Since I Promised My Round 1 Preferred Selection

[Cbus cardsfan]

In the mix at 24 should be Olave and Jameson Williams. Williams is a top 7-10 talent with absolute game breaking speed.

 

[Russ Smith]

I'm just going to have to assume that you haven't read what I've been saying all season. My belief is it's more scheme than anything else. You'll see the Cardinals getting gashed by the run, but little old Vance doesn't change his scheme to fit what the offense is doing.

I don't think it's scheme at all and my evidence is when JJ Watt was healthy for 7 games the run defense was mostly better. We had issues yes, but him drawing doubles regularly made it easier on everyone else. When he got hurt it's like the offense got an extra blocker there was nobody on our defense that had to be doubled on run downs. That exposed Simmons as a poor run defender and we eventually had to start bringing our safeties up and then that allowed teams to pass all over us. The reason Murphy looked worse the 2nd half of the year IMO is he had less safety help. Same with Marco although he was also coming off injury.

So while I agree we really need CB's, that need is exacerbated by our inability to stop the run. We get a guy who can draw 2 blockers consistently our run defense gets better, we don't have to play the safeties up as much, and our pass defense gets better too.

I agree with Harry this is a CB deep draft, the problem is it's NOT a QB deep draft. The new SI draft mock for example the first QB taken is at 17 https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...rankings-big-board/15xmexshw7ywc1u9ijg32sjwhr

I guess it's actually a ranking of player not a mock but they have 8 CB's ranked as first rounders and in many of the drafts I've seen the top 20 CB's are all gone by the 20th pick. Same with edge.

In this ranking if the draft played out the way they rank it, I would take Drake London or McKinnie the CB from UW or Gardner the CB from Cincy although I'm skeptical on Gardner I'm not sure he's twitchy enough to play CB he reminds me quite a bit of Antrell Rolle in that he looks more like a safety than CB?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

That's not the point.

Plenty of comparable players taken on day three.

Are we still talking about Jordan Davis? If so, no one in the draft compares to him.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Traditionalist = Advocate of drafting a player regardless of what position he plays. Thinking the value of a ILB or RB or NT is anywhere in the ballpark of a EDGE, OT, or EDGE. Keim has continued to focus on the low impact position, aka, ILB while seemingly ignoring CB & OT over the years. Hence why he has drafted 5(!!!!!) of them within the first two rounds while he has drafted only 1 CB & 1 OT in that same time frame.

Just because it hasn’t worked out drafting run stuffers in later rounds means we should draft them in round 1, that just means Keim isn’t good at his job & should be fired.

He clearly stated that he would value “EDGE, OT, or EDGE” (guess you really EDGE) over other positions unless there’s a clear talent difference. I agree with him. I’m not passing on Luke Kuechly for DJ Humphries. That said, I have zero faith Keim could identify the next Kuechly (considering how many swings and misses he has). But also this: I also do not have any faith he could identify the next wirfs or Jaire Alexander either. So what does it matter while we are stuck with keim?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

But context does matter. If it comes to the #6 Edge and #5 CB or the #1 NT the value calculation has changed. A guy who starts for 5 years or more on the defensive line is worth more than an Edge or CB you reached for and didn't pan out after 2 to 4 years.

I am not locked in on Davis. There are several terrific picks we can make at 23 if the cards fall our way. Context matters.

Talent matters

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm just going to have to assume that you haven't read what I've been saying all season. My belief is it's more scheme than anything else. You'll see the Cardinals getting gashed by the run, but little old Vance doesn't change his scheme to fit what the offense is doing.

So it’s your opinion that we have a talented enough defensive line. Just making sure I understand your position.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Not saying they are . I'm just saying that it's still stupid to draft a defensive tackle run stopper in round one. That's how you build a horrible team..

I think it’s dumb at the top of the round. By the last third of the round I think you need to start thinking talent over everything else. All things being equal let value of position and need become differentiators.

 

[Russ Smith]

In the mix at 24 should be Olave and Jameson Williams. Williams is a top 7-10 talent with absolute game b

Williams just tore his ACL though we're going to need a guy who's immediately available, he MIGHT be ready by then but he might not.

Olave is fast, compared to Will Fuller, we could use the speed I guess. I actually want a bigger player at that WR spot.

 

[ajcardfan]

This idea about scheme over our current talent being the problem...

The scheme was fine if you have players beating blocks or disrupting in the backfield. That was not happening. Instead our guys were getting handled mostly one on one.

Put Davis over center and he can bull rush a lot of centers right into the QBs lap. Or, he just shoots either A gap and has to be double teamed. And he beats double teams.

Yeah, yeah yeah.... he isn't a sure thing. But who the hell is? Go back and look at the first round the last five years. You will see more misses than hits. Even by the teams everyone admires.

 

[cardpa]

This draft is deep on CBs. I’d think they might target a CB in round 2. I haven’t posted this before but when the Bucs won the Super Bowl many touted their versatile LBs. I think the Cards admired and tried to emulate that success, yielding Simmons & Collins. That strategy seems to be a failure. I‘m releasing Pugh. I see a couple of reasonably priced FA guards the Cards could target. They should re-sign Ertz & Conner. They should extend Humphries.

Harry you may be in favor of releasing Pugh, but I'm willing to bet the team tries to extend him and reduce his cap hit for 2022 by converting his salary into a signing bonus.

 

[DVontel]

He clearly stated that he would value “EDGE, OT, or EDGE”

He asked me for my definition of a traditionalist was. I never said or implied he was for or against it. Not understanding this.

I’m not passing on Luke Kuechly for DJ Humphries

Yea, I agree. I’m also not passing on Tristan Wirfs for Isaiah Simmons. They were in the same draft & it’s not a hindsight thing since I was arguing for it in real time.

I also do not have any faith he could identify the next wirfs or Jaire Alexander either. So what does it matter while we are stuck with keim?

This is why he shouldn’t be here anymore. I don’t think we should be fine with drafting a lower impact player just because our idiotic GM doesn’t know how identify the right one. Otherwise, we’ll just remain an already low ceiling team.

 

[DVontel]

If it comes to the #6 Edge and #5 CB or the #1 NT the value calculation has changed

The #6 EDGE & #5 CB could also be the in both very strong EDGE & CB classes while the #1 NT could also be the product of a very weak NT class. The #6 EDGE in the class actually looks to be the guy Harry mentioned in OP, Jermaine Johnson. The #5 CB seems to be Trent McDuffie or Roger McCreary. All being good picks at our spot. Unlike Jordan Davis, all of those guys will be on the field a lot more than 25.2 snaps per game.

A guy who starts for 5 years or more on the defensive line is

Jordan Davis carries a lot of bad weight. I’m not even sure if he’ll even be productive for two years.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

The #6 EDGE & #5 CB could also be the in both very strong EDGE & CB classes while the #1 NT could also be the product of a very weak NT class. The #6 EDGE in the class actually looks to be the guy Harry mentioned in OP, Jermaine Johnson. The #5 CB seems to be Trent McDuffie or Roger McCreary. All being good picks at our spot. Unlike Jordan Davis, all of those guys will be on the field a lot more than 25.2 snaps per game.


Jordan Davis carries a lot of bad weight. I’m not even sure if he’ll even be productive for two years.

I thought I remember reporters saying that he trimmed down 15 pounds for the national championship game...

 

[Totally_Red]

Sadly we don't get a comp pick for Reddick because you don't get comp picks for players you don't pick up fifth year option on, which we foolishly did not do.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

He asked me for my definition of a traditionalist was. I never said or implied he was for or against it. Not understanding this.


Yea, I agree. I’m also not passing on Tristan Wirfs for Isaiah Simmons. They were in the same draft & it’s not a hindsight thing since I was arguing for it in real time.


This is why he shouldn’t be here anymore. I don’t think we should be fine with drafting a lower impact player just because our idiotic GM doesn’t know how identify the right one. Otherwise, we’ll just remain an already low ceiling team.

First, yeah you got that one right but I don’t think at the time they were as highly regarded as one and other - at least not in the media. It’s entirely possible that keim graded them Kuechly and Humphries. If he did, he made the “right” choice according to logic. That doesn’t mean it was the actual right choice due to his poor talent evaluation skills, but that the decision making process wasn’t broken. For instance, if they actually were Kuechly and Humphries and he had drafted Humphries due to LT being a higher value position (your argument) he’d have failed.

 

[reebokalone2001]

Mel Kiper had Davis picked in the 17th. He is also a big fan of Drake London, had him at NO. 10 pick. Most of the guys talked here, like Olave, London, Gardner, (Jameson) Williams were mocked o go before our picks. He had us taking George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue, about whom I have no knowledge.

 

[Stout]

Not saying they are . I'm just saying that it's still stupid to draft a defensive tackle run stopper in round one. That's how you build a horrible team..

So you wouldn't draft a Cam Heyward in round 1. Check.

 

[DVontel]

So you wouldn't draft a Cam Heyward in round 1. Check.

This is where you slipped up Stout, lol. Cam Heyward ain’t just a run-stopper. He has an Arsenal of moves while also having the ability to push the pocket. Just look at how many sacks he has gotten over the years. Hell, he played both DT & DE coming out. He can play 1st, 2nd, & 3rd down regardless of how many yards to go. That’s very valuable & round 1 worthy.

 

[Harry]

I don't think it's scheme at all and my evidence is when JJ Watt was healthy for 7 games the run defense was mostly better. We had issues yes, but him drawing doubles regularly made it easier on everyone else. When he got hurt it's like the offense got an extra blocker there was nobody on our defense that had to be doubled on run downs. That exposed Simmons as a poor run defender and we eventually had to start bringing our safeties up and then that allowed teams to pass all over us. The reason Murphy looked worse the 2nd half of the year IMO is he had less safety help. Same with Marco although he was also coming off injury.

So while I agree we really need CB's, that need is exacerbated by our inability to stop the run. We get a guy who can draw 2 blockers consistently our run defense gets better, we don't have to play the safeties up as much, and our pass defense gets better too.

I agree with Harry this is a CB deep draft, the problem is it's NOT a QB deep draft. The new SI draft mock for example the first QB taken is at 17 https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...rankings-big-board/15xmexshw7ywc1u9ijg32sjwhr

I guess it's actually a ranking of player not a mock but they have 8 CB's ranked as first rounders and in many of the drafts I've seen the top 20 CB's are all gone by the 20th pick. Same with edge.

In this ranking if the draft played out the way they rank it, I would take Drake London or McKinnie the CB from UW or Gardner the CB from Cincy although I'm skeptical on Gardner I'm not sure he's twitchy enough to play CB he reminds me quite a bit of Antrell Rolle in that he looks more like a safety than CB?

I’m confused. You‘ve seen a draft where the top 20 picks were CBs?

 

[Harry]

Mel Kiper had Davis picked in the 17th. He is also a big fan of Drake London, had him at NO. 10 pick. Most of the guys talked here, like Olave, London, Gardner, (Jameson) Williams were mocked o go before our picks. He had us taking George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue, about whom I have no knowledge.

Long gone by Cards‘s pick

 

[Russ Smith]

I’m confused. You‘ve seen a draft where the top 20 picks were CBs?

8 of the top 25.

We pick 23rd I think in that draft we'd get the 8th CB. I'm not sure the 8th Cb is actually better value than Davis would be.

 

[Stout]

This is where you slipped up Stout, lol. Cam Heyward ain’t just a run-stopper. He has an Arsenal of moves while also having the ability to push the pocket. Just look at how many sacks he has gotten over the years. Hell, he played both DT & DE coming out. He can play 1st, 2nd, & 3rd down regardless of how many yards to go. That’s very valuable & round 1 worthy.

Except you said DT is not a premium pick; you did not specify what kind of DT. The truth is, there are a host of players in your "you can't pick them in round 1" that teams would be crazy not to select. Blanket truths are anything but.

 

[DVontel]

Except you said DT is not a premium pick; you did not specify what kind of DT. The truth is, there are a host of players in your "you can't pick them in round 1" that teams would be crazy not to select. Blanket truths are anything but.

I said you don’t draft guys that can’t play passing downs in the 1st round. I specifically noted that a couple of times on the first couple of pages. If you watched Cam Heyward, you would clearly know that he’s more than just only a run-stuffer. So yea, I did specifically say what kind of DT.

You don’t draft guys that are liabilities on passing downs in the first round.

 

[Krangodnzr]

So you wouldn't draft a Cam Heyward in round 1. Check.

Holy crap. See @DVontel post.

A DT who gets 3 pressures and 1.5 sacks a year isn't worth a 1st round pick even if he is a really good run defender.

Even if the Cardinals don't find many guys on day two or three doesn't mean it's a good idea. That's how you get Dan Williams instead of a really good CB or pass rusher, guys who actually create turnovers.

 

[oaken1]

“He is better than our D- replacement level players”. I guess. Not a ringing endorsement.


So why when I go to Panther fansites/forums, they don’t talk about him being a difference maker? Aka, the 7th overall pick not being a difference maker? I at least expect a very good DT at that spot, not just a “quality” one.


Oh it is. Draft one of the least valuable spots on defense & continue to ignore the way more important positions on defense like EDGE & CB. That is absolutely a Steve Keim move.


We, or at least I, can only hope.

You saying you wouldn't draft Aaron Donald in the first? Reggie White? Donky Kong?
It's not the pick. It's the player.
Rather dude is a NT, DT, DE,OLB,CB,OT,TE,WR,OG,...whatever,...it don't matter if you get ten years of all pro play from him.
We had Larry,.... I didn't want him at that pick but I knew he was gonna be the pick because Denny was his godfather...
I harped on his **** route running all through his rookie contract and especially when it came time to renew. But Larry proved to be worth his draft slot.... lots of car salesmen got an extra year or two in the NFL because they had Larry to throw to..
On the other end we got Marco Wilson...4th round pick, premium position drafted with a non premium pick. Do we discount his play just because he was a 4th round pick? If he continues to develop, three years from now is anyone gonna claim he should get a smaller contract because he was only a fourth round pick? Maybe that's why Brady took all those small contracts with new England, because he was only a 6th round pick.

But speaking of pick value...maybe at 25 there is only one guy left that has a first round grade...and he is a OG.... so you would take the next edge guy instead even if he is rated third round?
Obviously some positions are harder to come by so when there's a guy there you take him.
But we shouldn't get hung up on positions... Obviously we need to replace Jones and get another starting quality corner. But we have other needs too, some more immediate than others... Og,oc, dt,de,olb,cb,wr,te,rb are all needs, some as immediate upgrades and others to replace guys who will be gone in a season or two