Pro Football Focus diagnoses Kevin Kolb

[Duckjake]

Yet you're taking as gospel a guy who takes a small sample of stats to skew them any way he sees fit.Every NFL person I have heard has nothing but good things to say about Kolb.

Bottom line is, none of us know how Kolb will perform. Everyone is balking at giving up a #1 for him, yet look at last 10 years of Cards drafts and, other than Fitz, and there is nothing special(jury still out on DRC/Wells/Williams). And that's with the Cards drafting in the top 10 almost every year. There's no doubt I'd take a chance on a young guy who has had success in the league. If he fails, so what. You have to take risks. The Cards could just as easily draft another Wendell Bryant next year if they save the pick.

The choices haven't been that bad. We've been over this before. Thomas Jones rushed for 10,000 yards. If there is a season BIG will be in his 11th as an NFL starter. Calvin Pace continues to start for the Jets. BJohnson is still in the NFL. Antrel Rolle starts for the Giants. All of our first round picks since 2000 except for Wendall Bryant could still be playing for us.

The problem has been getting them to perform for us or letting them go just as they hit their prime and replacing them with older veterans who we only keep for a year or two.

One of those guys we couldn't get to perform for us was a 1st round QB. And its the reason we are in this mess today. So the what is another long run of 5-11, 7-9, 5-11 seasons.

At least we no longer sign guys who immediately grow 10 thumbs and two left feet.

 

[BigRedRage]

kolb is an unproven and the asking price within trade and contract are outrageous, UI have 0 interest. Of course if hes here I will root him on but I dont see him as an improvement over Skelton.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

The choices haven't been that bad. We've been over this before. Thomas Jones rushed for 10,000 yards. If there is a season BIG will be in his 11th as an NFL starter. Calvin Pace continues to start for the Jets. BJohnson is still in the NFL. Antrel Rolle starts for the Giants. All of our first round picks since 2000 except for Wendall Bryant could still be playing for us.

The problem has been getting them to perform for us or letting them go just as they hit their prime and replacing them with older veterans who we only keep for a year or two.

One of those guys we couldn't get to perform for us was a 1st round QB. And its the reason we are in this mess today. So the what is another long run of 5-11, 7-9, 5-11 seasons.

At least we no longer sign guys who immediately grow 10 thumbs and two left feet.

I agree with you. I was talking about production the Cards got out of most of their 1st rounders.

 

[JeffGollin]

kolb is an unproven and the asking price within trade and contract are outrageous, UI have 0 interest. Of course if hes here I will root him on but I dont see him as an improvement over Skelton.

I agree, and the PFF article pretty much underscores my concerns about Kolb.

But I don't think you can make apples-to-apples comparisons between Kolb and Skelton.

Kolb is more of a compact, quick-thinking Max Hall-type dump-off QB groomed to execute Andy Reid's West Coast rhythm passing attack. Skelton is a bigger, stronger-armed QB more suited for the Cardinal play-action vertical attack.

Not to say that Skelton doesn't still have a way to go before he could be trusted to win more games than he loses.

But the thing about Kolb is that I'm leery of stating unequivocally right now that he'd be an absolute bust (because I may have to root for him if we actually sign him).

 

[Totally_Red]

If he plays like Schaub does, then he is easily worth a 1st round pick. That's like using Drew Brees's value as a 2nd rounder because that's where he was drafted. They both have performed above their perceived value at the time.

That's the 64-thousand dollar question. If he doesn't, then he's not. And if he doesn't, that means the gamble is doubly devastating, because the Cardinals would be giving up a higher first-rounder.

I'm not convinced that the Eagles would trade him if they really think he's a top 15 quarterback. And I'm not convinced the Cardinals can win in an improving NFC West if he's less than that, especially if they trade away a first round draft pick.

But Charley Casserly is a pretty good talent evaluator. But then you have this Football Focus evaluation........

 

[Mulli]

I agree, and the PFF article pretty much underscores my concerns about Kolb.

But I don't think you can make apples-to-apples comparisons between Kolb and Skelton.

Kolb is more of a compact, quick-thinking Max Hall-type dump-off QB groomed to execute Andy Reid's West Coast rhythm passing attack. Skelton is a bigger, stronger-armed QB more suited for the Cardinal play-action vertical attack.

Not to say that Skelton doesn't still have a way to go before he could be trusted to win more games than he loses.

But the thing about Kolb is that I'm leery of stating unequivocally right now that he'd be an absolute bust (because I may have to root for him if we actually sign him).

Did you watch the highlights from the 9ers and Falcons' game last year. Max Hall could never do that.

 

[JeffGollin]

Did you watch the highlights from the 9ers and Falcons' game last year. Max Hall could never do that.

I was referring to style/not execution.

 

[Mulli]

I was referring to style/not execution.

I know. Kolb didn't really dink/dunk exclusively in that game.

 

[Duckjake]

Did you watch the highlights from the 9ers and Falcons' game last year. Max Hall could never do that.

Yessir it is really hard to throw for 300 yards lying flat on your back or on the sidelines with 3 bruised ribs and a concussion. If the Cards like Hall so much give him a job in the Front Office before he gets permanently injured trying to be an NFL football player. And no there isn't anyway anyone can bulk him up. Some guys are just harder to knock down than others. It's why there is always some 5'6" 135lb guy on your HS team who just knocks the snot out of people while another guy 5'10"185 can't move a gnat.

 

[Mulli]

Yessir it is really hard to throw for 300 yards lying flat on your back or on the sidelines with 3 bruised ribs and a concussion. If the Cards like Hall so much give him a job in the Front Office before he gets permanently injured trying to be an NFL football player. And no there isn't anyway anyone can bulk him up. Some guys are just harder to knock down than others. It's why there is always some 5'6" 135lb guy on your HS team who just knocks the snot out of people while another guy 5'10"185 can't move a gnat.

Kurt Warner did it! People convinced me Max Hall had what it took last season. Won't happen again.

 

[Duckjake]

Kurt Warner did it! People convinced me Max Hall had what it took last season. Won't happen again.

Warner didn't do it! His sack % 2007-2009 was around 4.3%. Max Hall's sack % was over 15%! If Hall had thrown the ball as much as Warner did in 2008-2009 Hall would have been sacked 170 times!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mulli]

Warner didn't do it! His sack % 2007-2009 was around 4.3%. Max Hall's sack % was over 15%! If Hall had thrown the ball as much as Warner did in 2008-2009 Hall would have been sacked 170 times!!!!!!!!!!

He didn't listen when I yelled "Get rid of it" like Warner usually seemed to. It took him too long to jump up and see over the line before he could throw it.

 

[AZCARDSFANATIC]

If Fitz says he would like Kolb and it's enough to keep him in AZ, that's good enough for me. I'll take his opinion over all you arm chair analysts every day of the week.

Ok put this in context, Fitz has at some point stated he wouldn't mind playing with almost every QB mentioned in free agency. This just happened to be a article about Kolb. What's he supposed to say "This guy sucks, I have no desire to ever catch a pass from him". Honestly Fitz probably has some say in which free agent we sign, but it will not be something taken from the media. It will be him sitting with Whis and Graves and hashing it out.

 

[Dayman]

An analysis of the current version of Carson Palmer from NFL Films' Greg Cosell.

@gregcosell Greg Cosell
More Palmer. Based on film study arm strength has decreased since injury. Not the same passer he was. Can't drive ball + make stick throws.

6 hours ago via web

And Rotoworld's take.

Palmer's passes have been fluttering since he tore ligaments and tendons in his throwing arm three years ago. Cosell would've ranked Palmer behind only Peyton Manning and Tom Brady from 2005-2007. If owner Mike Brown were smart, he'd sell high on Palmer while it's still possible.

All of the QBs rumored to be available have risks attached. That's why they're available. And there will be similar risks involved if the Cards take a QB with their first round pick next year, assuming that QB isn't Andrew Luck.

I think Kolb's the best risk/reward option out there. Others obviously don't. But you can look at stats from Orton, Palmer, Kolb, Bulger, etc and find things not to like about any of them. PFF breaking down every Kolb throw into subjective categories like "very good" and "extremely bad" isn't exactly the most accurate rating system.

Also, in a previous article, the same writer ranked Justin Smith as the second best player in the NFL last season. Tom Brady was #33. Matt Ryan was his second best QB and #8 overall. Analyzing stats can get crazy sometimes.

 

[TJ]

An analysis of the current version of Carson Palmer from NFL Films' Greg Cosell.
And Rotoworld's take.
All of the QBs rumored to be available have risks attached. That's why they're available. And there will be similar risks involved if the Cards take a QB with their first round pick next year, assuming that QB isn't Andrew Luck.

I think Kolb's the best risk/reward option out there. Others obviously don't. But you can look at stats from Orton, Palmer, Kolb, Bulger, etc and find things not to like about any of them. PFF breaking down every Kolb throw into subjective categories like "very good" and "extremely bad" isn't exactly the most accurate rating system.

Also, in a previous article, the same writer ranked Justin Smith as the second best player in the NFL last season. Tom Brady was #33. Matt Ryan was his second best QB and #8 overall. Analyzing stats can get crazy sometimes.

Bingo!

In a perfect world, I'd take Palmer; however, with devastating elbow and knee injuries, his production and durability have decreased. Factor in age and you don't have a long-term solution.

And for those who are in the Orton camp, you must ask yourself why he is constantly trying (and sometimes successfully) to be replaced by others; more particularly reaching far to draft Tebow in the 1st round in 2010. It has become a trend and what's to say it wont happen with us down the road? For example, trying to relieve him for Skelton, drafting another QB early in the draft or getting another high end FA.

Like you said, the risk/reward for Kolb is high, but the chance to have the position solidified for years to come with talent cannot be overlooked. Let's face it. We have had only two QBs of mention do anything for this franchise in 20 years: Plummer and Warner. And Plummer by all intents and purposes was not a great but good QB. At least Warner made (and started in) a pro bowl as a Cardinal.

A move for Kolb is a risk, but it's a risk worth taking IMO.

 

[ARodg]

A move for Kolb is a risk, but it's a risk worth taking IMO.

Why?

Did you even read the evaluation?

He can't throw deep, he can't throw medium, and he's only average throwing short. He also can't run.

Why is he worth a 1st round pick?

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Why?

Did you even read the evaluation?

He can't throw deep, he can't throw medium, and he's only average throwing short. He also can't run.

Why is he worth a 1st round pick?

So you're basing KK's whole potential career on the analysis of a guy who had Tom Brady as the #33 player in the league and Justin Smith #2? Or were you just joking?

 

[TJ]

Why?

Did you even read the evaluation?

He can't throw deep, he can't throw medium, and he's only average throwing short. He also can't run.

Why is he worth a 1st round pick?

First off, the evaluation is garbage. If one feels Tom Brady is #33, then they're either a Jets fan or can't tell the difference between a football and a hockey puck.

Second, have you watched him play? He can make ALL of the throws. That assessment is so far from the truth, it's comical. His career completion % is 61% (in spot duty and spot starts, mind you). If he cannot make long and medium passes and is average at short range passes, this number would be SIGNIFICANTLY lower. And he's not a dink and dunker like Trent Edwards and Matt Leinart. He is aggressive, which is what I love about him.

The debate is not his talents but what his true worth is. I would rather not give up a first, but sometimes, those are the risks a franchise should take when trying to solidify the most important position on the field. Of all the available QBs, he gives us the best chance at short and long-term success. All of the others are either average, prone to injury or past their prime.

 

[moklerman]

If Fitz says he would like Kolb and it's enough to keep him in AZ, that's good enough for me. I'll take his opinion over all you arm chair analysts every day of the week.

Isn't that why the Cardinals are in this mess to begin with? I thought it was Fitz who put in a bad word with Whis about Leinart(after Fitz hurt his knee on a pass from Leinart in the preseason)?

 

[moklerman]

All of the others are either average, prone to injury or past their prime.

Doesn't that describe Kolb so far?

 

[TJ]

Doesn't that describe Kolb so far?

Not particularly. I would say effective with a high ceiling. Kolb had a concussion Week 1 last season and recovered two weeks later. Unfortunately for him, the Vick Experience v 2.0 came to life.

Injury prone would define Carson Palmer, who suffered significant elbow and knee injuries, which have diminished his performance.

Average would describe Young and Orton.

I know you want a broader scope to analyze, but with the small sample size given and passing the eye test, he looks the part of a guy who can anchor the position.

And "so far..." can also mean he has the potential moving forward, if you stick to your assertion that he's average. Injury prone is a bit premature.

 

[lobo]

Many of us??

It's funny you mention that because recently, I sent a mass text message to all of my friends who are Cards fans (I was bored waiting at the car wash) and asked who they wanted at QB next season. Each and everyone responded with Kolb.

Good!! You have smart friends TJ. I rarely read the tripe others write...I have a good set of eyes, a good head and have been watching pro football since 1959 and a Chicago Cardinal fan since then. Some people must think that all the guys who should know something are really stupid, eh? That's why there will be a mad rush to sign Kolb. I read some comment written by someone about the less than adequate receivers Cinci had...oh really??? If I had "meet and greets" with some our resident experts I might be a bit more colorful albeit I am not signing the checks and those who want someone else seem to act like they are. Let's (so to speak) go out and get 'em. The guy comes from just about the finest coaching tree/front office tree in the game but I guess that don't count.

 

[ARodg]

First off, the evaluation is garbage. If one feels Tom Brady is #33, then they're either a Jets fan or can't tell the difference between a football and a hockey puck.

Second, have you watched him play? He can make ALL of the throws. That assessment is so far from the truth, it's comical. His career completion % is 61% (in spot duty and spot starts, mind you). If he cannot make long and medium passes and is average at short range passes, this number would be SIGNIFICANTLY lower. And he's not a dink and dunker like Trent Edwards and Matt Leinart. He is aggressive, which is what I love about him.

The debate is not his talents but what his true worth is. I would rather not give up a first, but sometimes, those are the risks a franchise should take when trying to solidify the most important position on the field. Of all the available QBs, he gives us the best chance at short and long-term success. All of the others are either average, prone to injury or past their prime.

First, how is the evaluation garbage? Those were his stats throwing deep and medium. It's not a subjective thing.

Second, Aggresive, is usually code for, throws a lot of interceptions.

Third, you bet your ass the debate is on his talents. If he was an obvious probowler, I would have no issue giving up a 1st rounder. The issue is that he's been a below average quarterback his entire career.

Fourth, you complain the other options are average and prone to injury. What the hell is Kolb?

Fifth, you say he's not a dink and dunk QB like Trent Edwards and Matt Leinart. I'll give you the Yards per Completion and the Yards per Attempt of Leinart, Edwards and Kolb. You can tell me which one is which

Player A:
6.5 Yards per Attempt.
10.7 Yards per Completion.
60.5% Completion Percentage.

Player B:
6.5 Yards per Attempt.
10.7 Yards per Completion.
60.8% Completion Percentage.

Player C:
6.5 Yards per Attempt
11.5 Yards per Completion
57.1% Completion Percentage.

Tell me which one is Kolb and which one is Edwards and Leinart. Then tell me how Kolb is any different than the two guys you mentioned.

 

[moklerman]

And "so far..." can also mean he has the potential moving forward, if you stick to your assertion that he's average. Injury prone is a bit premature.

Every QB has potential when they are still surrounded by unknowns because of a lack of playing time.

But we are talking about a QB who had a concussion last year on a very run of the mill tackle. A QB who's numbers...in a VERY QB friendly system mind you, have been pretty mediocre.

As far as specifics, we're also talking about a QB who has spent his entire pro career being groomed for and supposedly suited to a WCO.

Now, does a QB that's had his eggs scrambled recently, who didn't exactly seize his opportunity as "the guy" and who's been in a completely different system than what the Cardinals run...AND will cost a high price to get and still not be much more of a secure choice than a college QB seem like a good move?

Up to this point, he seems very much like a system QB who hasn't run the system real well. I mean, his high ceiling is based on a couple of high points with a pretty good team around him, right? Would you give Brady Quinn that same type of latitude and broad vision? He's had just as many...or more good games in his short career as Kolb has and he did it with a far worse team.

 

[kerouac9]

Just because Kolb has the most potential among this group of QBs to be a long-term answer, does that mean you mortgage the future for him (especially if it's giving up a first-plus)?

If Orton, Kolb, or Bulger are going to win you the NFCW (and I think that all could), what is the argument for taking Kolb minus a first-round pick (plus?) instead of Orton minus a third, but plus--say, Nick Foles next year or finding out if John Skelton can play?

I'd take Kolb for a contract above Matt Cassel's and two second-rounders. That's a deal that I'd make, because you can still turn your back on Kolb in two years if he doesn't work out. But Coach Ken Whisenhunt hasn't shown that he can win without a hall of fame quarterback under center for him. I'd rather make sure that we have a coach that we can live with for another five years and give him a product of known value like Orton or Bulger than stick an unknown coach like Whis with an unknown talent like Kolb ("I swear, he's good" just doesn't win me over--same people said the same thing about Max Hall) and committing to them both for the long-term.