Studying BA's Offense

[kerouac9]

What explanation? What strategic advantage? You haven't offered anything of the sort.

Estas loco, K9. Crazy.

Profound argument. It's not even fun chatting with you. You don't want to talk about anything. You just have ridiculous, incomprehensible, indefensible man-love for Tavon Austin.

 

[red desert]

Profound argument. It's not even fun chatting with you. You don't want to talk about anything.

Right back at you.

You make up stats such as Roberts and Austin RAC yards and toss them out as fact. As if that IS what will happen. When it is nothing more that made up numbers to suit your belief in the point you are trying to make. Then you get offended if your not honored for your football acumen and profound arguments.

Brother, please.

 

[JeffGollin]

Does getting the ball out of the QBs hands quickly help protect the QB from getting killed?

Yes, but the question does bring to light a mistaken tendency on the part of most of us to try to isolate each factor that goes into a passing attack (or for that matter, run game, run defense or pass defense), assign it a specific value and then treat it as an independent strength or weakness.

In actuality, most of these traits are interdependent upon one another. (For example, instead of isolating each player, think in terms of a many-tentacled "passing animal" with a brain to call plays, another brain to read defenses, arms to catch the ball, legs to run away from defenders or escape the rush, a stout hyde that can ward off would-be sackers, ability to deliver the ball on time & on target etc.). Some passing animals are better at some things than others and each - in varying degrees - have different strengths that can overcome other weaknesses,

- A QB who can get rid of the ball quicker may compensate for the inability of his receivers to get open (or vice versa).

- An OL that can sustain blocks longer can compensate for a QB who takes longer to get rid of the ball.

- A cannon for an arm can make up for a slow release because it can deliver the ball equally as quick to the receiver.

- The mental aspects of playing QB can (at least in part) make up for a lack of athletic skill.

- Marcus Allen didn't run a 4.4 or weigh 225, but he somehow had the knack for finding the end zone. (Instincts? Quickness" Vision? Think of him not as a RB but part of a complex running machine - involving blocking, play-calling, getting small thru the hole - that, for whatever reasons, resulted in a lot of touchdowns).

- It's the combination of positive and negative traits that go into a good or bad passing attack, run game etc., and seldom one specific factor all by itself. (Of course, if a player sucks badly enough in one aspect of his game, he can reach the point of no return. But usually, players suck or excel in varying shades of gray - to coin a phrase).

We all know that. (It's just that it's easier to say something like: "that guy (who may have velcro hands) can't cut worth a dime and, therefore, sucks and should be cut right now. Doesn't always work that way).

 

[kerouac9]

Right back at you.

You make up stats such as Roberts and Austin RAC yards and toss them out as fact. As if that IS what will happen. When it is nothing more that made up numbers to suit your belief in the point you are trying to make. Then you get offended if your not honored for your football acumen and profound arguments.

Brother, please.

I don't think I put them out there as fact. My argument really doesn't depend on that.

Let's look at it another way:

Arians' offenses the last three seasons have averaged just over 32 pass attempts per game. We know that we're going to plan to have 6-8 plays designed to go deep downfield. So what's reasonable to expect of the remaining 26 pass attempts to be bubble screens? 10? I think you'd agree that'd be generous. Are all of those going to go to Tavon Austin? Probably not, but lets say that half do. So 5 attempts.

A bubble screen is a high-percentage throw. Let's say that he catches 80% of those targets. So now we're at 4 receptions a game. Are you really going to say that he's going to take all of those the distance? That's insanity. If he takes one and turns it into a big play every three games, that'd be really impressive.

Is that really what you want to burn a Top 10 pick on? Really?

 

[Chopper0080]

No I don't think that. I think getting the ball out of Palmer's hands quicker would help keep rushers off him.

Also I wasn't specifically talking about bubble screens, but any route that is quick developing. Screens, drags, slants and short ins and outs to name a few.

By no means am I saying that this would stop the defense from geting to the QB faster, but only that it would get the ball out of Palmers hands fast more often.

Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk 2

Here is the problem with your arguement. Most designed QB throws in the NFL are 3 or 5 step drops, some with a designed delay, others without. Your stating that a one count route, which is what a bubble screen is, is going to make a significant difference in protection. The difference between a bubble screen and a slant is essentially two counts. There isn't a ton of difference between the protection time between one count and three count routes. The issue becomes that these routes cause defenses to bring defenders closer to the line of scrimmage. More defensive players close to the line of scrimmage limits the yards after catch on these short routes and also hurts your ability to run the ball. The natural counter to this is to then throw over the top of defenses. In order to do this, you need an offensive line to be able to block for longer than three counts in order to complete these passes. We don't have the ability to do that with our offensive line in it's current form.

Tavon Austin could be a great option for teams that have the ability to throw the ball down the field because it creates space underneath for RAC yardage. With our current offensive line, we don;t have the ability to create that space and this will just cause more defenders to come up in the box and take shots on Austin if we tried to run a bubble screen with him. In short, he does nothing to help protect the QB.

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

I don't think I put them out there as fact. My argument really doesn't depend on that.

Let's look at it another way:

Arians' offenses the last three seasons have averaged just over 32 pass attempts per game. We know that we're going to plan to have 6-8 plays designed to go deep downfield. So what's reasonable to expect of the remaining 26 pass attempts to be bubble screens? 10? I think you'd agree that'd be generous. Are all of those going to go to Tavon Austin? Probably not, but lets say that half do. So 5 attempts.

A bubble screen is a high-percentage throw. Let's say that he catches 80% of those targets. So now we're at 4 receptions a game. Are you really going to say that he's going to take all of those the distance? That's insanity. If he takes one and turns it into a big play every three games, that'd be really impressive.

Is that really what you want to burn a Top 10 pick on? Really?

The premise of your arguement is wrong. You assume he only will catch bubble screens. (I didnt read the whole thread so we may be speaking specifically ABOUT bubble screens) but Austin, according to his coaches is a very effective WR across the middle (which he ran a lot) and is very very good at finding soft spots in zones. Its after he makes those catches that contribute to awesomeness....

I think with Fitz on one side and TA in the slot, that is a lot of pressure to put on opposing defenses. You mentioned Roberts and Floyd earlier, and you cant honestly believe they put any pressure on the defense based on how much Fitz was double covered last year. Really?

 

[kerouac9]

The premise of your arguement is wrong. You assume he only will catch bubble screens. (I didnt read the whole thread so we may be speaking specifically ABOUT bubble screens) but Austin, according to his coaches is a very effective WR across the middle (which he ran a lot) and is very very good at finding soft spots in zones. Its after he makes those catches that contribute to awesomeness....

I think with Fitz on one side and TA in the slot, that is a lot of pressure to put on opposing defenses. You mentioned Roberts and Floyd earlier, and you cant honestly believe they put any pressure on the defense based on how much Fitz was double covered last year. Really?

We are only speaking of bubble screens.

I think that with a QB who can deliver the football, Roberts, Floyd, and Housler are more than adequate to put pressure on defenses. We HAVE a receiver who is supposed to put vertical pressure on defenses in the middle of the field, and his name is Rob Housler. He's got to catch the ball (and maybe score a TD), but it seems to me that Keim is going to give him every opportunity to prove himself.

I just don't believe that Austin can contribute in this offense enough to justify a Top 10 selection for this team. Fitz is going to get 40% or more of all pass targets. Michael Floyd should become a reliable 3rd-down chain mover and intermediate target this year--an upgrade over Early Doucet, who was supposed to fill this void. Roberts is an inferior prospect to Austin in the role of a slot receiver to take quick passes and make something happen, but he's someone we have already acquired at a very low price and can perform these duties.

 

[Chopper0080]

We are only speaking of bubble screens.

I think that with a QB who can deliver the football, Roberts, Floyd, and Housler are more than adequate to put pressure on defenses. We HAVE a receiver who is supposed to put vertical pressure on defenses in the middle of the field, and his name is Rob Housler. He's got to catch the ball (and maybe score a TD), but it seems to me that Keim is going to give him every opportunity to prove himself.

I just don't believe that Austin can contribute in this offense enough to justify a Top 10 selection for this team. Fitz is going to get 40% or more of all pass targets. Michael Floyd should become a reliable 3rd-down chain mover and intermediate target this year--an upgrade over Early Doucet, who was supposed to fill this void. Roberts is an inferior prospect to Austin in the role of a slot receiver to take quick passes and make something happen, but he's someone we have already acquired at a very low price and can perform these duties.

Agreed. Very little value involved in drafting an undersized, slot WR in the top 10. Especially when you consider how many really good WR prospects declare every year and the increased number of top athletes playing the position in high school and college.

 

[red desert]

The premise of your arguement is wrong. You assume he only will catch bubble screens. (I didnt read the whole thread so we may be speaking specifically ABOUT bubble screens) but Austin, according to his coaches is a very effective WR across the middle (which he ran a lot) and is very very good at finding soft spots in zones. Its after he makes those catches that contribute to awesomeness....

I think with Fitz on one side and TA in the slot, that is a lot of pressure to put on opposing defenses. You mentioned Roberts and Floyd earlier, and you cant honestly believe they put any pressure on the defense based on how much Fitz was double covered last year. Really?

Not to mention his top end value on special teams. And locker room moxie. Here I really am just speculating (okay I'm speculating about the entirety of the TA discussion) but in listening to the guy speak, I get that oozes leadership, and moxie.

 

[kerouac9]

Not to mention his top end value on special teams. And locker room moxie. Here I really am just speculating (okay I'm speculating about the entirety of the TA discussion) but in listening to the guy speak, I get that oozes leadership, and moxie.

Ah... He's not Peter Warrick.

He's Ted Ginn, Jr.

How'd that work out?

 

[LVCARDFREAK]

We are only speaking of bubble screens.

I think that with a QB who can deliver the football, Roberts, Floyd, and Housler are more than adequate to put pressure on defenses. We HAVE a receiver who is supposed to put vertical pressure on defenses in the middle of the field, and his name is Rob Housler. He's got to catch the ball (and maybe score a TD), but it seems to me that Keim is going to give him every opportunity to prove himself.

I just don't believe that Austin can contribute in this offense enough to justify a Top 10 selection for this team. Fitz is going to get 40% or more of all pass targets. Michael Floyd should become a reliable 3rd-down chain mover and intermediate target this year--an upgrade over Early Doucet, who was supposed to fill this void. Roberts is an inferior prospect to Austin in the role of a slot receiver to take quick passes and make something happen, but he's someone we have already acquired at a very low price and can perform these duties.

My bad on the bubble screens....

I dont have the faith in MF you seem to have....in fact at times he looked awful, but the line I have bolded in red above is not without merit. I like TA much more than you do and feel he can be a special player (and will be) but I understand the arguement itself b/c I feel the same way about drafting a guard. Warmack, like TA, may be the second coming, but a guard in the top 10? Where is the value in that? What can you, or anyone, point to to say he will make an impact?

With TA I see big plays but you see limited touches which = limited impact, which I understand. I feel the same way about a guard. I just dont feel the divide between Warmack and a guy we would take in rd 2-3 would be substantial enough, and more importantly impactful enough, to warrant a top 10 selection.

 

[red desert]

Ah... He's not Peter Warrick.

He's Ted Ginn, Jr.

How'd that work out?

Actually, I believe he is PP21 part deux...

At the end of day, whether TA is a great role player or a game changing weapon is the million dollar question, can we agree on that? The best part of this scenario is that BA and Co. are making the call and not Wiz and Co.

I do think TA is in play. You do not. That's cool.

 

[Mitch]

I can guarantee you, TA is in play with the Cardinals...especially if Fisher, Ansah and Jordan go in the top six.

I don't see them taking a guard in round one, unless they trade down.

The discussion at #7, imo, if Fisher, Ansah and Jordan are gone would be between TA and Jarvis Jones.

Several mocks now have TA going in the top 6---he's getting a good deal of action at #6 with the Browns.

Virtually every high profile draft guru has said that TA is the most explosive and dynamic offensive player in the draft...and none of them seemed concerned at all about him being 5'8 1/2.

Just as I tried to suggest early on about the letting go of Denny Green, Matt Leinart, CKW, AW and Rhodes...what I am trying to suggest is that this is a draft that will not be an offensive lineman fest for the Cardinals...it's been said time and time again by the new HC. "There's not a bad body in that room." They have every intention of coaching up the current talent.

They like Fisher because they consider him one of the BPA...which is the team's philosophy now in the first round.

Another surprise player near the top of their board?

I will guarantee you that TE Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame is in the discussion. The TE is an absolute key position in BA's offense....but they might feel confident they could take Zach Ertz or Gavin Escobar in round 2, which would allow them to address another position at #7.

CB Dee Milliner---is in the discussion, for sure...possibly even FS Eric Reid, who is an ideal fit for Bowles' defense.

As for taking a player at #7 that the pundits have rated alter on in the first round...they could give two hoots.

They want to take---as BA has adamantly repeated: "a difference maker" at #7.

 

[kerouac9]

I can guarantee you, TA is in play with the Cardinals...especially if Fisher, Ansah and Jordan go in the top six.

LOLs. From whence does this "guarantee" spring? Is it the same place that you got Arians' prototype for TE sizes and speeds? The same place where you got Santonio Holmes' rookie stats?

 

[kerouac9]

My bad on the bubble screens....

I dont have the faith in MF you seem to have....in fact at times he looked awful, but the line I have bolded in red above is not without merit. I like TA much more than you do and feel he can be a special player (and will be) but I understand the arguement itself b/c I feel the same way about drafting a guard. Warmack, like TA, may be the second coming, but a guard in the top 10? Where is the value in that? What can you, or anyone, point to to say he will make an impact?

With TA I see big plays but you see limited touches which = limited impact, which I understand. I feel the same way about a guard. I just dont feel the divide between Warmack and a guy we would take in rd 2-3 would be substantial enough, and more importantly impactful enough, to warrant a top 10 selection.

I was in favor of the Michael Floyd pick when it happened. Keep in mind that Floyd's problems were widely believed to be mental, and Arians runs a much more simplified playbook than what Whisenhunt slammed on the table.

As for the guard question, I'm kind of with you. That's why I'm fine with, and completely expect, the Cards to draft Lane Johnson in two weeks. You can put Johnson in at guard and he'll be an upgrade on what we have immediately, and you can kick him out to tackle in two years when you're able to cast off Levi. Or you can just switch'em.

In this draft, I think the difference between Warmack/Cooper and a guard we'd get in the 2nd or 3rd round would be pretty profound, at least from a day-one contribution standpoint. Chopper believes that drafting Warmack would be franchise-defining, but I don't think that this coaching staff or this front office believes that offensive linemen are worth much.

What I do agree with Chopper with is that Warmack/Cooper/Long will give you marginal improvement on every play. Every run play is going to have a slightly better chance of success. Every pass attempt will have a little more time. On a play-by-play basis it might not be much, but over 60 snaps in a game? Some 900 snaps in a season? Imagine what a 5% greater success rate on every down would do for you over the course of a season.

 

[Chopper0080]

I was in favor of the Michael Floyd pick when it happened. Keep in mind that Floyd's problems were widely believed to be mental, and Arians runs a much more simplified playbook than what Whisenhunt slammed on the table.

As for the guard question, I'm kind of with you. That's why I'm fine with, and completely expect, the Cards to draft Lane Johnson in two weeks. You can put Johnson in at guard and he'll be an upgrade on what we have immediately, and you can kick him out to tackle in two years when you're able to cast off Levi. Or you can just switch'em.

In this draft, I think the difference between Warmack/Cooper and a guard we'd get in the 2nd or 3rd round would be pretty profound, at least from a day-one contribution standpoint. Chopper believes that drafting Warmack would be franchise-defining, but I don't think that this coaching staff or this front office believes that offensive linemen are worth much.

What I do agree with Chopper with is that Warmack/Cooper/Long will give you marginal improvement on every play. Every run play is going to have a slightly better chance of success. Every pass attempt will have a little more time. On a play-by-play basis it might not be much, but over 60 snaps in a game? Some 900 snaps in a season? Imagine what a 5% greater success rate on every down would do for you over the course of a season.

In fairness I believe either Warmack or Cooper would be franchise defining. It would finally show a commitment to the offensive line that we haven't seen since the early 2000's when we added LJ Shelton, Anthony Clement, Pete Kendall, and Leonard Davis. That didn't pan out as well as hoped, but it showed a committment to being dominant up front.

As far as the rest, you said it as good as I could. People discount the impact that offensive linemen give you on offense. They impact every offensive snap which is only trumped by the QB. Your offensive line makes your RB better. It makes your wide receivers better and TE's as well. Your offensive line allows your offense to control the tempo of the game. You can go up-tempo or you can slwo the game down. The more athletic your offensive line is, the easier it is for your offensive to get numbers on the play side of a running play. As teams improve their defensive front 7 players, your offensive line is your best tool to neutralize those players. The idea that drafting interior linemen in the first round is poor value is living in the past. Top OGs are getting tackle money in free agency for a reason. These players play almost every play and impact the chance of those plays to be successful. Great value IMO.

I am with the group who believe the Cardinals will take Lane Johnson, but my personal preference is either Warmack or Cooper, whichever player the coaching staff feels fits their scheme best.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

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[az jam]

I am with the group who believe the Cardinals will take Lane Johnson, but my personal preference is either Warmack or Cooper, whichever player the coaching staff feels fits their scheme best.

I really think that the Dolphins or Chargers will trade up to grab Lane Johnson in front of us. I think Cleveland would do it as they have no 2nd round pick.
However, then Warmack or Cooper will become our pick, not a bad consolation prize.

 

[kerouac9]

I really think that the Dolphins or Chargers will trade up to grab Lane Johnson in front of us. I think Cleveland would do it as they have no 2nd round pick.
However, then Warmack or Cooper will become our pick, not a bad consolation prize.

I'd be surprised if anyone gives up a second round pick in this draft to move up in the first round. You're going to be able to get guys in the 40s that are similar prospects to guys drafted in the late teens.

If one of the top 3 tackles aren't available, but Jordan or Mingo are, I think we'll go defense.