Surprising Development

[Harry]

Sat in on a little roundtable yesterday and the consensus was that even the teams, like the NYG, that favor a pocket passer now have Murray atop their QB rankings. Previously Haskins split off that group with mostly those favoring QB mobility leaning toward Murray. There is now concern that Haskins may not be fluid enough in the pocket to deal with the emerging dominance of edge rushers. We’re not talking about running, rather that type of move Warner perfected of just shifting in the pocket while still balanced. Warner’s ability to avoid some sacks and find a throwing lane was a large part of his success. Murray’s general footwork and agility at his Pro Day apparently convinced many he could succeed while maintaining a pocket presence, thus reducing the injury concern about mobile QBs.

I’m still not sure what this means about trading the pick except there will be more suitors.

 

[Veer]

Not really surprising that Murray is shooting up the boards. Imo he is the best QB prospect in this class. It's kind of ridiculous that there wouldn't even be any discussion who the best QB prospect is if Murray was 1 or 2 inches taller.

At this time during the 2017 draft, Pat Mahomes wasn't considered a consensual 1st round pick, but a mechanically distraught 2nd round prospect at best, based on pure arm talent. When he declared, most well known pundits gave him a 3rd round grade at best. Not a fair comparison, but it just shows you the post-season/pre-draft process is indeed valuable to get a better feeling for QB prospects.

Murray, be it at 5'9 or 5'10, can put himself in the position to deliver passes. Quick feet, feeling the rush and pocket presence are what make Russell Wilson and Drew Brees successful despite being small. Of course Murray won't be able to make some throws from the pocket like Brady or Palmer, but Murray has always been on the smaller side and is already used to find himself the throwing lanes he needs. Again, Russell Wilson has hurt us a lot since he entered the NFL. While I remember some batted passes, more often than not he escaped trouble and made us pay, or threw from different arm angles to avoid defenders.

Murray being ranked low initially is not only because of size, but also because of being the 9th overall MLB draft pick. Nobody, not even Murray himself, could know that he's gonna play himself into 1st round QB territory, let alone 1st overall consideration. Six months ago it would've sounded like a crazy joke. But here we are. Can't fault him for not really knowing which route he wanted to go. Mahomes faced the same question at some point, but was just a 30th or 35th round selection in the MLB draft. So his decision came much easier and earlier. And don't forget that Pat Mahomes Sr. wasn't a QB like Murray's crazy dad, but a longtime MLB pitcher.

I'm not the biggest fan of taking Murray 1st overall. Rosen hasn't got a fair chance yet and Bosa/Quinnen/Allen are legit elite prospects. But the Murray sceptics seem more like haters to me, which is unfair imo. Of course there are question marks, but my money is on Murray to succeed in the NFL. The question isn't whether MB/SK/KK think that Murray will succeed, but if they think Murray will become better than Rosen. If that's the case, you take him 1st overall without regret. If you think there isn't much difference between them or Murray is too much of a risk, then let's enjoy the great defensive player we draft or possibly the bunch of valuable picks we get for #1.

 

[az jam]

Good insights from both of you guys (Harry & Veer). I do think Murray's value has certainly gone up and there are teams that may be willing to trade up to get him. The Cards have a maker decision to make and are keeping everything close to the vest which does make sense.I feel that either with Murray or Rosen, the Cards will be much improved this year.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Prediction: after the Cards and Giants pass on Murray he drops out of the top 10.

 

[PACardsFan]

Not really surprising that Murray is shooting up the boards. Imo he is the best QB prospect in this class. It's kind of ridiculous that there wouldn't even be any discussion who the best QB prospect is if Murray was 1 or 2 inches taller.

At this time during the 2017 draft, Pat Mahomes wasn't considered a consensual 1st round pick, but a mechanically distraught 2nd round prospect at best, based on pure arm talent. When he declared, most well known pundits gave him a 3rd round grade at best. Not a fair comparison, but it just shows you the post-season/pre-draft process is indeed valuable to get a better feeling for QB prospects.

Murray, be it at 5'9 or 5'10, can put himself in the position to deliver passes. Quick feet, feeling the rush and pocket presence are what make Russell Wilson and Drew Brees successful despite being small. Of course Murray won't be able to make some throws from the pocket like Brady or Palmer, but Murray has always been on the smaller side and is already used to find himself the throwing lanes he needs. Again, Russell Wilson has hurt us a lot since he entered the NFL. While I remember some batted passes, more often than not he escaped trouble and made us pay, or threw from different arm angles to avoid defenders.

Murray being ranked low initially is not only because of size, but also because of being the 9th overall MLB draft pick. Nobody, not even Murray himself, could know that he's gonna play himself into 1st round QB territory, let alone 1st overall consideration. Six months ago it would've sounded like a crazy joke. But here we are. Can't fault him for not really knowing which route he wanted to go. Mahomes faced the same question at some point, but was just a 30th or 35th round selection in the MLB draft. So his decision came much easier and earlier. And don't forget that Pat Mahomes Sr. wasn't a QB like Murray's crazy dad, but a longtime MLB pitcher.

I'm not the biggest fan of taking Murray 1st overall. Rosen hasn't got a fair chance yet and Bosa/Quinnen/Allen are legit elite prospects. But the Murray sceptics seem more like haters to me, which is unfair imo. Of course there are question marks, but my money is on Murray to succeed in the NFL. The question isn't whether MB/SK/KK think that Murray will succeed, but if they think Murray will become better than Rosen. If that's the case, you take him 1st overall without regret. If you think there isn't much difference between them or Murray is too much of a risk, then let's enjoy the great defensive player we draft or possibly the bunch of valuable picks we get for #1.

Very good post. From an overall talent standpoint, I think Murray is head & shoulders better than Rosen. In addition to his physical abilities, Murray's intangibles are off the chart. For me, this combination makes it more likely that he'll be a very good NFL QB. The decision comes down to is Murray better than Rosen+Bosa?? My position has always been that even if you get everything else wrong, if you get the QB right, then you'll consistently be a playoff team for years to come. So, IMO, the likelihood of Murray being great trumps the combination of Rosen+Bosa.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Very good post. From an overall talent standpoint, I think Murray is head & shoulders better than Rosen. In addition to his physical abilities, Murray's intangibles are off the chart. For me, this combination makes it more likely that he'll be a very good NFL QB. The decision comes down to is Murray better than Rosen+Bosa?? My position has always been that even if you get everything else wrong, if you get the QB right, then you'll consistently be a playoff team for years to come. So, IMO, the likelihood of Murray being great trumps the combination of Rosen+Bosa.

“Intangibles" - what does that even mean in this case?

 

[Ohcrap75]

Sat in on a little roundtable yesterday and the consensus was that even the teams, like the NYG, that favor a pocket passer now have Murray atop their QB rankings. Previously Haskins split off that group with mostly those favoring QB mobility leaning toward Murray. There is now concern that Haskins may not be fluid enough in the pocket to deal with the emerging dominance of edge rushers. We’re not talking about running, rather that type of move Warner perfected of just shifting in the pocket while still balanced. Warner’s ability to avoid some sacks and find a throwing lane was a large part of his success. Murray’s general footwork and agility at his Pro Day apparently convinced many he could succeed while maintaining a pocket presence, thus reducing the injury concern about mobile QBs.

I’m still not sure what this means about trading the pick except there will be more suitors.

I think this is very accurate. Murray is a better thrower than Haskins. Without getting in to the height debate that is nauseating, my one concern with Murray in the pocket is that when he saw pressure he would drop eyes immediately and look to run. Naturally, given his athleticism, this was probably the right choice in college. Was there any discussion of this? I would love to hear if so! Thanks Harry!

 

[Dr. Jones]

“Intangibles" - what does that even mean in this case?

Unseen traits that don't specifically show up in the stats. Like his speed. His ability to slide or get out of bounds without seeking out extra contact (ala Watson or RGIII). His ability to lead 3 10+ play drives in the Alabama game after his defense continued to crap the bed. His insane ability to lead a comeback versus Texas in Texas (that ultimately fell short) but made him look like a superstar in waiting.

I would suppose it would be that kinda stuff.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Not really surprising that Murray is shooting up the boards. Imo he is the best QB prospect in this class. It's kind of ridiculous that there wouldn't even be any discussion who the best QB prospect is if Murray was 1 or 2 inches taller.

At this time during the 2017 draft, Pat Mahomes wasn't considered a consensual 1st round pick, but a mechanically distraught 2nd round prospect at best, based on pure arm talent. When he declared, most well known pundits gave him a 3rd round grade at best. Not a fair comparison, but it just shows you the post-season/pre-draft process is indeed valuable to get a better feeling for QB prospects.

Murray, be it at 5'9 or 5'10, can put himself in the position to deliver passes. Quick feet, feeling the rush and pocket presence are what make Russell Wilson and Drew Brees successful despite being small. Of course Murray won't be able to make some throws from the pocket like Brady or Palmer, but Murray has always been on the smaller side and is already used to find himself the throwing lanes he needs. Again, Russell Wilson has hurt us a lot since he entered the NFL. While I remember some batted passes, more often than not he escaped trouble and made us pay, or threw from different arm angles to avoid defenders.

Murray being ranked low initially is not only because of size, but also because of being the 9th overall MLB draft pick. Nobody, not even Murray himself, could know that he's gonna play himself into 1st round QB territory, let alone 1st overall consideration. Six months ago it would've sounded like a crazy joke. But here we are. Can't fault him for not really knowing which route he wanted to go. Mahomes faced the same question at some point, but was just a 30th or 35th round selection in the MLB draft. So his decision came much easier and earlier. And don't forget that Pat Mahomes Sr. wasn't a QB like Murray's crazy dad, but a longtime MLB pitcher.

I'm not the biggest fan of taking Murray 1st overall. Rosen hasn't got a fair chance yet and Bosa/Quinnen/Allen are legit elite prospects. But the Murray sceptics seem more like haters to me, which is unfair imo. Of course there are question marks, but my money is on Murray to succeed in the NFL. The question isn't whether MB/SK/KK think that Murray will succeed, but if they think Murray will become better than Rosen. If that's the case, you take him 1st overall without regret. If you think there isn't much difference between them or Murray is too much of a risk, then let's enjoy the great defensive player we draft or possibly the bunch of valuable picks we get for #1.

People who didn't have Mahomes higher we're just being lazy.

Mahomes is the best QB to come out in a long time . His package of arm talent, smarts, and mobility are the best since Luck

Murray isn't that good. In his one game where he faced adversity he struggled, while Mahomes excelled.

 

[TheCardFan]

The decision comes down to is Murray better than Rosen+Bosa??

Excellent point.

The real unknown for us Cardinals fans is how KK and SK view Rosen and his ability to successfully transition into the new offense. They have been around him for more than a year...I am pretty sure they have a good feel for it. With that being said, Murray's floor might be slightly better than Rosen in this offense.

Based on your point, you probably have to consider more variables:

If Murray > Rosen and Bosa - you take him. I think that is low probability though.

If you think Murray can be the franchise QB then you really have to consider what you would get for Rosen into the equation.

Is Murray + (15 pick) > Rosen and Bosa?

If Murray and Rosen are close:

Is Rosen + the 6th + the 17th (or 4th and 24th) > than Rosen + Bosa

 

[BW52]

Don`t buy the hype.So now Murray can be a pocket QB? Is he just going to have a big "S" under his uniform? I guess he needs to stay away from Krytonite and he will be okay? Sorry boys I don`t buy the narrative.Discounting his physical limits in a big mans league is pure nonsense.Everybody is going to be faster,more agile and after the QB.

 

[Dr. Jones]

People who didn't have Mahomes higher we're just being lazy.

Mahomes is the best QB to come out in a long time . His package of arm talent, smarts, and mobility are the best since Luck

Murray isn't that good. In his one game where he faced adversity he struggled, while Mahomes excelled.

Man..... that Alabama game.

He threw no interceptions.
Had over 300 yards passing.
over 100 yards rushing.
and led his offense on scoring drives of 10, 10, and 14 plays. One in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter. Not just in garbage time.

His defense however was acting like a funnel to the endzone on almost every drive.

Sure he made some bad throws. And his Comp % was below his seasons average. They were in effect a one dimensional offense the minute they got down by more than 2 scores. he had to pass. they knew it. And he still sliced and diced them up and down the field, while being a little more aggressive than normal.

Did I say he had zero INT's?

 

[b8rtm8nn]

Man..... that Alabama game.

He threw no interceptions.
Had over 300 yards passing.
over 100 yards rushing.
and led his offense on scoring drives of 10, 10, and 14 plays. One in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter. Not just in garbage time.

His defense however was acting like a funnel to the endzone on almost every drive.

Sure he made some bad throws. And his Comp % was below his seasons average. They were in effect a one dimensional offense the minute they got down by more than 2 scores. he had to pass. they knew it. And he still sliced and diced them up and down the field, while being a little more aggressive than normal.

Did I say he had zero INT's?

Over the past few days, I watched both the Alabama and the Texas game specifically to see how Murray operated when in the clutch. He’s good. He should be an NFL quarterback. He should be the first quarterback taking in this draft in my opinion. But he is not transcendent like some are describing him to be. He has not shown that. His entire offense is superior and he benefits from that. If you look at the analytics , I think he is one of the worst QBs under pressure of the top five in this draft (I will try to find the stats again). His feet help him deal with the pressure but both Texas and Alabama games show how he loses his accuracy under duress.

he is probably the most athletically superior prospect for a quarterback that we’ve seen, I give him that. But he has flaws, and to ignore that is foolish.

 

[Delmar M Lewis]

Very good post. From an overall talent standpoint, I think Murray is head & shoulders better than Rosen. In addition to his physical abilities, Murray's intangibles are off the chart. For me, this combination makes it more likely that he'll be a very good NFL QB. The decision comes down to is Murray better than Rosen+Bosa?? My position has always been that even if you get everything else wrong, if you get the QB right, then you'll consistently be a playoff team for years to come. So, IMO, the likelihood of Murray being great trumps the combination of Rosen+Bosa.

While you may be right getting to the playoffs is nice but Remember the big prize is that trophy and if watched this years playoffs a team with a great defense 9 put of 10 times trumps a great offense history proves this time and time again since the very first Super Bowl

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I think this is very accurate. Murray is a better thrower than Haskins. Without getting in to the height debate that is nauseating, my one concern with Murray in the pocket is that when he saw pressure he would drop eyes immediately and look to run. Naturally, given his athleticism, this was probably the right choice in college. Was there any discussion of this? I would love to hear if so! Thanks Harry!

You've had some good takes in this whole debate, and I don't want to seem like a jerk, but can I respectfully disagree with you here sir?

Murray starts moving when he's pressured, that's true, but he still looks to throw most of the time when he's flushed from the pocket.

And holy crap is he deadly when he throws on the run. He draws defenders to him, and that leaves his guys running wide open.

Think about him an DJ running a two man game on opposing defenses. Murray breaking down the opposing front seven, and DJ getting the ball with tons of open space around him. Pretty exciting eh?

 

[football karma]

quality content Harry -- thanks!

we can now resume the "he is a midget" vs "he is awesome" endless post-fest

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Longtime Giants scout I was out with last weekend told me Haskins is at the top of their QB list.

 

[slanidrac16]

Many things to consider. One of the most important things like it or not is selling tickets and relevance. If we draft Murray ticket sales will skyrocket. Media coverage will be over the top.dont discount that. The Cardinals will draft Murray unless they get a ridiculous offer for the first pick. The Raiders make the most sense but they will have to pay big time. I would demand their #4, #27 and their second round pick and maybe more. They still would have a lot of picks and could let Murray sit behind Carr until 2020 when his cap hit will be a bit less. But without a grand slam offer like that We will draft Murray. The minute that happens the phone will start ringing with offers from potentially several teams. Giants, Redskins, Dolphins Patriots and we will take the best offer which I think will be a 1st round pick but maybe only a second...and we’ll take it. With all this in mind read the second line of my post.

 

[NJCardFan]

It's all a chess match. The Cards make waves about possibly taking Murray #1. This is designed to spark interest of possible Murray suitors who might be willing to move up to #1. Now other teams are talking about Murray in hopes someone will either want to trade up with them or to compel the Cards into drafting him so players like Bosa, Williams, or Allen drop to them. It's all a game.

 

[GuernseyCard]

It's all a chess match. The Cards make waves about possibly taking Murray #1. This is designed to spark interest of possible Murray suitors who might be willing to move up to #1. Now other teams are talking about Murray in hopes someone will either want to trade up with them or to compel the Cards into drafting him so players like Bosa, Williams, or Allen drop to them. It's all a game.

It's all rather transparent and not particularly effective as it relates to pick #1.

Murray is far from a transcending talent at QB and the consensus highest graded player in the draft is Bosa.

If there any moves toward #1 it will be because of Bosa and additionally, IMO, I don't think there is a snowball chance in Hell that the Cards will let Bosa fall into SF's lap.

SF trading for and signing Dee Ford to 5 - $87.5m would seem to indicate that they also don't believe that Bosa will fall to them.

 

[JosiahLee]

Very good post. From an overall talent standpoint, I think Murray is head & shoulders better than Rosen. In addition to his physical abilities, Murray's intangibles are off the chart. For me, this combination makes it more likely that he'll be a very good NFL QB. The decision comes down to is Murray better than Rosen+Bosa?? My position has always been that even if you get everything else wrong, if you get the QB right, then you'll consistently be a playoff team for years to come. So, IMO, the likelihood of Murray being great trumps the combination of Rosen+Bosa.

This. It’s why Seattle made the playoffs last year even though the legion of boom wasn’t completely obliterated.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Sat in on a little roundtable yesterday and the consensus was that even the teams, like the NYG, that favor a pocket passer now have Murray atop their QB rankings. Previously Haskins split off that group with mostly those favoring QB mobility leaning toward Murray. There is now concern that Haskins may not be fluid enough in the pocket to deal with the emerging dominance of edge rushers. We’re not talking about running, rather that type of move Warner perfected of just shifting in the pocket while still balanced. Warner’s ability to avoid some sacks and find a throwing lane was a large part of his success. Murray’s general footwork and agility at his Pro Day apparently convinced many he could succeed while maintaining a pocket presence, thus reducing the injury concern about mobile QBs.

I’m still not sure what this means about trading the pick except there will be more suitors.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

I hate to keep beating the analytics drum but it changed baseball and it is going to change football. This is an extensive read that owns it's flaws

 

[NJCardFan]

It's all rather transparent and not particularly effective as it relates to pick #1.

Murray is far from being a transcending talent at QB and the consensus highest graded player in the draft is Bosa.

If there any moves toward #1 it will be because of Bosa and additionally, IMO, I don't think there is a snowball chance in Hell that the Cards will let Bosa fall into SF's lap.

SF trading for and signing Dee Ford to 5 - $87.5m would seem to indicate that they also don't believe that Bosa will fall to them.

I don't disagree with you but what I said is true as well. It's a throw it against the wall and see what sticks tactic. As for there being no chance we allow Bosa to drop to SF, we are talking Keim here.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I don't disagree with you but what I said is true as well. It's a throw it against the wall and see what sticks tactic. As for there being no chance we allow Bosa to drop to SF, we are talking Keim here.

And what in Keim's history leads you to believe he'd this monumental mistake ?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I think this is very accurate. Murray is a better thrower than Haskins. Without getting in to the height debate that is nauseating, my one concern with Murray in the pocket is that when he saw pressure he would drop eyes immediately and look to run. Naturally, given his athleticism, this was probably the right choice in college. Was there any discussion of this? I would love to hear if so! Thanks Harry!

This may be your perception but this is the reality.

BTW, that is stunning accuracy.

According to the ESPN Stats & Information Group, 91 percent of Murray’s 377 pass attempts in 2018 came inside the pocket, and 81.6 percent of those throws were on target and catchable.