Still like the Marbury trade?

[newfan101]

Originally posted by elindholm


Heh, okay, fair enough. But what's been getting on my nerves are all of these posts about how great the new car is going to be, and how thrilled we'll all be to drive it.

Also, I think it's fair to say that some people on this board has already been proven partly wrong abut the trade. Many projected that Lampe would start playing immediately. There was even some discussion about how the playoffs this year weren't necessarily out of reach. And the general consensus, surely, was that the Suns would not be this bad.

So, to go back to the mystery door, it's like someone has opened it a tiny crack, and you can barely see a little bit inside, and while there might be a car hiding in there somewhere, it sure doesn't look like it.

I totally understand. I think some people do get overly excited about people like Lampe. I guess I've always felt that he's a few years away from doing anything, because I never buy into the hype. But until he get's a few years under him, I'm not bothered by him not playing, and don't consider it to be a red mark against the trade.

I actually consider it positive that for the first time in years we can even talk about getting a car. Maybe we wont get the great one. Maybe we end up with one that always breaks down or one that never gets out of the garage. But as nice a car as we had before, you have to admit it wasn't giving us great mileage.

 

[elindholm]

I guess I've always felt that he's a few years away from doing anything, because I never buy into the hype. But until he get's a few years under him, I'm not bothered by him not playing, and don't consider it to be a red mark against the trade.

I actually consider it positive that for the first time in years we can even talk about getting a car....

Okay, but if we are willing to wait a few years on Lampe and this summer's draft additions, why couldn't we wait on the Marbury core? In the summer of 2006, Hardaway's contract is done. So the financial mess that the Suns were in would have, for the most part, solved itself in two-plus years. There would have been a lot of treading water in the meantime, but as long as that's what's going to happen anyway, why not keep the team's best player?

All of the financial flexibility that the Suns have now isn't worth much if they won't be ready to compete for another two or three years. If the Hardaway savings is spent on players like Dale Davis and Brent Barry for two years each, what good does that do the franchise?

 

[newfan101]

Originally posted by elindholm

Okay, but if we are willing to wait a few years on Lampe and this summer's draft additions, why couldn't we wait on the Marbury core? In the summer of 2006, Hardaway's contract is done. So the financial mess that the Suns were in would have, for the most part, solved itself in two-plus years. There would have been a lot of treading water in the meantime, but as long as that's what's going to happen anyway, why not keep the team's best player?

All of the financial flexibility that the Suns have now isn't worth much if they won't be ready to compete for another two or three years. If the Hardaway savings is spent on players like Dale Davis and Brent Barry for two years each, what good does that do the franchise?

Once again, that's pure speculation. I can agree with you IF that happens, but I'm not going to get upset unless it does.

Getting back to your other point, I guess I have to bring up my problems with the former team. Technically we gave Marbury 2 1/2 years, and as much as I liked him (better than Kidd I might add), I could never figure out why we couldn't win more. You mentioned earlier not to discount last season as part of Marbury's legacy. But you shouldn't discount his season before, when we went 36-46. Two and a half years with Marbury, Marion, and Hardaway yielded us pretty poor results, and I have a hard time fathoming why that core couldn't even make the playoffs without a 20 year old high school power forward. Those aren't the kind of core's champions are built around. Even KJ, Hornecek and Majerle got us 50 wins before getting a legit power forward.

Remember, we only made the playoffs by one game last year. One last second miracle shot missing against Seattle could have had us in the lottery last year as well. Your point about waiting till Hardaway's contract expired is well taken, but I'm not sure we were as close to breaking through as our playoff performance against San Antonio would have us believe.

 

[Chaplin]

We've been speculating for days and days now about just how good players are, how much better they will get, etc.

How about putting down some solid opinions about what should happen this summer (not next summer or in 2-3 years)?

1) No more projects! Projects are worthless because by the time your "project" blossoms, your project from 3 years earlier has peaked and in some instances, is on a downward spiral. Looking at the Suns' drafts over the years, a majority of them were used on players that could contribute right away (Marion, Stoudemire, Finley).

2) If they're going to trade away Jahidi White, then BY GOD make sure you get something AT LEAST as good as him in return. That just makes good basketball sense.

3) IF McDyess can be signed at the minimum, then by all means, do it. If not, then let him walk.

4) NO contracts for chronically injured players! (you know what and who I mean)

5) Come back to the SoCal Summer Pro League. We didn't do it last summer for the first time, and look where our season went.

6) Do not extend Mike D'Antoni. I like him so far, but give him more time to prove himself as the right coach for THIS team before extending him. That was the mistake the C's made with Frank Johnson.

There are probably a bunch more, but it's getting late and I can hardly think straight as it is...

 

[Errntknght]

Eric, "Also, I think it's fair to say that some people on this board have already been proven partly wrong abut the trade. Many projected that Lampe would start playing immediately."

I'm don't recall anyone projecting that Lampe would start playing immediately and certainly not many did. I was surprised that so few people mentioned him at all - early on the talk was about Vujanic. Heck Lampe went right onto the IL making it clear he wasn't going to be playing immediately so there wasn't time for many people to make the erroneous projection. I've been the strongest exponent of Lampe playing but I'm sure I never projected when D'A would give him PT - though I've repeatedly expressed the opinion that it is stupid not to be giving him any.


"And the general consensus, surely, was that the Suns would not be this bad."

I think that's accurate... some people were hopeful that McDyess would be able to help right away since he was actually playing for the Knicks. Probably some thought Eisley would fill the void somewhat. I think most of the optimism came from the imminenet return of Amare and Zarko plus the play of Barbosa rather than from the Knicks contribution to our roster.

Right now I think it's not known how good the Suns group of players is - IMO, what we've learned is that D'Antoni is not much of a coach and what he's gotten from the team is little indication of it's quality. To be fair, we only saw Stephon & the team in the hands of poor coaches so to say that they'd never amount to a contender was very rash.

Come to think of it, another benefit of the trade is that we got even younger which increases the odds somewhat that the C's will finally trip up and put a decent coach in charge. I figure we'll have to go through another year of D'Antoni and it could well be two years as he's got the Italian thing in his favor. It may even be that D'A is a fast learner or smart enough to hire an assistant who knows how to put together an NBA offense and defense. Byron Scott was that smart...

There is also a downside that no one's mentioned - Marbury was going to be the cornerstone of the new direction. He delivered just about what you'd expect and lasted two years. What does that tell you about the C's sense of direction? Yeah, I agree they need a compass.


"So, to go back to the mystery door, it's like someone has opened it a tiny crack, and you can barely see a little bit inside, and while there might be a car hiding in there somewhere, it sure doesn't look like it."

I guess 'car-ness' is in the eye of the beholder... I took my peek and saw a wide body and glints of shiny metal... I'm happy. It might even be a Mack truck!


Incidentally, Eric, it doesn't take one player as good as Marbury to make the trade a success. That isn't likely but two or three quality players could match his value. Of course, it's almost certainly never going to be settled... years from now people will probably argue which team got the better of the deal.

 

[cly2tw]

Marbury definitely is a superstar. He is the best PG and definitely more of a franchise player than Allen or Carter. He is only behind Kobe, McGrady, Iverson in the guard rankings. Only, he never got a team that really complemented his talent besides the one in Minnesota, which he walked out of due to stupidity of youth. We all said that he needed good shooters around him which the Suns didn't have.

The Suns hoped futilely that Marbury would play an uptempo game, which is not his strength, and gave Marion a max contract to ensure a running mate. That's a conceptual disaster. Once this mistake was done and realized midseason, the only way to improve is to concede it and break this core up. Since Marion has had negative trade value, it's only logical to give up Marbury while unloading Penny's contract for prospects and cap rooms. We'll see what the team will be in the future.

 

[scotsman13]

Originally posted by elindholm
elindhome, why do you already assume NONE of the prospects or people we will draft will be good.

When you buy a scratch lottery ticket, do you think it's probably a winner or a loser? If you're playing craps and need 10 to make your point, do you think you're going to get it?

It's not an assumption. It's a statistical probability. Most prospects about whom little is known turn out to be not very good. That's just a fact. A team might get lucky and stumble across a winner once in a while, but to expect it to happen is folly.

ok elindhome, here is some stats for you. since the 94 draft 44% of the suns first round picks have turned into allstars or will shortly be allstars (amare). the names nash, finley, person, marion and amare have all be suns finds in the first round. also understand that the average pick during that time has been 21, the suns have done unbelieveably well in the draft. now if you look at some of the other very good players and think that the average life span of an nba player is 5 years in the nba for a first round pick then you start to understand just how good this teams scouting program is. so if the suns are going to get a high lottery pick i would say that the odds show that we will get an allstar out of it. this isnt craps or the state lottery where your chances are per set, this is the nba lottery where if you go out and have good judges of talnet you can come away with some gold.

 

[schutd]

Originally posted by Chaplin
Maybe we just need to clear up some imperceptions.


#2: Joe Johnson's recent "swoon" is only a swoon because you call it that. Marion's has lasted all season. JJ's lack of hitting 20 points in the last 3 games is the least of our worries.

And keep in mind that this "swoon" has only happened in the past three games, coincidentally when SToudamire has led the team with over a 25ppg average over that span. SOmeones production has to fall off in that scenario. So I would be VERY hesitant to call it a swoon. More like being complimentary.

 

[Chaz]

Originally posted by schutd
And keep in mind that this "swoon" has only happened in the past three games, coincidentally when SToudamire has led the team with over a 25ppg average over that span. SOmeones production has to fall off in that scenario. So I would be VERY hesitant to call it a swoon. More like being complimentary.

Also defenses now game plan to stop JJ. I expect he will adjust and teams will adjust as other players step up as they are left more open due to the attention on JJ.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by SirChaz
Also defenses now game plan to stop JJ. I expect he will adjust and teams will adjust as other players step up as they are left more open due to the attention on JJ.

I think JJ is also effected by the new chemistry of playing with Amare. We rag on Marion about his outside shooting, but no team could leave him alone in the corner. With Amare, they are less concerned about giving him open outside looks and are thus packed into the paint.

This will pass as JJ and Amare learn to play the two man game. No opponent can double two guys at the same time, so they should be able to exploit this once they know how each other plays.

 

[elindholm]

And keep in mind that this "swoon" has only happened in the past three games, coincidentally when SToudamire has led the team with over a 25ppg average over that span. SOmeones production has to fall off in that scenario. So I would be VERY hesitant to call it a swoon. More like being complimentary.

I don't think Stoudemire or any other Sun would take it as a compliment. One of the big things about Johnson's improved play had been his shooting. During the three-game "whatever," not only is his scoring down, but he is shooting 19-49 (.388) overall and 3-16 (.188) from three-point range. So you can call it whatever you like, but there's no question that, since the increased attention, he's been much closer to the Johnson "of old" than to the budding star that emerged with the trade.

 

[elindholm]

the names nash, finley, person, marion and amare have all be suns finds in the first round. also understand that the average pick during that time has been 21, the suns have done unbelieveably well in the draft.

Lampe and Vujanic were not drafted by the Suns.

 

[Chaz]

Originally posted by George O'Brien
I think JJ is also effected by the new chemistry of playing with Amare. We rag on Marion about his outside shooting, but no team could leave him alone in the corner. With Amare, they are less concerned about giving him open outside looks and are thus packed into the paint.

This will pass as JJ and Amare learn to play the two man game. No opponent can double two guys at the same time, so they should be able to exploit this once they know how each other plays.

 

[elindholm]

Incidentally, Eric, it doesn't take one player as good as Marbury to make the trade a success. That isn't likely but two or three quality players could match his value.

You're right that it isn't likely. Elite teams are built around eite players, not large groups of nice guys.

 

[elindholm]

Getting back to your other point, I guess I have to bring up my problems with the former team. Technically we gave Marbury 2 1/2 years, and as much as I liked him (better than Kidd I might add), I could never figure out why we couldn't win more.

I absolutely agree that, in total, Marbury's tenure with the Suns was a disappointment. But he was still young and maturing, and (as I said before) it was certainly worth trying a real coach to see if Marbury would respond to someone with experience and authority. (Compare Jason Williams and Hubie Brown.) It was too soon to commit to Marbury through the end of the decade, but it was also too soon to give up on him altogether. Talents like his are rare, and if they come with a lot of baggage, bad habits, and injured teammates, 2 1/2 years may not be enough time to figure out whether the partnership will work.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm

I absolutely agree that, in total, Marbury's tenure with the Suns was a disappointment. But he was still young and maturing, and (as I said before) it was certainly worth trying a real coach to see if Marbury would respond to someone with experience and authority. (Compare Jason Williams and Hubie Brown.) It was too soon to commit to Marbury through the end of the decade, but it was also too soon to give up on him altogether. Talents like his are rare, and if they come with a lot of baggage, bad habits, and injured teammates, 2 1/2 years may not be enough time to figure out whether the partnership will work.

While I pretty much agree with you when we're discussing the basketball value of the trade, you also choose to ignore the financial ramifications of the deal most of the time.

I'd hate to go to a party where you show up! You must be a killjoy!

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
the names nash, finley, person, marion and amare have all be suns finds in the first round. also understand that the average pick during that time has been 21, the suns have done unbelieveably well in the draft.

Lampe and Vujanic were not drafted by the Suns.

Nor was JJ. But they were obtained based on their draft analysis and not their NBA performance. The Suns did not actually draft Barbosa, the Spurs did. Yet he is treated as if they drafted him.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You're right that it isn't likely. Elite teams are built around eite players, not large groups of nice guys.

Nice? In my terminology there are superstars, very good players (stars), solid starters, role players, and projects/marginals.

If by "nice" players you mean solid starters, then I'm sure you are right. If by "nice" you mean stars that are not in the super elite category, then I'm not so sure. It depend on the mix of stars and whether you think someone is a superstar or not.

In any case, I do not believe Stephon is a superstar. He is too one dimensional. Superstars are super no matter what kind of team they are on, while stars need the right supporting cast to shine.

 

[elindholm]

you also choose to ignore the financial ramifications of the deal most of the time.

Actually, no, I discussed them elsewhere in this thread.

 

[Chaz]

Originally posted by elindholm

You're right that it isn't likely. Elite teams are built around eite players, not large groups of nice guys.

The problem is Marbury is not an elite player. At least he has never proved to be one yet.

He has exceptional skills but that is not all it takes to be an elite player IMO.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
you also choose to ignore the financial ramifications of the deal most of the time.

Actually, no, I discussed them elsewhere in this thread.

Sort of. What you said was:

5. Enough cap room to sign free agents above the mid cap range in 2004

The difference between a $7 million per year player and one at the MLE is not that great, in my opinion. Anyone who is at that level tries to find a team willing to offer them more, but if they can't, the MLE isn't bad money. The Suns were unwilling to spend the MLE before, but it isn't that they were unable to.

The Suns were at $65 million with several younger players scheduled for contract renewals even when Penny came off the board. In an age of luxury tax, only billionaires can afford payrolls like that of the Knicks, Maves and Blazers. With mid cap costing $10 million due to the luxury tax, that is pretty steep for a guy that that is not good enough for teams that have cap space.

BTW, which mid cap guy would you have taken over last off season? Amoung big men there was Michael Olowokandi, Eldon Campbell, and Predrag Drobnjak.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by elindholm
Incidentally, Eric, it doesn't take one player as good as Marbury to make the trade a success. That isn't likely but two or three quality players could match his value.

You're right that it isn't likely. Elite teams are built around eite players, not large groups of nice guys.

First, the Suns have already swapped a group of good players for an elite player at least twice in their recent history:

Good players-->Barkley-->good players-->Kidd-->Marbury-->good players

I think they'll be able to make the same trade again some time in the future. (FWIW, Jerry West seems to agree with me.)


Second, the Suns still have a budding elite player in Amare, as well as a potential #2 in Joe Johnson and an established #3/#4 in Shawn Marion. Even if they stand pat, the Suns are going to have a very good team, as soon as the young players get some experience, coaching and chemistry.

(And you know the Suns won't be standing pat.)


One effect of this trade is that it gives the young players breathing room to make mistakes on the court and figure each other out. Maybe now, they'll develop more quickly than they otherwise would have...

 

[elindholm]

Sort of. What you said was:

The difference between a $7 million per year player and one at the MLE is not that great, in my opinion.

Um, yeah, that's part of what I wrote.

I also wrote,

So, let's take stock. In exchange for their best player and team leader, the Suns received:

1. Financial flexibility, which the Suns can use to pursue free agents who won't have the impact Marbury would have.

and

Hardaway was nothing more than a financial problem. I would find an owner willing to spend to put a winner on the floor.

and

Saving money on Hardaway's deal is a good thing. "Saving" money by dumping Marbury is a strange way of thinking about it. Sure, he would have been overpaid by the end of his extension, and I still think the extension was a mistake. But you need good players in order to win, and those players cost money. Over the next five or six years, the money "saved" on Marbury -- who, like him or not, is surely a top-20 player in this league -- will be spent on other players. Will they be as good? Will they provide as much bang for the buck? Maybe and maybe not, but the point is, once the Suns hire those other players, the Marbury "savings" disappears.

and most likely some other things, but I'm tired of searching.

 

[elindholm]

Good players-->Barkley-->good players-->Kidd

This is a good point, which I confess I overlooked. It is indeed possible that the Suns' bounty from the Marbury trade will bring them several decent-to-good players who can later be packaged in a trade for a superstar.

I am happy to stand corrected on that possibility, and I hope it happens.

 

[elindholm]

In my terminology there are superstars, very good players (stars), solid starters, role players, and projects/marginals.

Ah, that's where we're different. Among other things, my list starts from the worst players and goes to the best. I have total scrubs, players who suck, okay players, good players, badasses, and r00lers.

No wonder we never agree.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm
In my terminology there are superstars, very good players (stars), solid starters, role players, and projects/marginals.

Ah, that's where we're different. Among other things, my list starts from the worst players and goes to the best. I have total scrubs, players who suck, okay players, good players, badasses, and r00lers.

No wonder we never agree.

What's a r00ler?