would dominate today every bit as much as they did back in the day. I understand that the rule changes favor the guards, but the larger problem is that there just aren't any dominant big men in the league today. There is no Shaq, Olajuwon, or even Robinson or Ewing in today's NBA.

 

[Mainstreet]

Under today's rules one has to take Steph Curry.

The big men need to shoot 3's these days and guard the 3 point shot as well. It's all about spreading the court.

 

[SirStefan32]

Under today's rules one has to take Steph Curry.

The big men need to shoot 3's these days and guard the 3 point shot as well. It's all about spreading the court.

But WHY? That's where people may disagree. I think it's possible that you need to spread the court so that guards can have more space because there are no Shaqs, Olajuwons, Robinsons, Duncans, or Ewings in the league anymore.

EDIT: Just to add, I think this is a bit of a chicken or the egg argument, but fun to think and talk about.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Under today's rules one has to take Steph Curry.

The big men need to shoot 3's these days and guard the 3 point shot as well. It's all about spreading the court.

Those bigs would punish today’s interior defenders at a 70-80% FG clip which would make them even MORE valuable today as they would require defenses to collapse leaving already good shooters wide open looks.

I think y’all are forgetting what dominant low post play looks like. Today’s studs are KATs and Brows. Even modern centers like Embiid stray outta the paint. Those dudes would get steamrolled by Shaq, Olajuwon, and Robinson.

 

[Mainstreet]

You’re not getting it. I’m not criticizing McD for taking a player where he is “supposed” to go. Rather I’m using that as a factor in determining his skill. I’m not looking at this a late a player-by-player analysis. Doing so is looking at the trees despite the forest. I’m taking a broader picture. If he drafts a success earlier than most of the pundits would have he gets more credit from me because it means he saw something that others didn’t. If he drafts a guy essentially where others thought he would and it’s a success he gets credit for seeing what everyone saw. If he drafts someone where they are supposed to be drafted and they suck he gets blamed for not being better than non-experts. If he drafts someone earlier than non-experts and that guy sucks he’s blamed for being worse than non-experts. Does that make sense to everyone? The credit/blame is equivalent.

Those of you railing against what I’m saying are actually doing what you’re claiming I’m doing . . . being hypocritical. You’re giving McD credit for drafting successes at spots they were largely considered slotted at but your giving him a pass on those that sucked because they were drafted at the slots they were supposed to be at. Now THAT’S hypocritical.

It sure feels like the goal posts are being moved.

Please tell me where McDonough has consistently failed to underachieve in the draft.

If you are going to judge him by the draft, please be specific year by year.

 

[Mainstreet]

Those bigs would punish today’s interior defenders at a 70-80% FG clip which would make them even MORE valuable today as they would require defenses to collapse leaving already good shooters wide open looks.

I think y’all are forgetting what dominant low post play looks like. Today’s studs are KATs and Brows. Even modern centers like Embiid stray outta the paint. Those dudes would get steamrolled by Shaq, Olajuwon, and Robinson.

Those old time centers would have to come outside to play defense. Also they would have to shoot the outside shot to keep defenses honest.

Gobert would probably be an elite center years back.

 

[Mainstreet]

But WHY? That's where people may disagree. I think it's possible that you need to spread the court so that guards can have more space because there are no Shaqs, Olajuwons, Robinsons, Duncans, or Ewings in the league anymore.

EDIT: Just to add, I think this is a bit of a chicken or the egg argument, but fun to think and talk about.

Who is Shaq going to guard in today's NBA? Today's centers are mobile and can play all over the court. I think the days of camping out near the basket are limited with the current rules.

However, in the playoffs these guys would be valuable when the game slows down.

 

[SirStefan32]

Who is Shaq going to guard in today's NBA? Today's centers are mobile and can play all over the court. I think the days of camping out near the basket are limited with the current rules.

However, in the playoffs these guys would be valuable when the game slows down.

That's what makes this a fascinating discussion. I would argue that Shaq would get you 30 points while only giving up 20. Hell, Shaq has never guarded anybody anyway. I think guys like Olajuwon and Robinson would be fine guarding the guys on the perimeter.

 

[Dan H]

Robinson and Ewing would be possibly even more dominant, today. Their outside games would mesh well, and who would guard them on the other team? A small forward?