Pick Watch 2018

[CardsSunsDbacks]

They go with regular head to head tie-breakers because they'll need to determine who gets what playoff seed. If Milwaukee lands in the 7th or 8th seed we should get their pick.

Determining draft order is actually separate. There would be a drawing to determine who gets what pick if there are any ties in the standings.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Does anyone know how/when Milwaukee vs. Miami vs. Washington will be decided if they all tie in the standings?

Here's an example from last year on random drawings for draft order:

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/04/18/ties-broken-2017-nba-draft

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Grizzlies play the Pistons today in Memphis, it's their final home game of the season. This is a winnable game for them, hopefully they can pull it out. Being their final home game of the year might up their odds just a little bit. Detroit is playing for nothing so hopefully they're basically shutdown for the year.

Grizzlies up by 6 at the half. Atlanta winning might have offered a little motivation, as they likely are settled in at second worst record even if they win today.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Grizzlies up by 10 with less than a minute left!

 

[pokerface]

Grizzlies win!


All we have to do is lose to GS today and it's DONE.

 

[GatorAZ]

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[CardsSunsDbacks]

The Grizzlies finally play Gasol for a whole game and they win. Probably only because it was the last home game of the year.

 

[Hoop Head]

The team with the worst record, and highest odds at the #1 pick, has only won the lottery 7 times in NBA history. It has happened each year for the last 3 years though. So it's typical Suns luck to get the worst record and snap that streak of the team's with the worst record getting the #1 pick.

It's happened in 1988 for the Clippers, 1990 for the Nets, 2003 for the Cavaliers, 2004 for the Magic, 2015 for the Wolves, 2016 for the Sixers, and 2017 for the Nets but the pick belonged to the Celtics.


Here's an article that reviews that up through 2016, I included the 2017 info myself.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-lottery-history-no-1-overall-pick/101752858/

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The team with the worst record, and highest odds at the #1 pick, has only won the lottery 7 times in NBA history. It has happened each year for the last 3 years though. So it's typical Suns luck to get the worst record and snap that streak of the team's with the worst record getting the #1 pick.

It's happened in 1988 for the Clippers, 1990 for the Nets, 2003 for the Cavaliers, 2004 for the Magic, 2015 for the Wolves, 2016 for the Sixers, and 2017 for the Nets but the pick belonged to the Celtics.


Here's an article that reviews that up through 2016, I included the 2017 info myself.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-lottery-history-no-1-overall-pick/101752858/

No point in looking at history when it comes to draft odds. The odds are the odds and what has happened in the past doesn't play a factor in what happens in the future.

 

[Lefty]

http://www.tankathon.com/

 

[pokerface]

The team with the worst record, and highest odds at the #1 pick, has only won the lottery 7 times in NBA history. It has happened each year for the last 3 years though. So it's typical Suns luck to get the worst record and snap that streak of the team's with the worst record getting the #1 pick.

It's happened in 1988 for the Clippers, 1990 for the Nets, 2003 for the Cavaliers, 2004 for the Magic, 2015 for the Wolves, 2016 for the Sixers, and 2017 for the Nets but the pick belonged to the Celtics.


Here's an article that reviews that up through 2016, I included the 2017 info myself.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...-lottery-history-no-1-overall-pick/101752858/

When you talk odds recent outings by other teams mean almost zero.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Thank you Griz. Now warriors, please finish the job for us and the season, in my book, has been a success. The post-season (lottery and draft selection and free agency) are a completely different effort for us.

C’MON ONE LAST LOSS! Everyone with me?!?

 

[pokerface]

Thank you Griz. Now warriors, please finish the job for us and the season, in my book, has been a success. The post-season (lottery and draft selection and free agency) are a completely different effort for us.

C’MON ONE LAST LOSS! Everyone with me?!?

Yeah our season starts after todays game.

 

[Bufalay]

When you talk odds recent outings by other teams mean almost zero.

You’re almost 100% correct.

 

[Hoop Head]

The Suns would have a 25% chance at the #1 pick, that doesn't change. However I do find it interesting that in the history of the lottery drawing the team with the best odds has only gotten the #1 pick 20% of the time.

 

[pokerface]

The Suns would have a 25% chance at the #1 pick, that doesn't change. However I do find it interesting that in the history of the lottery drawing the team with the best odds has only gotten the #1 pick 20% of the time.

Maybe we should be asking ourselves how often the worst team received a top three pick. In this draft that isn't too bad.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The team with the worst record, and highest odds at the #1 pick, has only won the lottery 7 times in NBA history.

It would be more precise to say "has only won the lottery 7 times in NBA LOTTERY history". The NBA has been around much longer than the NBA lottery. The odds are still against us but the history doesn't look quite as bad when viewed this way.

 

[pokerface]

You’re almost 100% correct.

Ok...minus "almost"...

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The Suns would have a 25% chance at the #1 pick, that doesn't change. However I do find it interesting that in the history of the lottery drawing the team with the best odds has only gotten the #1 pick 20% of the time.

Go run tankathon 30 or so times and we might win it 20 times or 2 times. It's such a small sample size that looking at the history is completely a waste of time. Go run tankathon a thousand times and I would bet we would win about 250 times.

 

[pokerface]

Go run tankathon 30 or so times and we might win it 20 times or 2 times. It's such a small sample size that looking at the history is completely a waste of time. Go run tankathon a thousand times and I would bet we would win about 250 times.

You literally would have to run it a thousand times to get a reliable read.

Good point.

 

[Errntknght]

We all know what happened in the past has no bearing on the final slots this year. But I am sure that every Suns fan with any knowledge of our past is absolutely certain that we will somehow get screwed over once again. I will take it as moral victory if the Spurs don't get knocked out of playoffs because if they did the lottery Gods wouldn't be able to
resist the biggest screwover of all time by giving the first three picks to the Lakers, Spurs and Knicks. We're sort of resigned to picking fourth but those three teams leapfrogging us would be gratuitous nastiness.

 

[pokerface]

We all know what happened in the past has no bearing on the final slots this year. But I am sure that every Suns fan with any knowledge of our past is absolutely certain that we will somehow get screwed over once again. I will take it as moral victory if the Spurs don't get knocked out of playoffs because if they did the lottery Gods wouldn't be able to
resist the biggest screwover of all time by giving the first three picks to the Lakers, Spurs and Knicks. We're sort of resigned to picking fourth but those three teams leapfrogging us would be gratuitous nastiness.

 

[pokerface]

I'm just telling myself we get top 3....It's 64.2% chance. It's far from a lock but significantly better than 50%.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

We all know what happened in the past has no bearing on the final slots this year. But I am sure that every Suns fan with any knowledge of our past is absolutely certain that we will somehow get screwed over once again. I will take it as moral victory if the Spurs don't get knocked out of playoffs because if they did the lottery Gods wouldn't be able to
resist the biggest screwover of all time by giving the first three picks to the Lakers, Spurs and Knicks. We're sort of resigned to picking fourth but those three teams leapfrogging us would be gratuitous nastiness.

It wouldn't be bad luck at all if we draft 3rd or 4th though. Combined the odds are higher for us to draft at one of those spots. We just have best odds for #1 and have guaranteed that we won't fall any further than #4. If we don't get the #1 pick it simply means we didn't get lucky and not that we were unlucky or cursed or the draft gods are against us or any other reason anyone can come up with.

 

[pokerface]

Hey at #4 we'd get our choice of Porter, Jackson, Young, and Bamba.


That's not too shabby.