Suns looking to trade KT for Gooden or Wilcox?

[SunsTzu]

The thing about next years draft is it's just unbelievably loaded with bigmen. And I think it will produce atleast 2 mega-stars. Of course we have the benefit of being able to look back on the '03 draft and I by no means would put money on next years draft producing more talent but it is projected to be much stronger than any draft I've seen be projected before.

 

[Joe Mama]

you can throw Josh Howard on that list also. Both he, Hinrich and Boris seem to be around the same level - not MAX guys, not MLE guys, but middle-stars, who are young and have flashed serious talent for contending teams. Those are the guys that are the benchmarks for contracts, not a relative stiff like Gooden or a 30 game semi-wonder in Wilcox.

I think Josh Howard is the perfect benchmark. I knew you had mentioned somebody whose value I thought was close to Boris', but I just could not remember who it was.

Joe

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't think the Suns will be able to afford Boris if he becomes a RFA and likely the same with Barbosa.

I guess in the deep recesses of my mind I keep replaying the scenario of JJ becoming a RFA. I think the Suns got the better end of the JJ deal but the Suns were extremely fortunate that Atlanta did not call their possible bluff about matching. If the Suns had matched, they would likely be trading Shawn Marion about right now.

I would hate to lose either Diaw or Barbosa, but especially Diaw, as quality bigs are hard to find.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I don't think the Suns will be able to afford Boris if he becomes a RFA and likely the same with Barbosa.

I guess in the deep recesses of my mind I keep replaying the scenario of JJ becoming a RFA. I think the Suns got the better end of the JJ deal but the Suns were extremely fortunate that Atlanta did not call their possible bluff about matching. If the Suns had matched, they would likely be trading Shawn Marion about right now.

I would hate to lose either Diaw or Barbosa, but especially Diaw, as quality bigs are hard to find.

if Diaw progresses as we think he will, or at least plays as well as he did the playoffs, someone's gonna offer him the MAX next offseason, especially seeing what happened with JJ a couple years ago. The JJ deal was like lightning striking - it doesn't happen in the same place twice. Get the deal done - the guy, at this point, especially not knowing how Amare's going to come back IS the future of the team.

If he's asking for anything more than 5/55 (or 11 mill per) then I'd let him hit RFA, but if we're trying to low-ball him and tell him "play well this year and you'll be a very rich man", I think we're looking at a bad situation.

 

[Mainstreet]

if Diaw progresses as we think he will, or at least plays as well as he did the playoffs, someone's gonna offer him the MAX next offseason, especially seeing what happened with JJ a couple years ago. The JJ deal was like lightning striking - it doesn't happen in the same place twice. Get the deal done - the guy, at this point, especially not knowing how Amare's going to come back IS the future of the team.

If he's asking for anything more than 5/55 (or 11 mill per) then I'd let him hit RFA, but if we're trying to low-ball him and tell him "play well this year and you'll be a very rich man", I think we're looking at a bad situation.

Agreed. However, I really want Diaw locked up this summer with the asking price and demand for bigs.

Please no RFA for Diaw or Barbosa. I don't think I can take it.

 

[fordronken]

Fordronken, I understand if you project future salaries and their impact into the future, the Suns, sooner or later, get their hands tied (especially if they sign a player with a higher salary like Wilcox). I understand and accept this logic if all things remained the same for the Suns and other teams in the NBA. However, all things change and do not remain static and I think (and you probably do as well) that the Suns roster will change several times over the next few years and that perhaps a core player may have to be moved. My logic, which IMO is really not contradictory to yours, is to assemble the best team available now (within reason) and move the least essential part next season or when the needs arises.

If the Suns sign good players to reasonable contracts, the Suns should be able to move such contracts in the future if needed. In regard to Diaw and Barbosa, if their salaries are extended they would not impact the Suns this coming season. My logic, if I'm the Suns, if you have quality players under contract (Diaw and Barbosa) that can within reason be extended for hopefully less (but no more than market value)... do it now.

Then if the Suns win a Championship next season, we may not need to dump contracts (because of increased supplemental revenue) or if the Suns do need to get rid of a contract or two, it is not hard to trade quality players. Also the Suns, IMO, are not going to use all three first round draft picks. I think they will use at least one, if necessary, to move a player.

My thought process is really the old market concepts of if you buy quality you have quality and the concept of buy low and sell high combined.

So if I'm the Suns, if I could add a player which I think would give the Suns a high probability of winning a Championship this coming season I would worry about what player may have to be moved next season.

My Personal Opinion: I would add a pick with KT and try to move him now for a young 4/5 like Wilcox, Gooden, Jeffries or whoever D'Antoni likes for the Suns and this lessens the financial burden for the Suns (or advoids the luxury tax for a couple seasons) and allows for the Suns to add a young 4/5. The Suns would also gain an additional year to consider who they may want to move or keep on their roster for the future as KT is still under contract at a significant salary for two seasons.

I agree somewhat. If the Suns assemble an incredible team for next year and win the championship, I don't care what happens for the next five years. However, you don't want to get stuck trying to dump salary to a team with cap space and wind up having to give up whatever a team wants just to get rid of a guy like Shawn Marion.

 

[George O'Brien]

I remain convinced the JJ situation was an anomoly. There is no logical reason for any team to blow such a huge amount on a guy who is not a franchise player - except that the Hawks had a huge problem. No free agents would sign with them, even for enormous amounts of money.

Agents would routinely go to the Hawks to get bids and then shop the bids to teams the players would actually like to play for. This means they felt the need to make an absurd offer in hopes of scaring the Suns off, but then were faced with a total disaster is the Suns matched. If they went empty in free agency again, it would have been tough to give away Hawks tickets.

As it was, the Hawks were lucky to find a player whose ego was such that being the big guy on an awful team was better than being a contributor to a very good team. Even with all that, the Hawks had to go for a max contract just to keep JJ in the fold rather than just doing a less expensive sign and trade.

Management can't really prepare for such an absurd situation, but neither can players. For a few players it is a great gamble. For most, the strategy doesn't really work.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

I remain convinced the JJ situation was an anomoly. There is no logical reason for any team to blow such a huge amount on a guy who is not a franchise player - except that the Hawks had a huge problem.

I don't know if you have been paying attention to JJ this past season, but he is definitely on his way to being a franchise player. The contract JJ got was NOT unreasonable. It was just unreasonable for the Suns.

 

[Folster]

I remain convinced the JJ situation was an anomoly. There is no logical reason for any team to blow such a huge amount on a guy who is not a franchise player - except that the Hawks had a huge problem. No free agents would sign with them, even for enormous amounts of money.

Agents would routinely go to the Hawks to get bids and then shop the bids to teams the players would actually like to play for. This means they felt the need to make an absurd offer in hopes of scaring the Suns off, but then were faced with a total disaster is the Suns matched. If they went empty in free agency again, it would have been tough to give away Hawks tickets.

As it was, the Hawks were lucky to find a player whose ego was such that being the big guy on an awful team was better than being a contributor to a very good team. Even with all that, the Hawks had to go for a max contract just to keep JJ in the fold rather than just doing a less expensive sign and trade.

Management can't really prepare for such an absurd situation, but neither can players. For a few players it is a great gamble. For most, the strategy doesn't really work.

Larry Hughes and Michael Redd?

 

[SunsTzu]

Larry Hughes and Michael Redd?

Yeah, it was pretty obvious that once those 2 got the contracts they did JJ was going to get a max offer.

 

[JCSunsfan]

JJ is turning out to be a great player for them--just not a pg.

Their big mistake was giving up Diaw and picks.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Interesting development:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=rotowire-hrisilcoxearingahree&prov=rotowire&type=lgns

Chris Wilcox: Nearing a Three-Year Deal For Sign-and-Trade Purposes

RotoWire.com Staff - RotoWire.com
Monday, July 31, 2006
Update: The Sonics, who have three teams interested in a sign-and-trade for Wilcox, are nearing an agreement with Wilcox on a three-year, $24 million contract, according to a team source, the Seattle Times reports.

Recommendation: "Nothing has been finalized," agent Jeff Fried said. "We want to conclude [contract talks] as soon as possible so Chris can get with a team and begin preparing for the season." An NBA source has indicated Phoenix, Golden State and Sacramento as teams that have contacted the Sonics to talk trade scenarios.

Looks like KT is in fact a likely candidate to be moved....

 

[nowagimp]

I don't know if you have been paying attention to JJ this past season, but he is definitely on his way to being a franchise player. The contract JJ got was NOT unreasonable. It was just unreasonable for the Suns.

JJ is not yet a franchise player, but is being paid to be one last year and this year coming. What JJ did last year on a bad team is not easily evaluated, 20ppg on 45% shooting with 6.5 asst, BUT 3.26 turnovers a game is a work in progress. JJ will probably be an all star in the next couple of years, if Claxton sets him up enough. I expect JJ to be an all star not this year, but the next. Problem is,a franchise player is really beyond an all star. Can JJ be the best player on a top 8 team?? Big question on that one. Does he drive the lane with regularity after his face injury? If not, he will not be a franchise player anytime soon. If JJ is not aggressive there, other teams will not respect the balance in his game.

My opinion is that JJ's contract was not a good contract for any team that expects to contend in the near future. But then, that doesnt sound like the Hawks ....

 

[Hugh D'Man]

JJ is turning out to be a great player for them--just not a pg.

Their big mistake was giving up Diaw and picks.

and their bigger mistake was not drafting CPaul.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

JJ is not yet a franchise player, but is being paid to be one last year and this year coming. What JJ did last year on a bad team is not easily evaluated, 20ppg on 45% shooting with 6.5 asst, BUT 3.26 turnovers a game is a work in progress. JJ will probably be an all star in the next couple of years, if Claxton sets him up enough. I expect JJ to be an all star not this year, but the next. Problem is,a franchise player is really beyond an all star. Can JJ be the best player on a top 8 team?? Big question on that one. Does he drive the lane with regularity after his face injury? If not, he will not be a franchise player anytime soon. If JJ is not aggressive there, other teams will not respect the balance in his game.

My opinion is that JJ's contract was not a good contract for any team that expects to contend in the near future. But then, that doesnt sound like the Hawks ....

JJ may not be a franchise player (IMO there are like 10 of them in the league) but he is/has developed into what i thought he would. The perfect second banana to Amare. And I mean perfect. We could have won multiple championships had they stayed together (and if Amare had stayed healthy which he did'nt) Anyone who disputes this fact should read the AP article about Joe during the olympic trials. They said he was one of the three best players.

Fortunately we got Diaw. I also feel he could eventually develop into that player although i feel Joe is a lot closer. Time will tell....

 

[Arizona's Finest]

and their bigger mistake was not drafting CPaul.

Very true. They will rue that decision for years to come. and the Suns will be the biggest benefactors (other than the Hornets) for such stupidity....

 

[George O'Brien]

Clearly JJ benefited from being the main focus on the Hawks offense, with 220 more attempts than with the Suns that got him an extra 3 ppg. However, his three point shooting dropped quite a bit.

2004-05 177 of 370 47.8%
2005-06 128-360 35.6%

For a value comparison, I think Mike James is suggestive

Joe Johnson
Atlanta Hawks
Position: G
Height: 6-7 Weight: 230
College : Arkansas
Player file | Team stats

2005-06 Statistics
PPG 20.2
RPG 4.1
APG 6.5
SPG 1.26
BPG .38
FG% .453
FT% .791
3P% .356
MPG 40.7

Mike James
Toronto Raptors
Position: G
Height: 6-2 Weight: 190
College : Duquesne
Player file | Team stats

2005-06 Statistics
PPG 20.3
RPG 3.3
APG 5.8
SPG .91
BPG .04
FG% .469
FT% .837
3P% .442
MPG 37.0

James has a deal starting at $5.2 million. Joe Johnson gets $12.7.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Clearly JJ benefited from being the main focus on the Hawks offense, with 220 more attempts than with the Suns that got him an extra 3 ppg. However, his three point shooting dropped quite a bit.

2004-05 177 of 370 47.8%
2005-06 128-360 35.6%

For a value comparison, I think Mike James is suggestive

Joe Johnson
Atlanta Hawks
Position: G
Height: 6-7 Weight: 230
College : Arkansas
Player file | Team stats

2005-06 Statistics
PPG 20.2
RPG 4.1
APG 6.5
SPG 1.26
BPG .38
FG% .453
FT% .791
3P% .356
MPG 40.7

Mike James
Toronto Raptors
Position: G
Height: 6-2 Weight: 190
College : Duquesne
Player file | Team stats

2005-06 Statistics
PPG 20.3
RPG 3.3
APG 5.8
SPG .91
BPG .04
FG% .469
FT% .837
3P% .442
MPG 37.0

James has a deal starting at $5.2 million. Joe Johnson gets $12.7.

this is a joke, right? JJ may not be worth a MAX deal, but he is LIGHT YEARS better than James who is in his early thirties.

I think JJ being on team USA and Mike James struggling to stay with any team he's on, or the fact that the Hawks, with just JJ added to their group had a 13 game improvement over the previous season, yet the Raptors added Mike James AND Charlie V and won 6 games LESS than they did in 2005. I'd say both of those two things is more suggestive of their selective worth than a bunch of numbers put up without anything else behind it.

 

[Chaplin]

Clearly JJ benefited from being the main focus on the Hawks offense, with 220 more attempts than with the Suns that got him an extra 3 ppg. However, his three point shooting dropped quite a bit.

2004-05 177 of 370 47.8%
2005-06 128-360 35.6%

For a value comparison, I think Mike James is suggestive

Joe Johnson
Atlanta Hawks
Position: G
Height: 6-7 Weight: 230
College : Arkansas
Player file | Team stats

2005-06 Statistics
PPG 20.2
RPG 4.1
APG 6.5
SPG 1.26
BPG .38
FG% .453
FT% .791
3P% .356
MPG 40.7

Mike James
Toronto Raptors
Position: G
Height: 6-2 Weight: 190
College : Duquesne
Player file | Team stats

2005-06 Statistics
PPG 20.3
RPG 3.3
APG 5.8
SPG .91
BPG .04
FG% .469
FT% .837
3P% .442
MPG 37.0

James has a deal starting at $5.2 million. Joe Johnson gets $12.7.

George... I mean, Hollinger... I mean, George...

You've got to be joking. Mike James vs. Joe Johnson?? I have been one of the more vocal supporters of the original offers to Joe Johnson 2 years ago, but comparing those two is like comparing apples to oranges. Joe Johnson is now one of the best players in the league, no matter what team he plays on. Sure, it's possible playing for Atlanta gives him somewhat inflated statistics, but not that much more than normal.

While I might not think that JJ is worth the max to the Suns, he's a LOT more valuable than Mike freakin' James! To ANY team!

 

[Evil Ash]

Interesting development:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=rotowire-hrisilcoxearingahree&prov=rotowire&type=lgns

Chris Wilcox: Nearing a Three-Year Deal For Sign-and-Trade Purposes

RotoWire.com Staff - RotoWire.com
Monday, July 31, 2006
Update: The Sonics, who have three teams interested in a sign-and-trade for Wilcox, are nearing an agreement with Wilcox on a three-year, $24 million contract, according to a team source, the Seattle Times reports.

Recommendation: "Nothing has been finalized," agent Jeff Fried said. "We want to conclude [contract talks] as soon as possible so Chris can get with a team and begin preparing for the season." An NBA source has indicated Phoenix, Golden State and Sacramento as teams that have contacted the Sonics to talk trade scenarios.

Looks like KT is in fact a likely candidate to be moved....

That is interesting and in doing the math with 10% increases year to year KTs contract would work in trade (it works out to just to 3 years and just under $24.5 million)

 

[Cheesebeef]

That is interesting and in doing the math with 10% increases year to year KTs contract would work in trade (it works out to just to 3 years and just under $24.5 million)

why would Seattle want KT though? That's what makes me question the trade. I could see if we threw in our first rounder next year, otherwise, the trade doesn't make much sense to me.

That being said, getting Wilcox for 8 million per for the next three years is enticing. I think the guy could flourish in DA's style. The question though would be what happens with Diaw/Marion - it would seem like one of those three guys wouldn't be on the roster come next off-season with us being wayyy over the luxury tax. If it came down to Diaw or Wilcox, I'd take Diaw at 2 or 3 million more per any day of the week.

 

[sly fly]

I still can't believe JJ left PHX.

Diaw or no Diaw.

 

[George O'Brien]

Yes, JJ is better than James, but the notion his PERFORMANCE makes him a super max guy -- I don't think so. JJ has good stats, but for that money his stats should be a lot better than James' and quite frankly they're not.

Considering the Suns offered $60 million for six years to JJ. I think that was a fair offer. $75 over FIVE years for 20 ppg is not.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Yes, JJ is better than James, but the notion his PERFORMANCE makes him a super max guy -- I don't think so. JJ has good stats, but for that money his stats should be a lot better than James' and quite frankly they're not.

so again - you're just completely going to ignore the IMPACT that JJ had on the Hawks, winning 13+ games with virtually nothing else added to the roster, versus Mike James going to Toronto along with Villanueva while helping them to LOSE 6 MORE GAMES.

George what does sand taste like? You seem to bury your head in it quite often here.

 

[Mainstreet]

why would Seattle want KT though? That's what makes me question the trade. I could see if we threw in our first rounder next year, otherwise, the trade doesn't make much sense to me.

That being said, getting Wilcox for 8 million per for the next three years is enticing. I think the guy could flourish in DA's style. The question though would be what happens with Diaw/Marion - it would seem like one of those three guys wouldn't be on the roster come next off-season with us being wayyy over the luxury tax. If it came down to Diaw or Wilcox, I'd take Diaw at 2 or 3 million more per any day of the week.

What if the Suns attached two first round picks with a KT trade for Wilcox? I think the Suns might consider this option if they are high on him. It seems to me that D'Antoni favors players that are ready to play now. And I'm sure they could put stipulations on the picks to make sure they do not give up a high pick.

It would seem to me that some other teams might be more interested in this type of trade, perhaps a team like Cleveland for Gooden. However, (hopefully) just one first round pick would get it done.

Anyway, just a thought. I do think D'Antoni would give up two first round picks for the right player and to move KT's contract. Also most teams would probably consider themselves lucky to draft a young 4/5 that can play now if they had two first round picks.

A bird in the hand, rather than two in the bush philosphy so to speak.