Still like the Marbury trade?

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm
On top of that I've always been convinced that Jason Kidd would have left the Phoenix Suns high and dry last summer.

I know you're convinced of that, but I'm not. After all of the talk and speculation about him leaving the Nets, he didn't. The Suns would surely have had to max him out, as the Nets did, but I don't see a problem with that.

Whether or not you agree that Marbury was worth the max, I find it hard to fathom why you would think that Jason Kidd is.

 

[elindholm]

Sorry, one other thing:

With Jason Kidd there would have been no Amare Stoudemire.

That isn't necessarily true. Stoudemire managed to slip under most team's radar (although apparently not the Blazers'). It's possible that the Suns, even with a low draft pick, could have worked a trade to move up to where Stoudemire would be available. It's not as though the players taken 11-15 in that draft were world-beaters.

It might not have worked out that way, but there was no guarantee that the Suns would get Stoudemire by tanking, either. They just happaned to get lucky.

 

[elindholm]

Whether or not you agree that Marbury was worth the max, I find it hard to fathom why you would think that Jason Kidd is.

Huh? Do you think Kidd is not a max player? I must not be understanding you correctly.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm
Whether or not you agree that Marbury was worth the max, I find it hard to fathom why you would think that Jason Kidd is.

Huh? Do you think Kidd is not a max player? I must not be understanding you correctly.

Correct. I do not think Jason Kidd is worth a max contract.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm
Sorry, one other thing:

With Jason Kidd there would have been no Amare Stoudemire.

That isn't necessarily true. Stoudemire managed to slip under most team's radar (although apparently not the Blazers'). It's possible that the Suns, even with a low draft pick, could have worked a trade to move up to where Stoudemire would be available. It's not as though the players taken 11-15 in that draft were world-beaters.

It might not have worked out that way, but there was no guarantee that the Suns would get Stoudemire by tanking, either. They just happaned to get lucky.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda--that's a pretty weak arguement, as I'm sure you'd agree, Eric.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
Sorry, one other thing:

With Jason Kidd there would have been no Amare Stoudemire.

That isn't necessarily true. Stoudemire managed to slip under most team's radar (although apparently not the Blazers'). It's possible that the Suns, even with a low draft pick, could have worked a trade to move up to where Stoudemire would be available. It's not as though the players taken 11-15 in that draft were world-beaters.

It might not have worked out that way, but there was no guarantee that the Suns would get Stoudemire by tanking, either. They just happaned to get lucky.

I do not agree with the premise that trading Kidd for Marbury had the purpose of leading to a terrible season so they could draft Amare. A stronger case would be that the trade of Cliff Robinson was more responsible for the sharp decline than the Kidd trade, since it was a pure cap dump.

Also, the trade of Rogers and Delk for JJ and the pick that went for Casey did not help the team immediately.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
I do not agree with the premise that trading Kidd for Marbury had the purpose of leading to a terrible season so they could draft Amare. A stronger case would be that the trade of Cliff Robinson was more responsible for the sharp decline than the Kidd trade, since it was a pure cap dump.

Also, the trade of Rogers and Delk for JJ and the pick that went for Casey did not help the team immediately.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I believe the Suns management thought they would be competitive with Marbury. However the end result of that season and especially the two big trades in the summer was that the Suns were in position to draft Amare Stoudemire. I do not believe that would have been the case with Jason Kidd.

Joe Mama

 

[binkar]

elindhome, why do you already assume NONE of the prospects or people we will draft will be good. YOu have the most negative attitude I have seen in quit some time.

 

[elindholm]

elindhome, why do you already assume NONE of the prospects or people we will draft will be good.

When you buy a scratch lottery ticket, do you think it's probably a winner or a loser? If you're playing craps and need 10 to make your point, do you think you're going to get it?

It's not an assumption. It's a statistical probability. Most prospects about whom little is known turn out to be not very good. That's just a fact. A team might get lucky and stumble across a winner once in a while, but to expect it to happen is folly.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by elindholm
When you buy a scratch lottery ticket, do you think it's probably a winner or a loser?

What if you have 10 scratch tickets? At least one of them is going to be worth something, wouldn't you think?

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
elindhome, why do you already assume NONE of the prospects or people we will draft will be good.

It's not an assumption. It's a statistical probability. Most prospects about whom little is known turn out to be not very good. That's just a fact. A team might get lucky and stumble across a winner once in a while, but to expect it to happen is folly.

Is it just luck? The Suns seem to do considerably better than average when it comes to using their draft picks. No one hits 1000, but when you compare a team like Cleveland and the Suns at using their draft picks effectively - I think the Suns probability of doing well is vastly higher.

2003 -- Zarko Carbakapa (Serbia)
-- Leandro Barbosa (Brazil)
2002 -- Amare Stoudemire, Cypress Creek HS (Florida)
-- Casey Jacobsen, Stanford
2001 -- None
2000 -- Iakovos "Jake" Tsakalidis, AEK (Greece)
1999 -- Shawn Marion, UNLV
1998 -- None
1997 -- None
1996 -- Steve Nash, Santa Clara
1995 -- Michael Finley, Wisconsin
Mario Bennett, Arizona State
1994 -- Wesley Person, Auburn
1993 -- Malcolm Mackey, Georgia Tech
1992 -- Oliver Miller, Arkansas
1991 -- None
1990 -- Jayson Williams, St. John's
1989 -- Anthony Cook, Arizona
1988 -- Tim Perry, Temple
Dan Majerle, Central Michigan

Obviously there are few clunkers here, but it is not a bad record.

 

[Errntknght]

Eric, "But if it was unrealistic to pin high hopes on Cabarkapa, is it any less unrealistic to pin them on Lampe?"

If one were in hopes of either developing into a PF/C then Lampe is more realistic because at a younger age he has a considerably larger body. At SF Zarko isn't a bad bet or even Z and Marion filling the 2 & 3 slots where Z is the SG on offense and the SF on defense.

As for hopes of Lampe becoming a good NBA C or PF, he seems to have some of the needed skills so they are not totally baseless. The evidence is thin so far but we have to go with what little we've seen. To put my hopes in perspective, I've been hoping for decades that the Suns would hire a capable, experienced NBA coach so that it mattered whether we had good players or not - and compared to those hopes I have to rate Lampe as a lead-pipe cinch.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by elindholm
elindhome, why do you already assume NONE of the prospects or people we will draft will be good.

When you buy a scratch lottery ticket, do you think it's probably a winner or a loser? If you're playing craps and need 10 to make your point, do you think you're going to get it?

It's not an assumption. It's a statistical probability. Most prospects about whom little is known turn out to be not very good. That's just a fact. A team might get lucky and stumble across a winner once in a while, but to expect it to happen is folly.

Well, the Suns have certainly done well for themselves lately through the draft and by taking other team's prospects that they had given up on. Besides, for every player you can point out that was highly touted and fizzled we can probably point out one who ended up being a good player.

Jake Tsakalidis was supposed to be a lottery pick, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Suns had him rated as a lottery player. Last year the Phoenix Suns had Lampe as one of the top three players on their draft board along with Zarko Cabarkapa and Leandro Barbosa. I have yet to hear of anybody who doesn't like Vujanic. He's putting up great numbers in Europe. I'm optimistic that he will contribute neck season.

Joe Mama

 

[newfan101]

Originally posted by elindholm
elindhome, why do you already assume NONE of the prospects or people we will draft will be good.

When you buy a scratch lottery ticket, do you think it's probably a winner or a loser? If you're playing craps and need 10 to make your point, do you think you're going to get it?

It's not an assumption. It's a statistical probability. Most prospects about whom little is known turn out to be not very good. That's just a fact. A team might get lucky and stumble across a winner once in a while, but to expect it to happen is folly.

Did you seriously just compare a 1 in 120,526,770.00 chance at winning the lottery with the chances that a NBA draft pick will actually be good? Are they scouting lottery numbers now?

I've held out of this thread for a while, and can deal with the negativity because I've always respected your posts. But now you're just being ridiculous. YES, it is a statistical probablity that Lampe, the draft picks, and our euro point guard will be benchwarmers before they'll be stars. Tell us something we don't know. I do, however, think that 4 players drafted among 50 or 60 have a better chance of being good then you or I have at winning the lottery. Come on.

Anyway, nothing that your saying is out of line, it's just based entirely on presumption. There are so many variables that could happen this offseason, between draft picks and position, cap room, expansion, and trades, that taking this ultimate negative spin, at the ALL-STAR BREAK no less, just seems negative for the sake of being negative. Everything you've said could happen, and yet none of it could happen.

I say give it a couple of years. Then, if everything goes according to the odds and they're still laboring in mediocrity, then please feel free to come on this board and give us all one big "I told you so." Until then, this seems silly and a waste of time.

 

[elindholm]

Until then, this seems silly and a waste of time.

Well, I guess you told me.

I said "scratch" lottery tickets. You know, the ones with the weird silver coating, and sometimes you win like $5. Those odds aren't so bad.

But on to your more general point: It isn't that I think Lampe, Vujanic and so on will necessarily be awful. It's that I don't think they will be stars. And if they turn out to be merely "okay" players -- which is what's most likely -- then the Suns gave up an All-Star in the prime of his career for a handful of role players. Trades like that are almost always bad.

Edit:

If any one of the players the Suns can add to the roster as a result of this trade -- Lampe, Vujanic, a higher draft choice, or a free-agent signing -- turns out to have a Marbury-level impact, I will come back and admit I was wrong. And if I forget, I invite everyone to remind me.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm

But on to your more general point: It isn't that I think Lampe, Vujanic and so on will necessarily be awful. It's that I don't think they will be stars. And if they turn out to be merely "okay" players -- which is what's most likely -- then the Suns gave up an All-Star in the prime of his career for a handful of role players. Trades like that are almost always bad.

I might also say that giving a max contract to a shoot first point guard with a career 43.3% shooting percentage and a career 31.9% percentage from beyond the arc (over 22% of his shots are three pointer by the way) is always a bad move.

 

[newfan101]

Originally posted by elindholm


Well, I guess you told me.

I said "scratch" lottery tickets. You know, the ones with the weird silver coating, and sometimes you win like $5. Those odds aren't so bad.

Sorry, I didn't mean for it too come across that way. I just never understood the rational behind getting overly negative over a woulda, coulda, shoulda scenario. You have to admit ... you gave this trade the most negative spin possible on your original post. I'm not saying it wont come true, but you seem normally to be more reasonable than that. I guess if I had watched that horror show at Golden State I wouldn't be so postitive either.

 

[PhxGametime]

I saw Vujanic 2 years ago and he's good but not great - he has decent athleticism it appears but not enough to convince me that he's a star (for those soon to mention upside). I was more impressed with Barbosa playing against USA than Vujanic. I'm sure he's improved in this period of time but no more than Rookies in NBA under the 3 year label. He could end up as starter but level of play is similiar to Barbosa - I am really excited to have Milos on team though but not sure he's at level some on board feel.

 

[elindholm]

I just never understood the rational behind getting overly negative over a woulda, coulda, shoulda scenario.

Chaplin said something similar. But it's "woulda shoulda coulda" either way. Dumping Marbury was a bold move, but staying the course would also have been a bold move. The path the Suns chose isn't more glamorous just because it's superficially more dramatic.

Every personnel decision an organization makes, even if it's to keep someone, is important and potentially risky. And that means that any time a fan questions the organization's moves, he is vulnerable to someone saying that he's indulging in "wouldas." So does that mean we aren't allowed to say anything? Or is it acceptable to say, "I would have preferred a different set of risks to what we're currently facing"?

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by BbaLL_31
I saw Vujanic 2 years ago and he's good but not great - he has decent athleticism it appears but not enough to convince me that he's a star (for those soon to mention upside). I was more impressed with Barbosa playing against USA than Vujanic. I'm sure he's improved in this period of time but no more than Rookies in NBA under the 3 year label. He could end up as starter but level of play is similiar to Barbosa - I am really excited to have Milos on team though but not sure he's at level some on board feel.

All the reports are that Vujanic has improved dramatically over the last few years. In any case, he could easily be a better outside shooting prospect than anyone available in this year's draft. Considering the problems the Suns run into when playaing against the zone, this is no small consideration.

 

[newfan101]

Originally posted by elindholm


Every personnel decision an organization makes, even if it's to keep someone, is important and potentially risky. And that means that any time a fan questions the organization's moves, he is vulnerable to someone saying that he's indulging in "wouldas." So does that mean we aren't allowed to say anything? Or is it acceptable to say, "I would have preferred a different set of risks to what we're currently facing"?

I don't think anyone's telling you not to say ANYTHING, but the last statement would have gotten the point accross just as well without going to the trouble of pointing out the negative in every single aspect of the trade.

The big problem with this line of reasoning is that we knew what we had before, and we have no clue what we have now. We can all have an intelligent debate as to whether or not the team could have succeeded with Marbury, and taking a negative stance would be totally acceptable. You could also have taken the same stance when we traded Kidd for Marbury, because we knew what we were getting. But you're arguing that we should have kept the prize instead of opting for curtain #3, because the odds are greater that it will be a years supply of toothpaste instead of the new car. Maybe, but it's a blind debate at that point. It could be a car, it could be a furniture set, or it could be the toothpaste. But why get worked up till you see what it is?

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by newfan101
I don't think anyone's telling you not to say ANYTHING, but the last statement would have gotten the point accross just as well without going to the trouble of pointing out the negative in every single aspect of the trade.

elindholm is taking the position that trading a superstar for prospects and draft picks and cap space for free agents is a mistake because they might not be superstars.

The issue he ignores is the question as to whether Marbury really is a superstar, or just merely a very good player. If Marbury is a superstar, then the chances that another superstar will be found is of course very low. But if Marbury is just "very good", then the chances that the Suns will find a "very good player" amoung the unknowns is actually pretty good.

My opinion is that Marbury is very good, but not a superstar. He is fairly one dimensional, has an inconsistent outside shot, he is not an especially good defender, and does not run the break very well. He is very good at what he does, but I would not put him in the Kobe, Carter, T-Mac, Allen class of guards. He's very good, but not great.

 

[elindholm]

But you're arguing that we should have kept the prize instead of opting for curtain #3, because the odds are greater that it will be a years supply of toothpaste instead of the new car.

Heh, okay, fair enough. But what's been getting on my nerves are all of these posts about how great the new car is going to be, and how thrilled we'll all be to drive it.

Also, I think it's fair to say that some people on this board have already been proven partly wrong abut the trade. Many projected that Lampe would start playing immediately. There was even some discussion about how the playoffs this year weren't necessarily out of reach. And the general consensus, surely, was that the Suns would not be this bad.

So, to go back to the mystery door, it's like someone has opened it a tiny crack, and you can barely see a little bit inside, and while there might be a car hiding in there somewhere, it sure doesn't look like it.

 

[elindholm]

The issue he ignores is the question as to whether Marbury really is a superstar, or just merely a very good player.

Thanks for the clarification.

I ignore this issue because no one can agree on what a "superstar" is. We might as well argue about whether Marbury is a "badass."

I think Marbury is a top-20 player. I think the Suns are quite unlikely to get another player of Marbury's impact from their grab bag of Halloween handouts. And I've already promised to admit I was wrong if any of the new players does turn out to have that kind of impact.

If you're going to claim that I don't know what I'm talking about, at least be straight about what I'm saying.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Originally posted by elindholm
But you're arguing that we should have kept the prize instead of opting for curtain #3, because the odds are greater that it will be a years supply of toothpaste instead of the new car.

Heh, okay, fair enough. But what's been getting on my nerves are all of these posts about how great the new car is going to be, and how thrilled we'll all be to drive it.

Also, I think it's fair to say that some people on this board has already been proven partly wrong abut the trade. Many projected that Lampe would start playing immediately. There was even some discussion about how the playoffs this year weren't necessarily out of reach. And the general consensus, surely, was that the Suns would not be this bad.

So, to go back to the mystery door, it's like someone has opened it a tiny crack, and you can barely see a little bit inside, and while there might be a car hiding in there somewhere, it sure doesn't look like it.

Agree totally. I find it hard to believe a Marbury, Johnson, Marion, Stoudemire, ____ lineup, with any development, wouldn't at least be able to contend on a yearly basis....It was a ballsy move by BC, and if it turns out, he is a genius. However, if these players don't pan out, we will all pine for what might have been. Should be an interesting journey...