Salary-cap may actually decrease!

[Joe Mama]

Unfortunately I don't know how to copy and paste ESPN Insider, so you'll have to wait until sunsfn posts it. Apparently owners were told last week that league revenue is actually down from last season. They said everybody was hoping the salary cap would increase to at least 45 million (from 43.8 million). Some people were hoping it would go up to 47 million.

This affects the Phoenix Suns in a couple of ways. Obviously they might not have quite as much room under the salary cap to sign free agents this summer as they were hoping to have. It also might mean that there is a luxury tax next season. Teams had been told that there would not be a luxury tax next season. I know we heard a lot about this when Tom Gugliotta was traded. That actually could be a positive thing for the Phoenix Suns because they have assets and salary space to help broker deals for teams desperate to get under the luxury tax limit. Who knows?

Overall it would say this is not good news though.

Joe Mama

 

[elindholm]

I can't keep the numbers all in my head, but won't the Suns still have enough room to offer Bryant a max deal, assuming they use their pick to pawn off White or Eisley?

 

[George O'Brien]

I can't keep the numbers all in my head, but won't the Suns still have enough room to offer Bryant a max deal, assuming they use their pick to pawn off White or Eisley?

They should. However, if the cap were dropped to $43 million (worst case scenerio), it would mean that their options beyond Kobe become more limited.

$43 Million (possible cap level)
33.8 million (starting salary level)
-----
$9.2 cap space
5.8 White
---
$15 million

The #7 pick would require $1.8 million. So if the Suns offered Kobe $13 million, it would leave only minimum salaries available for McDyess and Vujanic. Moving Eisley gives the Suns an extra $500,000.

I have been projecting that Dice would need about $2 million. Vujanic has a buyout that would tend to push his cost to upwards of $2 million. The Suns can clear part of that by trading their #7 for future picks, but it is still pretty tight.

 

[SweetD]

Vujanic has a buyout that would tend to push his cost to upwards of $2 million.

I don't believe the buyout would count against the cap. I thought NY already payed for the buyout and Vujanic decided not to come over.

 

[George O'Brien]

I don't believe the buyout would count against the cap. I thought NY already payed for the buyout and Vujanic decided not to come over.

My understanding was that he signed a new contract in Italy after turning down the Knicks. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[elindholm]

This may be a blessing in disguise for the teams that are under the cap.

There's only one potential FA on the market who is clearly worth a max contract, and that is Bryant, who is likely to stay with the Lakers anyway. This means that, more than in past summers, the market will determine what kinds of deals various FAs will get. With money tighter everywhere, teams will be more reluctant to offer that extra million of starting salary. That means the players will have to settle for a bit less, which means that the teams hiring those players should be able to get by a bit more cheaply.

For instance: As unlikely as a $60M/6yr deal for Camby was before, it's even more unlikely now.

I wonder whether this development will deter Dampier from opting out?

 

[slinslin]

It also puts the teams under the cap into competition with all teams willing to spend the MLE.

However we could still have enough for Kobe, Vujanic and McDyess.

Kobe would cost 13.5M$ I figure and Vujanic and McDyess about 3M$.

That means a total of 16.5M$.

If the Suns trade Jahidi White and the Cavs pick they would be at 28M$. 15.8M$ under what the cap is right now.

Well here is hoping we can clear Eisley with our own pick and White with the Cavs pick. That would put us 22.1M$ under what the cap is right now.

 

[F-Dog]

For instance: As unlikely as a $60M/6yr deal for Camby was before, it's even more unlikely now.

I'm thinking something along these lines, too. Brent Barry and Stromile Swift are two more players who will probably have to take less money as a result of this.

Here's my guess as to some of the other effects:


1. There's no longer even the slightest chance that a team would take Jahidi White's contract without significant compensation.

2. The Clippers and Suns will both have to make some hard choices if they want to pursue Kobe Bryant. For the Clips, it's no longer enough to get rid of Melvin Ely and renounce QRich and Dooling; they'll need to find another couple of million dollars somewhere. If the Suns dump White and add Kobe, they won't have room for another significant signing--not even Vujanic.

3. Detroit might not have enough cap room to re-sign Rasheed Wallace if they renounce his rights; plus, even if they renounce Rasheed, they still might not have the room to match a heavily-committed suitor for Mehmet Okur. Joe Dumars is going to have some very tough decisions to make early this summer.

4. This increases the leverage of Denver and San Antonio, who both have enough cap room this summer that a couple of million either way won't matter much. Denver will be able to sign Camby for cheaper if they choose, or they could wind up with a couple of RFAs (Okur, Ginobili, Turkoglu, QRich, K-Mart), who are the cream of this year's free agent crop. The Spurs probably have a better chance of matching offers for Ginobili and Turkoglu and still having room left over to add another significant piece.

5. The two other teams with cap room--Atlanta and Utah--will find their space has significant trade value. Without the luxury tax, there's no way either team could match what Utah made from its cap space this year.

6. It's more likely now that Erick Dampier will stay put for another year. Kenyon Martin, too. (New Jersey might even be able to get Martin to re-sign for less than the max.)


I must say, it seems very strange to me that the NBA's revenue has gone down, since attendance is up and LeBron and Carmelo are both rainmakers. Does anybody know what the story is with that?

 

[slinslin]

Unless Vujanic demands more than Lampe the Suns could still sign him easily.

They would still have roughly 2.5M$ (unless the cap significantly decreases) under the cap once they sign Kobe after they trade White.

I would really doubt this affects the expansion draft at all.

 

[SweetD]

IMO the Bobcats may take White with out us giving up any draft picks. He is a physical C that would do well in the East.

 

[elindholm]

1. There's no longer even the slightest chance that a team would take Jahidi White's contract without significant compensation.

I don't think too many posters here had hopes of dumping White onto a team under the cap anyway. Charlotte has its own salary cap amount and rules, not connected to those that everyone else plays by.

3.... plus, even if they renounce Rasheed, they still might not have the room to match a heavily-committed suitor for Mehmet Okur. Joe Dumars is going to have some very tough decisions to make early this summer.

Heh, here we go again with Okur. I just don't think he's going to be that hot a commodity. But we'll see.

6. It's more likely now that Erick Dampier will stay put for another year. Kenyon Martin, too. (New Jersey might even be able to get Martin to re-sign for less than the max.)

I've been figuring all along that New Jersey will offer Martin a near-max extension, wait and see if anyone offers him the full max, and then reluctantly match it when that happens.

 

[F-Dog]

3.... plus, even if they renounce Rasheed, they still might not have the room to match a heavily-committed suitor for Mehmet Okur. Joe Dumars is going to have some very tough decisions to make early this summer.

Heh, here we go again with Okur. I just don't think he's going to be that hot a commodity. But we'll see.

I'm thinking of Denver and Utah (and possibly Atlanta) rather than the Suns, don't worry.


I still feel that Okur is the best FA option for Phoenix if they don't draft a center, but I know better than to confuse my opinions with those of the Suns' brain trust.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I don't believe the buyout would count against the cap. I thought NY already payed for the buyout and Vujanic decided not to come over.

I think you are misunderstanding how the buyout works.

First off, he used to have a buyout 150k, but since he signed a new deal last summer, it is expected to be set in excess of the maximum 350k (something like that) a team can pay. A buyout amount is not written into the contract, so it will have to be negotiated I think.


Since the team can ONLY send 350k towards the buyout, the player is responsible for coming up with the difference. The only way that can happen in most cases is if the Suns give him a contract high enough for him to afford the buyout himself.

That is why the expected number is around 2 million a year (also because that is similar to what he makes now, since there are no taxes). So the suns arent paying for the buyout itself, they just need to pay him enough so he can buy himself out, which would count against the cap.

 

[slinslin]

Anyway if we sign Kobe we don't need Vujanic this season anyway.

Vujanic also has never said in european media that he wants to leave. In fact he has said several times that he plans to stay until his contract is up.

Marion, #7 and Voshkul for TMac and Pachulia.
Sign Kobe and McDyess.


McDyess/Lampe/Pachulia
Amare/Harvey
TMac/Zarko
Kobe/Jacobsen
JJ/Barbosa/Eisley

Or sign some guys to veteran minimum contracts like we did with Scott Williams.
Keon Clark would definately have trouble finding a new team for example.

Also we could use Vujanic's rights as trade bait in that scenario.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Anyone know if we are allowed to trade the rights to Milos to Charlotte, along with cash, in order to entice them to take Jahidi or Eisley?

 

[George O'Brien]

Anyone know if we are allowed to trade the rights to Milos to Charlotte, along with cash, in order to entice them to take Jahidi or Eisley?

Not as part of the original deal. In another thread I suggested making a secret arrangement to do a separate, one sided trade to get the Bobcats the Cleveland pick. Something like that is the only way the Suns can unload Eisley.

 

[SweetD]

From what I understand teams can do under the table type of deal with an expansion team to take players and them cut them. So if the Suns wanted to work out a deal to pay the Bobcats 3mil to take Howard. The Bobcats can get Howard cut him and he will not have any cap hit to the Bobcats or the Suns. But Howard will still recieve the cash.

 

[George O'Brien]

From what I understand teams can do under the table type of deal with an expansion team to take players and them cut them. So if the Suns wanted to work out a deal to pay the Bobcats 3mil to take Howard. The Bobcats can get Howard cut him and he will not have any cap hit to the Bobcats or the Suns. But Howard will still recieve the cash.

That's right, but the Bobcats would be stuck with paying the remaining $10 million. It would not count against their salary cap BUT it means paying $10 million for a draft pick.

 

[Joe Mama]

I have a hard time believing Kobe Bryant is going to sign for $13 million when he'll be eligible for a deal starting at $15 million. Off the top of my head I figure that would end up costing him $20 million of the life of his deal. It might even be more.

Eric, not only do I think Okur will be a hot commodity this summer, but I think the Phoenix Suns will be one of the teams after him. I think he would actually be a very good fit, but I don't want to see them squander all of their salary cap on him.

Slin, I don't know how everybody else feels, but once you start talking about the Phoenix Suns acquiring Kobe Bryant AND Tracy McGrady it's hard for me to take you seriously. I know it's possible. It just seems so incredibly unlikely.

Joe Mama

 

[slinslin]

Kobe's deal isn't starting at 15M$.

 

[George O'Brien]

Actually a deal starting at $13 million is feasible in that it generates $100 million over six years:

1 13.0
2 14.3
3 15.7
4 17.3
5 19.0
6 20.9
---------------
Total 100.3

As for Okur and the rest, we have to define what is meant by a "hot" commodity. I would break the FA's into the following categories:

Max - Starting at $10 million
Upper Middle - Starting at between $7.5 and $10
Lower Middle - Between MLE and $7.5
High Mid Cap - $3.5 to MLE
Middle Mid Cap - $2 to $3.5
Lower Cap Exemption $1.7 million
Veteran Minimum $1 million
Rookie Minimum under $1 million

I think Okur will be a lower middle above cap.

 

[playstation]

I actually tabulated the max contract the suns (or any team other than lakers) could give kobe vs lakers themselves, heres what it looks like (based on salary rules, both teams can give him a 5% raise off this years salary, but we can only give 10% raises, while they can give 12.5%):

Lakers(105% initial increase, 12.5% raise (1771547) / 7 yr max)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 total
14172375 15943922 17715469 19487016 21258563 23030110 24801657 136409112

Suns (105% initial increase, 10% raise (1417238) / 6 yr max)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 total
14172375 15589613 17006851 18424089 19841327 21258565 *22321494 106292820
Sorry, it looks ugly after I pasted it in.

He makes 30M more, but mostly because the deal is one year longer. Over the first 6 years, the difference is only about 6M. However, the other side of the arguement is that the difference is 6M!

 

[elindholm]

Eric, not only do I think Okur will be a hot commodity this summer, but I think the Phoenix Suns will be one of the teams after him. I think he would actually be a very good fit, but I don't want to see them squander all of their salary cap on him.

Well, you could be right, but I hope you aren't.

I don't like Okur. Granted, I haven't seen him play that much, but he seems soft, marginal on defense, and not particularly fleet of foot. He isn't a shot blocker and he picks up fouls fairly quickly. He's sort of like a smaller version of Luc Longley with better shooting range.

As the season gets tougher, his numbers go down. This year, after the All-Star break, all of his numbers were down. Now sure, part of the reason for that is the addition of Rasheed Wallace. But his rebounding was way down -- 4.4 per game after the break, compared to 6.6 before. And, while I don't have the stats anymore, I remember that a similar thing happened last year: when they tried to increase his minutes, his production went down.

In fact, let's compare Okur's numbers this year to those of the center we all love to hate, Jake Voskuhl.

Age: Okur 24, Voskuhl 26
Height: Okur 6' 11", Voskuhl 6' 11"
Weight: Okur 249, Voskuhl 245
Minutes: Okur 22.3, Voskuhl 24.3
Points: Okur 9.6, Voskuhl 6.6
Rebounds: Okur 5.9, Voskuhl 5.2
Fouls: Okur 1.9, Voskuhl 3.9
FG%: Okur .463, Voskuhl .507
FT%: Okur .775, Voskuhl .740
3FG (season totals): Okur 18-48, Voskuhl 0-0
Blocks: Okur 0.9, Voskuhl 0.4
Assists: Okur 1.0, Voskuhl 0.9

Okur's numbers are better, but not by much. His only big advantage is in fouls, but that is surely because he can allow Ben Wallace to be the last line of defense, rather than need to challenge anything. His vaunted shooting touch might extend to the three-point line, but it's not an important part of his game (barely half an attempt per game).

I just don't see what the fascination is with Okur.

 

[slinslin]

Voshkul is a stiff, Okur isn't.

 

[Suns_fan69]

Regarding resigning McDyess

I don't think it'll be a problem resigning Dice if we do sign Kobe; doesn't the MLE open up for use once we go over the cap?

I thought it does, and if so, the only problem we might have is we sign Kobe and he puts us just under the cap.