Suns Reject Pacers offer of Hibbert for Dragic

[BC867]

the two forward positions are going to be shifted even smaller because of heavier minutes for the star guards. The bottom line is that having Bledsoe on the roster is going to mean lots and lots of small ball, more severe than we've ever seen from this franchise. It just doesn't add up any other way.

Thank you, Eric. This is the only post that addresses the trickle-down effect in my post.

 

[sunsfan88]

Have done a bit of analysis and it looks like we're probably one guard heavy suggesting that Bledsoe might not be so important after all, and that maybe the Suns did actually forecast the offseason playing out how it is (big assumption here) hence the acquisition of Thomas.



Wasn't expecting that even though it was probably a pretty obvious conclusion.



If Bledsoe does stick around then good players from last year - Green, Dragic, Tucker, Thomas, Marcus - might have to reduce their minutes, significantly in Thomas's and Marcus's case, to make a sensible rotation work.



Feel free to point out where i've gone wrong (numbers in brackets are what they played last year and non-bracketed numbers my guess for the upcoming season):



Guards x 2 / 96 minutes



Dragic - 32 mins (36 mins)

Bledsoe - 30 mins (33 mins)

Thomas - 26 mins (35 mins)

Green - 6 mins (28 mins)

Goodwin - 2 mins (10 mins)





SF x1 / 48 mins



Tucker - 20 mins (30 mins)

Green - 20 mins (28 mins)

Warren – 8 mins (n/a)



PF x 1 / 48 mins



Kieff - 20 mins (26 mins)

Tolliver - 18 mins (20 mins)

Marcus – 6 mins (22 mins)

Warren - 4 mins (n/a)



C x 1 / 48 mins



Plumlee – 18 mins (25 mins)

Len – 18 mins (9 mins)

Kieff – 8 mins (26 mins)

Marcus – 4 mins (22 mins)

Tyler Ennis?

 

[Phrazbit]

Whether Bledsoe is here or not we're going to be playing a lot of small ball because we lack talented big men. And I think we'd all prefer that not to be the case but its not like there were many opportunities to resolve that problem this summer. Based on the market our best chance for a more size than our current roster arguably would have been to outbid Orlando for Frye... and I don't think anyone here would have been thrilled with that long term.

So, I'd rather put together a good small ball team than a mediocre one.

 

[3rdside]

I don't think that limiting Dragic and Bledsoe to 32 and 30 minutes is realistic. It's good to have depth, but the team will be better when its best players are on the floor, and if the goal is to win, you can't regularly have your best players playing 2/3 of the game or less. You won't find any example, I don't think, of an NBA team getting through a season with no one on the roster averaging at least in the mid-30s.

(Edit: Okay, actually the Spurs did it just last season. No one averaged even 30. That's amazing -- probably impossible to duplicate, but it did happen.)

So that means a chain reaction: Even less time for Green at SG (this is assuming Bledsoe is in the fold), pushing him to SF; probably no minutes for Warren at SF, pushing him to PF; and fewer minutes for Tolliver, almost certainly.

As for the center rotation, I can't imagine that Len is ready for 18 minutes a game, so it's probably going to be Plumlee in the 20s and the twins.

My first reaction to your list is that 10 minutes for Marcus Morris is too few. But maybe not. He's a less good player than his brother, maybe less good than Tolliver, and hopefully Warren will start beating him for court time sooner rather than later. So I could easily see Marcus having a hard time staying in the rotation, in which case your projection of 10 might be pretty good.

Overall I'd guess that your list is pretty close, but that the two forward positions are going to be shifted even smaller because of heavier minutes for the star guards. The bottom line is that having Bledsoe on the roster is going to mean lots and lots of small ball, more severe than we've ever seen from this franchise. It just doesn't add up any other way.

1. It doesn't add up unless we lose a guard; if Bledsoe goes for the QO then I'd imagine his minutes will drop a fair bit which appears a pretty likely outcome at this stage (hence feeling that maybe they saw this one coming). Otherwise it is serious small ball that even i'm worried by the sound of (and you know how much I don't have a problem with it). Interesting point about the Spurs though.

2. Is it true small ball if we play 3 guards and a 7 footer? I make no claim to knowing what the Suns intend to do but i 'feel' like Len will offset the '3 guards on the floor at one time' concern. I could be horribly wrong here.

3. I like Green a lot and have the opposite view Phrazbit; I think he is a big part of the team. Agree to disagree.

4. I don't think thomas would have agreed to come here if his minutes were to nearly halve, JCF. Again, agree to disagree. And regarding Tolliver, I've got a good feeling about this guy, which i've outlined elsewhere, but this one's an educated (if you can call it that) guess and not much else.

5. BC - I think that is the conclusion; that we're seriously small unless we lose a guard.

6. Tyler Ennis didn't make the 12 man rotation.

7.

Even in t3s's original list..

Anyone know how to change a name?! I've emailed the mods a few times with no response and 'the' is really annoying me (i'm not the real hardaway from years ago if anyone thought that); if i could drop it that would suit me much better.

 

[elindholm]

2. Is it true small ball if we play 3 guards and a 7 footer? I make no claim to knowing what the Suns intend to do but i 'feel' like Len will offset the '3 guards on the floor at one time' concern.

We definitely have different projections about how much Len will contribute. I see him as being not consistently in the rotation at all. As to your general questions, if it's three combo guards, a tweener forward, and an ineffective 7-foot center, I'd still call that small ball.

3. I like Green a lot and have the opposite view Phrazbit; I think he is a big part of the team. Agree to disagree.

I'm with you; I think the Suns need Green's shooting and moxie.

4. I don't think thomas would have agreed to come here if his minutes were to nearly halve, JCF. Again, agree to disagree. And regarding Tolliver, I've got a good feeling about this guy, which i've outlined elsewhere, but this one's an educated (if you can call it that) guess and not much else.

I agree on Thomas. As for Tolliver, a lot comes down to how quickly Warren develops. I don't think Tolliver and Warren are going to see much floor time together, so, for the most part, their minutes will come at the expense of one another's. Tolliver will also get some time at center, I suppose.

Anyone know how to change a name?!

I've seen it happen a couple of times, but that was under different owners. Have you contacted Shaggy?

 

[SirStefan32]

Len will not offset anything. Len is a stiff with no skills. He is a liability.
We can argue over if he will be any good a year or two or three from now, but right now he is a useless stiff who will offset nothing.

 

[3rdside]

I'm definitely a Len homer but we'll find out soon enough when the season starts, and I think you're right about Tolliver at C..It's the Suns, it will happen.

Thanks for the tip - will drop Shaggy a line.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Len will not offset anything. Len is a stiff with no skills. He is a liability.
We can argue over if he will be any good a year or two or three from now, but right now he is a useless stiff who will offset nothing.

Yeah, he's shown flashes, but they're few and far between and he's always injured. Hope he proves me wrong, but I'm officially worried.

 

[sunsfan88]

I'll wait til the regular season in his 2nd season starts before panicking about Len.

McD better be praying that Noel busts/sucks cause he will recieve huge backlash from the media and fans for Noel not being the 1st center selected in the draft if Noel turns out good.

 

[Ronin]

I'll never understand the Nerlens Noel hype.
Seems like a rich mans loren woods to me.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'll never understand the Nerlens Noel hype.
Seems like a rich mans loren woods to me.

Well, if you're talking a healthy rich man's Loren Woods, you're talking about a game changing big man. But I suspect you're talking about the Loren Woods after the Valley Fever/back problems. That version of Loren Woods wasn't anything special.

Steve

 

[Ronin]

Well, if you're talking a healthy rich man's Loren Woods, you're talking about a game changing big man. But I suspect you're talking about the Loren Woods after the Valley Fever/back problems. That version of Loren Woods wasn't anything special.

Steve

Back problems? is that why he fell all the way to the second round. I remember on draft night Knick fans going crazy chanting his name so that the Knicks front office would pick him.lol.

as for Noel I don't think he will be anything special,,,struggles posting up his man and struggles one on one defense,,,hes just raw and needs to gain weight so he won't be pushed around by the nba big man.

 

[FutureSuperstar]

Len will not offset anything. Len is a stiff with no skills. He is a liability.
We can argue over if he will be any good a year or two or three from now, but right now he is a useless stiff who will offset nothing.

Len is definitely not a stiff. It sounds harsh, but your post loses all credibility saying that. For a guy at 7-2, which is what Len's listed height should be in shoes, he is definitely not a stiff and definitely either average or above-average in terms of his athleticism / quickness.

When Len came back from being out in January, he wasn't moving that well in terms of his verticality (Like in the Nuggets game for example) - He had no lift at all ... THIS is the version of Len that is probably in your memory ... But as the season went on, he got his lift back to acceptable levels. He will never be known for his vertical leap, but how many 7-2' players in the history of the game were?

As I said in a different post, I think people's view of Len would change if they accept that he's 7-2 (He should be listed at that ... He looked about an inch taller than Alec Brown during SL when they were side-by side and Brown was just measured at 7-1 in shoes ... and look at the 2013 draft photo of all the guys on stage - Len towers over Zeller/Adams) ... The problem is that people are viewing him incorrectly as just another 6-11, 7 ft. center (Meaning you may know he's 7-1, but your mind when evaluating him doesn't distinguish him from the other 6-11 C's on the court when you evaluate his play) and thus your opinions on his athleticism aren't fair at all because you're evaluating his athleticism against smaller players.

Also it may sound crazy, but I think a lot of people underestimate how much height matters for a center in the NBA ... It's probably because games are filmed from almost a birds-eye view, so it's difficult to see how much an extra 2-3 inches for a big guy matters in live action ... I say this because by not recognizing Len's length, not only are people incorrectly judging his athleticism, but you're under-estimating his impact on the court.

For ex., A 6-11 guy with average / solid athleticism is obviously << A 6-11 guy w/ great athleticism from a physical standpt. .... This is people's skewed view of Len I think

However, I would argue a 7-2 guy w/ average / solid athleticism is > A 6-11 guy w/ great athleticism from a physical standpt. ... It's hard to quantify these two things, but I'm just saying to judge Len for who he is (meaning not to just ignore the huge advantage he has height-wise)

It's weird, but I also get the sense that the longer the offseason has gone, the more people have given up on Len ... All this time, Len is improving though - It seems people aren't recognizing that fact and taking that into consideration when predicting his play this upcoming year. Small sample size, but he looked much improved in his 1 SL game compared to the end of the regular season ... By October, I don't see how Len won't improve to the point where he could be a solid rotation player (It's not that hard for a guy as big as Len, given that he's not a stiff or dumb)

 

[FutureSuperstar]

You must be registered for see images

Here's the 2013 NBA draft photo I mentioned in my last post. Adams measured at 7 ft. in shoes at the combine - Zeller at 7.25 inches (So these guys are tall centers themselves). Unless Len is wearing much bigger shoes, he looks a good 2 (at least 1.5) inches taller than Adams/Zeller.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Back problems? is that why he fell all the way to the second round. I remember on draft night Knick fans going crazy chanting his name so that the Knicks front office would pick him.lol.

as for Noel I don't think he will be anything special,,,struggles posting up his man and struggles one on one defense,,,hes just raw and needs to gain weight so he won't be pushed around by the nba big man.

Yeah he was just starting to tear it up at UA when he went down with a back injury, the healing of which was hampered by Valley Fever in the spinal area (IIRC). He was a stiff player the rest of his career. I don't really see that in Noel but he is still raw and he has some real longterm health issues which is why most teams passed on him.

Steve

 

[Phrazbit]

Here's the 2013 NBA draft photo I mentioned in my last post. Adams measured at 7 ft. in shoes at the combine - Zeller at 7.25 inches (So these guys are tall centers themselves). Unless Len is wearing much bigger shoes, he looks a good 2 (at least 1.5) inches taller than Adams/Zeller.

Not trying to be glib here, but Len almost certainly WAS in bigger shoes because he was in a walking boot at the time following his surgery. A guy his size they'd make a special, lifted shoe for his healthy foot so it does not screw up his gait.

 

[elindholm]

Len is definitely not a stiff. It sounds harsh, but your post loses all credibility saying that.

I'm sorry, but someone who has been a thoughtful poster on this board for at least a dozen years has more credibility than someone who joined specifically to be a blind Len homer.

For a guy at 7-2, which is what Len's listed height should be in shoes, he is definitely not a stiff and definitely either average or above-average in terms of his athleticism / quickness.

That may be -- I doubt it, but let's go ahead and say that it's possible -- but even so, he has almost no basketball skill. That's what being called a "stiff" means in the context of the NBA.

However, I would argue a 7-2 guy w/ average / solid athleticism is > A 6-11 guy w/ great athleticism from a physical standpt.

Talk about losing credibility. Why don't you make two lists and compare for yourself:

6' 11" guys with great athleticism who were major impact players in the NBA

7' 2" guys with average athleticism who were major impact players in the NBA

There are going to be ten times as many players in your first list. In fact, I have a hard time thinking of even one for the second list. Rik Smits is the closest I can come up with, but he had another couple of inches.

All this time, Len is improving though - It seems people aren't recognizing that fact and taking that into consideration when predicting his play this upcoming year.

There's no evidence for that except for your blind faith.

Small sample size, but he looked much improved in his 1 SL game compared to the end of the regular season

I didn't see the game, but most of this board felt the opposite.

By October, I don't see how Len won't improve to the point where he could be a solid rotation player (It's not that hard for a guy as big as Len, given that he's not a stiff or dumb)

Yes, it is that hard. NBA-level basketball is really hard. Even if you're tall and pretty strong or pretty athletic. It's really hard. You're playing against guys who are unbelievably fast, strong, and athletic, and who have practiced making basketball decisions their entire lives, millions of repetitions, until it's second-nature. NBA players don't literally play by instinct, but it's a darn close approximation.

You can't take a guy off the street and teach him to be an NBA player in a few years. I don't care how big he is. If he's an ultra-talented athlete -- like Stoudemire -- then maybe he can pick up the game in five or six years. (Even so, Stoudemire's understanding of the game improved dramatically during his first several years in the league.)

If you play pickup ball, a big guy can come in and dominate without really having a clue what's going on. That doesn't work in the NBA. Being big is only a small piece of the puzzle. To be an effective NBA player, you have to add years and years of learning, and you have to be blessed with a great intellectual talent for the game. So far, Len has shown exactly zero indication that he has that talent, and while he may nonetheless get better after a few more years of study, to suggest that it's going to happen in just a few months is utterly ridiculous.

 

[Errntknght]

I seem to be one of the few that believes that Len can have a positive impact this season. Clearly he is nothing like an all-purpose C at this time - his awareness of what is happening around him is quite limited. But if Jeff will play him against the bigger centers that give Plums a hard time - or even a big PF that's banging our guys around - and have him concentrate on defending the one guy, Len might have enough success to feel good about himself - because he is contributing more than minutes. Of course, he has to learn the other aspects of the position but its important for young guys to have some successes on the floor, too. (I'm not suggesting that he only play is such circumstances, before you jump on that.)

 

[AzStevenCal]

I seem to be one of the few that believes that Len can have a positive impact this season. Clearly he is nothing like an all-purpose C at this time - his awareness of what is happening around him is quite limited. But if Jeff will play him against the bigger centers that give Plums a hard time - or even a big PF that's banging our guys around - and have him concentrate on defending the one guy, Len might have enough success to feel good about himself - because he is contributing more than minutes. Of course, he has to learn the other aspects of the position but its important for young guys to have some successes on the floor, too. (I'm not suggesting that he only play is such circumstances, before you jump on that.)

I don't think I'd play him against the big PF's, we really need to see Markieff take that responsibility. I think he showed last season that he could handle the physical play while on offense, now he needs to use his body just as well on defense. I have no expectations about Len. I believe we'll use him a lot because we really have no choice but I have no idea what he'll be able to give us.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

I don't think I'd play him against the big PF's, we really need to see Markieff take that responsibility. I think he showed last season that he could handle the physical play while on offense, now he needs to use his body just as well on defense. I have no expectations about Len. I believe we'll use him a lot because we really have no choice but I have no idea what he'll be able to give us.

Steve

I think there will be more than enough to go around. In fact we're more likely to see Keiff overmatched at center while Len languishes on the bench than what I suggested.

 

[FutureSuperstar]

I'm sorry, but someone who has been a thoughtful poster on this board for at least a dozen years has more credibility than someone who joined specifically to be a blind Len homer.



That may be -- I doubt it, but let's go ahead and say that it's possible -- but even so, he has almost no basketball skill. That's what being called a "stiff" means in the context of the NBA.



Talk about losing credibility. Why don't you make two lists and compare for yourself:

6' 11" guys with great athleticism who were major impact players in the NBA

7' 2" guys with average athleticism who were major impact players in the NBA

There are going to be ten times as many players in your first list. In fact, I have a hard time thinking of even one for the second list. Rik Smits is the closest I can come up with, but he had another couple of inches.



There's no evidence for that except for your blind faith.



I didn't see the game, but most of this board felt the opposite.



Yes, it is that hard. NBA-level basketball is really hard. Even if you're tall and pretty strong or pretty athletic. It's really hard. You're playing against guys who are unbelievably fast, strong, and athletic, and who have practiced making basketball decisions their entire lives, millions of repetitions, until it's second-nature. NBA players don't literally play by instinct, but it's a darn close approximation.

You can't take a guy off the street and teach him to be an NBA player in a few years. I don't care how big he is. If he's an ultra-talented athlete -- like Stoudemire -- then maybe he can pick up the game in five or six years. (Even so, Stoudemire's understanding of the game improved dramatically during his first several years in the league.)

If you play pickup ball, a big guy can come in and dominate without really having a clue what's going on. That doesn't work in the NBA. Being big is only a small piece of the puzzle. To be an effective NBA player, you have to add years and years of learning, and you have to be blessed with a great intellectual talent for the game. So far, Len has shown exactly zero indication that he has that talent, and while he may nonetheless get better after a few more years of study, to suggest that it's going to happen in just a few months is utterly ridiculous.

Skill has nothing to do w/ being a "stiff". And Len does have skills - His rebounds / minute in college was great (same as Noel), he blocks shots, he's a solid FT shooter, etc. - That is not "almost no basketball skills"

On your comment on my comparison, I was comparing those 2 things from a physical standpt. ... But if you want to talk NBA impact, well you're proving my point for me - There are way more 6-11 jumping jacks than 7-2 guys that can move well, as Len can

The bottom line is that nearly everybody on this board hasn't given Len enough time - How many centers excel in their 1st 400 minutes in their NBA career (not even considering Len's injury)? ... That's essentially 20 games for a rotation player

How did Andre Drummond look his 1st 20 games, how did Mason Plumlee play? How did "Pick any young big guy who supposedly has more potential/talent than Len" play in their 1st 20 games? Probably not good - Most big men need AT LEAST half a season (about 1,000 minutes) before they "get it" ... That is why all of the rookie big guys last year only "got it going" down the stretch of the season - Len hasn't had the opportunity to have that stretch yet.

You are talking literally as if Len was just picked off the street ... He averaged 12/8 in college in 26 mpg, he played well against Noel/Plumlee in games, he led Maryland to be a TOP 5 Rebounding Team - That is PRODUCTION; that shows he does have some talent - And if you have some talent, some agility, aren't dumb, and are 7-2, then YES - it's not that hard to be an NBA rotation player ...

No way will it take 2-3 years; I think you are vastly overrating the amount of work it takes for a guy already as skilled/talented as Len to make a contribution (I mean seriously, Miles Plumlee had terrible stats in college, didn't play on IND, and looked what he did this year !!!! ... Steven Adams had terrible stats his 1 year at Pitt. and was a rotation player for OKC in 1 YEAR !!! ... It's not that hard to rapidly improve to get into even an NBA rotation)

Also, I find it absurd how Len gets criticized by so many people for his lack of production in college when several players drafted like Aaron Gordon and Noah Vonleh had nearly identical stats (and these guys seem to avoid criticism, as they should because of their minutes) !!! ... And if you reply with "Well, they're freshman", well I could make excuses and play that game for Len too (lack of minutes, terrible PG play, terrible 3 pt. shooting, missed 1st 10 games his 1st year, played injured the 2nd half of his sophomore year)

 

[FutureSuperstar]

Not trying to be glib here, but Len almost certainly WAS in bigger shoes because he was in a walking boot at the time following his surgery. A guy his size they'd make a special, lifted shoe for his healthy foot so it does not screw up his gait.

Len wasn't wearing the boot in this picture or when he went on stage when he was drafted. He just wore it for the pictures after the draft I believe.

 

[FutureSuperstar]

To elindholm - On your credibility comment, I said his post lost all credibility, not him as a poster. That's a big difference. I evaluate posts, not posters - Everybody's post should be valued the same. If you can find something I said that makes my post not credible, please tell me. And no my opinion of the 7-2 guy vs. 6-11 guy has no bearing on my credibility because that pt. could be argued either way (Since nobody can prove 100% either way which is greater), where-as the comment that Len is a "stiff" really can't be since Len moves pretty well for his size (or at least there's no chance at all he could be defined as "stiff" or terrible in his agility, quickness, athleticism).

 

[AzStevenCal]

The bottom line is that nearly everybody on this board hasn't given Len enough time

I don't think this is true. Most of us are in wait and see mode.

Steve

 

[elindholm]

To elindholm - On your credibility comment, I said his post lost all credibility, not him as a poster. That's a big difference.

Okay, my mistake.

I evaluate posts, not posters - Everybody's post should be valued the same.

That's true only to a point. If someone demonstrates an inability to think rationally, says the same thing over and over, or is just mind-bogglingly stupid, then over time I will learn that there's no point reading their posts. But you are not in that category.

If you can find something I said that makes my post not credible, please tell me.

Well obviously whether something is credible is a matter of opinion. You might think it's plausible that Len will wind up in the Hall of Fame, whereas I would find that absurd. But if you believe it, then hey, it's credible to you. People believe in astrology too.

And no my opinion of the 7-2 guy vs. 6-11 guy has no bearing on my credibility because that pt. could be argued either way (Since nobody can prove 100% either way which is greater)

Nothing subjective can be proved 100%, so that's a pretty meaningless retort.

This page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_NBA_players gives 20 NBA players who were listed at 7' 3" or taller. (The list claims to be exhaustive, but I haven't verified that.) Only a few had significant careers.

What that indicates is that height alone is a very poor predictor of NBA success. And yet your main reason for being enthusiastic about Len is that he is tall, and that, really, his skill and talent levels aren't that bad, considering how tall he is. I find that utterly uncompelling.

where-as the comment that Len is a "stiff" really can't be since Len moves pretty well for his size (or at least there's no chance at all he could be defined as "stiff" or terrible in his agility, quickness, athleticism).

So in other words, Len can't be a stiff because you say he's not a stiff.

This conversation could go on forever, until Len either becomes a solid player or leaves the NBA. So we might as well put it on hold until one of those things happens. I think we'll see the second before the first, and you think otherwise. There's no way to know.