PFT on Kliff

[cardncubfan]

DVOA doesn't adjust for strength of opponents. Not in the way you suggest. You don't get less "points" for a 10 yard pass vs the Jets than you would vs the Bucs. Unless the Bucs give up very few 10 yard passes and the Jet's give up lots. And those stats are effected by who those teams play.

FO explain it here,

"The biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality. By adjusting each play based on the opposing defense’s average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; passing plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, or wide receivers. Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. (Yes, technically the defensive stats are actually “offense-adjusted.” If it seems weird, think of the “D” in “DVOA” as standing for “opponent-Dependent” or something.)"

So as you see here "Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing" which really all depends on who your opponents are facing.

So let's say for example we play the Cowboys and the Cowboys are averaging 30+ points a game with Dak playing some poor teams in a poor division, but then Dak is out and they only put up 10 (with all the yardage and play stats that go along with a poor performance) then you're going to get a whopping DVOA boost.

How many backup QB's alone did we face last year?

Like I said, the D was better but we didn't have the 10th best D in football in reality. All DVOA says is we had the 10th best D vs the opponents we played based on how those teams played against their other opponents, without factoring if they had a backup QB starting, their star WR or RB missing etc

I'm not trashing DVOA and it's far more complicated than described above factoring alot of variables but like every system in existence it's not perfect. It still has a lot of value.

At least, that's how I understand it from reading their explanation.

BIM

What’s the difference between “affect” and “effect” and when should they be used?

These two words are often confused as they look and sound very similar.

www.londonschool.com

 

[Krangodnzr]

I would argue that being unable to run vs a light defensive box is a line personnel issue more than anything.

That's what I was thinking as well. It's hard to dissect what is a personnel problem vs. what is a scheme problem, when we can clearly see the IOL give up so much pressure and the teams inability to run against real light boxes.

 

[Stout]

Well, then, let me share some more with you:

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This. I mean, the moment the criticism comes in, some want to deflect it all away from KK. We definitely had IOL problems, and our HC certainly exacerbated the situation in any number of ways.

 

[BritCard]

Well, then, let me share some more with you:

You must be registered for see images attach

Brilliant. It's great to see the Pro's say exactly what I've been saying for the past year regarding Kliff's extremely basic passing game with limited routes. When people are laying into Kirk for example you need to remember he basically only runs curls, comebacks and outs with the occasional go. How's he supposed to produce big numbers in such a limited scheme?

 

[DVontel]

Brilliant. It's great to see the Pro's say exactly what I've been saying for the past year regarding Kliff's extremely basic passing game with limited routes. When people are laying into Kirk for example you need to remember he basically only runs curls, comebacks and outs with the occasional go. How's he supposed to produce big numbers in such a limited scheme?

None of this excuses the drops or hesitating to go by a defender with the ball.

 

[Chopper0080]

Well, then, let me share some more with you:

You must be registered for see images attach

When looking at how our passing game has struggled along with this info, you have to hope something changes this year.

 

[BritCard]

None of this excuses the drops or hesitating to go by a defender with the ball.

His drop rate is below league average and what chance do you have for YAC when running comebacks, curls and outs?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

That's what I was thinking as well. It's hard to dissect what is a personnel problem vs. what is a scheme problem, when we can clearly see the IOL give up so much pressure and the teams inability to run against real light boxes.

With Hudson up the middle this year, the IOL excuse is going to be much tougher to swallow.

 

[Krangodnzr]

With Hudson up the middle this year, the IOL excuse is going to be much tougher to swallow.

Well...he could always fall off. And there is also the possibility that RG doesn't work out even though there are 2-3 candidates.

I just find in peculiar that anyone watched this team last year and didn't come away with the idea that there are some holes on the roster that definitely hurt the team down the stretch.

C - Mason Cole was one of the worst centers in football at both making line calls AND as a blocker.

RG - was up and down. Justin Murray had some good games and bad games. Sweezy was wretchedly awful whenever he played.

RT - Beachum is a decent pass blocker, but merely average as a run blocker. Paired with issues at C AND RG...that can be a disaster at times.

WR2 - Kirk is a decent #3 who should not be lined up wide. A move to the slot should help him alot.

Slot - Fitzgerald has lost more than a step. He became a below average blocker at TE who doesn't threaten the seam.

RB - the Cardinals offense desperately needed a decisive, physical runner. Drake isn't a bad player, but no one would confuse him as a pile mover.

QB - Murray still is learning to play QB. His lack of starts in college means that he is behind at reading defenses and going through his progressions. His footwork when pressured isn't good, and he is below average throwing the ball on the run. He was bottom three throwing intermediate routes, and because of constant interior pressure, couldn't consistently challenge defenses deep.

I think Keim has improved C. He has a number of decent candidates to start at RG (Murray, Jones, and Winters). AJ Green should be better than the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald, and moving Kirk to the slot should open him up to easier match ups and more YAC opportunities. James Conner is a more decisive runner and should get more yards after contact, and hopefully Ward should get more opportunities too. And I think another year for Murray should bring more improvement.

 

[PACardsFan]

Well...he could always fall off. And there is also the possibility that RG doesn't work out even though there are 2-3 candidates.

I just find in peculiar that anyone watched this team last year and didn't come away with the idea that there are some holes on the roster that definitely hurt the team down the stretch.

C - Mason Cole was one of the worst centers in football at both making line calls AND as a blocker.

RG - was up and down. Justin Murray had some good games and bad games. Sweezy was wretchedly awful whenever he played.

RT - Beachum is a decent pass blocker, but merely average as a run blocker. Paired with issues at C AND RG...that can be a disaster at times.

WR2 - Kirk is a decent #3 who should not be lined up wide. A move to the slot should help him alot.

Slot - Fitzgerald has lost more than a step. He became a below average blocker at TE who doesn't threaten the seam.

RB - the Cardinals offense desperately needed a decisive, physical runner. Drake isn't a bad player, but no one would confuse him as a pile mover.

QB - Murray still is learning to play QB. His lack of starts in college means that he is behind at reading defenses and going through his progressions. His footwork when pressured isn't good, and he is below average throwing the ball on the run. He was bottom three throwing intermediate routes, and because of constant interior pressure, couldn't consistently challenge defenses deep.

I think Keim has improved C. He has a number of decent candidates to start at RG (Murray, Jones, and Winters). AJ Green should be better than the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald, and moving Kirk to the slot should open him up to easier match ups and more YAC opportunities. James Conner is a more decisive runner and should get more yards after contact, and hopefully Ward should get more opportunities too. And I think another year for Murray should bring more improvement.

This is a fair explanation of why teams figured us out down the stretch. Whereas Murray has to continue to improve, I believe his intermediate woes last season had everything to do with our weak IOL & our weak WR room. Hudson should help a ton, but I’m hoping it’s enough to offset what’s beside him.

 

[cardncubfan]

I think Keim has improved C. He has a number of decent candidates to start at RG (Murray, Jones, and Winters). AJ Green should be better than the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald, and moving Kirk to the slot should open him up to easier match ups and more YAC opportunities. James Conner is a more decisive runner and should get more yards after contact, and hopefully Ward should get more opportunities too. And I think another year for Murray should bring more improvement.

Very disrespectful. Even if he has lost a step or two he still deserves respect for everything he's done on & off the field for this team & doesn't deserve to be called a corpse. Larry still executes when his number is called. You don't see him dropping passes like Kirk. JMHO of course. Not that anyone gives a damn.

 

[BritCard]

This is a fair explanation of why teams figured us out down the stretch. Whereas Murray has to continue to improve, I believe his intermediate woes last season had everything to do with our weak IOL & our weak WR room. Hudson should help a ton, but I’m hoping it’s enough to offset what’s beside him.

The Football Outsiders quotes show exactly why we sucked in the 2nd half of last season.

 

[BritCard]

The new FO annual came out yesterday, and they absolutely LIT into Kliff.

Do you have a link to this?

 

[football karma]

the FO analysis is good stuff.

a couple thoughts:

i think James Conner + Hudson are a reaction to light boxes. If you can runt against what is effectively 6 in the box, thats a problem.

I also think Rondale Moore is important against those defenses in that he (hopefully) can make the first guy miss

on the KK route tree, what I question on the FO analysis is that we know the offense runs lots of mesh -- which is basically two deep over routes-- but i dont see that on the tree they cite. makes me wonder if they miss other things.

totally agree on the macro: tons of comebacks and digs that against a zone -- a wr catching facing backwards affords little opportunity to add anything post catch

 

[SoonerLou]

Orlovosky made some good points.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[kerouac9]

Do you have a link to this?

It's behind a paywall that I'd prefer not to broach because I <3 FO's content and want to support them. What else would you like to know? Would you like to know how Kliff expects to win with such a limited passing attack?

How does Kingsbury expect to win with such a limited passing attack? With tempo. The Cardinals had the league's fastest offense in neutral situations, and they rarely took their foot off the gas—they were also fastest when leading by seven points or more. There was no secret to what Arizona was doing: get to the line, call a run or a short pass, then get back to the line and do it again as fast as they could. Their pace was so frantic that they rarely used motion, doing so only 29% of the time, the lowest rate in the league. But Kingsbury didn't care about confusing the defense or giving Murray an easy pre-snap read—he just wanted his quarterback to check down to receivers underneath the coverage and make defenses execute over and over again, hoping they eventually wore down and blew an assignment or missed a tackle. It led to an aerial attack that made life frustrating for Cardinals fans, simple for defensive coordinators, and maddeningly dull for everyone else.

This scheme may work fine in college, against defenses staffed by economics majors who are squeezing a couple of hours of daily practice in between morning classes and evening studies. But this is not the Big 12. This is the NFL, where players use every waking hour to prepare for the game and defenders who beat themselves don't often make it out of training camp. If anything, it was the Cardinals making the sloppy mistakes. They were flagged for a league-high 65 offensive penalties, including 29 false starts—five more than anyone else and more than double the average team (14.1). No center had more penalties than Mason Cole, no guard had more penalties than Justin Pugh, and Kelvin Beachum and D.J. Humphries were both in the top 10 among tackles. The Cardinals were also in the top five in fumbles, including a league-high 11 loose balls in the last six weeks of the year.

the FO analysis is good stuff.

a couple thoughts:

i think James Conner + Hudson are a reaction to light boxes. If you can runt against what is effectively 6 in the box, thats a problem.

I also think Rondale Moore is important against those defenses in that he (hopefully) can make the first guy miss

on the KK route tree, what I question on the FO analysis is that we know the offense runs lots of mesh -- which is basically two deep over routes-- but i dont see that on the tree they cite. makes me wonder if they miss other things.

totally agree on the macro: tons of comebacks and digs that against a zone -- a wr catching facing backwards affords little opportunity to add anything post catch

Do we, though? Where's the evidence? The mesh concept is an important part of the Air Raid scheme, but maybe we're not integrating that into the offense as it extist. Check out Kyler's passing charts from last season. Those passes between the hashes and 8-10 yards past the line of scrimmate aren't there.

Look at Christian Kirk's routes from last season. It's basically goes and comebacks.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Thanks for sharing - two things really stick out.

"If anything, it was the Cardinals making the sloppy mistakes. They were flagged for a league-high 65 offensive penalties, including 29 false starts—five more than anyone else and more than double the average team (14.1). No center had more penalties than Mason Cole, no guard had more penalties than Justin Pugh, and Kelvin Beachum and D.J. Humphries were both in the top 10 among tackles. The Cardinals were also in the top five in fumbles, including a league-high 11 loose balls in the last six weeks of the year."

My god, the discipline and focus issues on this team seemed obvious, but to see it in numbers is striking.

29 false starts, in mostly empty stadiums. How does that happen?

Speaking of route trees...https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/cardinals-deandre-hopkins-kliff-kingsbury-01es1ftwxqsa

 

[football karma]

Do we, though? Where's the evidence?

the long Dan Arnold TD vs the Rams last year was a mesh with Hopkins (as an example)

the near TD by Hop week 1 vs the 49ers was mesh

 

[kerouac9]

the long Dan Arnold TD vs the Rams last year was a mesh with Hopkins (as an example)

the near TD by Hop week 1 vs the 49ers was mesh

Okay, but the plural of anecdotes isn't "data." The article says that the Cards ran those routes fewer than anyone else in the NFL, not that they didn't run them at all.

 

[football karma]

Okay, but the plural of anecdotes isn't "data." The article says that the Cards ran those routes fewer than anyone else in the NFL, not that they didn't run them at all.

of course

but just two highlight plays off hand suggests they run it more than given credit for. The Warner vids breaking down K1 also show lots of the routes being run that FO says they dont run

another explanation is that KK didnt trust either his QB to read deeper throws against zone, or, didnt trust his o-line post K1 injury to let him hold the ball for those routes

 

[BritCard]

How does Kingsbury expect to win with such a limited passing attack? With tempo. The Cardinals had the league's fastest offense in neutral situations, and they rarely took their foot off the gas—they were also fastest when leading by seven points or more. There was no secret to what Arizona was doing: get to the line, call a run or a short pass, then get back to the line and do it again as fast as they could. Their pace was so frantic that they rarely used motion, doing so only 29% of the time, the lowest rate in the league. But Kingsbury didn't care about confusing the defense or giving Murray an easy pre-snap read—he just wanted his quarterback to check down to receivers underneath the coverage and make defenses execute over and over again, hoping they eventually wore down and blew an assignment or missed a tackle. It led to an aerial attack that made life frustrating for Cardinals fans, simple for defensive coordinators, and maddeningly dull for everyone else.

This scheme may work fine in college, against defenses staffed by economics majors who are squeezing a couple of hours of daily practice in between morning classes and evening studies. But this is not the Big 12. This is the NFL, where players use every waking hour to prepare for the game and defenders who beat themselves don't often make it out of training camp. If anything, it was the Cardinals making the sloppy mistakes. They were flagged for a league-high 65 offensive penalties, including 29 false starts—five more than anyone else and more than double the average team (14.1). No center had more penalties than Mason Cole, no guard had more penalties than Justin Pugh, and Kelvin Beachum and D.J. Humphries were both in the top 10 among tackles. The Cardinals were also in the top five in fumbles, including a league-high 11 loose balls in the last six weeks of the year.

This is exactly what I and many others here have been saying but it seems all the worse when people who know what they are actually talking about agree.

I wonder, has Kliff been playing this way because he wants to or is he playing this way because he doesn't feel Kyler can handle anything more complicated? I lean towards the former personally.

 

[BritCard]

Speaking of route trees...https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/cardinals-deandre-hopkins-kliff-kingsbury-01es1ftwxqsa

Link not working

 

[BritCard]

of course

but just two highlight plays off hand suggests they run it more than given credit for. The Warner vids breaking down K1 also show lots of the routes being run that FO says they dont run

another explanation is that KK didnt trust either his QB to read deeper throws against zone, or, didnt trust his o-line post K1 injury to let him hold the ball for those routes

I wouldn't call that Mesh. That was just a deep crossing route which is hardly new or revolutionary to the NFL.

Mesh is much more shallow and involves running across the face of the ILBs. Part of the concept is if it's man coverage you lose that coverage in the melee of bodies that your cover man has to get through.

We didn't use either (mesh or deep cross) very much.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Link not working

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/cardinals-deandre-hopkins-kliff-kingsbury-01es1ftwxqsa

 

[Krangodnzr]

This is exactly what I and many others here have been saying but it seems all the worse when people who know what they are actually talking about agree.

I wonder, has Kliff been playing this way because he wants to or is he playing this way because he doesn't feel Kyler can handle anything more complicated? I lean towards the former personally.

I see plenty of evidence that Murray struggles with the simple parts of QB craft....and I say this as one of Murray's biggest fans on this board!

Any Cardinals game over the past few years you watch, you'll see TONS of missed reads, Murray checking down when an open receiver streaks down the field. To discount this to blame Kliff is maddening.

Murray will get better though; he just severely lacks experience. His experience curve is where a senior in college or rookie QB is now in terms of games played.

The tempo thing really explains why Kliff doesn't run more motion in his offense.