Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
While the Cards must wait at 4 until the previous picks are made, those above are mired in internal debates.
I believe Chicago has resolved the Fields issue, though not publicly. They would prefer to trade him if they can find a taker. That’s a big if. The second question they must resolve is sorting through trade options. If they keep the pick there seems little doubt they choose Williams.
Turning to the trade options they need to decide several issues. Are they confident with any of the second level QBs, like Nix? He’s a solid game manager who some analysts believe could be adequate for a defense first team. The Bears have their own pick at 9 and several teams not too far below that which would offer QB options. And a trade of that nature would likely bring back their first from the trade partner as well as at least 2 future number ones. If they take the deal they likely hang on to Fields one more season while grooming the QB selected. I believe this type of trade is a long shot. Admitting you need a QB, but passing on the best available choice seems likely to put somebody’s job on the line if Williams excels.
The next scenario also makes little sense to me. It maintains Washington doesn’t want another NC developed QB. They would be open to quite a bit of criticism for making the same mistake twice, if Maye fails. On the other hand, Williams would seem better suited to the Bears’ current offense. Whereas Maye would seem a better fit for Washington’s pocket passing offense. Maye is not a statue. He should be fine in the Washington offense. I can’t see Washington giving up enough in picks to prompt the Bears to trade away Williams.
My gut feeling is both these teams stay put and take the likely QBs. Keep in mind it’s very hard to become an NFL GM. There are only 32 jobs. For most it took years of hard work to get there. Both Chicago and Washington have PR issues. Tossing away a chance to lock up a consensus top QB is a huge gamble. Don’t ever disregard that’s what Ossenfort did when he gave Murray a shot. It’s true he likely would get another chance this season, but watching what happened to the Texas pick tells you passing is always a gamble.
So that brings us to New England. They have massive needs. They could trade the pick, especially if some team wants Daniels. I think that choice won’t be resolved until he throws, most likely at a Pro Day or private workout. I think it unlikely he throws at the Combine. So who needs a QB. Clearly Atlanta, Minnesota and Denver seem to have certain QB needs. The Giants, Patriots and the Raiders are debating that need. So if New England doesn’t take a QB, they might trade down. A few drafts have them taking Harrison. I see that as unlikely. It seems most likely they trade down to a team needing a QB. They could likely trade with the Giants or Falcons and still get a top OT, which I believe is their primary target. Of course if they think the Cards go OT, that won’t work with Atlanta, as Tennessee also seems poised to take an OT.
The Cards have the fourth pick. The most confusing part of all of this is what will Ossenfort do? The problem is we don’t know him very well. I’ve posted previously that the guys I know who have experience with him have insisted all along he’ll take an OT. When the Cards had the second pick a trade down would have been obvious. Looking at the early selectors, New England, Tennessee & the Jets all need an OT. The Bears and Giants need a guard, so they could take a tackle and move him inside. In any case if Ossenfort wants a specific OT he may have to take him at 4.
Of course Ossenfort has to work with his coaches. While Gannon definitely leans to defense he is fairly heavily invested in Murray. To succeed Murray needs weapons. Nothing could have made that clearer than the performance of the current WRs. While I’m enamored of Dortch, he’s a role player; a backup. The biggest mystery is Wilson. He played in 13 games, starting 12. In 5 he had 2 or fewer receptions. In only 4 games did he have more than 3 receptions. Much of the time he was invisible. There’s little point in reliving the last 2 games other than to say something changed about Wilson. He finally attacked the game. Whether he can sustain that momentum and also avoid injury is a major unknown. Essentially the IMO Cards need at least 3 new WRs. Whether Ossenfort feels compelled to make this a major focus of his draft plan remains to be seen. I think it’s better than even money Harrison is still on the board at 4. One thing is certain. If that is the case this draft will significantly define the philosophy of Ossenfort.
I believe Chicago has resolved the Fields issue, though not publicly. They would prefer to trade him if they can find a taker. That’s a big if. The second question they must resolve is sorting through trade options. If they keep the pick there seems little doubt they choose Williams.
Turning to the trade options they need to decide several issues. Are they confident with any of the second level QBs, like Nix? He’s a solid game manager who some analysts believe could be adequate for a defense first team. The Bears have their own pick at 9 and several teams not too far below that which would offer QB options. And a trade of that nature would likely bring back their first from the trade partner as well as at least 2 future number ones. If they take the deal they likely hang on to Fields one more season while grooming the QB selected. I believe this type of trade is a long shot. Admitting you need a QB, but passing on the best available choice seems likely to put somebody’s job on the line if Williams excels.
The next scenario also makes little sense to me. It maintains Washington doesn’t want another NC developed QB. They would be open to quite a bit of criticism for making the same mistake twice, if Maye fails. On the other hand, Williams would seem better suited to the Bears’ current offense. Whereas Maye would seem a better fit for Washington’s pocket passing offense. Maye is not a statue. He should be fine in the Washington offense. I can’t see Washington giving up enough in picks to prompt the Bears to trade away Williams.
My gut feeling is both these teams stay put and take the likely QBs. Keep in mind it’s very hard to become an NFL GM. There are only 32 jobs. For most it took years of hard work to get there. Both Chicago and Washington have PR issues. Tossing away a chance to lock up a consensus top QB is a huge gamble. Don’t ever disregard that’s what Ossenfort did when he gave Murray a shot. It’s true he likely would get another chance this season, but watching what happened to the Texas pick tells you passing is always a gamble.
So that brings us to New England. They have massive needs. They could trade the pick, especially if some team wants Daniels. I think that choice won’t be resolved until he throws, most likely at a Pro Day or private workout. I think it unlikely he throws at the Combine. So who needs a QB. Clearly Atlanta, Minnesota and Denver seem to have certain QB needs. The Giants, Patriots and the Raiders are debating that need. So if New England doesn’t take a QB, they might trade down. A few drafts have them taking Harrison. I see that as unlikely. It seems most likely they trade down to a team needing a QB. They could likely trade with the Giants or Falcons and still get a top OT, which I believe is their primary target. Of course if they think the Cards go OT, that won’t work with Atlanta, as Tennessee also seems poised to take an OT.
The Cards have the fourth pick. The most confusing part of all of this is what will Ossenfort do? The problem is we don’t know him very well. I’ve posted previously that the guys I know who have experience with him have insisted all along he’ll take an OT. When the Cards had the second pick a trade down would have been obvious. Looking at the early selectors, New England, Tennessee & the Jets all need an OT. The Bears and Giants need a guard, so they could take a tackle and move him inside. In any case if Ossenfort wants a specific OT he may have to take him at 4.
Of course Ossenfort has to work with his coaches. While Gannon definitely leans to defense he is fairly heavily invested in Murray. To succeed Murray needs weapons. Nothing could have made that clearer than the performance of the current WRs. While I’m enamored of Dortch, he’s a role player; a backup. The biggest mystery is Wilson. He played in 13 games, starting 12. In 5 he had 2 or fewer receptions. In only 4 games did he have more than 3 receptions. Much of the time he was invisible. There’s little point in reliving the last 2 games other than to say something changed about Wilson. He finally attacked the game. Whether he can sustain that momentum and also avoid injury is a major unknown. Essentially the IMO Cards need at least 3 new WRs. Whether Ossenfort feels compelled to make this a major focus of his draft plan remains to be seen. I think it’s better than even money Harrison is still on the board at 4. One thing is certain. If that is the case this draft will significantly define the philosophy of Ossenfort.
