Stoudemire eyeing life in LA?

[elindholm]

This is the NBA and if things turn sour, players (esp. of amares stature) can force their way out.

SO until their is a report on amares signing, we should consider the worst case scenario

If you want to be that paranoid, what difference will it make when he signs an extension? He could still "force his way out" if he really made up his mind to.

The Suns lost Johnson precisely because he wasn't that valuable to them. If losing Johnson was going to cripple the franchise, the Suns would simply have matched the Hawks' offer, and that would have been that.

 

[George O'Brien]

This is the NBA and if things turn sour, players (esp. of amares stature) can force their way out.

SO until their is a report on amares signing, we should consider the worst case scenario

If you want to be that paranoid, what difference will it make when he signs an extension? He could still "force his way out" if he really made up his mind to.

The Suns lost Johnson precisely because he wasn't that valuable to them. If losing Johnson was going to cripple the franchise, the Suns would simply have matched the Hawks' offer, and that would have been that.

This is the paradox of JJ. I don't think there is anyone on this board who thought JJ was WORTH the $70 million. Like the Suns, we felt it was necessary to grit out teeth an overpay because he was an important piece of the team. Just letting him go would have been a total disaster.

Did JJ's conversation change the Suns perspective or simply give Sarver an excuse? I don't know. I can certainly understand Sarver's reluctance to break the bank on a guy whose statistics were wildly higher than previous years in his contract year. However, when it came to the negotiations it does not look like the Suns caved when they pushed for the Atlanta pick (which was what bothered Belkins).

Effectively, this deal was JJ for Diaw, Jones, two draft picks and the remaining trade exemption. If Diaw plays well, this may someday look like a very good deal. However, I thnk the main reason the Suns did as well as they did was because they were NOT anxious to move JJ so Atlanta didn't have much leverage.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

What worries me here is the potential for an out clause in Amare's contract. I'm still annoyed that the Suns can't sign Amare to a six-year extension.

According to the new CBA, maximum contracts are now limited to 5 years, rather than 6 years.

Amare wants to have the ability to opt out of his contract after three years, I assume that he would want to do this so he can sign yet another MAX contract in three years, with an even higher salary because of the 10% salary increases from the previous three years. I do not see any other reason why he would want to opt out after three years.

 

[elindholm]

Just letting him go would have been a total disaster.

It's very good that the Suns were able to get as much as they did.

However, this smacks a little bit of the Marbury/Hardaway trade fallout. Some people on this board insisted that the trade wasn't just a salary dump, because the Suns got Lampe (who was going to be the burly stud center the franchise had never had), McDyess (who had seen the error of his ways and was ready to make a lasting commitment to the Suns), the quixotic Vujanic (who was going to electrify the backcourt), and some picks (which were going to bring in vital new talent).

Well, we saw what happened. Lampe was a bust, McDyess fled the coop again, Vujanic never showed up, and the picks were sold to trim payroll. Guess what: The Marbury/Hardaway trade was just a salary dump. But it turned out fine, because the financial flexibility enabled the Suns to right their ship quickly -- more quickly than any of us would have guessed.

What's the point? The point is that we don't know whether the collection of spare parts acquired for Johnson will amount to anything at all ... but that's okay. That even if the Suns "lost Johnson for nothing," it's not the end of the world. In today's NBA, you never lose a high-salaried player "for nothing," because the resulting financial flexibility will have its own value down the road.

In other words, we can ease up on Diaw and Jones. If they pan out, great; if they don't, whatever.

 

[elindholm]

I do not see any other reason why he would want to opt out after three years.

Also he'd be an unrestricted free agent then. Restricted free agents don't have nearly as much power.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

Even if he does become a UFA, Phoenix should still be able to offer him more $$ after three years, correct?

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Even if he does become a UFA, Phoenix should still be able to offer him more $$ after three years, correct?

I will quote my post from the first page for you.

It would be a pretty big difference in money. Assuming he opts out in 3 years and the salary cap grows to 54 million the difference will be total of 26.73 million dollars. The average salary per year would be about 1.3 million higher.


Now obviously Amare could just sign a new deal at the end of the 5 years if he went to LA to make up the money.

Of course you have to consider that when that contract would end Amare would be 32 years old (he will be 24 when his max kicks in, and add 8 more years for the 2 contracts).

The would put him at Shaq's age this year (and he got 100 million more). Of course Shaq doesn't rely on speed and athleticism like Amare does, so who knows what his value would be at that age (he would still get a very large contract, but you never know).

 

[Arizona's Finest]

This is the NBA and if things turn sour, players (esp. of amares stature) can force their way out.

SO until their is a report on amares signing, we should consider the worst case scenario

If you want to be that paranoid, what difference will it make when he signs an extension? He could still "force his way out" if he really made up his mind to.

The Suns lost Johnson precisely because he wasn't that valuable to them. If losing Johnson was going to cripple the franchise, the Suns would simply have matched the Hawks' offer, and that would have been that.

Oh Eric we have to have a talk...... Number one i think the suns equated Joes value to the team about as much as the thought of Marion's value (which goes w/o saying is very high) and that is saying alot considering our other two players are the regining MVP and the one of the best young players in the game. So the scenario didn't play out the way it did because the Suns didn't find Joe valuable enough. George is right in his following post in which he stated the team was going to grit its teeth and pay the 70 mill. He was that important to our title run. Only once Joe decided he would be a malcontent and Sarver realized we could get some value in return for JJ, it was THEN not worth matching Joes contract. It really had little to do with what the Suns felt about him as a player.

I agree that letting a high price player go is not always crippling in that at it allows for flexibility, but that argument only goes so far when a players massive contract is actually worth it to a team in terms of wins and losses. We think of the Suns dumpin Steph and Penny and getting Nash, but what about Orlando with Shaq and the massive rebuilding they have been doing ever since. Or Toronto losing Vince? How much use do you think that flexibility is going to help them? There are some players that losing for nothing but salary room is devastating, and that because those players are young and vitally important and not easily replaced. Joe is not in that category yet, but he could be one day. Thats not our gamble now...Once again though, the Suns did the right thing considering the circumstances, and it looks like it will all turn out ok down the road (but face the facts guys, our chances of a title w/o JJ are alot less for the next upcoming year.)

Paranoid i think is a poor choice of words. Many have brought up their feelings about Amare leaving, and due to the fact that it has been the lead item in three recent articles, i think its ignorant to not consider it. This is a message board after all and it is September, You can state your opinion that theres no way Amare will leave because yada yada....but its all speculation. Unless Amare Stoudamire = elindholm somehow you just have no idea. Im very happy that you have decided not to lose sleep over it, but that doesn't mean its not a a valid stance to think he will enertain the idea of leaving. Yeah, he could demand a trade even immediatly after signing the extension, but he could walk away for "nothing" if he hits UFA....( lets just say that is in the Vince/Shaq category in terms of losses instead of Steph/Penny)

Repeating my stance on this topic, the next two years are of vital importance in convincing Amare it doesn't get better than Phoenix. If he refuses to sign a contract and explore FA, it does'nt meant he will leave for sure, but ill be hoping that he enjoyed every minute of the last two years here in Phoenix while having that talk with Magic, Phil, Kobe, and Dr. Buss at one of their ocean side mansions....

BTW eric, in reading your posts the last few weeks i notice a drastic differnce from the ones previous. Almost like you have a chip on your shoulder all of a sudden....Suns withdrawal perhaps?

 

[Chaz]

The Suns lost Johnson precisely because he wasn't that valuable to them. If losing Johnson was going to cripple the franchise, the Suns would simply have matched the Hawks' offer, and that would have been that.

Excellent point.

Or they could have offerend him a max deal to start with. He would be making $90 million but he would be here.
A big part of the reason he left is because he and the Suns couldn't agree on his value.

 

[elindholm]

Oh Eric we have to have a talk...... Number one i think the suns equated Joes value to the team about as much as the thought of Marion's value

Do you mean just last summer, or before? The Suns extended Marion as soon as they had the chance. They didn't do that with Johnson. And since losing Marion this past summer wasn't an option, it doesn't matter what the Suns thought of his value then.

what about Orlando with Shaq and the massive rebuilding they have been doing ever since. Or Toronto losing Vince?

The big blow to Orlando wasn't losing O'Neal -- it was Hardaway suffering the first of his crippling injuries. Had he stayed healthy and they held onto him (which they probably would have), there's a good chance they still would have been okay.

And since Toronto was awful with Carter, you can hardly say that they're hurt by his departure.

Many have brought up their feelings about Amare leaving, and due to the fact that it has been the lead item in three recent articles, i think its ignorant to not consider it.

"Three recent articles"? So what? The way the internet works is, one person posts something, and then everyone else rushes to quote it and pass it off as his own. There is one recent article, most likely written by someone with an L.A. bias, and then some copycats.

This is a message board after all and it is September, You can state your opinion that theres no way Amare will leave because yada yada....but its all speculation.

I've said many times -- are you reading? -- that he might leave in 2009. The only other way for him to leave is to take the one-year escape contract or simply hold out. I think the chance of either of those happening is negligible, and any sensible person would agree.

Repeating my stance on this topic, the next two years are of vital importance in convincing Amare it doesn't get better than Phoenix.

Why the next two years? The only way that he'll be a free agent in 2007 is to take the one-year deal next season, and the only way he'll do that is if he's already decided to leave. If, by some incredibly remote possibility, the Suns don't have Stoudemire extended by the end of next summer, you can kiss him goodbye.

BTW eric, in reading your posts the last few weeks i notice a drastic differnce from the ones previous. Almost like you have a chip on your shoulder all of a sudden....

I have a bit more time to engage in these protracted debates, but that's the only difference.

 

[George O'Brien]

Many have brought up their feelings about Amare leaving, and due to the fact that it has been the lead item in three recent articles, i think its ignorant to not consider it.

This is a message board after all and it is September, You can state your opinion that theres no way Amare will leave because yada yada....but its all speculation.

Actually it isn't. The articles take a couple of innocent comments by Amare out of context and try to turn it into some huge scheme to steal him. You can take this nonsense seriously if you like, but if you are serious you should consider the counter arguments. The fact that the article's author has his year's wrong, has no real information about the cap implciations, and the financial hit Amare would take, dismissing comments about this as simply "yada, yada" is pretty lame.

For a variety of reasons it seems like people want to find some comparison of JJ's situation a year ago and Amare's. I think the differences are vastly more significant.

1. A year ago JJ was unproven with a lot of question marks. Amare is already an All Star, a second team All NBA, and serious MVP candidate this season.

2. A year ago the Suns were reluctant to overpay for JJ. This summer the Suns are committed to paying the max possible to Amare.

3. One of the reasons the Suns were reluctant to make a long term commitment to JJ a year ago was because they knew they would have to give Amare the max.

4. Last summer the market for wings not named Kobe was not that strong. No one doubts that Amare will get the maximum allowed because the market for superstars is through the roof.

5. Even now, there are questions about whether JJ has the personality to be a team leader - which is part of the reason he felt overshadowed on the Suns. No one doubts that Amare is the team leader (or at worst co-leader with Nash) and the team is being built around Amare.

Whatever the emotional impact of the JJ fiasco, IMHO it is absolutely irrelevant to Amare's situation and quoting some LA hack doesn't change that.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Fair enough....

Why the next two years? The only way that he'll be a free agent in 2007 is to take the one-year deal next season, and the only way he'll do that is if he's already decided to leave. If, by some incredibly remote possibility, the Suns don't have Stoudemire extended by the end of next summer, you can kiss him goodbye.


When i say the next two years im assuming Amare tells Sarver he wants to explore unrestricted free agency, and signs the one year tender after this season. I keep corrallating this to Duncan testing Free Agency a few years back and my question is was he a restricted free agent the year prior, signed the tender, and then able to shop himself around....?

JJ and Amare are completly different situations as Sarver stated in his interview with Gambo and Ash. BUT the correllation rests in that we all thought Joe was going to be in Phoenix next season about half way through last season due to his restricted status and his obvious contributions to the team (and to answer your question, this is around the time the Suns realized Joes true value to the the team. It was reinforced by his injury in the playoffs. I absolutly think that if Joe was signed to the big contract, Marion would have been gone after next season. And i believe that has less to do with trade value rather than the Suns long term preferences). Similarly we dont see Amare ever leaving, but who knows what can happen.

In all honesty that Cnnsi.com article is sensationalism at its worst and i knew that going immediatly after reading it. I just dont like the idea of the national media asking the questions about the Lakers over and over agin and keeping this idea in his head.....

 

[elindholm]

I keep corrallating this to Duncan testing Free Agency a few years back and my question is was he a restricted free agent the year prior, signed the tender, and then able to shop himself around....?

No on all counts. Duncan had already signed his first big extension and had negotiated an opt-out, which is what made him a UFA. That's the same thing Stoudemire wants to do in 2009.

I've said before, the only significant players who have taken the one-year escape contract are Olowokandi and Swift. Curry may be added to the list shortly. But not Duncan or any other All-Star.

BUT the correllation rests in that we all thought Joe was going to be in Phoenix next season

Yes we did, and we were all wrong. But our opinions don't influence what actually happens. If we all thought Marion was going to demand a trade in three months, that wouldn't make it any more or less likely. So the fact that we were wrong about Johnson really has no bearing on whether we're right or wrong about Stoudemire.

I just dont like the idea of the national media asking the questions about the Lakers over and over agin and keeping this idea in his head.....

The idea will always be in his head. We'll just have to accept that. There are no marriages in professional sports, so you're always in danger of being dumped for the guy across the street with the bigger *******.

 

[George O'Brien]

I keep corrallating this to Duncan testing Free Agency a few years back and my question is was he a restricted free agent the year prior, signed the tender, and then able to shop himself around....?

No on all counts. Duncan had already signed his first big extension and had negotiated an opt-out, which is what made him a UFA. That's the same thing Stoudemire wants to do in 2009.

I've said before, the only significant players who have taken the one-year escape contract are Olowokandi and Swift. Curry may be added to the list shortly. But not Duncan or any other All-Star.

BUT the correllation rests in that we all thought Joe was going to be in Phoenix next season

Yes we did, and we were all wrong. But our opinions don't influence what actually happens. If we all thought Marion was going to demand a trade in three months, that wouldn't make it any more or less likely. So the fact that we were wrong about Johnson really has no bearing on whether we're right or wrong about Stoudemire.

I just dont like the idea of the national media asking the questions about the Lakers over and over agin and keeping this idea in his head.....

The idea will always be in his head. We'll just have to accept that. There are no marriages in professional sports, so you're always in danger of being dumped for the guy across the street with the bigger *******.

Eric, you're such a romantic.

The CBA is set up to minimize guys jumping around until after their second contract. RFA's generally have difficult time getting serious offers from other teams. For example, Radmanovic, Ronald Murray, and Reggie Evens have not even had nibbles even though a lot of teams could use them but aren't willing to grossly overpay.

These guys may end up taking one year deals because they think they will do better a year from now. Considering the financial status of the Sonics, they may be right. But their primary problem is that no one is willing to drastically overpay to get them.

Was JJ overpaid? The Cavs signed Larry Huges for $60 million over five years and did not have to give up draft picks and a player to get him. Simmons went for $47 million. Without the Hawks, there is little chance JJ would have moved.

The Hawks had to radically overpay to have even a chance at JJ and then give up other stuff to make the deal. It takes a team in terrible shape to make such a deal and a very odd guy to want to join them. In most years and with almost any other player, the Hawks would not have been involved except to help bid up the price (a la Kenyon Martin).

 

[Arizona's Finest]

There are no marriages in professional sports, so you're always in danger of being dumped for the guy across the street with the bigger *******.

LOL... Eric sounds like you might be speaking from personal experience...

Good post though and thanks for answering my Duncan question. I was thinking that the RFA year before the UFA was now a part of all contracts due to the new CBA. But i guess that wouldnt be a retroactive clause so that really doesnt makes sense either. You cleared that up for me. I am a huge fan with alot of basketball knowledge but when it comes to CBA and salary cap implications, thats when i turn to you guys.......

 

[elindholm]

LOL... Eric sounds like you might be speaking from personal experience...

Yeah, but I didn't tell you which side of the street I was on.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

LOL... Eric sounds like you might be speaking from personal experience...

Yeah, but I didn't tell you which side of the street I was on.

 

[devilalum]

I will quote my post from the first page for you.

You're like the condecending computer guy from the SNL skit.

You know he has the answer to your question but its not worth the major serving of attitude that it costs to ask.

 

[elindholm]

You're like the condecending computer guy from the SNL skit.

I can hear it now: "The Graham-meister... Graham-a-rooney-o... Dandy Andy Fo-Fandy... the Big Grahambowsky..."

Do I have the right SNL skit?

 

[Chaz]

You're like the condecending computer guy from the SNL skit.

I can hear it now: "The Graham-meister... Graham-a-rooney-o... Dandy Andy Fo-Fandy... the Big Grahambowsky..."

Do I have the right SNL skit?

No, I believe that is the copy room guy.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

You're like the condecending computer guy from the SNL skit.

You know he has the answer to your question but its not worth the major serving of attitude that it costs to ask.

Hey, people could always just read the whole thread


Just so you know I wasn't trying to be a prick. I only have so many long winded posts I can offer up so I save them for special requests (like for azfinest )

Otherwise I don't see the harm of being quick and to the point.

 

[Chaplin]

Hey, people could always just read the whole thread


Just so you know I wasn't trying to be a prick. I only have so many long winded posts I can offer up so I save them for special requests (like for azfinest )

Otherwise I don't see the harm of being quick and to the point.

Yes.

 

[Amare32]

the sooner Amare gets this extension the quicker all this L.A talks ends.

 

[Joe Mama]

For the record, there was one person on this board who talked to long ago about the possibility that JJ would try to jump ship this summer. I was told repeatedly that I was being paranoid, and he would absolutely be a Phoenix Sun for a long time. I just thought he would go to Cleveland to play with LeBron James. I also never imagined he would get $70 million over 5 years.

Effectively, this deal was JJ for Diaw, Jones, two draft picks and the remaining trade exemption. If Diaw plays well, this may someday look like a very good deal. However, I thnk the main reason the Suns did as well as they did was because they were NOT anxious to move JJ so Atlanta didn't have much leverage.

actually the deal woes JJ for Boris Diaw, James Jones, two first-round draft picks, the remaining trade exception , and at least a 50% savings on what JJ would have been making. that's 50% on the salary cap. It's actually much, much more than that in real dollars for the first couple years.

Of course as Eric pointed out it may very well be that this is simply a deal that saves the Phoenix Suns money. We can't be sure how these young players and draft picks will pan out. I just hope that these young players are better than Lampe, none of them suffers any serious injuries, and the team doesn't trade away both of the first-round draft picks.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

I'm not concerned about trading their firsts, just about giving them away to save money.