Suns Capology

[wilecoyotesupergenius]

I'm pretty familiar with the cba (http://www.nbpa.com/), but the issue of front loading contracts is still a little fuzzy (either that or many of the media "gurus" simply don't know what they are talking about. Feel free to correct me if my assumptions are incorrect:

1. There is a "Maximum Contract" that free agents can sign (25% of the salary cap), but the maximum holds true only for the first year (with 8% or 10.5% raises depending on whether the team is signing it's own exempted player). Teams may also decrease contracts a maximum of 8% or 10.5% per year.

2. For calculation purposes, assume the salary cap will be around $48 mil and the luxury tax around $58 mil. That means Atlanta can offer JJ a max first year contract at $12 mil ($48 mil x 25%).

3. The only way to front load a contract is to offer a signing bonus. Signing bonuses can be a maximun of 25% of the contract value. Since it is rumored that Atlanta offerred $70 mil, the bonus would be $17.5. The bonus can be paid up front or divided through the contract...but for salary cap and luxury tax purposes, the signing bonus is distributed equally over the full contract term. $17.5 mil divided by 5 years = $3.5mil cap hit per year.

4. $70 mil contract minus $17.5 bonus = $52.5 mil over 5 years in terms of actual salary. Atlanta's offer is rumored to be front loaded to the tune of $20mil the first year. If they split the actual bonus money between the first two years...$8.75 mil x 2 = $17.5, then the Suns would have more than $20mil owed to JJ for the first two years...though the cap hit would be:

2005 $12mil max salary + $3.5 bonus cap hit = $15.5 cap hit ($20.75 actual)
2006 $11.25 + $3.5 = $14.75 cap hit................................($20mil actual)
2007 $10.5 + $3.5 = $14 cap hit
2008 $9.75 + $3.5 = $13.25 cap hit
2009 $9 + $3.5 = $12.5 cap hit
Total = $70 mil

2005-2006 Lineup
Nash $9,625,000
JJ $15,500,000
Bell $4,500,000 ???
Amare $2,589,022
KT $6,620,062
Jackson $2,700,000
Marion $13,770,000
Barbosa $930,600
Eisley = Amnesty waiver
Total = Approx $56mil with 4 open roster spots for minimum contract players. We are pretty darn close to the luxury tax...WITHOUT using the $1.7 mil exception or the 1.8 trade exception. Depending on how the final cap numbers shake out, we've got around $2 mil for 4 roster spots. Tractor Traylor anyone? Time to make a run this year........

2006-2007 Lineup
Nash $10.5 mil
JJ $14.75
Bell $4.75 ???
Amare $14 max
KT $7.355
Marion $15
Barbosa - Release for cheaper player
Total for 6 players = $66.36 mil...depending on the team success on the court....changes could be made.

 

[playstation]

i made a post very similar to this on the cap space thread. you make an interesting and true point about salary can decrease over the life of the contract, in which case JJ's cap hit this year would be higher than i estimated. you also did not include dijon and lucas' contacts in your estimations, but they don't add much. i basically came to the same conclusion as you though: go for broke this year, because after that it'll be all on Amare.

 

[KANIDJA]

If they sign JJ, and I think they are going to, we will be OK for 2005-2006. In 2006-07 they will have to trade one of our core players which will probably be Marion. Its a long shot but they are going to have to trade somebody. If you look around the league most teams have two great players and then the role players. Marion is a great player but I would rather have JJ than him. I think he does more things and has more potential. Plus, Marion can be easier replaced.

 

[3rdside]

4. $70 mil contract minus $17.5 bonus = $52.5 mil over 5 years in terms of actual salary. Atlanta's offer is rumored to be front loaded to the tune of $20mil the first year. If they split the actual bonus money between the first two years...$8.75 mil x 2 = $17.5, then the Suns would have more than $20mil owed to JJ for the first two years...though the cap hit would be:

I don't know anything about the cap really (apart from reading what's above) but if Atlanta offers a signing bonus does that mean we have to pay JJ a signing bonus as well if we match? Or do we pay him a contract with the same amount of dollars involved? Or do we not even have the chance to offer the same amount money?

 

[asudevil83]

bell actually starts at $4.25mil this year.

 

[George O'Brien]

We don't know exactly where the Luxury tax starts, but rumors are that it will closer to $61 million than $58. This makes using the LLE awfully expensive if it means the costs are doubled through luxury tax payments.

In another thread, I suggested the Suns might offer JJ a six year $80 million deal, as much to control the timing of the payments as to slightly reduce the per year. Controlling costs this season does not solve the team's long term financial problems, but it is a start.

 

[coloradosun]

George

I don't think that the Hawks will make the offer to JJ, everyone in the league knows why the Suns traded Voskuhl. The contract now will only benefit JJ and his agent, Atlanta will have nothing to gain by doing so. The gig is up and Atlanta should go out and try the same antics with the Bulls. As much as these teams in the league want to improve themselves they don't try to sabatoge other teams. They are competitive not combative, if Atlanta does make the offer, I think it becomes combative. That is not good for the league and for the Hawks to continue their pursuit is only detrimental to another team. The Suns did do it to the Clippers last year but it was the Clippers and they have a track record and an owner who is not out to win a championship. The Clippers also had a lot of cap room summer in the attempt to make a run at Kobe, so they had no clear game plan. The Clippers made the deal for Kerry Kittles before declining to match Q so they were not that concerned about retaining him. The Suns have made their intentions clear, they will match. In the best interest of the league and the Hawks relationship with the Suns they should just move on.

 

[Joe Mama]

George

I don't think that the Hawks will make the offer to JJ, everyone in the league knows why the Suns traded Voskuhl. The contract now will only benefit JJ and his agent, Atlanta will have nothing to gain by doing so. The gig is up and Atlanta should go out and try the same antics with the Bulls. As much as these teams in the league want to improve themselves they don't try to sabatoge other teams. They are competitive not combative, if Atlanta does make the offer, I think it becomes combative. That is not good for the league and for the Hawks to continue their pursuit is only detrimental to another team. The Suns did do it to the Clippers last year but it was the Clippers and they have a track record and an owner who is not out to win a championship. The Clippers also had a lot of cap room summer in the attempt to make a run at Kobe, so they had no clear game plan. The Clippers made the deal for Kerry Kittles before declining to match Q so they were not that concerned about retaining him. The Suns have made their intentions clear, they will match. In the best interest of the league and the Hawks relationship with the Suns they should just move on.

I'm sorry, but the Jake Voskuhl trade has little to no bearing on JJ's situation. It's a move the Phoenix Suns were trying to make anyways. I guarantee that it's the long-term effects of JJ's contract that have Sarver scared. It wasn't the thought that they might have to pay $1-2 million in luxury tax for next season's roster.

The only reason I feel better today than I did yesterday about the Phoenix Suns re-signing JJ is that both of the articles regarding the Jake Voskuhl trade mentioned that Sarver still intends to match Atlanta's offer.

Joe Mama

 

[Treesquid PhD]

Good post,

a positive would be even at 66.3 million the Suns may

1. be under the cliff threshold in 2006-2007
2. the tax may not trigger (when will we know for sure if the tax will trigger for the upcomming season? I just had a thought that could impact the Suns signing Finley as well
3. Revenues could increase to the point where the Suns are not at the tax threashold.

Kind of wishful thinking it does look like the Suns will be shopping marion by summer 06.

Also Sarver should be getting his 1/30 of the 10% salary return from the players this season correct? If so he should start stashing that away.

 

[JCSunsfan]

George

I don't think that the Hawks will make the offer to JJ, everyone in the league knows why the Suns traded Voskuhl. The contract now will only benefit JJ and his agent, Atlanta will have nothing to gain by doing so. The gig is up and Atlanta should go out and try the same antics with the Bulls. As much as these teams in the league want to improve themselves they don't try to sabatoge other teams. They are competitive not combative, if Atlanta does make the offer, I think it becomes combative. That is not good for the league and for the Hawks to continue their pursuit is only detrimental to another team. The Suns did do it to the Clippers last year but it was the Clippers and they have a track record and an owner who is not out to win a championship. The Clippers also had a lot of cap room summer in the attempt to make a run at Kobe, so they had no clear game plan. The Clippers made the deal for Kerry Kittles before declining to match Q so they were not that concerned about retaining him. The Suns have made their intentions clear, they will match. In the best interest of the league and the Hawks relationship with the Suns they should just move on.

I would like to believe this but it is pretty clear that Atlanta and JJ already have an agreement in place. To back out now would lose Atlanta credibility with free agents. They cannot leave JJ high and dry. If there is no contract to match, JJ's negotiating power is substantially hurt.

Besides, Atlanta has nothing to lose by making the offer. They still have enough $ to sign another max free agent.

Atlanta's backup plan could be Finley. They could trade with Dallas for Finley AND picks (or a decent young player). Dallas would be more motivated to do that than to use the amnesty clause because Cuban would not only save the lux tax hit from Finley, he would also save Fins actual salary (totalling more than $100 million over the next 3 years) and it would put Finley in the EC.

Maybe the Hawks could pick up Damon Stoudamire then, for cheap.

 

[Mainstreet]

I certainly do not have a good grasp of the CBA, however, wouldn't Phoenix be better off overall offering JJ a 6 year contract for more money (I'll throw out 75 million as a hypothetical number) than Atlanta's proposed offer.

The advantage to Phoenix is that the Suns could structure the contract to their advantage. The advantage to JJ is he gets the security of a 6 year contract. Of course their are disadvantages both ways, however, I think if JJ is going to play in a Suns uniform, it would be advantageous to get a contract structured that the Suns can better live with.

Maybe the Suns are waiting for Atlanta to back out of their offer to JJ but I don't think this is going to happen and besides the high price for wing players has already been set. I can't see the Suns now trying to low-ball JJ.

I just do not see a good reason for the Suns and JJ not talking if the Suns are going to at least match Atlanta's offer to JJ.

The only explanation I can think of for JJ and the Suns not talking is because he does not want to play here, he wants alot of money upfront ( nice to have but I doubt it) or he gave Atlanta his word he word sign their offer sheet. I think Atlanta would release him from this last option if Phoenix is going to at least match their offer.

I think a phone call by Suns management to Atlanta and JJ's agent could resolve this issue. I guess I'm wondering how this situation is much different from Dalambert with Philly other than Atlanta is committed to making a offer to JJ and JJ likewise has returned the committment. However, wouldn't this all become a non-issue if all parties knew JJ's contract would at least be matched.

In a way, maybe I have answered by own question. Perhaps JJ and his agent are holding out for a 6 year contract with Phoenix. Maybe the amount of money in the 6 year contract is still under negotiation. However, once JJ signs Atlanta's offer sheet isn't the 6 year deal out the window?

So maybe something happens (at least a verbal agreement) with JJ and the Suns before the FA signing date.

 

[playstation]

Atlanta's backup plan could be Finley. They could trade with Dallas for Finley AND picks (or a decent young player). Dallas would be more motivated to do that than to use the amnesty clause because Cuban would not only save the lux tax hit from Finley, he would also save Fins actual salary (totalling more than $100 million over the next 3 years) and it would put Finley in the EC.

There is just no way. Finley is 32, not awesome anymore, and is earning at least $15M/year for the NEXT 3 YEARS. You don't trade for that type of declining asset, no matter what picks Dallas offers (unless Dirk is included in the trade lol).

 

[JCSunsfan]

In a way, maybe I have answered by own question. Perhaps JJ and his agent are holding out for a 6 year contract with Phoenix. Maybe the amount of money in the 6 year contract is still under negotiation. However, once JJ signs Atlanta's offer sheet isn't the 6 year deal out the window?

So maybe something happens (at least a verbal agreement) with JJ and the Suns before the FA signing date.

Atlanta has to tender the offer. They will.

JJ has to sign the offer sheet. He might, if he really wants to play in Atlanta. He could come back to the Suns and ask for a 6 year deal for more money and better terms for the Suns. If he does that he has to do it BEFORE he signs the offer sheet.

Suns wait 7 days to match. They will wait, and they will match.

At this point, Atlanta has nothing to lose by making the offer.

JJ has something to lose by signing the offer sheet. He might sacrifice more money for a sixth year, and he has the potential of hurting the team that he will eventually play for.

The Suns would love to negotiate a more friendly deal (6 years 75-78 million or so), but its not in their hands.

I really comes down to how vindictive JJ will be over the negotiations last fall, and with the team that will likely be his team for the next 5 years. Would he hurt himself in order to hurt his team?

 

[George O'Brien]

One interesting aspect of the delay is that it appears JJ's agent has all but hidden JJ to keep the Suns from getting to him. The longer this goes on, the harder it is for his agent to keep him isolated.

What difference does it make? The Suns are motivated to do a six year deal but JJ's agent wants to prove he can deliver his clients to the Hawks. Conflict of interest?

 

[coloradosun]

Atlanta has to tender the offer. They will.

JJ has to sign the offer sheet. He might, if he really wants to play in Atlanta. He could come back to the Suns and ask for a 6 year deal for more money and better terms for the Suns. If he does that he has to do it BEFORE he signs the offer sheet.

Suns wait 7 days to match. They will wait, and they will match.

At this point, Atlanta has nothing to lose by making the offer.

Atlanta has a lot to lose. The Suns will definitely wait the 7 days just to spite the Hawks. In that time they could lose out on filling out their roster with guys like Zaza Pachulia and Earl Watson or Brevin Knight. It just seems foolish to me to hold out hope on a Restricted FA that is going to be matched and lose the opportunity to help out in two positions that they are in desperate need of.

I would think if they were going to bet on a team not resigning a RFA it would be Chicago who has 4, Pargo, Duhon, Curry and Chandler.

The Hawks put the Suns into a position trade Voskuhl, I don't think Phoenix is going to forget that. Those 7 days could be detrimental to Atlanta in the long run.

 

[Joe Mama]

Atlanta has a lot to lose. The Suns will definitely wait the 7 days just to spite the Hawks. In that time they could lose out on filling out their roster with guys like Zaza Pachulia and Earl Watson or Brevin Knight. It just seems foolish to me to hold out hope on a Restricted FA that is going to be matched and lose the opportunity to help out in two positions that they are in desperate need of.

I would think if they were going to bet on a team not resigning a RFA it would be Chicago who has 4, Pargo, Duhon, Curry and Chandler.

The Hawks put the Suns into a position trade Voskuhl, I don't think Phoenix is going to forget that. Those 7 days could be detrimental to Atlanta in the long run.

again, the Atlanta Hawks are so far under the salary cap that they could make the offer to JJ, sign another player to the max, and they would still have room to go after players like Earl Watson. This is just not an issue for Atlanta.

Joe Mama

 

[Mainstreet]

One interesting aspect of the delay is that it appears JJ's agent has all but hidden JJ to keep the Suns from getting to him. The longer this goes on, the harder it is for his agent to keep him isolated.

George, I just do not buy this argument that JJ is being kept isolated without JJ's consent. I think JJ is fully aware of what is going on and he is choosing this isolation (of course with the counseling of his agent). I'm not saying JJ's agent is not part of it.

However, I think if JJ and his agent play around too long, JC and BC will explore a sign in trade (before he signs Atlanta's offer sheet) which may be exactly what JJ and company want. Perhaps the Suns get a trading partner with JJ's agent in toll and sign JJ closer to the Suns max for 6 years and then sign and trade him. JC has not been known for his patience with a player that does not cooperate and is not at least committed to the team (or perceived as such).

I certainly would not blame the Suns as I think this saga has gone on long enough. If JJ does not want to play for Phoenix... enough is enough. However, I definitely match JJ's offer sheet. Please no free ticket out of town like McDyess.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

The Hawks put the Suns into a position trade Voskuhl, I don't think Phoenix is going to forget that. Those 7 days could be detrimental to Atlanta in the long run.

The Hawks didn't put the Suns in that position. Jake and his agent did.

At the end of the season he said he wanted to be moved so he could get some playing time. The suns publically stated over a month ago that they would try to find Jake a new home.

That deal was going to happen regardless of JJ.

 

[wilecoyotesupergenius]

George, I just do not buy this argument that JJ is being kept isolated without JJ's consent. I think JJ is fully aware of what is going on and he is choosing this isolation (of course with the counseling of his agent). I'm not saying JJ's agent is not part of it.

However, I think if JJ and his agent play around too long, JC and BC will explore a sign in trade (before he signs Atlanta's offer sheet) which may be exactly what JJ and company want. Perhaps the Suns get a trading partner with JJ's agent in toll and sign JJ closer to the Suns max for 6 years and then sign and trade him. JC has not been known for his patience with a player that does not cooperate and is not at least committed to the team (or perceived as such).

I certainly would not blame the Suns as I think this saga has gone on long enough. If JJ does not want to play for Phoenix... enough is enough. However, I definitely match JJ's offer sheet. Please no free ticket out of town like Mcdyess.

My emotions regarding the re-signing of JJ have gone up and down almost daily (depending on the latest "rumor" I happen to be reading). While the adage "where there's smoke there's fire" may be true...I suspect that most of the "rumors" floating out there have been embellished for the positive...or negative...simply to create the best "copy"...or story. While BC and Co. have certainly made mistakes, their track record should give Suns fans some degree of confidence (it could be worse...we could be Atlanta or Clipper fans).

That being said, I think the Suns now hold all the cards. If we sign JJ, he'll have to earn his salary and display a great attitude (which he always has). If he doesn't....he can be traded after December 15th...(despite his BYC status, there will be still be teams under the cap...or he can be traded anywhere if total salaries received in a multi player swap are $28 mil because it will still meet the 125% + 100K rule.)

JJ will be fine....if he isn't we can threaten to send him to (gasp)....Toronto!

 

[Mainstreet]

That being said, I think the Suns now hold all the cards. If we sign JJ, he'll have to earn his salary and display a great attitude (which he always has). If he doesn't....he can be traded after December 15th...(despite his BYC status, there will be still be teams under the cap...or he can be traded anywhere if total salaries received in a multi player swap are $28 mil because it will still meet the 125% + 100K rule.)

JJ will be fine....if he isn't we can threaten to send him to (gasp)....Toronto!

If the Suns sign and trade JJ because of an attitude problem, I would like it done before he signs the Atlanta offer sheet and the Suns have to keep him until December. I'm getting pretty close to doing that multi-player swap or whatever, so long as the Suns can get near equal value in return.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If the Suns sign and trade JJ because of an attitude problem, I would like it done before he signs the Atlanta offer sheet and the Suns have to keep him until December. I'm getting pretty close to doing that multi-player swap or whatever, so long as the Suns can get near equal value in return.

You can't trade a FA unless he consent to a sign and trade. In December he has no say in the matter.

 

[Mainstreet]

You can't trade a FA unless he consent to a sign and trade. In December he has no say in the matter.

I know it couldn't be done without JJ's consent, however, I thought if he did not sign an offer sheet with Atlanta, the Suns could sign and trade him immediately once FA's can sign. Perhaps I'm wrong.

I know the Suns would have to wait until December if the Suns matched Atlanta's offer sheet.

This CBA stuff is driving me crazy. I just want to enjoy basketball.