Offseason Update 12/27

[Mitch]

Campbell made $11 mil this year and though older arguably is coming off his best season. $15 mil is the tag number for Jones and will go up next year. I don't see him signing for less. Safeties are fast rising & Jefferson is hot. Swearinger is the toughest to predict, but he's a great fit for several teams.

I think of this quartet only Swearinger will agree to a multiple-year contract with the Cardinals. While this is a hunch, I think the talks with Campbell's new agent have not gone well, which is why Campbell was already conceding that the Saints game could have very well been his last at U of P as a member of the Cardinals. Campbell will likely go to the highest bidder...which i think will be the Redskins.

Jones is going to be tagged and will most likely play for the $14.5M and then test FA in 2018. I think ideally he would like to play back in the east, probably for one of the New York teams (Bills, Giants, Jets) or the Ravens.

It would not be a surprise if Jefferson is still irked that the Cardinals low tendered him and he is eager to go where a team shows him the love. He should get the love somewhere.

You didn't mention Gresham, but the Cardinals are likely going to have to come up with a 3-4 year offer that was similar to the one he turned down last year---which was 4/$23M/$12M guaranteed---and that is not going to happen, not at those numbers.

With Swearinger, the numbers will likely look like 3/$14M/$7M guaranteed, and that's doable.

One of the main reasons why Keim will draw a line in the sand with Campbell, Jefferson and Gresham---Keim is more vigilant these days regarding compensatory picks.

 

[Harry]

No way Campbell's below 11 and I'm betting someone goes 13. 15 is indeed the tag number for Jones. Since it will go up next year, no way he signs for less.

 

[Mitch]

What irks me about Campbell is---

When the Cardinals were making a run at the Super Bowl last year, he was playing nowhere near the level he is this year. As a result he didn't deserve to be playing this year for roughly 1/10th of the Cardinals entire cap.

This year the Cardinals are losing, but he's playing at high level and it happens to be his contract year.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I think Harry is overvaluing Campbell on the open market. 30 year old DE's aren't going to command an eight figure/year salary. Plus a 3-4 DE at that. I think Palmer will re-structure. He wants to win and re-structuring doesn't mean it will cost him money.

I think the Cards will be able to retain their guys they want and still sign a pretty big time free agent WR in Jeffery or Jackson.

I think Safety will be fine. Mathieu will be healthier, Branch is gone, Swearinger is a ? and Jefferson will likely be retained. I also think Buccanon is a candidate to be moved back there.

CB will be addressed with either Williams, a draft pick, or a guy like Cooper. I think the Cards are high on Williams. His was burned badly as rookie but so have a lot guys that turned out pretty good. They were comfortable enough to start him game 1. That backfired but it should also tell you that they have high hopes for him.

On the OL, RG is an easy position to replace. I think an OL of Humphries, Iupati, Boehm, ??, Veldheer is a strength.

 

[cardpa]

For 2017, Palmer, Fitz, Peterson, Veldheer, Iupati, and Mathieu chew up 47.36% ($81,481,965) of the cap. Even if you can sign Jones and Campbell at $10 MM each you now have 58.9% of the cap used up. You now need to fill out the other 45 positions on the roster with $70,537,968.00 and don't forget you still have Dweed on the books for $2,500,000 in dead money. Now you have $68,037,968 left and you still have to subtract $440,461 in dead money for other players no longer on the team which brings you down to $65,597,507 in available money for 45 other positions. This averages out to $1,438,244 per player.

Add to this the salaries for Bethel, Stanton, Peters, Bucannon, Humphries, Nkemdiche, Golden, and Johnson and they use up $21,617,082 in cap space now leaving you with $43,980,425 to fill out the last 37 roster spots or an average of $1,188,660 per player.

This does not include re-signing Jefferson, Swearinger, Gresham, Okafor, Mauro, Fells, or any other player they would like to keep that is becoming a FA. Catanzaro is a RFA so I don't know how much that will be to tender him if they keep him. If they don't you have to figure another kicker will be at least $1MM. Right now Jefferson, Gresham, Okafor, and Swearinger cost $8,600,357. If you bring them all back you have to figure an average of at least $3MM each which ups their total to about $12MM or about $4MM more than now.

I have not included Branch in here because I think his status is up in the air. If he is retained then he adds $4,187,500 more to the used cap space and if he is released then he is only $500,000 in dead space.

It's doubtful that Campbell and Jones come in at $10MM each and will cost more than that. $25MM is more likely which then reduces your available cash for the last 37 positions to $38,980,425 or $1,053,525 per player. Also not included is money needed to be set aside for the draft.

The 2017 cap space for the Cardinals is $172,019,933 which includes a $4MM rollover from 2016. Presentlly their total in contracts for 2017 is standing at $132,706,103 for 43 players. That leaves them $39,313,830 in available cap space to resign Campbell, Jones, Jefferson, Swearinger, Gresham, Okafor, re-sign or find a kicker, and allow for draft money. Even if they could re-sign these 6 guys they still have 4 roster spots not filled and one would think that the $39MM would be used up in these 6 players. Bottom line is some players are not going to be here in 2017 and it will be players that have made a significant contribution in 2016. Campbell will only be 31 in 2017. He probably still has a few good years left. Jones will be 27. There will be holes in this team that are going to be very hard to fill. For all the talk Keim has said about managing the cap I for one do not think he has done all that good a job. The top 10 salaries are invested in QB (2) ($28MM) Palmer and Stanton, WR ($15.8MM) Fitz, LT ($10MM) Veldheer, LG ($9.7MM) Iupati, CB (2) ($19MM) (Peterson and Bethel, who can't play CB) FS ($8.1MM) (Mathieu who isn't really a FS and gets hurt a lot) ILB ($7.1MM) (Washington, better known as Dweed), SS ($4.2MM)(Branch).

All this I pulled from Spotrac which makes it pretty easy to use.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/cap/2017/

 

[DVontel]

What irks me about Campbell is---

When the Cardinals were making a run at the Super Bowl last year, he was playing nowhere near the level he is this year. As a result he didn't deserve to be playing this year for roughly 1/10th of the Cardinals entire cap.

This year the Cardinals are losing, but he's playing at high level and it happens to be his contract year.

Most likely because he isn't facing constant double teams like he was the past few years thanks to the addition of Chandler Jones.

 

[Chopper0080]

Some thoughts on this.

The tag seems a lock for Chandler Jones.

For Calais Campbell, regardless of what the deal averages out to per year, the Cards can adjust the 2017 hit, so I don't believe it will be an issue to get him around 8-10 unless you are giving him a bonus of 30mil+.

With Tony Jefferson, DJ Swearinger, and Jermaine Gresham, let's remember that these are all guys with issues.

Jefferson is the best of the bunch, but he plays exact same position and role as Tyrann Mathieu. I hate to let him go, but you can't pay 5mil per year for a guy who does the exact same thing that your 9mil per year S does.

Swearinger brings something different to the defense, but is another box-safety who struggles in other roles. If a team want to pay him more than 3 mil per year, let him go unless you structure it like Bethel where the team can get out of it quickly.

Gresham is probably the most valuable of the bunch because he is much better than our other options, but is 28, makes boneheaded plays, and is a bit of an afterthought when our WR corp is healthy. I get another team might offer him 5, but for how we use him, he isn't worth it.

What is tough for me is that Swearinger would be worth paying more if Mathieu could play single high S better. Swearinger is a good fit as a box S and seems to have fixed the issues he had in Houston. I could argue that he has shown more at SS than Bucannon, and people want to move Bucannon. In a perfect world, you would play Mathieu at single high in base with Swearinger in the box. In sub packages you would rotate Mathieu to nickel CB with a true single high S rotated in.

What is going to help or hurt the Cards after they make these decisions is Tyrann Mathieu. He is both a versatile and limited player at the same time. He is most effective close to the LOS. He also has size limitations, and has struggled to stay healthy. You might be able to argue that you could sign both Jefferson and Swearinger for what you pay Mathieu and get similar production. I love his game, but as many have said, the best ability is availability, and Mathieu has not been available. It is one reason I really like the idea of drafting Jamal Adams in round 1 if Rueben Foster is off the board.

 

[Mitch]

Some thoughts on this.

The tag seems a lock for Chandler Jones.

+1

For Calais Campbell, regardless of what the deal averages out to per year, the Cards can adjust the 2017 hit, so I don't believe it will be an issue to get him around 8-10 unless you are giving him a bonus of 30mil+.

Will chase the money.

With Tony Jefferson, DJ Swearinger, and Jermaine Gresham, let's remember that these are all guys with issues.

Jefferson is the best of the bunch, but he plays exact same position and role as Tyrann Mathieu. I hate to let him go, but you can't pay 5mil per year for a guy who does the exact same thing that your 9mil per year S does.

Best tackler on the defense, but I do not sense the Cardinals value him enough to keep him.

Swearinger brings something different to the defense, but is another box-safety who struggles in other roles. If a team want to pay him more than 3 mil per year, let him go unless you structure it like Bethel where the team can get out of it quickly.

He is adept at storming the alleys from the FS position to level ballcarriers and WRs. But is not a great over the top FS in coverage. Yet, he could improve in that role, given that with PP21 on one side, he can shade toward the other. I think the Cardinals will re-sign him.

Gresham is probably the most valuable of the bunch because he is much better than our other options, but is 28, makes boneheaded plays, and is a bit of an afterthought when our WR corp is healthy. I get another team might offer him 5, but for how we use him, he isn't worth it.

The one thing that might keep him around is his rapport with Carson Palmer and wanting to build on his recent success in the system.

What is tough for me is that Swearinger would be worth paying more if Mathieu could play single high S better. Swearinger is a good fit as a box S and seems to have fixed the issues he had in Houston. I could argue that he has shown more at SS than Bucannon, and people want to move Bucannon. In a perfect world, you would play Mathieu at single high in base with Swearinger in the box. In sub packages you would rotate Mathieu to nickel CB with a true single high S rotated in.

Mathieu is not going to play FS any more. Swearinger handles most of the FS role well in the base and Cover 2. The Cardinals needs to add a nickel FS with speed and range.

What is going to help or hurt the Cards after they make these decisions is Tyrann Mathieu. He is both a versatile and limited player at the same time. He is most effective close to the LOS. He also has size limitations, and has struggled to stay healthy. You might be able to argue that you could sign both Jefferson and Swearinger for what you pay Mathieu and get similar production. I love his game, but as many have said, the best ability is availability, and Mathieu has not been available. It is one reason I really like the idea of drafting Jamal Adams in round 1 if Rueben Foster is off the board.

If you click to expand, i posted notes on each point.

Good points, although when Honey Badger is right, there are few players in the NFL who can impact a game more dynamically. The thing about Jamal Adams is that he is best suited to play in the box, so that would create the same conundrum as the Jefferson/Mathieu one.

Great post! I think you have an excellent handle on the pros and cons of these difficult decisions.

 

[Chopper0080]

If you click to expand, i posted notes on each point.

Good points, although when Honey Badger is right, there are few players in the NFL who can impact a game more dynamically. The thing about Jamal Adams is that he is best suited to play in the box, so that would create the same conundrum as the Jefferson/Mathieu one.

Great post! I think you have an excellent handle on the pros and cons of these difficult decisions.

Re: Jamal Adams, the more and more I watch and read, the more I believe he is a true single high/box hybrid. It is why I believe he is worth a top 15 pick. I believe he will show very good speed at combine, he has great instincts, and awareness. He has the size to play in the box and the range and smarts to play deep. He is the closest thing to Ed Reed I have seen.

 

[Mitch]

Re: Jamal Adams, the more and more I watch and read, the more I believe he is a true single high/box hybrid. It is why I believe he is worth a top 15 pick. I believe he will show very good speed at combine, he has great instincts, and awareness. He has the size to play in the box and the range and smarts to play deep. He is the closest thing to Ed Reed I have seen.

I think you are correct---and the Cardinals love to interchange their safeties anyway. What a baller this kid is. We need tacklers and Adams is as good as any tackler in the draft. Plus, imagine how stoked he would be to join PP and HB in the Cardtigers secondary. Hey they call him the Money Badger for a reason. Will he be on the board when the Cardinals pick?

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[GuernseyCard]

Campbell made $11 mil this year and though older arguably is coming off his best season. $15 mil is the tag number for Jones and will go up next year. I don't see him signing for less. Safeties are fast rising & Jefferson is hot. Swearinger is the toughest to predict, but he's a great fit for several teams.

CC made $9.75m this season.

 

[Mitch]

CC made $9.75m this season.

With a cap hit of $15.3M.

 

[GuernseyCard]

With a cap hit of $15.3M.

I know. But Harry said he MADE $11m this season.

 

[football karma]

Agreed. This is why I think that Cards see the easiest way to improve is keep the front 4/5 intact, and then add pieces to the back 6/7.

It sounds like the the back end of the D needs a reboot-- PP and (hopefully) a healthy HB being the constants -- the rest subject to change.

Re: Jamal Adams, the more and more I watch and read, the more I believe he is a true single high/box hybrid. It is why I believe he is worth a top 15 pick. I believe he will show very good speed at combine, he has great instincts, and awareness. He has the size to play in the box and the range and smarts to play deep. He is the closest thing to Ed Reed I have seen.

There is the all-LSU secondary draft where the Cards go Adams in Rd 1 and follow with Tradavious White, CB in Rd 2. Heck: follow with WR Malachi Dupree in Rd3, Kendall Beckwith, Ilb in Rd 4, and Travin Dural WR in Rd 5 and just make it the LSU draft

Another option in the same direction is the Husky draft-- Sidney Jones, CB in Rd 1 with Budda Baker, FS in Round 2

 

[TheCardFan]

Re: Jamal Adams, the more and more I watch and read, the more I believe he is a true single high/box hybrid. It is why I believe he is worth a top 15 pick. I believe he will show very good speed at combine, he has great instincts, and awareness. He has the size to play in the box and the range and smarts to play deep. He is the closest thing to Ed Reed I have seen.

Totally agree...he is special. He is so good, I doubt he makes it to our pick. I think he is better than Jalen Ramsey and he went #5 last year.

We have to hope that teams reach for QB's and RB's ahead of us.

 

[Mitch]

I know. But Harry said he MADE $11m this season.

Got it, thanks.

 

[Harry]

I thought some of the signing bonus was deferred (not the same as prorated), but I can't find a site that shows this so I may be wrong. Even if you drop Campbell $1mil I'm still expecting him to be over paid. The one thing I'm absolutely sure of is that the Cards has a great deal less free money than many people on this board think.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I thought some of the signing bonus was deferred (not the same as prorated), but I can't find a site that shows this so I may be wrong. Even if you drop Campbell $1mil I'm still expecting him to be over paid. The one thing I'm absolutely sure of is that the Cards has a great deal less free money than many people on this board think.

There is no shortage of posters capable of tracking our available CAP room going forward.

 

[Bodha]

100% yes.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

For 2017, Palmer, Fitz, Peterson, Veldheer, Iupati, and Mathieu chew up 47.36% ($81,481,965) of the cap. Even if you can sign Jones and Campbell at $10 MM each you now have 58.9% of the cap used up. You now need to fill out the other 45 positions on the roster with $70,537,968.00 and don't forget you still have Dweed on the books for $2,500,000 in dead money. Now you have $68,037,968 left and you still have to subtract $440,461 in dead money for other players no longer on the team which brings you down to $65,597,507 in available money for 45 other positions. This averages out to $1,438,244 per player.

Add to this the salaries for Bethel, Stanton, Peters, Bucannon, Humphries, Nkemdiche, Golden, and Johnson and they use up $21,617,082 in cap space now leaving you with $43,980,425 to fill out the last 37 roster spots or an average of $1,188,660 per player.

This does not include re-signing Jefferson, Swearinger, Gresham, Okafor, Mauro, Fells, or any other player they would like to keep that is becoming a FA. Catanzaro is a RFA so I don't know how much that will be to tender him if they keep him. If they don't you have to figure another kicker will be at least $1MM. Right now Jefferson, Gresham, Okafor, and Swearinger cost $8,600,357. If you bring them all back you have to figure an average of at least $3MM each which ups their total to about $12MM or about $4MM more than now.

I have not included Branch in here because I think his status is up in the air. If he is retained then he adds $4,187,500 more to the used cap space and if he is released then he is only $500,000 in dead space.

It's doubtful that Campbell and Jones come in at $10MM each and will cost more than that. $25MM is more likely which then reduces your available cash for the last 37 positions to $38,980,425 or $1,053,525 per player. Also not included is money needed to be set aside for the draft.

The 2017 cap space for the Cardinals is $172,019,933 which includes a $4MM rollover from 2016. Presentlly their total in contracts for 2017 is standing at $132,706,103 for 43 players. That leaves them $39,313,830 in available cap space to resign Campbell, Jones, Jefferson, Swearinger, Gresham, Okafor, re-sign or find a kicker, and allow for draft money. Even if they could re-sign these 6 guys they still have 4 roster spots not filled and one would think that the $39MM would be used up in these 6 players. Bottom line is some players are not going to be here in 2017 and it will be players that have made a significant contribution in 2016. Campbell will only be 31 in 2017. He probably still has a few good years left. Jones will be 27. There will be holes in this team that are going to be very hard to fill. For all the talk Keim has said about managing the cap I for one do not think he has done all that good a job. The top 10 salaries are invested in QB (2) ($28MM) Palmer and Stanton, WR ($15.8MM) Fitz, LT ($10MM) Veldheer, LG ($9.7MM) Iupati, CB (2) ($19MM) (Peterson and Bethel, who can't play CB) FS ($8.1MM) (Mathieu who isn't really a FS and gets hurt a lot) ILB ($7.1MM) (Washington, better known as Dweed), SS ($4.2MM)(Branch).

All this I pulled from Spotrac which makes it pretty easy to use.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/cap/2017/

Agreed.

*Except Washington doesn't count against the cap because he is indefinitely suspended, so in NFL terms that is a on going 16 games suspended, and because of that, he is not counted against the cap until he is re-instated.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...tial-suspension-of-martavis-bryant-affect-the

 

[Bodha]

I think you are correct---and the Cardinals love to interchange their safeties anyway. What a baller this kid is. We need tacklers and Adams is as good as any tackler in the draft. Plus, imagine how stoked he would be to join PP and HB in the Cardtigers secondary. Hey they call him the Money Badger for a reason. Will he be on the board when the Cardinals pick?

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Im a big Jamal Adams fan and it sucks because safety is one of the few positions we are set at. We technically could take him and let all our other safeties walk, but then our current holes will still be there.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Jefferson has done everything asked of him and must be retained, and not re-signing Swearinger would also be foolish. One could even argue that by the end of the season Swearinger was the emotional identity of the secondary with his passion and enforcer attribute we have missed since Wilson... we need to keep the positives of this secondary together to ease the Free Safety and Corner 2 transition in my opinion

 

[Jetstream Green]

Jefferson will get $6 mil. Chandler $15m+ Moore is likely affordable. Can't imagine why Palmer would restructure if he's only playing 1 year.

I think Palmer is going to want to play past next season, he has shown no sign of quit in him and appears to have the same mindset of Brady of still feeling great regardless of age... I predict Palmer is actually going to sign an extension with the pay spread out to help the team next season and then the Cards can adjust to the ever increasing cap space

 

[cardpa]

Agreed.

*Except Washington doesn't count against the cap because he is indefinitely suspended, so in NFL terms that is a on going 16 games suspended, and because of that, he is not counted against the cap until he is re-instated.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...tial-suspension-of-martavis-bryant-affect-the

Did not know that and that is the one thing the Spotrac site did not identify. Thanks Rugby.

 

[Chopper0080]

Im a big Jamal Adams fan and it sucks because safety is one of the few positions we are set at. We technically could take him and let all our other safeties walk, but then our current holes will still be there.

I don't know. I believe the Cardinals will try and retain either Swearinger or Jefferson, but I don't believe they re-sign both unless their respective markets are lower than I believe they will be. Mathieu's ability to play in the slot offers him a way to free up playing time for a true S, and allows the team to avoid having to carry 5 or 6 CBs on the roster. Along with this, there is concern over Mathieu's injury history. Adams has an ability to mitigate that while also being able to play both of the traditional FS and SS roles.

My thoughts are that this draft may put us into positions to have shots at a 10 year player. The two that I can easily identify are Rueben Foster and Jamal Adams. If either one is somehow available, regardless of need, we would be foolish to pass on them.