Should the Suns keep Ryan McDonough as GM

[hcsilla]

You wouldn't?

The #2 lottery seed has a .561 chance of getting a top three pick.
The #3 lottery seed has a .472 chance of getting a top three pick.
The #1 lottery seed has a .250 chance of getting the top pick.

It doesn't matter what chance of getting a top3 pick the Sixers had, what does matter is which top3 pick the Sixers got, so this is where the starting point is wrong.

And the approch is wrong too, IMO, since you can't really describe with probabilites what was expected and what has happened and how much one did differ from the other.

Expected value is much more suitable to describe this.

Given the lottery chances the expected value of the pick that #1 seed will get is 2,642 which means that the average outcome is closest to #3.

#1 = 2,642
#2 = 2,979
#3 = 3,407
#4 = 4,721

In 2014 (as a #2 seed) instead of 2,979 they got #3, which is basically the expected outcome.
In 2015 (as a #3 seed) instead of 3,407 they got #3, which is a bit lucky.
In 2016 (as a #1 seed) instead of 2,642 they got #1, which is lucky.
In 2017 (as a #4 seed) instead of 4,721 they got #5, which is a bit unlucky, almost as unlucky as lucky they were in 2015, so they even out each other.

Summarized, they got what was expected in 3 years and got lucky in 2016.

All in all, you can call that bit lucky or slightly lucky, but not lucky IMO, and definitely not very lucky.

 

[elindholm]

In 2014 (as a #2 seed) instead of 2,979 they got #3, which is basically the expected outcome.
In 2015 (as a #3 seed) instead of 3,407 they got #3, which is a bit lucky.
In 2016 (as a #1 seed) instead of 2,642 they got #1, which is lucky.

And the probability of (basically expected)*(a bit lucky)*(lucky) is what?

 

[hcsilla]

You tell me.

But don't forget to include 2017 as well when the Sixers got a bit unlucky.

 

[elindholm]

You tell me.

I already told you. It's low.

But don't forget to include 2017 as well when the Sixers got a bit unlucky.

Minimally. Also, don't forget that the value of picks decreases faster than linearly. The gap between #2 and #3 is greater than the gap between #3 and #4. So moving up is a bigger deal than moving down -- which is reinforced by the numbers I gave you.

A beginning computer programmer could easily set up a simulation. Put in the Sixers' lottery seeds for those four years and run 10,000 trials to see their expected distribution of picks. I guarantee we'd find that they did much better than the average would predict.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Hows the math argument going?

 

[elindholm]

Hows the math argument going?

Less well than you might think.

 

[BC867]

I don’t think any team is “content with remaining bad.” I think they may tolerate being bad for a short period to acquire talent, but not “content with remaining bad.”

Short period? We're going on eight years.

The Managing General Partner's expertise is as a small city banker. His priority is about MAKING MONEY.

If he did his job and lead his co-owners in that responsibility, fine. But he chose to use his position to then feed his ego and make himself an active member of the Front Office, without any skills or experience.

It is not about "any team content with remaining bad." It is about the egomaniac at the top. From there, it all flows downhill. Sadly, it has all flowed downhill.

I view Robert Server the same as the NBA viewed Donald Serling with the Clippers. The details are not the same, but the results are. Our team is a laughingstock which has taken only baby steps forward since the embarrassment at the start of the season. I, as a Suns fan, have no respect for that kind of leadership.

Until he leaves, I don't see us as even reaching the middle of NBA respectability. Unfortunately, it could very well lead to the Suns being bought out and moving to Seattle. How would Arizonans feel then?

 

[Cheesebeef]

Short period? We're going on eight years.

The Managing General Partner's expertise is as a small city banker. His priority is about MAKING MONEY.

If he did his job and lead his co-owners in that responsibility, fine. But he chose to use his position to then feed his ego and make himself an active member of the Front Office, without any skills or experience.

It is not about "any team content with remaining bad." It is about the egomaniac at the top. From there, it all flows downhill. Sadly, it has all flowed downhill.

I view Robert Server the same as the NBA viewed Donald Serling with the Clippers. The details are not the same, but the results are. Our team is a laughingstock which has taken only baby steps forward since the embarrassment at the start of the season. I, as a Suns fan, have no respect for that kind of leadership.

Until he leaves, I don't see us as even reaching the middle of NBA respectability. Unfortunately, it could very well lead to the Suns being bought out and moving to Seattle. How would Arizonans feel then?

Here’s the thing BC... I don’t think Ouchie and I disagree with you about Sarver AT ALL.

Which is prob why we think Salvation can only come from hardcore tanking where we give ourselves the best chance to get lucky enough in the lottery that we can get great players to change the team’s fortunes.

As much as we wish different, Sarver ain’t going anywhere... great FA ain’t coming here because of that and thus the ONLY way we probably get out of this hole is... luck.

Does that make sense to you?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Here’s the thing BC... I don’t think Ouchie and I disagree with you about Sarver AT ALL.

Which is prob why we think Salvation can only come from hardcore tanking where we give ourselves the best chance to get lucky enough in the lottery that we can get great players to change the team’s fortunes.

As much as we wish different, Sarver ain’t going anywhere... great FA ain’t coming here because of that and thus the ONLY way we probably get out of this hole is... luck.

Does that make sense to you?

Yes, this exactly. I never even THOUGHT about tanking, much less claymores for it, during Jerry’s reign because I believed he wanted to, and would effectively pursue actions to, win. I don’t see Sarver as having colangelo’s hoops acumen or respect in the L hence the need to look elsewhere (aka the luck of the draft) to provide us our desires salvation.

 

[BC867]

Ouchie and Cheese, you're right. But, except for Booker and Warren, the whole team needs to be remade. Unless we can attract some mid-career veterans to go with the young guys as they develop, it could take five to ten years. I just find it so hard to accept "Wishing & Hoping" and losing indefinitely.

How I wish the other owners of the Suns would strip Sarver of his title of Managing General Partner. He has only 30% of the vote. The sooner that happens, the sooner they stop stabbing in the dark and changing philosophies every few years.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Short period? We're going on eight years.

The Managing General Partner's expertise is as a small city banker. His priority is about MAKING MONEY.

If he did his job and lead his co-owners in that responsibility, fine. But he chose to use his position to then feed his ego and make himself an active member of the Front Office, without any skills or experience.

It is not about "any team content with remaining bad." It is about the egomaniac at the top. From there, it all flows downhill. Sadly, it has all flowed downhill.

I view Robert Server the same as the NBA viewed Donald Serling with the Clippers. The details are not the same, but the results are. Our team is a laughingstock which has taken only baby steps forward since the embarrassment at the start of the season. I, as a Suns fan, have no respect for that kind of leadership.

Until he leaves, I don't see us as even reaching the middle of NBA respectability. Unfortunately, it could very well lead to the Suns being bought out and moving to Seattle. How would Arizonans feel then?

I find it funny how much you are willing to overlook things to make your argument. It is a complete fallacy to say this team has been bad for eight years. This team was right on the edge of the playoffs two years in a row just a few years ago (2013/14 and 2014/15) until things fell apart in the middle of the 2014/15 season. The major mistake (in hindsight, because most thought it was a good move at the time) was signing IT to an already solid team. Had they not signed him they probably go on to win about 50 games again and make the playoffs, but they did and the rest is history.

 

[3rdside]

Had they not signed him they probably go on to win about 50 games again and make the playoffs, but they did and the rest is history.

This is a nice thought but the problem with it i think is that we still had mcd regardless if we traded for IT or not - had he not screwed it up by bringing him in, I’m fairly certain he would have found some other way to screw things up later.





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[MaoTosiFanClub]

How I wish the other owners of the Suns would strip Sarver of his title of Managing General Partner. He has only 30% of the vote. The sooner that happens, the sooner they stop stabbing in the dark and changing philosophies every few years.

I'd be willing to guess he has some legal contingencies and/or partners with personal ties that would prohibit this from happening. He's the owner and from everything I have heard he will be for a long time. The guy is a dick but he's not stupid, he sees where NBA team prices are going in general and even more so once he gets his new arena. Selling now would be financial idiocy.

 

[hcsilla]

I already told you.

You did and you were wrong as I pointed out but you keep ignoring it.

Let's try once again.

The #2 lottery seed has a .561 chance of getting a top three pick.
The #3 lottery seed has a .472 chance of getting a top three pick.
The #1 lottery seed has a .250 chance of getting the top pick.

For the three years 2014-16, given their lottery position, they had only a .066 chance of picking as high as they did. That's 1/15.

You miss the point that the Sixers did not only get a top3 pick in 2014 and 2015, in both cases it was #3.

So your calculation is wrong and so is your interpretation:

If another team should have happened to be the #2, #3, and #1 lottery seeds in those years, they would have been 14 times as likely to get worse picks than to do as well as the Sixers did. Call it good luck or bad luck, but it's a mathematical fact.

No, it is not.

Your calculation is saying what is the probability of a team getting a top3 pick AND getting a top3 pick AND getting a top1 pick.

You are saying that if the pick is lower than #3 in 2014 OR lower than #3 in 2015 OR lower than #1 in 2016 then the final outcome is worse.

That's wrong.

There are numerous scenarios when PHI gets a worse pick than #1 in 2016, yet the final outcome is better since they could have got a better pick in 2014 and/or 2015.

Like #2 in 2014, #2 in 2015 and #2 in 2016. Or #1, #3, #2 or #1, #2 #3 and so on.

 

[hcsilla]

Minimally.

Almost as minimally as they got lucky in 2015.

 

[BC867]

Here's part of an interesting article about advertisers boycotting the owner of newspapers in the Pittsburgh area because his Pirates traded Andrew McCutchen.

There is a lot of talk from team owners about sports teams being community assets and quasi-public institutions when the team owner needs something. Say, a new ballpark or a tax abatement or parking and traffic allowances and free security for their entertainment venue in the form of police patrols and the like. They also use the whole community spirit thing when they want to leverage the public as a marketing tool. Think of parades and rallies and things in which the sports team is cast as part of the fabric of the community in order to drive ticket and merchandise sales.

When it comes to the revenues, expenses and profits of the team, however, owners demonstrate just how private and closely-held their businesses are. That extends to player acquisitions and trades. It would never occur to Bob Nutting that failing to maintain the Pirates’ recent winning track record and then trading Andrew McCutchen was a thing about which the public was entitled to input. The public’s anger at him may cross his mind, but believe me, neither he nor any other sports owner believes that the public has an actual say in such matters. It’d be just as logical to them for the public to suggest that they can tell him which entree to order the next time he sits down to eat at Altius.

All of which is to say that, however understandable and noble the intentions behind the advertiser boycott, Bob Nutting does not care and will not make decisions about his baseball team with such concerns in mind. It’s his meal. he’ll order whatever he wants. Even if you’re the one paying for it.

The first paragraph supports my point of view about sports teams being in the public domain and the responsibility of the owners to honor that.

The second and third paragraphs shoot it down with reality. I'll have to read it over and over every time I get ticked off at Sarver and his amateur handling of the Suns. Damnit!

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/02/02...cott-over-the-andrew-mccutchen-trade/?ref=yfp

 

[Hoop Head]

Here's part of an interesting article about advertisers boycotting the owner of newspapers in the Pittsburgh area because his Pirates traded Andrew McCutchen.

The first paragraph supports my point of view about sports teams being in the public domain and the responsibility of the owners to honor that.

The second and third paragraphs shoot it down with reality. I'll have to read it over and over every time I get ticked off at Sarver and his amateur handling of the Suns. Damnit!

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2018/02/02...cott-over-the-andrew-mccutchen-trade/?ref=yfp

Interesting. I wonder if there could be a similar boycott organized against Sarver bank and real estate firms. I don't imagine Suns fans could hurt his businesses that much, but it's an interesting idea. If he owned something else it'd be easier to effect it, like in the case of the Pirates owner also owning a newspaper. Looking up info on Sarver he's sold off most of his AZ banking ties since he's been the owner of the Suns. As of now it looks like he's still the chairman and CEO of Western Alliance Bancorporation which is business based banking, not something that's available for direct consumers.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't think now is the time to complain about Sarver with the Suns poised to take the next step. There was plenty of reason to complain about him in the past, however, he has allowed McDonough the opportunity to right the ship.

If the ship looks like the it will not float after this summer, there will be plenty of time to complain then.

 

[Hoop Head]

I don't think now is the time to complain about Sarver with the Suns poised to take the next step. There was plenty of reason to complain about him in the past, however, he has allowed McDonough the opportunity to right the ship.

If the ship looks like the it will not float after this summer, there will be plenty of time to complain them.

I'm not complaining about Sarver. He's made his mistakes over the years but I haven't come down as hard on him as others. He's in a tough position though. Part of the issue with him I think has to do with achieving a lot of success right away as an owner. I know the Suns didn't win a title but he signed Nash during his first offseason and then owned a team that was consistently winning 50-60 games a year that were legit title contenders through his first 6-7 seasons as the owner. He was pushed right into that right away and it was largely due to just 1 free agency acquisition, signing Nash and for less than the max allowed also. That sort of success can't be duplicated. I think it took him a good 3-4 years to understand how lucky he was to experience that when he bought the team and it was outside of the norm.

I was just thinking though about how that is an interesting way to get back at an owner of a team, by organizing a boycott of the other businesses that they own. That stands a better chance of getting through to the owner than billboards like those fans tried to organize on Reddit with the #SarverOut hashtag.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Answer = NO

 

[JCSunsfan]

McD has had some mistakes. But getting Payton and Troy Daniels for nothing is not one of them.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

McD has had some mistakes. But getting Payton and Troy Daniels for nothing is not one of them.

Looking at every move individually I don’t know that you can find more than 4-5 in total were actually bad. That includes trades, free agency and draft picks. His player relations seems to be his biggest weakness, but hopefully he has learned a lesson there.

 

[Hoop Head]

I know he could have handled the Bledsoe situation better but it was a pretty bad move on Bledsoe's part to ask out on Twitter like he did and then try to backtrack by saying he was at the hair salon. I can understand McD's frustration there. I don't think McD would have handled that like he did if Bledsoe didn't try throwing that hair salon nonsense out there, that was insulting to believe that anyone would buy that excuse.

 

[Chaplin]

A lot of McD’s problems are the moves he HASN’T made.

 

[Matt L]

I know he could have handled the Bledsoe situation better but it was a pretty bad move on Bledsoe's part to ask out on Twitter like he did and then try to backtrack by saying he was at the hair salon. I can understand McD's frustration there. I don't think McD would have handled that like he did if Bledsoe didn't try throwing that hair salon nonsense out there, that was insulting to believe that anyone would buy that excuse.

The way he publicly handled the Dragic and Bledsoe situations leave a bad taste in my mouth. I think he could have handled both situation without airing their grievances to the public. I think both Dragic and Bledsoe handled it poorly on their end too but someone needs to be an adult in these situations and when it comes down to it, the GM should be the adult.