OT - Report concludes Patriots probably cheated, Brady aware

[TJ]

See Russ's post below as to why it wasn't just a little infraction and the penalty was not too severe.




You say smoking gun, well moklerman found a link that shows the bullets as well. This also tells me that Billisacheat was also involved.



With the above analysis I wonder if they will reconsider their decision and increase the penalties and include Billisacheat as a guilty party. His suspension should be for 8 games if not more because this is the 2nd time he has been caught.

That "analysis" was created by a jilted NFL fan using style in lieu of substance. This certainly isn't neither the gun nor bullets you wish it to be.

Does the analysis take into consideration coaching changes/styles, points of emphasis, roster moves?

Also, are you aware that Belichick is one of the biggest sticklers in the NFL in terms of fumbles, and will bench a guy over one fumble? Heaven forbid we consider more realistic assumptions rather than ~1 PSI decrease in a football.

Additionally, why do the Atlanta Falcons have a similar decrease rate of fumbling in a similar time frame? Should we conclude that they, too, tamper with footballs?

The problem with people being so emotionally invested in a story that frankly has no bearing in the lives of others is that they'll bite at any story that coincides with their preconceived notions and presume it to be fact.

Fortunately, the team over at Five Thirty Eight, a far more credible source for data analysis, completely wrecked Sharp's data:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/

 

[TJ]

Fans start GoFundMe site to help Patriots pay $1 million fine

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...ndme-site-to-help-patriots-pay-1-million-fine

So what do you get the team that has everything, including four Super Bowl titles? If you're a Patriots fan unhappy with the NFL's decision to fine the organization $1 million for Deflategate (among other, more substantial penalties), you fire up a GoFundMe page to help offset the cost. Because we all know there's no way a team reportedly worth $2.6 billion can handle what we imagine Gisele jokingly refers to as pocket change.

So here we are.

http://www.gofundme.com/NewEnglandPatriots

------------------------------------------------

Wow. Just wow.

Well, "Fan" is short for "Fanatic", I guess.

Never mind that if this penalty is upheld on appeal, Kraft almost makes up for the $1 mil with lost salary from Brady.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Bottom line: Screw the Cheatriots.

 

[GatorAZ]

Not that it excuses Brady but how in the hell does the NFL have a rule that they don't enforce? We'll check the air then leave the balls out of sight until KO...

 

[WisconsinCard]

Well, "Fan" is short for "Fanatic", I guess.

Never mind that if this penalty is upheld on appeal, Kraft almost makes up for the $1 mil with lost salary from Brady.

Losing a first round pick also gives them more salary cap room to bring a proven free agent.

 

[Russ Smith]

That "analysis" was created by a jilted NFL fan using style in lieu of substance. This certainly isn't neither the gun nor bullets you wish it to be.

Does the analysis take into consideration coaching changes/styles, points of emphasis, roster moves?

Also, are you aware that Belichick is one of the biggest sticklers in the NFL in terms of fumbles, and will bench a guy over one fumble? Heaven forbid we consider more realistic assumptions rather than ~1 PSI decrease in a football.

Additionally, why do the Atlanta Falcons have a similar decrease rate of fumbling in a similar time frame? Should we conclude that they, too, tamper with footballs?

The problem with people being so emotionally invested in a story that frankly has no bearing in the lives of others is that they'll bite at any story that coincides with their preconceived notions and presume it to be fact.

Fortunately, the team over at Five Thirty Eight, a far more credible source for data analysis, completely wrecked Sharp's data:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/

That begs teh question why were Pats breaking the rules and deflating balls, apparently for several years now, if they didn't think they were getting an advantage?

They had Jeff Saturday on ESPN yesterday, he said this isn't a new thing and that teams around the NFL were aware of this for several years, most teams just didn't bother to complain that much. Someone would point it out, the refs would check and if the ball was too low they'd throw it out and get a new one.

Saturday basically said what everyone else said, he doesn't believe for a second Brady didn't know because as a C he works as close with the QB's as anybody on the team and he's never met a QB who wasn't concerned about the ball. They're all aware of it and they all want it at a certain PSI. He said it's beyond unbelievable to think 2 employees did it on their own without any urging from Brady. He's played with QB's who on the field would get a new ball and after one snap, tell the ref it's not properly inflated and get a new ball. Completely unbelievable that Brady wasn't dictating the PSI of the balls.

Danny Kanell said if Tom had come out and said I did it, you caught me, my bad, the suspension would have been smaller. But he lied about it, refused to cooperate, and basically pissed the NFL off.

 

[moklerman]

That "analysis" was created by a jilted NFL fan using style in lieu of substance. This certainly isn't neither the gun nor bullets you wish it to be.

How did you come to that opinion? Seems like he put a lot of work into running the numbers and he stated over and over again that the numbers didn't "prove" anything.

Does the analysis take into consideration coaching changes/styles, points of emphasis, roster moves?

Actually he does consider those things.

Also, are you aware that Belichick is one of the biggest sticklers in the NFL in terms of fumbles, and will bench a guy over one fumble? Heaven forbid we consider more realistic assumptions rather than ~1 PSI decrease in a football.

The writer is aware and specifically talks about that possibility.

Additionally, why do the Atlanta Falcons have a similar decrease rate of fumbling in a similar time frame? Should we conclude that they, too, tamper with footballs?

The line of significance that the author is examining is 2007 when the Brady rule came into effect. Up until 2006, the Falcons had a different HC(Mora Jr.), a different QB(Vick) and an entirely different offense. From 2007-on, they had Smith, Ryan and IMO, it's a reasonable explanation for improved ball security.

The problem with people being so emotionally invested in a story that frankly has no bearing in the lives of others is that they'll bite at any story that coincides with their preconceived notions and presume it to be fact.

I agree that being too emotional about a conversation can skew one's perception but in this case, it's a statistical examination that is presenting anomalies. This isn't hyperbole being stated as fact. IMO, this guy has taken a pretty fair shot at analyzing the situation. I don't know if his numbers could have been examined more fairly somehow but I don't feel like he's slanted anything.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/[/url]

I'll have to look at it some more but the article that was listed as the most damning, was from a self-proclaimed Patriots fan named Fustin. Not only that, I don't feel the way he chose to examine the information was more clinical and in fact, was just a bad premise.

Many, such as Fustin, are acting as if excluding dome teams is some nefarious manipulation of the facts. But he narrows his numbers to just games played outside which is much more a case of cherry-picking than anything Sharp did.

 

[Russ Smith]

How did you come to that opinion? Seems like he put a lot of work into running the numbers and he stated over and over again that the numbers didn't "prove" anything.

Actually he does consider those things.

The writer is aware and specifically talks about that possibility.

The line of significance that the author is examining is 2007 when the Brady rule came into effect. Up until 2006, the Falcons had a different HC(Mora Jr.), a different QB(Vick) and an entirely different offense. From 2007-on, they had Smith, Ryan and IMO, it's a reasonable explanation for improved ball security.

I agree that being too emotional about a conversation can skew one's perception but in this case, it's a statistical examination that is presenting anomalies. This isn't hyperbole being stated as fact. IMO, this guy has taken a pretty fair shot at analyzing the situation. I don't know if his numbers could have been examined more fairly somehow but I don't feel like he's slanted anything.

I'll have to look at it some more but the article that was listed as the most damning, was from a self-proclaimed Patriots fan named Fustin. Not only that, I don't feel the way he chose to examine the information was more clinical and in fact, was just a bad premise.

Many, such as Fustin, are acting as if excluding dome teams is some nefarious manipulation of the facts. But he narrows his numbers to just games played outside which is much more a case of cherry-picking than anything Sharp did.

IIRC he specifically excluded dome teams from his analysis because they don't have to deal with weather.

I don't know if he's right or wrong but clearly the Pats thought they got an edge, they wouldn't have done it otherwise.

 

[moklerman]

IIRC he specifically excluded dome teams from his analysis because they don't have to deal with weather.

I don't know if he's right or wrong but clearly the Pats thought they got an edge, they wouldn't have done it otherwise.

I agree on both points. Excluding dome teams seems reasonable enough to me because they generally have a disproportionate amount of games where weather isn't a factor that skews their seasonal averages.

But that doesn't mean that all games played in domes should be excluded. Over the course of 5 years, it's going to average out for teams with the same baseline(outdoor home stadium). That's all. Maybe it really screws up the data by doing that but I don't see how and don't think it's a poor premise.

And, as you say, if deflating balls is insignificant why did they do it? Why did the league set up strict guidelines against it? There really isn't anything to support the idea that it's meaningless other than a general unawareness by the public.

Cheaters are always thinking of ways to exploit. Someone who isn't devious wouldn't think about changing the air pressure of a football to gain an advantage. They wouldn't even consider the ball. They'd be thinking of which players to play and which plays to run to win the game.

Which reminds me. Both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning lobbied to get the rule passed that allowed visiting teams to have their own footballs. It seems that Brady did it to gain an unfair advantage.

But what about Peyton? I really doubt his motivation was the same as Brady's and IMO, especially considering the long rivalry between the Pat's and Colts, Manning did it so he wouldn't be playing with footballs supplied by New England when he went there to play. I can't help but think that any time the Colts played the Patriots in Foxboro, Manning probably had altered footballs supplied to him.

Anyone else curious enough to see what Manning's numbers in Foxboro were 2006 and earlier vs. 2007 and later?

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm someone who has consistently supported Brady, talking him up as arguably the greatest QB of all time, but this all stinks to high hell. he lobbied for the each team to control their own footballs, home and away in 2006... his stats SKY-ROCKETED after the change was made, and I believe anyone who thinks he wasn't involved in having the balls deflated has their head so far in the sand, they be crapping out mud for a year.

I mean... the balls were stolen for two minutes and put in a locked room. do the Brady supporters REALLY think some random ball boy just did what he did for kicks? he was going to screw with his own team's footballs without being told to do so? come on... that doesn't make any sense.

 

[JCSunsfan]

It would be an interesting study--the relationship of ball psi to fumbling. I would think you could actually do scientific tests with robotics etc and actually gauge how much more difficult or easy it is to hold on to the ball.

This is to football what corked bats are to baseball.

 

[ajcardfan]

I mean... the balls were stolen for two minutes and put in a locked room. do the Brady supporters REALLY think some random ball boy just did what he did for kicks? he was going to screw with his own team's footballs without being told to do so? come on... that doesn't make any sense.

But, but, but.. Boyle's Gas Laws!!! And, Belicheck is the greatest coach of all time because he told his players to not fumble!!!! Which no other NFL coach has ever thought to do!





The raging defense of the Pats by some NFL fans, like TJ, is really getting funny!

 

[moklerman]

Peyton Manning
2000-2006
@NE(7 games) - 165/279(59.1%) 1,908(6.8) 10/14 70.9 rating
HOME(4 games) - 94/149(63.1%) 1,230(8.3) 9/2 103.5 rating

RULE CHANGE

2007-2014
@NE(4 games) - 122/189(64.6%) 1,321(7.0) 11/6 91.2 rating
HOME(4 games) - 97/143(67.8%) 1,206(8.4) 9/3 105.9 rating

Okay, these numbers are for all games(regular season + playoffs). I started with the year 2000(rather than Manning's rookie year 1998) because that's when Belichick started with the Pat's.

From what I see, Manning's numbers at home vs. NE have stayed relatively consistent through the years. Pre-rule change and post-rule change on the road vs. NE seems to show a contrast. Does a 21 point difference in passer rating mean anything or is it just coincidence?

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm someone who has consistently supported Brady, talking him up as arguably the greatest QB of all time, but this all stinks to high hell. he lobbied for the each team to control their own footballs, home and away in 2006... his stats SKY-ROCKETED after the change was made, and I believe anyone who thinks he wasn't involved in having the balls deflated has their head so far in the sand, they be crapping out mud for a year.

I mean... the balls were stolen for two minutes and put in a locked room. do the Brady supporters REALLY think some random ball boy just did what he did for kicks? he was going to screw with his own team's footballs without being told to do so? come on... that doesn't make any sense.

The key to me there is the guy had both teams balls. If he was just on his way out with the Pats balls, had to take a leak, I could see it. go in lock the room wtih the balls so nobody touches them.

But that's not what happened

 

[Russ Smith]

Peyton Manning
2000-2006
@NE(7 games) - 165/279(59.1%) 1,908(6.8) 10/14 70.9 rating
HOME(4 games) - 94/149(63.1%) 1,230(8.3) 9/2 103.5 rating

RULE CHANGE

2007-2014
@NE(4 games) - 122/189(64.6%) 1,321(7.0) 11/6 91.2 rating
HOME(4 games) - 97/143(67.8%) 1,206(8.4) 9/3 105.9 rating

Okay, these numbers are for all games(regular season + playoffs). I started with the year 2000(rather than Manning's rookie year 1998) because that's when Belichick started with the Pat's.

From what I see, Manning's numbers at home vs. NE have stayed relatively consistent through the years. Pre-rule change and post-rule change on the road vs. NE seems to show a contrast. Does a 21 point difference in passer rating mean anything or is it just coincidence?

Seems like the Pats defense has been getting worse so it might just be that

 

[TJ]

The raging defense of the Pats by some NFL fans, like TJ, is really getting funny!

Considering I've stated about 100 times that Tom Brady should be punished, how am I defending the Patriots?

"Raging defense" is an absurd embellishment. I'm not the one who's emotionally invested in this story.

 

[moklerman]

Seems like the Pats defense has been getting worse so it might just be that

Perhaps...here are their rankings:

2000-2006
Points - 17, 6, 17, 1, 2, 17, 2

2007-2014
Points - 4, 8, 5, 8, 15, 9, 10, 8

Peyton had 3 of his best games against the highest ranked NE defenses in '03, '04 & '06 though, so I'm not sure what to make of it.

 

[ajcardfan]

Considering I've stated about 100 times that Tom Brady should be punished, how am I defending the Patriots?

"Raging defense" is an absurd embellishment.

Sorry, I managed to miss, or forget, the 100 times you posted it. My bad.

 

[TJ]

Sorry, I managed to miss, or forget, the 100 times you posted it. My bad.

Namaste

 

[Cheesebeef]

Peyton Manning
2000-2006
@NE(7 games) - 165/279(59.1%) 1,908(6.8) 10/14 70.9 rating
HOME(4 games) - 94/149(63.1%) 1,230(8.3) 9/2 103.5 rating

RULE CHANGE

2007-2014
@NE(4 games) - 122/189(64.6%) 1,321(7.0) 11/6 91.2 rating
HOME(4 games) - 97/143(67.8%) 1,206(8.4) 9/3 105.9 rating

Okay, these numbers are for all games(regular season + playoffs). I started with the year 2000(rather than Manning's rookie year 1998) because that's when Belichick started with the Pat's.

From what I see, Manning's numbers at home vs. NE have stayed relatively consistent through the years. Pre-rule change and post-rule change on the road vs. NE seems to show a contrast. Does a 21 point difference in passer rating mean anything or is it just coincidence?

not sure if it means anything. The Pats defense was MUCH better at the beginning of the 2000's and Peyton historically hasn't played great football in inclement weather... which he played in most of the time at NE.

 

[Jetstream Green]

So now we know why Tom was able to pass the ball so well in cold weather and the snow compared to other quarterbacks lol

 

[sunsfan88]

https://twitter.com/DragonflyJonez/status/598250088293650433

 

[moklerman]

not sure if it means anything. The Pats defense was MUCH better at the beginning of the 2000's and Peyton historically hasn't played great football in inclement weather... which he played in most of the time at NE.

Much better only in NE?

 

[sunsfan88]

This is honestly the best thing to come out of this whole delfate gate thing

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[bankybruce]

Is this still a thing?