Off Season Consideration

[Cheesebeef]

You can't bash McD for taking Bender and Chriss when they were projected to go where they were picked despite not panning out yet while not giving him credit for Booker who was also picked around when anticipated.

Wha? Sure you can. The NBA... like pretty much EVERY business in the world is results oriented.

If all he’s doing is picking chalk and failing 2/3 times (if those guys failing does come to pass) that’s the bottom line.

 

[Hoop Head]

Wha? Sure you can. The NBA... like pretty much EVERY business in the world is results oriented.

If all he’s doing is picking chalk and failing 2/3 times (if those guys failing does come to pass) that’s the bottom line.

So if a player is good and is selected around where they were projected the GM get no credit but if the player is bad and selected where they were projected that's the GM's fault. Do you not see how ridiculous that is?

You've already made up your mind regarding McD and have now resorted to hypocritical stances in evaluating him.

 

[pokerface]

So if a player is good and is selected around where they were projected the GM get no credit but if the player is bad and selected where they were projected that's the GM's fault. Do you not see how ridiculous that is?

You've already made up your mind regarding McD and have now resorted to hypocritical stances in evaluating him.

They should realize that even supporters of McD recognize his shortcomings. So maybe the other side should recognize some of his strengths? I mean we like Warren, Booker, Bender, Jackson. He makes moves...got Payton.. trades players. He doesn't sit on his can waiting for things to happen.

 

[Phrazbit]

I'm not near as high on McD as I once was, but to give him no credit for the Booker pick is an absolute joke. Look at the 8 picks ahead of Booker and LITERALLY every single pick after and try to come up with an argument where getting a player of Booker's caliber with the 13th pick was "chalk". There is no chalk at that point in the draft.

 

[JCSunsfan]

There were other players projected to go in the same range. In fact, Booker was not my choice there.

This McD bashing has gone off the rails.

 

[Dan H]

I'm drooling over the thought of Ayton/Bagley-Bender-Jackson-Booker-Payton.

I was on the Trae Young train before the EP trade, but I like him quite a bit and hope we retain him.

 

[devilalum]

Wha? Sure you can. The NBA... like pretty much EVERY business in the world is results oriented.

If all he’s doing is picking chalk and failing 2/3 times (if those guys failing does come to pass) that’s the bottom line.

Yep, that’s the job. He isn’t reading ESPN and message boards to decide who to pick. He actually watches and interviews each player. It’s his JOB to pick the right guy. If you’re an NBA GM you are supposed to be one of the 30 most qualified people on earth to make these decisions. If you make a bad pick or a good pick it’s on you.


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[devilalum]

I'm drooling over the thought of Ayton/Bagley-Bender-Jackson-Booker-Payton.

I was on the Trae Young train before the EP trade, but I like him quite a bit and hope we retain him.

Really? You’d take Ayton over the next Steph Curry after one game of watching Payton?

It’s a guards league. The days of center dominance are over. You might be right if Young doesn’t grade out as high as people are saying but all things being equal I’d take an All Star point guard over an All Star center any day.


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[SirStefan32]

Really? You’d take Ayton over the next Steph Curry after one game of watching Payton?

It’s a guards league. The days of center dominance are over. You might be right if Young doesn’t grade out as high as people are saying but all things being equal I’d take an All Star point guard over an All Star center any day.


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Come on, we don't know he is the next Steph Curry. I really like Young, but let's not proclaim him the next Steph Curry just yet.

 

[Hoop Head]

Decided to look up to see where Warren and Booker were projected to go and I found a number of Mock's from 2014 and none of them had Warren going higher than #16. In regards to Booker, most had him being off the board by the time the Suns picked at #13, projecting he'd go #9 mainly. Only one site hit the pick and that was CBS Sports saying Booker would go to the Suns at #13 in 2015. So McD definitely deserves credit for drafting Warren since he would be considered a reach being picked that early and in the case of Booker he somehow got him even though he slipped.

Bleacher Report had him at #22
Yahoo had 2 mocks, here is the other both listed at #21
NBA.com had him at #21
Bleacher Report had another mock where he went at #20
NBC Sports had him at #18
SB Nation had him at #17
USAToday at #16
NBA Draft Net had him at #21
NBA Draft Room had him at #17

Most of them had the Suns taking Rodney Hood or Gary Harris, generally picking a SG for them.

However Booker actually went a little later than anticipated by most Mock Drafts that I found.

CBS had Booker going to the Suns at #13
Yahoo had him going at #9
NBA.COM had him at #9
NBA Draft Net had him at #15
Basketball Insiders had him at #8, #10, #12, and #12 as they have 4 people list their picks.
DraftSite had him at #22
Bleacher Report had him at #8
NBA Draft Room had him at #9

Most projected the Suns to get Myles Turner, Kelly Oubre, or Bobby Portis, so a big at that spot.

 

[Hoop Head]

Really? You’d take Ayton over the next Steph Curry after one game of watching Payton?

It’s a guards league. The days of center dominance are over. You might be right if Young doesn’t grade out as high as people are saying but all things being equal I’d take an All Star point guard over an All Star center any day.


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I think most people here wanted to take Ayton over Young for months now, Payton doesn't play a role in that. Ayton has been the #1 or #2 in the majority of people's opinions here since the year started while Young wasn't one of the top prospects but has shot up most draft boards turning this into a 5 or 6 player draft at the top.

If Payton's acquisition plays a role in anything it's that the Suns shouldn't reach for Collin Sexton if they're picking at #5 or #6 instead of taking Bamba, Jaren Jackson, or Michael Porter. Sexton is still a good prospect but most people were high on him because he'd fill a need at PG and is the #2 or #3 PG in this draft class, behind Young and Doncic, if you consider Doncic a PG. I think some people were trying to talk themselves into taking Sexton because he was the #2 NCAA PG in this draft class but he's not a facilitator like Young or Payton, he's more of a scorer like Bledsoe was.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You can't bash McD for taking Bender and Chriss when they were projected to go where they were picked despite not panning out yet while not giving him credit for Booker who was also picked around when anticipated.

But I’m not bashing him for picking those players where they were “supposed” (again according to the internet) to go. I’m saying if he just picks players where non-GM fanboys and nba beat writers would pick them he isn’t evidencing any skill or bringing any professional value.

It’s like fantasy football. 20 years ago the players who really knew football won a disproportionate amount of the time because they knew the players whereas other players drafted guys from their favorite team. Fast forward and now the entire internet is filled with cheatsheets so any shlub with zero football knowledge can win. Now it’s based a lot more on the luck of injury or the random waiver pick up than on pure football acumen.

So if McD can’t unearth an UNEXPECTED star like a Giannis or a second round pick that ends up a stud he’s essentially just giving us the picks that any of us could make using a “cheat sheet” (aka the internet).

I’m not bashing ANY of his picks by saying this. What I AM saying is that by picking players where WE, unprofessional lay people, would pick the same players (by and large) shows a lack of skill. Unless that is, every player he chose panned out. Then it would show that he picked them because he identified a value and picked him appropriately. But the fact that his picks, at present, seem populate the full range failure-success just seems to extenuate the argument that he’s just picking the player he’s projected to pick and his success or failure is based on luck more than skill.

Every GM, even the best, will have ups and downs, but good ones don’t just point to one great selection and one okay selection. They can point to a PATTERN of success. I see zero pattern with McD.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

You can't bash McD for taking Bender and Chriss when they were projected to go where they were picked despite not panning out yet while not giving him credit for Booker who was also picked around when anticipated.

But I’m not bashing him for picking those players where they were “supposed” (again according to the internet) to go. I’m saying if he just picks players where non-GM fanboys and nba beat writers would pick them he isn’t evidencing any skill or bringing any professional value.

It’s like fantasy football. 20 years ago the players who really knew football won a disproportionate amount of the time because they knew the players whereas other players drafted guys from their favorite team. Fast forward and now the entire internet is filled with cheatsheets so any shlub with zero football knowledge can win. Now it’s based a lot more on the luck of injury or the random waiver pick up than on pure football acumen.

So if McD can’t unearth an UNEXPECTED star like a Giannis or a second round pick that ends up a stud he’s essentially just giving us the picks that any of us could make using a “cheat sheet” (aka the internet).

I’m not bashing ANY of his picks by saying this. What I AM saying is that by picking players where WE, unprofessional lay people, would pick the same players (by and large) shows a lack of skill. Unless that is, every player he chose panned out. Then it would show that he picked them because he identified a value and picked him appropriately. But the fact that his picks, at present, seem populate the full range failure-success just seems to extenuate the argument that he’s just picking the player he’s projected to pick and his success or failure is based on luck more than skill.

Every GM, even the best, will have ups and downs, but good ones don’t just point to one great selection and one okay selection. They can point to a PATTERN of success. I see zero pattern with McD.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Wha? Sure you can. The NBA... like pretty much EVERY business in the world is results oriented.

If all he’s doing is picking chalk and failing 2/3 times (if those guys failing does come to pass) that’s the bottom line.

Exactly. How you guys can’t understand this is beyond me.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So if a player is good and is selected around where they were projected the GM get no credit but if the player is bad and selected where they were projected that's the GM's fault. Do you not see how ridiculous that is?

You've already made up your mind regarding McD and have now resorted to hypocritical stances in evaluating him.

I’ll be honest, I hadn’t made up my mind about McD, like cheese had. But following all the arguments I work through an analysis. My analysis is did mcd’s SKILL result in talent “wins” for us or does the evidence seem to indicate luck. This is what my company does . . . identifies which investments seem more likely driven by portfolio manager skill verses luck. I want a skillful portfolio manager and I want the same for my GM.

When someone picks players in slots where everyone expected to be picked it is VERY difficult to attribute the selection to skill. That is unless their hit rate is uncommonaly high. If it is uncommonaly high it means they recognize that the prevailing thought is actually the “right” thought. If their talent accumulation success is highly variable it indicates they are just following prevailing thought and winning or losing based more likely on luck. So I’m not bashing any particular pick but rather seeking pattern. And mcd’s pattern seems to be to select according to general consensus with highly variable returns. Quite simply people, that reflects the success rate that YOU could attain. That’s just not good enough if you want the team to succeed long term.

If Jackson, chriss and bender and a second rounder or two pan out you can say mcd’s process was skill-driven. But right now the jury is just out on all of them.

 

[SirStefan32]

If Jackson, chriss and bender and a second rounder or two pan out you can say mcd’s process was skill-driven. But right now the jury is just out on all of them.

That's a fair assessment, though I argued that not all of them have to pan out. If two of the guys you mentioned turn out well, I will be happy. Don't give a crap about his second-rounders.

 

[Mainstreet]

The thing is, the further down the Suns draft or any team, it is harder to predict the selections.

Most of the players projected to go in the top ten generally go close to where they are projected. So saying McDonough drafted who he was supposed to pick in that range is not a fair criticism.

When McDonough drafted later, he selected Booker and Warren

 

[Chaplin]

You can say it a thousand times, it still won't make any sense. McD picked him. He gets the credit.

Nobody, not even cheese, is saying he hasn't had any hits--he's just mostly had misses.

 

[Hoop Head]

Nobody, not even cheese, is saying he hasn't had any hits--he's just mostly had misses.

But Cheese is saying that his hits don't matter because they were players selected close to where most analysts predicted they would be drafted. That isn't giving him credit for making good selections like @Mainstreet explained above. The top 5 picks in the draft are almost always the same 5 players listed in every mock out there, sometimes the order gets shaken up some but it's still the same players listed at that top. The later in the round the harder it is predict when a player will be taken because different teams value prospects differently. Some players that go in the mid to late 1st round will only be worked out by teams selecting 13, 14, 17, 19, and 21. Effectively ensuring they don't get selected by one of the teams that picks in between those spots.

 

[Dan H]

Really? You’d take Ayton over the next Steph Curry after one game of watching Payton?

It’s a guards league. The days of center dominance are over. You might be right if Young doesn’t grade out as high as people are saying but all things being equal I’d take an All Star point guard over an All Star center any day.


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If we get the first or second pick in the draft, absolutely.

 

[hcsilla]

Really? You’d take Ayton over the next Steph Curry after one game of watching Payton?

I can't believe that you are serious.

Even Steph Curry himself did make a huge jump to be able becoming from college's Steph Curry to the real Steph Curry.

Even Steph Curry needed 3 years for that.

Steph Curry was very good in college but noone ever did think IMO that he will be that good in the NBA.

 

[devilalum]

I can't believe that you are serious.

Even Steph Curry himself did make a huge jump to be able becoming from college's Steph Curry to the real Steph Curry.

Even Steph Curry needed 3 years for that.

Steph Curry was very good in college but noone ever did think IMO that he will be that good in the NBA.

I said “if” he is that good. Geez


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[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Really? You’d take Ayton over the next Steph Curry after one game of watching Payton?

It’s a guards league. The days of center dominance are over. You might be right if Young doesn’t grade out as high as people are saying but all things being equal I’d take an All Star point guard over an All Star center any day.


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Maybe it’s a guard dominated league because there aren’t dominating centers anymore? Just a thought. Something tells me Shaq, David Robinson and Olajuwon would still tear up this league. In fact they may be even greater terrors without others of their kind in the league. In other words, if ayton is dominant it automatically gives his team a mismatch against almost 90% of the league. And mismatches are a driver of success.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Decided to look up to see where Warren and Booker were projected to go and I found a number of Mock's from 2014 and none of them had Warren going higher than #16. In regards to Booker, most had him being off the board by the time the Suns picked at #13, projecting he'd go #9 mainly. Only one site hit the pick and that was CBS Sports saying Booker would go to the Suns at #13 in 2015. So McD definitely deserves credit for drafting Warren since he would be considered a reach being picked that early and in the case of Booker he somehow got him even though he slipped.

Bleacher Report had him at #22
Yahoo had 2 mocks, here is the other both listed at #21
NBA.com had him at #21
Bleacher Report had another mock where he went at #20
NBC Sports had him at #18
SB Nation had him at #17
USAToday at #16
NBA Draft Net had him at #21
NBA Draft Room had him at #17

Most of them had the Suns taking Rodney Hood or Gary Harris, generally picking a SG for them.

However Booker actually went a little later than anticipated by most Mock Drafts that I found.

CBS had Booker going to the Suns at #13
Yahoo had him going at #9
NBA.COM had him at #9
NBA Draft Net had him at #15
Basketball Insiders had him at #8, #10, #12, and #12 as they have 4 people list their picks.
DraftSite had him at #22
Bleacher Report had him at #8
NBA Draft Room had him at #9

Most projected the Suns to get Myles Turner, Kelly Oubre, or Bobby Portis, so a big at that spot.

So Warren was picked within range and booker dropped to McD. Neither pick requires much skill then

 

[devilalum]

Maybe it’s a guard dominated league because there aren’t dominating centers anymore? Just a thought. Something tells me Shaq, David Robinson and Olajuwon would still tear up this league. In fact they may be even greater terrors without others of their kind in the league. In other words, if ayton is dominant it automatically gives his team a mismatch against almost 90% of the league. And mismatches are a driver of success.

Maybe but the rules changes have had more to do with the NBA becoming a guard league.


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