Suns @ Bulls game thread 11-28-17

[JCSunsfan]

I have no problem with that. I don't want him interfering in drafting, free agency, and crap like that, but I have no issue with the owner doing the firings.

Agree with the rest of your post.

And you probably would not have to argue too much to win me over about who should do the firings.

 

[Mainstreet]

Um. This assumes Jackson is a "fan" which I believe is absolutely wrong. Everyone knew Bender was going to take time and has been improving. I think he will end up being an excellent player and pick.

Chriss might be a "fan" but the jury is still out (he came into camp out of shape and still has not gotten it back) and Len to this point is.

Where McD has not done well is his coaching hires.

I was jokingly making the point that in more recent history the Suns have been more successful with draft selections #9 or later, particularly #9-15 than earlier selections.

I used a huge caveat. See below.

I think that one could make a case McDonough has fanned on too many early draft picks although the final determination will not be made for years to come.

I'm hoping Bender, Chriss and Jackson all turn out to be stars but I'm not betting on it. It does not look like Len is going to get there. Mostly the draft is a crap-shoot except for a few select players at the top.

However, it's beginning to look like McDonough could be better at drafting early.

We agree McDonough has not done a good job hiring coaches.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I pretty much agree here. McD has not done very well picking coaches though. He also does not seem to communicate well with players.

I am not sure how much Sarver's interference factors in. Watson said that when he was fired, Sarver did all of the talking and McD was just in the room. I am not sure that is or should be the role of an owner. Just something to think about. If we have to have Sarver as an owner, and we do. then McD might be the best GM for the situation. You have to have a GM that can tolerate this situation and work with it. Other GM's would probably just blow things up and walk. We would just have more drama.

In McD's defense, I think he learns. He freely admits when he makes mistakes. If he is going to get an education at our expense, we might as well reap the reward when he improves. I think McD is an improving GM and my tendency would be to keep him.

By the way. I said the same thing about Steve Kerr. There was a lot of griping about Kerr's horrible trades (and he had some really bad ones). But you could see that he was on a learning curve. We took the lumps while he was learning. Then we let him walk, and let the Warriors enjoy the benefit.

Kerr rebuilt the team that had missed the playoffs the previous year and had them within 2 games of the Finals the next year. There’s simply no comparison between the two.

 

[pokerface]

Kerr rebuilt the team that had missed the playoffs the previous year and had them within 2 games of the Finals the next year. There’s simply no comparison between the two.

Kerr couldn't get any deals done. He was a rotten GM. How did he rebuild this team again?? If anything he set us back.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Kerr couldn't get any deals done. He was a rotten GM. How did he rebuild this team again?? If anything he set us back.

Drafted Dragic, Lopez, signed Frye, traded for Richardson and Dudley.

Every single one of those guys proved to be big contributors getting to the team to Game 6 Of the WCF.

He got taken to the cleaners on KT, but judging from everything we’ve seen from Kerr besides that trade with the Suns and what he’s done with GS and what we know of $arver, no one’s going to convince me that trade falls more on Kerr’s shoulders than Foamy.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Kerr rebuilt the team that had missed the playoffs the previous year and had them within 2 games of the Finals the next year. There’s simply no comparison between the two.

Kerr was a downright horrible GM as far as trades. Just horrible. His drafts were not a lot better. This article sums it up at the time.

https://valleyofthesuns.com/2010/06/16/a-look-back-at-steve-kerrs-tenure-as-suns-gm/

All that said, its sort of what you should expect with a rookie GM. Kerr is smart. He was going to get better.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Kerr was a downright horrible GM as far as trades. Just horrible. His drafts were not a lot better. This article sums it up at the time.

https://valleyofthesuns.com/2010/06/16/a-look-back-at-steve-kerrs-tenure-as-suns-gm/

All that said, its sort of what you should expect with a rookie GM. Kerr is smart. He was going to get better.

Disagree. Marion for Shaq was iffy... that team wasn't going anywhere with Marion (if y'all remember that season we were 34-14 and literally were losing to EVERY good team we faced) and if not for a miracle 3 by Duncan, prob has a shot to beat SA in the playoffs. Besides, they finished 55-27 once the team gelled and were hurt by Hill getting injured and out for that series in Game 1.

The Jrich/Dudley deal was a home-run and Shaq to free up cap space that enabled them to put pieces around Nash/Amare so they could get back to the WCF wasn't horrible. It was needed to restock the team.

And in three years of drafting, mostly from the bottom of the pack, he got Dragic and Lopez.

The Porter hiring was awful, but a bad GM would have ridden it out and been stubborn as opposed to Kerr actually acknowledging his mistake and kicking his ass to the curb.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Disagree. Marion for Shaq was iffy... that team wasn't going anywhere with Marion (if y'all remember that season we were 34-14 and literally were losing to EVERY good team we faced) and if not for a miracle 3 by Duncan, prob has a shot to beat SA in the playoffs. Besides, they finished 55-27 once the team gelled and were hurt by Hill getting injured and out for that series in Game 1.

The Jrich/Dudley deal was a home-run and Shaq to free up cap space that enabled them to put pieces around Nash/Amare so they could get back to the WCF wasn't horrible. It was needed to restock the team.

And in three years of drafting, mostly from the bottom of the pack, he got Dragic and Lopez.

The Porter hiring was awful, but a bad GM would have ridden it out and been stubborn as opposed to Kerr actually acknowledging his mistake and kicking his ass to the curb.

Kurt Thomas? One of the worst trades in the history of the league.
Shaq salary dump. Ended up being Marion for nothing.

His signing of Grant Hill was good.

 

[Hoop Head]

The Kurt Thomas trade was one of the worst in league history, not just Suns history, and the Shaq salary dump was bad also. Those 2 deals negate any good he did. I liked the Shaq trade when it was made, for Marion, but not sticking with it and dumping him for cap space was a bad move. Didn't Kerr trade Barbosa for Turkoglu also?

 

[Cheesebeef]

The Kurt Thomas trade was one of the worst in league history, not just Suns history, and the Shaq salary dump was bad also. Those 2 deals negate any good he did.

Again... look at history and tell me who probably was more responsible for that move.. Kerr? The guy who brought the Suns within 2 games of the Finals after missing the playoffs the previous year and now being the coach of a team who made three consecutive Finals while winning 2 of them... or the guy who's owned the team for years while turning one of the best franchises in the league into a perennial joke?

I liked the Shaq trade when it was made, for Marion, but not sticking with it and dumping him for cap space was a bad move.

Again, that cap space enabled them to rebuild the entire team around Nash and Amare and got them within 2 game of the Finals. How is that a bad thing?

Didn't Kerr trade Barbosa for Turkoglu also?

No. The Hakeem Warrick/Turkoglu disaster was ALL Sarver, ALL the way. Kerr was gone by then.

 

[Hoop Head]

Kerr has accepted responsibility for the KT trade. Sarver may have told him to clear money from the books but it was Kerr who attached 2 first rounders to a quality rotation player to dump that money. That's on Kerr.

They managed to trade Shaq to rebuild for a season after he left. He was here briefly and then gone and the team was in no better position than they would have been than if they kept Marion. Close to the finals is still falling short anyway you look at it. Talk up what Kerr is doing now, his role is completely different and he walked into his job with a competitive team already assembled. Mike Brown and Luke Walton both had plenty of success with the same team so Kerr shouldn't be the one getting that much praise for how Golden State is doing.

 

[Mainstreet]

No. The Hakeem Warrick/Turkoglu disaster was ALL Sarver, ALL the way. Kerr was gone by then.

Let's not forget Josh Childress in that disaster as well.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Kerr has accepted responsibility for the KT trade. Sarver may have told him to clear money from the books but it was Kerr who attached 2 first rounders to a quality rotation player to dump that money. That's on Kerr.

They managed to trade Shaq to rebuild for a season after he left. He was here briefly and then gone and the team was in no better position than they would have been than if they kept Marion. Close to the finals is still falling short anyway you look at it. Talk up what Kerr is doing now, his role is completely different and he walked into his job with a competitive team already assembled. Mike Brown and Luke Walton both had plenty of success with the same team so Kerr shouldn't be the one getting that much praise for how Golden State is doing.

I liked Kerr, and wanted to blame this (the KT trade) on Sarver. But Kerr did come out later, after he was at GS, and said that trade was on him.

Its ok. Its water under the bridge. There were things to like about Kerr too. I don't need to battle you on this one, Cheese.

 

[Raze]

I think that one could make a case McDonough has fanned on too many early draft picks although the final determination will not be made for years to come.

Here are some draft results:

Len was drafted #5.
Dragan Bender was drafted #4
Marquese Chriss was drafted for the Suns at #8
And Josh Jackson was drafted #4

This can be contrasted with some other early draft picks who were very successful in more recent NBA history.

Amare was drafted #9
Shawn Marion was drafted #9
And Joe Johnson was drafted #10 by Boston

Of course the Suns hit on notable later picks.

Booker was drafted at #13
Nash was drafted at #15

One could make the case the Suns would be better off drafting #9 or later.

As PFKK eluded to, an aspect that often goes missing when discussing draft prowess by a GM is "Who else should they have drafted?" Said differently, "Who'd they miss out on?" It's also very helpful looking at redrafts to gain perspective. (In parenthesis I put a rough estimate on Gain vs Loss on redraft)

2013 Draft:
There are 2 legit stars after Len (Greak Freak and Gobert). Lots of solid players. Len probably gets redrafted in the high teens (18?) after his spike in rebound stats this year. (-14)

2014 Draft:
Hood and Jokic were taken after Warren. Outside of that, no one better. Warren gets redrafted at 10. (+3)

2015 Draft:
Booker is a lock top 3 pick. No one is better than him after #13. (+10)

2016 Draft:
Really tough to do a redraft a year removed.
Bender would still go top 10.
Chriss's arrow pointing down, but he's still extremely young. He's probably still redrafted top 10.
(+0 on both)

2017 Draft:
Josh might not be lighting it up but he looks the part of an athletic raw talent. Would still be a top 3 pick, although Lauri, Kuzma, and Smith are making pushes (Ball and Fultz are out)
(+0)

In all, McD gets a roughly estimated -1 on his picks. (This number should be used to compare against other GM's +/-)
He missed out on Greak Freak and Gobert, but that's it. Not bad for 5 drafts.
He got one star in Booker.
He has ZERO busts.

 

[Raindog]

In all, McD gets a roughly estimated -1 on his picks. (This number should be used to compare against other GM's +/-)
He missed out on Greak Freak and Gobert, but that's it. Not bad for 5 drafts.
He got one star in Booker.
He has ZERO busts.

Generally, I agree with your assessment, and think McD has done pretty well overall. And lots of people missed out on Giannis (and Gobert) in that draft, so not really holding that against him.

That being said, I think Len qualifies as a bust by this point, due to his high draft position and even with the lousy overall quality of that class notwithstanding. And Tyler Ennis was most certainly a bust.

 

[Raindog]

Talk up what Kerr is doing now, his role is completely different and he walked into his job with a competitive team already assembled. Mike Brown and Luke Walton both had plenty of success with the same team so Kerr shouldn't be the one getting that much praise for how Golden State is doing.

Kerr reminds me quite a bit of D'Antoni in that regard - he fell ass-backwards into a great situation and gets far more credit for being a "coaching wiz" than he really merits. D'Antoni has done it twice now, in fact.

Of course, Phil Jackson garnered an entire HOF career out of the same thing... so hey, nice work if you can get it.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I liked Kerr, and wanted to blame this (the KT trade) on Sarver. But Kerr did come out later, after he was at GS, and said that trade was on him.

Its ok. Its water under the bridge. There were things to like about Kerr too. I don't need to battle you on this one, Cheese.

Fair enough.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Let's not forget Josh Childress in that disaster as well.

Ugh. Forgot about that disaster.

 

[Mainstreet]

As PFKK eluded to, an aspect that often goes missing when discussing draft prowess by a GM is "Who else should they have drafted?" Said differently, "Who'd they miss out on?" It's also very helpful looking at redrafts to gain perspective. (In parenthesis I put a rough estimate on Gain vs Loss on redraft)

2013 Draft:
There are 2 legit stars after Len (Greak Freak and Gobert). Lots of solid players. Len probably gets redrafted in the high teens (18?) after his spike in rebound stats this year. (-14)

2014 Draft:
Hood and Jokic were taken after Warren. Outside of that, no one better. Warren gets redrafted at 10. (+3)

2015 Draft:
Booker is a lock top 3 pick. No one is better than him after #13. (+10)

2016 Draft:
Really tough to do a redraft a year removed.
Bender would still go top 10.
Chriss's arrow pointing down, but he's still extremely young. He's probably still redrafted top 10.
(+0 on both)

2017 Draft:
Josh might not be lighting it up but he looks the part of an athletic raw talent. Would still be a top 3 pick, although Lauri, Kuzma, and Smith are making pushes (Ball and Fultz are out)
(+0)

In all, McD gets a roughly estimated -1 on his picks. (This number should be used to compare against other GM's +/-)
He missed out on Greak Freak and Gobert, but that's it. Not bad for 5 drafts.
He got one star in Booker.
He has ZERO busts.

You make some interesting points. Getting the draft picks right is easier said than done.

I was trying to give a snapshot of McDonough's early draft selections as contrasted with some of the Suns best draft picks in recent history who were drafted later, particularly those drafted #9-15.

However, it's really too early to grade the Suns draft selections under McDonough #4-8 hence the smilie at the end. I do think it is fair to say, Len is not looking like star material.

Another point I wanted to make is drafting #9-15 is not the end of the world.

I've generally been pleased with McDonough as the Suns GM outside the Knight trade.

 

[Mainstreet]

Ugh. Forgot about that disaster.

That was a trifecta by Sarver of Turkoglu, Warrick and Childress.

 

[Raze]

Generally, I agree with your assessment, and think McD has done pretty well overall. And lots of people missed out on Giannis (and Gobert) in that draft, so not really holding that against him.

That being said, I think Len qualifies as a bust by this point, due to his high draft position and even with the lousy overall quality of that class notwithstanding. And Tyler Ennis was most certainly a bust.

Ewwww... I always forget we threw away a pick with Ennis as our 4th PG that year. Could've had Hood or Harris. (I wanted Hood at #14)

Thanks for the correction.

Disagree about Len being a bust. The definition of "bust" differentiates from person to person.

I believe a bust is a guy who gives you a markedly below value from his draft position.

Anthony Bennett is a bust.
A 24 year old 7 footer who is close to averaging a double double isn't a bust (IMO). However, he certainly hasn't lived up to his draft position.
Ennis is a bust. We got no value from him. We essentially sent him away in the Knight trade. Which is to say we threw away pick #18 in 2014.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Generally, I agree with your assessment, and think McD has done pretty well overall. And lots of people missed out on Giannis (and Gobert) in that draft, so not really holding that against him.

That being said, I think Len qualifies as a bust by this point, due to his high draft position and even with the lousy overall quality of that class notwithstanding. And Tyler Ennis was most certainly a bust.

If you sign your number 4 draft pick to a qualifying offer, well, he's a bust--at least to you if no one else.

 

[Phrazbit]

If you sign your number 4 draft pick to a qualifying offer, well, he's a bust--at least to you if no one else.

If he couldn't get an offer from anyone else either... he's a bust.

 

[Errntknght]

If he couldn't get an offer from anyone else either... he's a bust.

Len is having his best season... significantly more rebounds and FTA. 9.3 reb in 23 mpg, 3.4 OR. Almost doubling his FTA/gm to 4.5 and hitting them at .765 clip. If he can hold at near this level he'll hang around as a backup C. His offensive efficiency (in my rating) is well above the average for all centers - 270 vs 220 so he doesn't hurt his team on offense and you don't have to fear a "hack-a-Len" in the 4th Q. Prior to this year his offensive efficiency was under 200, which does hurt - the bump in OR and FTA and diminished TO are the primary reasons for better OffEff. Not great for a #5 pick even if was a poor year but not a bust yet.

 

[Phrazbit]

Len is having his best season... significantly more rebounds and FTA. 9.3 reb in 23 mpg, 3.4 OR. Almost doubling his FTA/gm to 4.5 and hitting them at .765 clip. If he can hold at near this level he'll hang around as a backup C. His offensive efficiency (in my rating) is well above the average for all centers - 270 vs 220 so he doesn't hurt his team on offense and you don't have to fear a "hack-a-Len" in the 4th Q. Prior to this year his offensive efficiency was under 200, which does hurt - the bump in OR and FTA and diminished TO are the primary reasons for better OffEff. Not great for a #5 pick even if was a poor year but not a bust yet.

At the close of his four year rookie deal he couldn't get a multi year offer from anyone... I'd say it makes him a bust. Sometimes a bust can recover their career, but they were still a draft bust if that is how things played out for the team that took them.

And while his effort is certainly better, leading to less games where he is invisible, he is still an atrocious team defender who constantly is in the wrong position and, according to this Zach Lowe article, the worst player in the entire league on post up opportunities.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...-things-like-including-houston-chris-paul-nba

Labissiere is shooting 32 percent on post-ups, 54th among 58 players who have finished at least 20 such plays, per Synergy Sports. (The four guys below him: Wade, Marcus Smart, Russell Westbrook, and Alex Len.)

Despite the big statistical nights he has had I still would not consider offering Len a multi-year deal. IMO he is still essentially a net negative for the team and that he only finally started to show some hustle when he career was on a fast track for the euroleague makes me really weary that he'd return to his old "invisible man" habits if he had a long term deal.