The Ayton Plan

CardsSunsDbacks

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I liked him a lot in Phili. But those teams were trash and were tanking aka "the process". What worries me about him is the pressure is getting to him, maybe he proves me dead wrong and shakes this off. I definitely want him to do well I just think he playing scared, which is very disappointing.

I'd love to see him traded again for Butler. :)
They were only bad in his rookie season. They won 52 games in his 2nd year and he was a big part of their rotation and was actually a starter.
 

Cheesebeef

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IMO shot alterations are as effective as blocks, Ayton does alter shots. Once the B team (Frank and Dario) comes in other teams immediately start attacking the paint. Stats can be manipulated to whatever you want. I am pretty sure Ayton's plus minus is much higher than the other bigs on the team.

I think you’re setting up a false narrative/comparison. No one (outside of elindholm) is saying Frank or Dario is better or more effective or makes the team overall better so bringing them up only serves to distract from the conversation.

as far as blocks, yes, alteration of shots is important too. But pretty sure the good shot blockers also alter their share of shots as well. And, I wasn’t even criticizing his block rate. I was pointing out that Yuma’s statement that he improved blocks and rebounding in the second half didnt line up with what was actually happening on the court.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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IMO shot alterations are as effective as blocks, Ayton does alter shots. Once the B team (Frank and Dario) comes in other teams immediately start attacking the paint. Stats can be manipulated to whatever you want. I am pretty sure Ayton's plus minus is much higher than the other bigs on the team.
A) you’re comparing Ayton’s +\- to saric, kaminsky and stix? Lol. Okay. Meaningless, but okay.

B) uh these stats aren’t “manipulated.” He’s literally gotten worse statistically as the season progressed. That’s a fact.
 
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elindholm

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I think you’re setting up a false narrative/comparison. No one (outside of elindholm) is saying Frank or Dario is better or more effective or makes the team overall better

Remind me where I said that? I'm pretty sure I've never said anything positive about Saric. What I've said is that Ayton has the same fear of failure on offense that Bender did, which is true.
 

Treesquid PhD

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Remind me where I said that? I'm pretty sure I've never said anything positive about Saric. What I've said is that Ayton has the same fear of failure on offense that Bender did, which is true.

You didn't say that, I set up a straw man argument and attacked it haha.

Man, do you really think Benders problem was fear? I think he just wasn't cut out for the NBA, iirc there was a massive over reaction to Porzingas (sp?) during that time and the suns reached. Again, I don't think Babby or RMD really were good GM's.

What I am excited about is James Jones, he is a real GM and it feels great because he is going to make a lot better choices moving forward. A+ hire by Foamy.
 

Mainstreet

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You didn't say that, I set up a straw man argument and attacked it haha.

Man, do you really think Benders problem was fear? I think he just wasn't cut out for the NBA, iirc there was a massive over reaction to Porzingas (sp?) during that time and the suns reached. Again, I don't think Babby or RMD really were good GM's.

What I am excited about is James Jones, he is a real GM and it feels great because he is going to make a lot better choices moving forward. A+ hire by Foamy.

James Jones and Monty Williams were great hires. Robert Sarver got these moves right.
 

Cheesebeef

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Remind me where I said that? I'm pretty sure I've never said anything positive about Saric. What I've said is that Ayton has the same fear of failure on offense that Bender did, which is true.
I thought you made the argument that this team might be better off offensively and defensively without Ayton. If that wasn’t your point, apologies.
 

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YOu don't just dump a player this young. Look at Julius Randle.

I don't believe anyone is advocating we dump him. I believe most here believe we shouldn't pay him until he's truly earned it. His play has not warranted an early extension for the amount he's likely to ask for.
 
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elindholm

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I thought you made the argument that this team might be better off offensively and defensively without Ayton. If that wasn’t your point, apologies.

Offensively yes, defensively, probably not. But I never inserted Kaminsky or Saric in his place. I was talking more long-term.

That said, I would be curious to start Kaminsky over Ayton for a couple of games.
 

Cheesebeef

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Offensively yes, defensively, probably not. But I never inserted Kaminsky or Saric in his place. I was talking more long-term.

That said, I would be curious to start Kaminsky over Ayton for a couple of games.

my bad on that.
 

Covert Rain

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The more I think about this the more I think the Suns plans with Ayton may hinge on the playoffs this year.

I will call it now. If Ayton shows up they will extend him. If Ayton shrinks in the playoffs?!? He will be moved by the trade deadline next season if they can get a defensive minded big in a deal.
 

CardsSunsDbacks

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The more I think about this the more I think the Suns plans with Ayton may hinge on the playoffs this year.

I will call it now. If Ayton shows up they will extend him. If Ayton shrinks in the playoffs?!? He will be moved by the trade deadline next season if they can get a defensive minded big in a deal.
And if he is tearing it up before the trade deadline next year? I wouldn't make a permanent decision over a young guy shrinking in his first playoff experience. Especially if he is dealing with the Lakers big men in his first ever playoff series.
 

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And if he is tearing it up before the trade deadline next year? I wouldn't make a permanent decision over a young guy shrinking in his first playoff experience. Especially if he is dealing with the Lakers big men in his first ever playoff series.

Thing to take into consid... would this tearing it up be the first or second five game good stretch surrounded by multiple 7-8 game stretches where he all but disappears?
 

CardsSunsDbacks

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Thing to take into consid... would this tearing it up be the first or second five game good stretch surrounded by multiple 7-8 game stretches where he all but disappears?
That would be more of the same. Tearing it up would clearly mean he has taken a step forward and thus playing better than in the past. I am referring to the whole of the season prior to the trade deadline, not a small stretch of games going into the deadline.
 

Covert Rain

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And if he is tearing it up before the trade deadline next year? I wouldn't make a permanent decision over a young guy shrinking in his first playoff experience. Especially if he is dealing with the Lakers big men in his first ever playoff series.

Maybe it wouldn't be a permanent decision. I mean if the light switch turns on permanently sure that could change things. However, what about his game has indicated that is going to happen? He is more likely a flickering light. Comes on sometimes and goes completely out the next. He will be a 4th year player by the trade deadline next year. That's plenty of time to make an evaluation.

I mean it would have to be a really really good period of tearing it up the entire first half of the season for him not to be considered in trade talk.

I will say it again. His play in the playoffs will likely go a long way towards deciding his future with this team.
 

CardsSunsDbacks

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Sure, or I guess he could become transgender and the Suns could trade him to the Mercury. They're about equally likely.
Do you believe that he is playing below his capability? If so than that means that there is a chance that he plays much better next year. I wouldn't bet on it happening, but it is certainly something that could happen. We should probably see if it does before making a firm decision that we are going to trade him. That's all I'm saying. Of course they could make that decision and then go back on it if he is playing much better. So it is likely a moot point anyways I suppose.
 
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elindholm

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Do you believe that he is playing below his capability?

Not really. I think he lacks the personality to assert himself, and the longer that pattern gets ingrained, the harder it's going to be to change. He needs a year in the G League, probably, to beat up on people and post 30 and 15 every night. And we know that that won't happen.

We should probably see if it does before making a firm decision that we are going to trade him. That's all I'm saying.

It's theoretically possible that he could have such a great year that the Suns will be desperate to keep him, but I think the chances of that are vanishingly small. (I propose keeping him until the offseason and pursuing a sign-and-trade with a team willing to gamble on his alleged potential.)

One way to think about it is, "Are the Suns ever going to fear facing this player on an opposing team"? With the other recent big-man busts of Len, Bender, and Chriss -- maybe I'm missing one -- it was clear that, even if the player ended up finding his way to competence, he was never going to be someone who could hurt you. Len has fashioned himself into a decent role player, but no opposing coach has ever said, "Okay, here's what we need to do to handle Alex Len."

That's how it is with Ayton. The only way opponents need to plan for him is, "When his teammates try to force-feed him with lob passes, here's how you make that a likely turnover." Other than that he is no weapon at all. He does have some impact on the defensive end, and once in a great while he makes a real difference there, but it's too rare an occurrence to get excited about.
 

95pro

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Basketball reference has cp3 as this years win-share leader. Year before was Booker. And the year before that was Ayton.

The organization has him as the third guy on the team, he knows, the team knows. And I think his role has been defined this year with CP3 coming on board, which is why he is struggling on when to turn it on offensively.

I believe we will keep on board as long as CP3 remains on board. Hopefully he can step up and be the number 2 guy when CP3 leaves.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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That would be more of the same. Tearing it up would clearly mean he has taken a step forward and thus playing better than in the past. I am referring to the whole of the season prior to the trade deadline, not a small stretch of games going into the deadline.
That would be a most welcome change.
 

Cheesebeef

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I think the best move is not extending him this season because I think that next year, we might get the best year any team will ever get out of Ayton... the first mammoth contract year. That’s the only thing I think ultimately motivates him to ball out an entire season.

yes, he’s already gotten a big contract just as a rookie. 40 million bucks. Which is actually 20 million post taxes, Minus another million to agent fees, probably another couple million to business manager fees. So, after that, he’s probably got 15 million cleared from the 40, which is a TON of money to be sure. But it ain’t “I can take care of generations of my family money” that comes with an NBA player’s second huge contract. I think there’s a chance he plays most nights like a beast with an actual carrot dangled in front of him.
 

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This thread is like sunshine on a cloudy day.




In Arizona in July.
 

Covert Rain

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The Contract Dispute has begun. The problem? The way Ayton played in the playoffs. You can say all you want about inconsistency etc. He still put up historical numbers during stretches of the playoffs. Now the Suns want to play you are not as good as others in your class card? Good luck.

Bottom line? If the Suns don't pay him? Multiple teams will line up to do so when he decides to leave. It's really that simple.


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