Rebounding - Suns Primary Challenge

[Joe Mama]

Thomas to Brown is a downgrade because Brown is four years older now than Thomas was a year ago, and those four years count quite a bit.

I would argue that Kurt Thomas doesn't play any younger than PJ Brown, and PJ Brown has always been healthy. Let's put it this way. I don't think you lose anything on the court, and if I was basing my choice on the chance of injury I would take PJ Brown any day over Kurt Thomas.

Joe

 

[azirish]

I would argue that Kurt Thomas doesn't play any younger than PJ Brown, and PJ Brown has always been healthy. Let's put it this way. I don't think you lose anything on the court, and if I was basing my choice on the chance of injury I would take PJ Brown any day over Kurt Thomas.

Joe

PJ has never played fewer than 72 games while in the last two seasons KT has played 53 and 67 respectively.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Well, I have always seen a link in Arizona teams.

Almost all of them have zero defense and all offense (Suns, Cards, Mercury)

Conicidence? I assume not. Folks in Arizona hate defense.

Weren't the cards notorious for having the best defense and worst offense in the league?

 

[BC867]

PJ... in the last two seasons KT has played 53 and 67 respectively.

Was that because of his health or DNP's decided by the Coach?

He didn't play a role in Game 1 vs. the Spurs, but that wasn't his doing.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Weren't the cards notorious for having the best defense and worst offense in the league?

uh, no. the cards are usually pretty damn bad in both areas most of the time.

 

[green machine]

Was that because of his health or DNP's decided by the Coach?

He didn't play a role in Game 1 vs. the Spurs, but that wasn't his doing.

Umm...DNP means he didn't play at all. He didn't play at all because of injury issues.

 

[elindholm]

I would argue that Kurt Thomas doesn't play any younger than PJ Brown, and PJ Brown has always been healthy. Let's put it this way. I don't think you lose anything on the court, and if I was basing my choice on the chance of injury I would take PJ Brown any day over Kurt Thomas.

I'd be tempted to go along with that had Brown's FG% not nose-dived last season. But in fact he shot a career worst, under 41%, compared to his lifetime average of 46%. His free-throw shooting also slipped, fading below 80% for the first time since 2000. To me, that looks like someone who is running out of gas.

Thomas had puzzling problems staying healthy in Phoenix, but before coming to the Suns, his track record for health was every bit as good as Brown's. (Thomas and Brown each missed a total of 12 games in the six years from 1999 to 2005.) His per-minute production held steady, right around what he did with the Knicks over the previous several years. If the running "system" was too much for Thomas, who was only 33 at the start of the '05-'06 season, I don't think I'd expect the 38-year-old Brown to fare any better.

Bottom line: Brown right now looks like the Thomas of 2005, except that he's five years older and his numbers are already starting to fall off. The idea that the Suns can plug Brown in to Thomas's spot and not miss a beat is fantasy. And that's if they even get him at all.

 

[Joe Mama]

I'd be tempted to go along with that had Brown's FG% not nose-dived last season. But in fact he shot a career worst, under 41%, compared to his lifetime average of 46%. His free-throw shooting also slipped, fading below 80% for the first time since 2000. To me, that looks like someone who is running out of gas.

Thomas had puzzling problems staying healthy in Phoenix, but before coming to the Suns, his track record for health was every bit as good as Brown's. (Thomas and Brown each missed a total of 12 games in the six years from 1999 to 2005.) His per-minute production held steady, right around what he did with the Knicks over the previous several years. If the running "system" was too much for Thomas, who was only 33 at the start of the '05-'06 season, I don't think I'd expect the 38-year-old Brown to fare any better.

Bottom line: Brown right now looks like the Thomas of 2005, except that he's five years older and his numbers are already starting to fall off. The idea that the Suns can plug Brown in to Thomas's spot and not miss a beat is fantasy. And that's if they even get him at all.

They might miss a few beats at first, but once he gets used to the team I think he'll do all the same things that Kurt Thomas did for the Phoenix Suns. I'm sorry that I won't look at one season where his numbers fell and say it's a "fantasy" to believe he can slide into KT's role.

Joe

 

[okhoops]

At worst, PJ will be slightly less productive offensively; many have said he's every bit the defender Thomas is, if not better. We've still added Grant Hill, two rookies (at least one of whom should be able to work into the rotation) and kept a core with one more year of playoff experience. The Suns are a better team. Being patient right now is not a bad move. They'll sign one more big and then they can play out the season and then add another "piece" before the trade deadline using their trade exemption.

 

[azirish]

I ran the hot zone analysis of PJ Brown and his stats are very weird. The reason his percentages went down was because of a terrible percentage inside, not from his mid range shooting.

Last season PJ averaged 44.8% on his mid range shots, but only 38.5% for layups.

Mid range 56 of 125 for 44.8%
Short 47 of 117 for 40%
Layups 67 of 174 for 38.5%

In 2005-06 his mid range was better, but mostly it was his layups

Mid range 102 of 198 for 51.5%
Short 63 of 168 for 37.5%
Layup 104 of 217 for 47.9%

Why was he so bad at layups this season? I don't know. But during the this year's playoffs he averaged 49.3% shooting.

What is totally unintuitive is to find that PJ was a better mid range shooter than KT this past season, but KT was vastly better at short range and layups.

Mid range 40 of 103 for 38.8%
Short 27 of 61 for 44.3%
Layups 59 of 94 for 62.8%

Eric may be right that PJ is "losing steam", but an equally plausible explanation is that Skiles offense might have contributed to PJ's offensive decline.

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Can layups include putbacks? When wallace is out, brown is their only reasonable rebounder, which leaves him vulnerable to getting banged up under the rim when Gordon is launching grenades everywhere

 

[azirish]

Can layups include putbacks? When wallace is out, brown is their only reasonable rebounder, which leaves him vulnerable to getting banged up under the rim when Gordon is launching grenades everywhere

I honestly don't know. I just started using hotzone. My guess is that somebody who only gets inside shots on tips and put backs would have a low percentage, but it could also mean he's asked to do "back to the basket" plays which he's bad at.

In looking at the impact of the offense, KT's inside numbers changed when he came to the Suns:

2004-05 84 of 155 for 54.2% (last year with Knicks-2855 minutes 35.7 per game)
2005-06 78 of 123 for 63.4% (1411 minutes - 26.6 per game)
2006-07 69 of 94 for 62.8% (1208 minutes 18.0 per game)

Playing with Nash can have a huge impact on a player's stats.

 

[Errntknght]

YouJust,

Can layups include putbacks?

I added up all his attempts shown in 'Hotzones' - 416 - and he attempted 418 shots of which 2 were 3 ptrs (via ESPN player stats) so Hotzones included all of his two point attempts so they obviously included all his putback attempts and tip attempts.

 

[azirish]

YouJust,

I added up all his attempts shown in 'Hotzones' - 416 - and he attempted 418 shots of which 2 were 3 ptrs (via ESPN player stats) so Hotzones included all of his two point attempts so they obviously included all his putback attempts and tip attempts.

That is the only logical conclusion.

BTW, Ben Wallace's percentage inside was 49.4%; which is relatively low though not as low as PJ's. The Bulls had 984 offensive rebounds compared to only 737 offensive rebounds by the Suns which suggests there may be a lot more tip attempts.