The Ayton Plan

[Cheesebeef]

My understanding is the most another team can offer in restricted free agency is 4 years. The team can match. This would keep it from an NBA Rookie max, and keep the Suns signing flexibility alive.

I have been asking if Centers are valued enough in today's NBA to get a Max as easily as other positions. That's a question in today's NBA.

Jokic - Nuggets
Capella - Hawks
Embiid - Sixers
Ayton - Suns
Davis - Lakers
Goebert - Utah

The four west teams are probably the top 4 seeds... all of them who have Centers as a major part of their core.

The Sixers were the 1 seed last year with Embiid as the main star and Capella was a key figure in Atlanta's defense that helped them get to the ECF.

And Giannis is a 6'11 BEAST who protects the rim and destroys everyone in the paint.

Big Men/Centers have had a massive resurrgence in the league since the end of the Warriors run. Anyone who thinks different is living in the past.

 

[Chaplin]

huh? merely answering your question doesn't mean I'm pissed off. please don't go back to this guy trying to start fights again with people who simply disagreed with your statement and then gave the reasons why Chap.

The whole "that's not the same and you know it" line. Just a bit condescending. But ok, it's really not a big deal.

 

[JCSunsfan]

My understanding is the most another team can offer in restricted free agency is 4 years. The team can match. This would keep it from an NBA Rookie max, and keep the Suns signing flexibility alive.

I have been asking if Centers are valued enough in today's NBA to get a Max as easily as other positions. That's a question in today's NBA.

So, the Suns can get 4 no matter what.

There is no way for Ayton to get 5 unless the Suns decide they WANT to give it to him. Can someone answer this question for me? The threat of signing the qualifying offer and then being unrestricted in a year is the most drastic recourse a RFA can take. So, what if at the beginning of free agency next year, the Suns lay a 4-year max offer on the table. Now he does not have the option of going one and out. Other teams have to beat that offer, which is impossible. The only thing they can do is structure in a way that is debilitating to the Suns, which is harder and harder to do.

Since the Suns are unwilling to give 5, the max Ayton can get from anyone is 4. Now, he is going to have to go this year without having a deal done, and no way to get a better deal than what was offered. He could get injured, he could decline, there are so many things that could happen.

It sounds to me like Ayton was not represented well by his people. From a pure negotiating perspective, this was a no-brainer for the Suns. The only danger is making Ayton unhappy, and getting criticized by pundits.

 

[Mainstreet]

This interview with Monty always sticks in my mind when he talks about Chris Paul.

Monty says Paul likes to have a big man dive to the basket because it opens up the court. Ayton and McGee are mentioned at about the 2 minute mark but it leaves me to wonder if Ayton does enough of this.

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[Cheesebeef]

The whole "that's not the same and you know it" line. Just a bit condescending. But ok, it's really not a big deal.

okay. i can say that being read that way. I just think it's a bad comparison considering where that team is with age and where we are with so many young talented guys just coming into their own.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

So the flip side, suppose the Suns didn't make the Finals, but DA was going 25 points 15 rebounds all season, I bet he gets paid. Just saying. There is some truth about "IF" he put up numbers he would have got paid. It was on Ayton to get to that level so he would have got paid.

I’m curious how he apparently sacrificed rebounds. This is the second time it’s been floated that he’s anything but a 10.5 reb/game guy. King made the idiotic comment that he “sacrificed” and included rebounds.

 

[Yuma]

So, the Suns can get 4 no matter what.

There is no way for Ayton to get 5 unless the Suns decide they WANT to give it to him. Can someone answer this question for me? The threat of signing the qualifying offer and then being unrestricted in a year is the most drastic recourse a RFA can take. So, what if at the beginning of free agency next year, the Suns lay a 4-year max offer on the table. Now he does not have the option of going one and out. Other teams have to beat that offer, which is impossible. The only thing they can do is structure in a way that is debilitating to the Suns, which is harder and harder to do.

Since the Suns are unwilling to give 5, the max Ayton can get from anyone is 4. Now, he is going to have to go this year without having a deal done, and no way to get a better deal than what was offered. He could get injured, he could decline, there are so many things that could happen.

It sounds to me like Ayton was not represented well by his people. From a pure negotiating perspective, this was a no-brainer for the Suns. The only danger is making Ayton unhappy, and getting criticized by pundits.

My understanding is we have to offer him a qualifying offer at the minimum to retain his rights. If Ayton signs the qualifying offer, he can play out that year and become unrestricted at the end of the year.

 

[TJ]

Is it on Sarver or on Jones? Legit question.

Sarver can tell Jones to piss off and sign the deal. It’s widely known that he’s heavily involved in contract negotiations

 

[Covert Rain]

So, the Suns can get 4 no matter what.

There is no way for Ayton to get 5 unless the Suns decide they WANT to give it to him. Can someone answer this question for me? The threat of signing the qualifying offer and then being unrestricted in a year is the most drastic recourse a RFA can take. So, what if at the beginning of free agency next year, the Suns lay a 4-year max offer on the table. Now he does not have the option of going one and out. Other teams have to beat that offer, which is impossible. The only thing they can do is structure in a way that is debilitating to the Suns, which is harder and harder to do.

Since the Suns are unwilling to give 5, the max Ayton can get from anyone is 4. Now, he is going to have to go this year without having a deal done, and no way to get a better deal than what was offered. He could get injured, he could decline, there are so many things that could happen.

It sounds to me like Ayton was not represented well by his people. From a pure negotiating perspective, this was a no-brainer for the Suns. The only danger is making Ayton unhappy, and getting criticized by pundits.

There is another option. Simply decline any extension offer and play out your contract. Sacrifice money in the short term for a mega contract someone will give him.

 

[sdscard4]

Oh, and I wouldn't trade Ayton for KAT straight up. The thought of Ayton plus is just disgusting.

I don't know man a motivated KAT is super dangerous. The poor guy has been devastated by covid...I can see a change of scenery which would actually put some happiness back in his life. He's an offensive stud.

 

[Mainstreet]

There is another option. Simply decline any extension offer and play out your contract. Sacrifice money in the short term for a mega contract someone will give him.

This is very risky playing for the $16 million qualifying offer. Most players won't risk it when they can get large contract offers from other teams.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

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Guess it could be worse

Holy crap that’s unreal

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't know man a motivated KAT is super dangerous. The poor guy has been devastated by covid...I can see a change of scenery which would actually put some happiness back in his life. He's an offensive stud.

I will believe in KAT as a two way player when I see it. So far in his career he is more like Demarcus Cousins, only without the technical fouls. A bunch of points on one end and an doormat on the other.

He's also missed a ton of time with injuries the last 2 years.

 

[JCSunsfan]

My understanding is we have to offer him a qualifying offer at the minimum to retain his rights. If Ayton signs the qualifying offer, he can play out that year and become unrestricted at the end of the year.

I guess that is my question. Does the qualifying offer have MAXIMUM terms. Or can the Suns just offer the max at 4 years as the QO? You are saying it has max terms. Do you know that to be true or are you assuming?

In any case, It would be hugely risky to play a minimum contract for a year and then go for a 4 year FA offer. He would sacrifice about $25 million dollars for that year, which would have to be made up in later contracts. This is especially true if the Suns are offering a 4-year max. He would clearly have to sacrifice money to leave.

Ayton should have taken the 4-year max now. Refusing that was not a wise move. He would have gotten to the next stage of free agency sooner. If he really believes in himself, he would want that. There is no benefit for him in refusing the deal offered, except that his feeling were hurt. Bad agent move. This could come back to bite him much more than the Suns. Ayton is the one taking a big risk.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I am not sure about this. Ayton is one of the better centers as far as the combo of offense and defense. He is just behind Embiid and Jokic.

The question is whether the center position is valued enough for him to the max deal. This can still be managed. The Suns can match any deal he is offered. He will be motivated this year. One of the most dangerous things I think we were going to face this year was a lazy Ayton after he got his second deal. I trust Jones on this. He seems to have a really good read on players.

“Just behind?” Ehhhhh

 

[Yuma]

Bottom line I like our combination of youth, veterans, skills, and coaching.

 

[Yuma]

I guess that is my question. Does the qualifying offer have MAXIMUM terms. Or can the Suns just offer the max at 4 years as the QO? You are saying it has max terms. Do you know that to be true or are you assuming?

In any case, It would be hugely risky to play a minimum contract for a year and then go for a 4 year FA offer. He would sacrifice about $25 million dollars for that year, which would have to be made up in later contracts. This is especially true if the Suns are offering a 4-year max. He would clearly have to sacrifice money to leave.

Ayton should have taken the 4-year max now. Refusing that was not a wise move. He would have gotten to the next stage of free agency sooner. If he really believes in himself, he would want that. There is no benefit for him in refusing the deal offered, except that his feeling were hurt. Bad agent move. This could come back to bite him much more than the Suns. Ayton is the one taking a big risk.

The qualifying offer is set by a formula.

I think what you are asking, is do the Suns have to offer just the qualifying offer? No. They can offer a four year max, a five year max, etc. They can negotiate just like any other team. Some teams knowing they can match, just tell their guys to go out and find the best deal you can, and we will match.

 

[JCSunsfan]

“Just behind?” Ehhhhh

Man. You and I see the world in such different ways. Sigh.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Man. You and I see the world in such different ways. Sigh.

You’re right. I see it this way:

Embiid
28pts
10.6 reb
3.4 assists
1.4 blocks
1 steal

Jokic
26pts
10.8 reb
8.3 assists
0.7 b
1.3 s

Ayton
14.4
10.5
1.4
1.2
0.6

Sorry, I don’t get how you define “just behind.” But that’s not it.

 

[Mainstreet]

I'm not sure if these tweets from John Gambadoro have been posted so I will add them here.

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[Hoop Head]

The qualifying offer is more something done to retain rights to match than a serious contract offer. Like when we extended the QO to Kelly Oubre, we gave him a substantial raise that season and the next. I think the QO was around $8-9 million but then we signed him for $16m a year for 2 years. Not much weight should be given to the dollar amount. If a player accepts it then they want to leave as an unrestricted free agent.

If a team doesn't extend the QO then they lose all rights to that player, both matching rights and bird rights to go over the cap to offer a deal.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm not sure if these tweets from John Gambadoro have been posted so I will add them here.

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Eh... if the second tweet happens so be it.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Is there ANY financial benefit to the Suns by not extending him to the 5-year max until next offseason? Does this save us one year of Luxury Tax? Give us a mid-level exception to play with? Anything?

He's obviously getting a max deal somewhere and we will match it. I just don't understand waiting a year and risking the good karma it would have given the locker room UNLESS there is some financial incentive in waiting till after the season.

Anyone?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Is there ANY financial benefit to the Suns by not extending him to the 5-year max until next offseason? Does this save us one year of Luxury Tax? Give us a mid-level exception to play with? Anything?

He's obviously getting a max deal somewhere and we will match it. I just don't understand waiting a year and risking the good karma it would have given the locker room UNLESS there is some financial incentive in waiting till after the season.

Anyone?

Well if he sucks or gets permanently injured there’s a lot of savings.

 

[Phrazbit]

Is there ANY financial benefit to the Suns by not extending him to the 5-year max until next offseason? Does this save us one year of Luxury Tax? Give us a mid-level exception to play with? Anything?

He's obviously getting a max deal somewhere and we will match it. I just don't understand waiting a year and risking the good karma it would have given the locker room UNLESS there is some financial incentive in waiting till after the season.

Anyone?

No. If a 5 year max is his most likely outcome then it is really silly to not give it to him now. If they are gambling that someone will sign him to the cheaper 4 year max and then the Suns can match... I don't think it will happen. It will end up playing out like the Bledsoe summer, no one is going to do the Suns the favor of offering Ayton a contract that the Suns will instantly match, the rest of the league will sit back and let it fester, or get in Ayton's ear about forcing a sign and trade.

I ultimately agree that Ayton will be retained and the only question will be option years, but this is all allowing for needless drama.

I have to wonder how much Ayton hurt his chances of being offered the 5 year max when, as a rookie, he openly questioned how guys stay motivated after getting max deals.