Pro Football Focus diagnoses Kevin Kolb

[moklerman]

I'd take Kolb for a contract above Matt Cassel's and two second-rounders.

With the Pioli connection in KC though, that move made sense. What "sense" does Kolb going to the Cardinals make other than they're desperate for a QB?

 

[TJ]

First, how is the evaluation garbage? Those were his stats throwing deep and medium. It's not a subjective thing.

This is an evaluation that is only created by someone who doesnt understand the physical game (hence, J. Smith #2 and Brady #33) and only believed to be credible by someone on a fishing expedition looking for a reason to bash Kolb.

Second, Aggresive, is usually code for, throws a lot of interceptions.

It is? Would agree with me that Peyton is aggressive? Brady? Brees? Your boy Rodgers? Warner? Vick? Rivers? Favre? Schaub?

All of whom are aggressive and put points on the board. This is a trait that almost seems like a prerequisite to being a skilled QB.

Third, you bet your ass the debate is on his talents. If he was an obvious probowler, I would have no issue giving up a 1st rounder. The issue is that he's been a below average quarterback his entire career.

But he isn't and no credible team is going to give up a perennial pro bowl QB, so you go with what the market has to offer. The debate is how much do you pay for a guy who has a small window proven success, but believe is going to a) improve and b) hold the fort down for years to come.

Fourth, you complain the other options are average and prone to injury. What the hell is Kolb?

High ceiling and not injury prone. One concussion and he recovered very quickly afterward.

Fifth, you say he's not a dink and dunk QB like Trent Edwards and Matt Leinart. I'll give you the Yards per Completion and the Yards per Attempt of Leinart, Edwards and Kolb. You can tell me which one is which

Player A:
6.5 Yards per Attempt.
10.7 Yards per Completion.
60.5% Completion Percentage.

Player B:
6.5 Yards per Attempt.
10.7 Yards per Completion.
60.8% Completion Percentage.

Player C:
6.5 Yards per Attempt
11.5 Yards per Completion
57.1% Completion Percentage.

Tell me which one is Kolb and which one is Edwards and Leinart. Then tell me how Kolb is any different than the two guys you mentioned.

A is Edwards, B is Kolb and C is Leinart. Didnt even have to research.

A and C have lower completion %s, throw mainly short outs and screens and play scared. B has a higher completion % than the other two and is not afraid to go down field. So while being more aggressive, he can complete a higher # of passes.

The issue is fans want (and need for their sanity) a guarantee on their investment, I'll tell you it's the teams who arent afraid to take calculated risks that have success.

Additionally, you evaluate as if he cannot improve. He has shown in a small window he is capable of putting up yards and TDs (mainly as a spot starter and in mop up duty). What's to say in a pass happy offense in AZ, which he had in PHI, that he cannot improve; especially with a receive like Fitz on the payroll?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Every QB has potential when they are still surrounded by unknowns because of a lack of playing time.

But we are talking about a QB who had a concussion last year on a very run of the mill tackle. A QB who's numbers...in a VERY QB friendly system mind you, have been pretty mediocre.

As far as specifics, we're also talking about a QB who has spent his entire pro career being groomed for and supposedly suited to a WCO.

Now, does a QB that's had his eggs scrambled recently, who didn't exactly seize his opportunity as "the guy" and who's been in a completely different system than what the Cardinals run...AND will cost a high price to get and still not be much more of a secure choice than a college QB seem like a good move?

Up to this point, he seems very much like a system QB who hasn't run the system real well. I mean, his high ceiling is based on a couple of high points with a pretty good team around him, right? Would you give Brady Quinn that same type of latitude and broad vision? He's had just as many...or more good games in his short career as Kolb has and he did it with a far worse team.

Agree with all of this. Desperation is fueling irrational hope at this point. Giving up a first rounder (plus?) and a giant contract for a qb that has no guarantee of being a top 10-12 player is a huge risk.

 

[kerouac9]

With the Pioli connection in KC though, that move made sense. What "sense" does Kolb going to the Cardinals make other than they're desperate for a QB?

The Pats gave up less in draft pick compensation for Cassell than the Texans did for Schaub, but gave up more on a contract extension. But Haley and his offensive staff didn't have any more experience with Cassell than Whis does with Kolb, so I think it's a wash there.

I guess what I'm willing to give up an extra second round pick for is the assurance that Kevin Kolb isn't Derek Anderson/Max Hall bad. Kevin Kolb can clearly play in the NFL, and I think he'll be better than the guys drafted after Newton and Gabbert in this previous draft class. The money is kind of a secondary matter if the draft pick commitment isn't so great. As I said, I think that a Top 20 NFL-level quarterback can win the NFC West (heck, two bottom-15 QBs were dukeing it out to see who would win the division in Week 17 this year).

 

[ARodg]

This is an evaluation that is only created by someone who doesnt understand the physical game (hence, J. Smith #2 and Brady #33) and only believed to be credible by someone on a fishing expedition looking for a reason to bash Kolb.

It is? Would agree with me that Peyton is aggressive? Brady? Brees? Your boy Rodgers? Warner? Vick? Rivers? Favre? Schaub?

All of whom are aggressive and put points on the board. This is a trait that almost seems like a prerequisite to being a skilled QB.



But he isn't and no credible team is going to give up a perennial pro bowl QB, so you go with what the market has to offer. The debate is how much do you pay for a guy who has a small window proven success, but believe is going to a) improve and b) hold the fort down for years to come.



High ceiling and not injury prone. One concussion and he recovered very quickly afterward.



A is Edwards, B is Kolb and C is Leinart. Didnt even have to research.

A and C have lower completion %s, throw mainly short outs and screens and play scared. B has a higher completion % than the other two and is not afraid to go down field. So while being more aggressive, he can complete a higher # of passes.

The issue is fans want (and need for their sanity) a guarantee on their investment, I'll tell you it's the teams who arent afraid to take calculated risks that have success.

Additionally, you evaluate as if he cannot improve. He has shown in a small window he is capable of putting up yards and TDs (mainly as a spot starter and in mop up duty). What's to say in a pass happy offense in AZ, which he had in PHI, that he cannot improve; especially with a receive like Fitz on the payroll?

1: His numbers on mid and deep passes aren't subjective based on the guys analysis. Kolb sucked in those two areas. It's not debatable. He did. He was god awful. One of the worst in the league.

2: Hell no most of those guys aren't aggresive. The only two that are really agressive are Favre and Vick.

Vick's a completely different player because of his ability to run.

Favre was aggresive but he also threw a ton of INTs. He made up for it by being one of the most physically gifted QBs of all time. Kolb isn't, not even close.

3: What Proven Success?

- He had a 3-4 record as a starter.
- He had a 97 PRI (average is 100)
- He has a QB Rating of 73.2

There isn't a single advanced stat that he's better than average.

4: What high ceiling?

Also, the fact that he missed at least one game, maybe two or three, in seven career stats, is not evidence that he isn't injury prone. In fact it's evidence to the contrary.

5: The numbers are almost identical. The difference between him and Trent Edwards is 00.3% on their completion percentages. Same yards per Attempt. Same yards per Completion.

But lets continue the comparisons:

QB Rating:

Player A: 75.4
Player B: 73.2

Int %:

Player A: 3.2
Player B: 4.4

Sack %:

Player A: 6.9
Player B: 5.9

So he's very similar to Trent Edwards. Better at some stuff. Worse at others.

Anybody want to spend a 1st rounder on Trent Edwards?

Please raise your hand high so everybody can see it.

 

[TJ]

2: Hell no most of those guys aren't aggresive. The only two that are really agressive are Favre and Vick.

Stopped reading after this because it doesnt sound like you have very good grasp of the quarterback position.

So Peyton throwing into tight windows isnt aggressive? Brady and Brees throwing deep balls isnt aggressive? That's beyond silly.

 

[Cheesebeef]

we really need the lockout to be over.

 

[ARodg]

Stopped reading after this because it doesnt sound like you have very good grasp of the quarterback position.

So Peyton throwing into tight windows isnt aggressive? Brady and Brees throwing deep balls isnt aggressive? That's beyond silly.

Being aggresive is making high risk throws.

Look at their career INT%

Manning: 2.7
Brady: 2.2
Rodgers: 2.0

Kolb: 4.4

Massive difference

If Kolb had as many attempts as each of these players he'd have the corresponding number of INTs:


Rodgers: 19
Brady: 20
Manning: 27

Actual

Rodgers: 11
Brady: 4
Manning: 17

And that's with Manning having his worst year of his career.

--------------------------------------------------

But I assume you mean making deeper throws so let's take a look.

Y/A

Rodgers: 8.3
Brady: 9
Manning: 7.6

Kolb: 6.5
Trent Edwards: 6.5

Y/C

Rodgers: 12.6
Brady: 12
Manning: 11.7

Kolb: 10.7
Trent Edwards: 10.7

Looking a lot more like Captain Checkdown than your "aggresive" QBs.

 

[TJ]

Being aggresive is making high risk throws.

Look at their career INT%

Manning: 2.7
Brady: 2.2
Rodgers: 2.0

Kolb: 4.4

Massive difference

If Kolb had as many attempts as each of these players he'd have the corresponding number of INTs:


Rodgers: 19
Brady: 20
Manning: 27

Actual

Rodgers: 11
Brady: 4
Manning: 17

And that's with Manning having his worst year of his career.

--------------------------------------------------

But I assume you mean making deeper throws so let's take a look.

Y/A

Rodgers: 8.3
Brady: 9
Manning: 7.6

Kolb: 6.5
Trent Edwards: 6.5

Y/C

Rodgers: 12.6
Brady: 12
Manning: 11.7

Kolb: 10.7
Trent Edwards: 10.7

Looking a lot more like Captain Checkdown than your "aggresive" QBs.

So since you are now obsessed with Trent Edwards, why don't you go poll 1,000 football scouts and ask them if they'd rather have Edwards or Kolb behind center.

Before you go out there, what do think the result would be?

 

[Dayman]

Nobody knows what's required to get Kolb. All we've heard is a bunch of media speculation. As the lockout continues, you would think the price tag would go down. I doubt anyone will offer a first round pick if the offseason doesn't start until August. Two second rounders might even be high, considering he's a free agent next year.

Third, you bet your ass the debate is on his talents. If he was an obvious probowler, I would have no issue giving up a 1st rounder. The issue is that he's been a below average quarterback his entire career.

If Kolb was a pro bowler, he would cost a lot more than a first rounder. Cutler went for two firsts, a second and a serviceable starting QB.

Kolb's entire career also consists of 7 starts. It's kind of futile to judge the guy based on his current stats.

 

[ARodg]

So since you are now obsessed with Trent Edwards, why don't you go poll 1,000 football scouts and ask them if they'd rather have Edwards or Kolb behind center.

Before you go out there, what do think the result would be?

Obviously everyone would say they want Kolb. and for the record you said that Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb are completely opposite players. The issue is that you're wrong.

Horrible argument though because Edwards is a known failure. Kolb at least has a chance to not be a failure. The fact that he looks like he will be a failure, has no bearing on that discussion.

How about a more relevant discussion then. Go out and ask every GM what they'd rather have, the #5 pick or Kevin Kolb.

Before you go though, what do you think the result would be?

 

[TJ]

Nobody knows what's required to get Kolb. All we've heard is a bunch of media speculation. As the lockout continues, you would think the price tag would go down. I doubt anyone will offer a first round pick if the offseason doesn't start until August. Two second rounders might even be high, considering he's a free agent next year.

If Kolb was a pro bowler, he would cost a lot more than a first rounder. Cutler went for two firsts, a second and a serviceable starting QB.

Kolb's entire career also consists of 7 starts. It's kind of futile to judge the guy based on his current stats.

Exactly. Through this statistical tirade that ARodg is trying to seduce us with, it gets ignored that there is only a small sample size to judge him with. A statistical argument holds little water in this case

 

[ARodg]

Nobody knows what's required to get Kolb. All we've heard is a bunch of media speculation. As the lockout continues, you would think the price tag would go down. I doubt anyone will offer a first round pick if the offseason doesn't start until August. Two second rounders might even be high, considering he's a free agent next year.

If Kolb was a pro bowler, he would cost a lot more than a first rounder. Cutler went for two firsts, a second and a serviceable starting QB.

Kolb's entire career also consists of 7 starts. It's kind of futile to judge the guy based on his current stats.

How the hell should I judge him then?

If I can't use his starts, he's just another bench QB.

Nobody in their right mind would trade a 1st rounder for Matt Flynn, and he actually played well in his start.

 

[Dayman]

How the hell should I judge him then?

If I can't use his starts, he's just another bench QB.

Nobody in their right mind would trade a 1st rounder for Matt Flynn, and he actually played well in his start.

I said you can't judge him off his current stats, not starts. And if you want to judge him by the stats in his starts, you would see that his rating in those games is 81.8. In his four game stint as a starter filling in for Vick last year, it was 87.5.

 

[ARodg]

I said you can't judge him off his current stats, not starts. And if you want to judge him by the stats in his starts, you would see that his rating in those games is 81.8. In his four game stint as a starter filling in for Vick last year, it was 87.5.

He started 5 games this year and had a QB rating of 76

He started 2 games last year and had a QB rating of 88

I'll take either the bigger and more recent sample, or the total. Neither are flattering.

 

[Cardiac]

Stats have their place and are a tool to help assess a players ability and impact in a game. They are like the combine in that they can move a player up on down in the draft but every GM and Coach and Scout all say they use the tape as their final assessment.

Let's see the same stats on Peyton and Rothlisburger and Rivers in their 1st 7 starts or so. Even then it's still just stats and they are still a tool to be used but not the final and best way to assess a player.

 

[HoodieBets]

He started 5 games this year and had a QB rating of 76

He started 2 games last year and had a QB rating of 88

I'll take either the bigger and more recent sample, or the total. Neither are flattering.

O so you mean the amount that suits your arguement and not the most recent amount, gotcha

 

[kerouac9]

Stats have their place and are a tool to help assess a players ability and impact in a game. They are like the combine in that they can move a player up on down in the draft but every GM and Coach and Scout all say they use the tape as their final assessment.

Let's see the same stats on Peyton and Rothlisburger and Rivers in their 1st 7 starts or so. Even then it's still just stats and they are still a tool to be used but not the final and best way to assess a player.

Are you sure that's the game you want to play? Manning and Roethliberger both started as rookies, so the most apt comparison is Rivers, who didn't start until his third season in the NFL playing behind a solid starter (at the time) in Drew Brees.

Rivers' first seven starts: 124 of 187 for 1330 yards, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 7.11 YPA, 96.3 QB rating.

Clearly, Kolb is not Phillip Rivers. What about Schaub's first 7 starts?

Rookie year (2004): 1 start; 17 of 41 for 188 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 4.6 YPA, 35.4 QB rating.
2nd year (2005): 1 start; 18 of 34 for 298 yards, 3 TD, 0 INTs, 8.8 YPA, 112.1 QB rating.
4th year (2006 - 1st 5 games with HOU): 111 of 157 for 1299 yards, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, 8.27 YPA 95.47 QB rating

Total those first seven games scattered over four seasons and you have 146 of 232 for 1785 yards, 10 TDs, 7 INTs, 7.7 YPA, 88.4 QB rating.

So no statistical analysis places Kolb even close to these other two guys.

 

[Pariah]

I think you need to look at guys like Hasselbeck, Schaub and Delholmme BEFORE they were traded. I don't think any of them had much of a body of regular-season NFL work to draw a conclusion from, lending credence to the position that teams are evaluating more than just in-game situations.

 

[kerouac9]

Just one more while I have the QB rating calculator open: Matt Cassel's first seven starts:

143 of 215 for 1414 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs, 6.57 YPA, 80.64 QB rating

Basically, Kevin Kolb is inferior to all three of these players (can't really blame him for Rivers, who is the best pure QB since Dan Marino, IMO), but his apologists claim that because he put on a clinic against the 22nd-ranked pass defense in Kansas City two years ago and Atlanta's 22nd-ranked pass defense this year that he's the second coming of Kurt Warner.

It's weird that many of Kolb's critics will still admit that the guy has some promise in a lot of areas, but his defenders insist that there are no warts on the guy at all and that they're baffled that people don't think he's the second coming.

 

[kerouac9]

I think you need to look at guys like Hasselbeck, Schaub and Delholmme BEFORE they were traded. I don't think any of them had much of a body of regular-season NFL work to draw a conclusion from, lending credence to the position that teams are evaluating more than just in-game situations.

What were Hasselback and Delhomme traded for, Pariah? I don't think that Kolb is a bad player; my concern is that the price tag is too high for him.

 

[Mulli]

Just one more while I have the QB rating calculator open: Matt Cassel's first seven starts:

143 of 215 for 1414 yards, 6 TDs, 7 INTs, 6.57 YPA, 80.64 QB rating

Basically, Kevin Kolb is inferior to all three of these players (can't really blame him for Rivers, who is the best pure QB since Dan Marino, IMO), but his apologists claim that because he put on a clinic against the 22nd-ranked pass defense in Kansas City two years ago and Atlanta's 22nd-ranked pass defense this year that he's the second coming of Kurt Warner.

It's weird that many of Kolb's critics will still admit that the guy has some promise in a lot of areas, but his defenders insist that there are no warts on the guy at all and that they're baffled that people don't think he's the second coming.

Not the case with me. Just think he can be solid.

 

[john h]

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/13/kevin-kolb-schaub-like-or-feeley-ish/

One of the best football sites on the web really doesn't like Kolb.

*If you're not aware, this guy is one of the best. He watches every play from every game and gives each player a grade. He comes up with some odd stuff occassionally, but 99% of the time he's the best.

This just validates what my thoughts have been from the get go.

 

[john h]

If Fitz says he would like Kolb and it's enough to keep him in AZ, that's good enough for me. I'll take his opinion over all you arm chair analysts every day of the week.

Are you not an arm chair analysts like the rest of us? I have some friends who I think are football idiots. Maybe you do also? The more I read about Kolb the less I like him. I would be totally stunned if the Cards fall for all the Kolb hype.

 

[kerouac9]

Not the case with me. Just think he can be solid.

And so do I, honestly. But do you want to give up a first-round pick (plus?) for a guy you think can be solid? That's my main issue, as I said. The problem with Kevin Kolb isn't the prospect; it's the cost to get him.

I think that you can get almost identical production from Marc Bulger or Kyle Orton in 2011 as you'd get from Kevin Kolb. The question is whether the security of knowing that you have a quarterback through 2016 (or so) is worth giving up a first-round pick (plus?) for as well as a mid-eight-figure contract.