Rebounding - Suns Primary Challenge

[azirish]

The Suns are going to need to focus on improving their rebounding this season. Losing Kurt Thomas will remove 5.7 rpg from a team that was already a net -2.3 rpg down.

Even with KT, the Suns were not a very good rebounding team. Last season they ranked #24 in net rebounding differential just behind Washington. Of playoff teams, only Toronto and Golden State ranked lower than the Suns. Only three of the top ten net rebounding teams did not make the playoffs: Knicks, Hornets, and Clippers.

None of this is new for the Suns. It is notable that the other poor rebounding playoff teams are also running teams. Releasing on the break reduces the number players staying back for the rebounds.

On the plus side, bad shooting teams tend to rebound more because they have more chances to get offensive rebounds. Two good examples are Houston which ranked 5th worst in shooting (44.5%) and 4th best in rebounding at 43.32 rpg. Cleveland was 7th in shooting at 44.7% and second in rebounding at 43.51 rpg.

Still, it is hard to win championships without good rebounding. In the final 8, only the Suns and Warriors had significantly negitive net rebounding numbers for the regular season.

Spurs +1.58
Cavs +3.65
Jazz +5.48
Pistons -0.65

Suns -2.52
Warriors -5.01
Bulls +2.78
Nets -0.56

Total emphasis on rebounding is not necesssary. The Spurs ranked only 10th in net rebounding during the regular season and actually were net -0.10 in the playoffs. But teams need to be competative on the boards and the Suns were not.

It is tempting to focus strictly on getting another big man to replace Kurt Thomas. That should help, but the bigger issue is going to be for the Suns as a team put more focus on rebounding. Everybody has to scramble for the ball.

None the less, to compete the Suns will have see improvements by Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and Boris Diaw. Last season KT averaged 0.31 rebounds per minute while doing a very good job of blocking out, so there is a lot to make up for.

Last season Amare upped his rebounding to 9.6 rpg in 32.8 minutes for a very good 0.293 per minute rate after being at 0.246 per minute in 2004-05. He can do it as shown by his 0.353 per minute rate in the playoffs, but he needs to bring that all the time. Equally important, he needs to do a better job of blocking out and not simply get rebounds that Marion would otherwise get.

Marion averaged 10.4 rpg in the playoffs, but that was only 0.251 per minute. During the regular season he averaged 0.26 per minute. This is a significant drop from 2005-06 when he averaged 11.8 rpg and 0.291 per minute. Some of this drop may be due to Stoudemire and more minutes by KT than the prior year; but Marion will have to get much closer to 0.3 per minute for the Suns to compete on the boards.

If Stoudemire and Marion need to improve somewhat, Diaw is going to have to improve dramatically. So far he has not proven to be even close to being an adequate rebounder. In 2005-06 he averaged 6.9 rpg or 0.19 per minute. Last year he dropped to 4.8 rpg for just 0.154 per minute (due in part to being moved to SF).

It is not that Boris cannot rebound, but he goes through periods when he just doesn't. In December he had three games with double digit rebounding, yet had two games with 0. In late February and early March he had 10 games in a row with 0 boards. There is some reason to think Diaw was struggling with back problems. If that is the case, they need him to be in better condition and healthy because he has a lot of slack he needs to make up for.

The rest of the team will have to step up their efforts to get scramble rebounds, but there is not a lot of size in the backcourt.
Grant Hill is likely to be more productive as a rebounder than Jame Jones, but his main value may as release man on the break which would permit Marion to stay back and rebound.

If the Suns hope to win a championship, they are going to have to "earn it" on the boards.

 

[arwillan]

id be interested to see a little ratio of shots missed to shots rebounded (offensive rebounds) and then the opposite, where we would have the opposite teams misses shots and our rebounds there (defensive rebounds). i think that would make some of the rebounding stats make more sense

 

[elindholm]

id be interested to see a little ratio of shots missed to shots rebounded (offensive rebounds) and then the opposite, where we would have the opposite teams misses shots and our rebounds there (defensive rebounds). i think that would make some of the rebounding stats make more sense

Those are available on espn.com. I post them about every six weeks, usually in a thread virtually identical to this one, started by the same person.

 

[dodie53]

i hope the suns add a big guy for fouling purposes
and
add another SG/SF,
barnes or posey..

 

[BC867]

This is perhaps the most significant post I've read, azirish, since I starting posting to Suns and D'backs boards a decade ago.

It makes no sense to get rid of Kurt Thomas when we're already deficient in rebounding. The best we can do is try to replace him, and still be as weak a rebounding team as last season.

Correction: it does make sense if ownership's goal is to entertain during the regular season and make an appearance in the playoffs . . . as it has been for all of the Suns 39 years.

What they may not be taking into account is that having Amare, as our only big man getting playing time (neutralizing his playing time due to fouls and making him tentative on defense) is going to hurt the Suns at the turnstyles.

We need to have two more bigs in the rotation. One to play alongside Amare and one to back up each of them.

Marion, Hill,and even Diaw at his best, are certainly not classic strong rebounders, they are situational rebounders.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

beyond kurt's rebounding numbers the biggest loss will be his ability to box out. even when he wasn't getting the board he was usually pretty effective, at least defensively, in neutralizing one opposing team player, allowing our players more unfettered access to the ball. so losing him w/o an effective replacement is somewhat of a double loss imo.

 

[Errntknght]

Since this seems to be history time, it would be interesting to see the Suns team rebounding stats for every year. I'm wondering if they were ever over fifty percent... I remember some years when they were close but I don't recall them ever being over that. Surely they must have been a few times.

 

[Brianellsworth]

i hope the suns add a big guy for fouling purposes
and
add another SG/SF,
barnes or posey..

ummm if im not mistaken barnes has a deal with GS

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

yeah he signed a one year with the warriors

 

[Cheesebeef]

Since this seems to be history time, it would be interesting to see the Suns team rebounding stats for every year. I'm wondering if they were ever over fifty percent... I remember some years when they were close but I don't recall them ever being over that. Surely they must have been a few times.

barkley's first two years they were + range.

 

[SunsTzu]

beyond kurt's rebounding numbers the biggest loss will be his ability to box out. even when he wasn't getting the board he was usually pretty effective, at least defensively, in neutralizing one opposing team player, allowing our players more unfettered access to the ball. so losing him w/o an effective replacement is somewhat of a double loss imo.

I completely agree. Not only that but the guy he was clearing off the board was normally the oppositions best rebounder. Even if the Suns manage to sign PJ Brown it will still be a definite downgrade in rebounding(unless Amare make huge improvements in his technique).

 

[okhoops]

The Suns don't want the typical wide-bodies that fill space on the defensive boards but can't get out on the break. D'Antoni seems to believe that the team can control the boards with quick, high energy guys chasing down rebounds and/or getting off the ground first tipping, keeping balls alive. Marion, Amare and Diaw all fit this mold. It's a different philosophy. It's a matter of who gets worn down first--the heavy beasts that are forced to get up and down the floor or the active, quick guys who get leaned on and wrestled by the beasts.

In watching the playoffs the last couple of years, the games that the Suns were able to control the boards (and tempo) with their collective hustle and activity, they were fine. The games where they lacked energy or tenacity on the boards, they got manhandled.

If D'Antoni is going to stick with this philosophy (and obviously he is!), another athletic body or two is needed to play quality minutes. It seems a little much--even as well-conditioned as they are--to expect three undersized guys to be that active for 38-40 minutes a night especially in a seven-game series.

 

[Errntknght]

cheese,

barkley's first two years they were + range.

Good guess but I checked and the only Barkley year they were over 50% was his third year - by 39 rebounds. The year after Barkley left was one of their better team efforts - the leading rebounder was Hot Rod Williams at 8.3/gm but they had a bunch of guys that contributed - Ceballos, Manning, Wesley Person, Finley, Kidd, Mark Bryant, Tisdale, Joe Kleine and AC Green. +217 total rebs or 51.6%.

 

[Cheesebeef]

cheese,

Good guess but I checked and the only Barkley year they were over 50% was his third year - by 39 rebounds. The year after Barkley left was one of their better team efforts - the leading rebounder was Hot Rod Williams at 8.3/gm but they had a bunch of guys that contributed - Ceballos, Manning, Wesley Person, Finley, Kidd, Mark Bryant, Tisdale, Joe Kleine and AC Green. +217 total rebs or 51.6%.

unless I'm reading this wrong or these stats are just wildly off on this site, basketball reference has us at 3651 rebounds to opponents 3434 in 92-93.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/1993.html

and in 93-94 - we outrebounded our opponents 3673 to 3333.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/1993.html

 

[overseascardfan]

The Suns don't want the typical wide-bodies that fill space on the defensive boards but can't get out on the break. D'Antoni seems to believe that the team can control the boards with quick, high energy guys chasing down rebounds and/or getting off the ground first tipping, keeping balls alive. Marion, Amare and Diaw all fit this mold. It's a different philosophy. It's a matter of who gets worn down first--the heavy beasts that are forced to get up and down the floor or the active, quick guys who get leaned on and wrestled by the beasts.

In watching the playoffs the last couple of years, the games that the Suns were able to control the boards (and tempo) with their collective hustle and activity, they were fine. The games where they lacked energy or tenacity on the boards, they got manhandled.

If D'Antoni is going to stick with this philosophy (and obviously he is!), another athletic body or two is needed to play quality minutes. It seems a little much--even as well-conditioned as they are--to expect three undersized guys to be that active for 38-40 minutes a night especially in a seven-game series.

You need height and wingspan along with hustle. That is why Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, and Dwight Howard are such great all around rebounders.

 

[Errntknght]

Thats the same site I used, but I interpreted the 'offense' and 'defense' headings to mean offense and defense, not Suns and Opponents as you apparently did - and it appears that you are right, unless the Suns outrebounded their opps in 05-06. At the time I thought it was a weird way to break out the stats, but people do weird things all the time.

Edit: Ooops, not the same site - I used databaseBasketball.com which says that it used to be known as BasketballReference.com. The sites you used have the sensible headings.

 

[Joe Mama]

The Suns are going to need to focus on improving their rebounding this season. Losing Kurt Thomas will remove 5.7 rpg from a team that was already a net -2.3 rpg down.

This may be nitpicking, but that's not really true. Losing Kurt Thomas only removes 5.7 rpg from the team if the players who replace his minutes don't get any rebounds at all. If they go into the season with the lineup they have right now they'd probably lose a rebound or two per game, but more importantly...

beyond kurt's rebounding numbers the biggest loss will be his ability to box out. even when he wasn't getting the board he was usually pretty effective, at least defensively, in neutralizing one opposing team player, allowing our players more unfettered access to the ball. so losing him w/o an effective replacement is somewhat of a double loss imo.

A-freaking-men. Let's use Tim Duncan as an example because the San Antonio Spurs are the opponents that most of us worry most about (even though Kurt Thomas will be missed against almost every team, not just San Antonio). When you put a smaller guy on him, Duncan can simply go right over and grab rebounds or tip the ball back to himself for one of his teammates. On top of that, when you put a smaller man on Tim Duncan it almost always requires a double team. The double team leaves people out of position for rebounds.

When Amare Stoudemire guards Tim Duncan the problem really isn't that Duncan can go right over him. The problem is that Amare rarely boxes out. He'll put up some good rebounding numbers for himself, but his rebounding fundamentals are just terrible. I wish I had had the patience to write down how many times people went right around him to grab boards because he just did not box out his man. He needs to learn that rebounding is as much about keeping the opponent from getting the rebound as getting the rebound himself.

I completely agree. Not only that but the guy he was clearing off the board was normally the oppositions best rebounder. Even if the Suns manage to sign PJ Brown it will still be a definite downgrade in rebounding(unless Amare make huge improvements in his technique).

I agree with your first statement definitely. I'm not sure that P.J. Brown would be a downgrade though. I surely don't believe replacing Thomas with him would be "a definite downgrade" in rebounding. P.J. Brown is solid fundamentally. I believe substituting P.J. Brown for Kurt Thomas is a lateral move. If the primary goal is to get past San Antonio he may even be a slight upgrade since he's been known as one of the best defenders on Tim Duncan.

Joe

 

[azirish]

This may be nitpicking, but that's not really true. Losing Kurt Thomas only removes 5.7 rpg from the team if the players who replace his minutes don't get any rebounds at all. If they go into the season with the lineup they have right now they'd probably lose a rebound or two per game, but more importantly...

You are right. A more accurate stat would be that the Suns need to replace KT's 0.31 per minute rebounding and boxing out for the 18 minutes per game he played.

A-freaking-men. Let's use Tim Duncan as an example because the San Antonio Spurs are the opponents that most of us worry most about (even though Kurt Thomas will be missed against almost every team, not just San Antonio). When you put a smaller guy on him, Duncan can simply go right over and grab rebounds or tip the ball back to himself for one of his teammates. On top of that, when you put a smaller man on Tim Duncan it almost always requires a double team. The double team leaves people out of position for rebounds.

In a sense this is another rotation problem. Playing small requires a lot of movement on defense and IMHO that Suns don't.

When Amare Stoudemire guards Tim Duncan the problem really isn't that Duncan can go right over him. The problem is that Amare rarely boxes out. He'll put up some good rebounding numbers for himself, but his rebounding fundamentals are just terrible. I wish I had had the patience to write down how many times people went right around him to grab boards because he just did not box out his man. He needs to learn that rebounding is as much about keeping the opponent from getting the rebound as getting the rebound himself.

You and I have been talking about the need for a real defensive guru and I'm not convinced Humphries is the guy.

I agree with your first statement definitely. I'm not sure that P.J. Brown would be a downgrade though. I surely don't believe replacing Thomas with him would be "a definite downgrade" in rebounding. P.J. Brown is solid fundamentally. I believe substituting P.J. Brown for Kurt Thomas is a lateral move. If the primary goal is to get past San Antonio he may even be a slight upgrade since he's been known as one of the best defenders on Tim Duncan.

Joe

IMHO, PJ is not as good a rebounder as KT, but the stats are deceptive. Last season, PJ played on a team chocked full of rebounders, so his 0.24 per minute is not as impressive as his blocking out.

BTW, Eric is right in saying that I brought up the rebounding issue before. I was motivated to look at the impact of rebounding on the playoffs because of reading so many posts advocating getting more shooters or wings and others questioning why getting PJ is such a big deal.

 

[okhoops]

I'm not in whole-hearted agreement. Granted, the best case scenario is to have all of the above (size, athleticism, good motor, et al). That said, at every level of this game there are examples of undersized guys with a great motor that dominate the glass. Barkley (not even 6'5" by most honest tape measures) may be the best example of that at this level (Karl Malone, Paul Silas, Rodman...). His skill set (good motor, anticipatory skills, fearlessness and determination) more than compensated for deficiencies in other areas. NBA history is full of long-armed, leapers who refused to find the glass. Which would we rather?

 

[BC867]

It's ironic that the sister team of the Suns, the Phoenix Mercury, has the same problem. They are constantly outrebounded.

Yesterday, when the Mercury beat the L.A. Sparks, I believe, was the first time in a long, long, long time that Phoenix outrebounded its opponent.

The Mercury will be headed to the post-season for the first time in awhile, too. But will Paul Westhead's small ball (yes, even in the WNBA) have any better results than Mike D'Antoni's in the playoffs?

That would make the Suns corporate philosophy universal -- put on an exciting show during the season and make an appearance in the playoffs. Whether it's ol' Sol or its closest planet.

Arghhh.

 

[BC867]

Folks in Arizona hate defense.

This folk doesn't.

 

[elindholm]

Thomas to Brown is a downgrade because Brown is four years older now than Thomas was a year ago, and those four years count quite a bit.

 

[The_Matrix]

Kevin Garnett leads the league in rebounds per game. Maybe we should trade Amare for KG.

 

[dodie53]

Kevin Garnett leads the league in rebounds per game. Maybe we should trade Amare for KG.

how about we trade for ben wallace?

 

[BC867]

Kevin Garnett leads the league in rebounds per game. Maybe we should trade Amare for KG.

Or maybe Shawn Marion shouldn't have put the kabash on the 3-way trade with Boston involving KG. Then Garnett and Amare could have played side by side, along with Hill.

Garnett or Amare was not the answer.

I have a feeling that Marion is going to be gone anyway before the start of next season.

Unless we get a Center in the process, Marion's "I want, I don't want" tantrums have cost the Suns a shot at a Championship.