The Bledsoe dilemma

[Sci Fi]

So it's been suggested that the Dragic-Bledsoe backcourt won't work. I'm not buying it (mostly because of Dragic) but beyond that problem I see the Suns as having a much bigger problem with Bledsoe. His contract. How much is he worth and when to sign?

I was just reading about this elsewhere and one poster suggested that Bledsoe was worth no more than what a good sixth man is worth. I kind of agree, maybe a touch more, but I doubt he'd sign before the extension deadline for that value.

So what do the Suns do? Kind of a sticky wicket McDonough has created for himself. He probably won't sign an extension unless the Suns way overpay considering all the hype and if the Suns wait, you know some foolish GM will offer up some huge contract next offseason if Bledsoe does anything good, also leaving the Suns to overpay.

Did McDonough outsmart himself? Is Bledsoe really that good? His stats certainly don't paint an attractive picture. His main skill is defensive and that's the cheapest skill to buy in the NBA. Tony Allen was just signed for 20/4. Is Bledsoe really worth a lot more? Can he play PG as a starter and excel? Can the Suns build around him or is his best use as an asset to be traded this year?

 

[elindholm]

I'd be very surprised if any GM, no matter how foolish, blows their cap space next summer on Bledsoe. There will be bigger names on the market. A small overpayment would be matched by the Suns anyway (assuming he pans out at all), and a big overpayment is just too risky.

As long as the Suns offer a contract averaging a bit more than the MLE, they're safe. Whether Bledsoe proves to be worth that is another story.

 

[Sci Fi]

I'd be very surprised if any GM, no matter how foolish, blows their cap space next summer on Bledsoe. There will be bigger names on the market. A small overpayment would be matched by the Suns anyway (assuming he pans out at all), and a big overpayment is just too risky.

As long as the Suns offer a contract averaging a bit more than the MLE, they're safe. Whether Bledsoe proves to be worth that is another story.

OJ Mayo just signed for 24/3. Last year he averaged only 15.5 pts/36 after a huge start. By the end of the season, Carlisle was calling him out publicly and it was clear he wasn't coming back. I think you're giving the GM community too much credit.

 

[elindholm]

OJ Mayo just signed for 24/3. Last year he averaged only 15.5 pts/36 after a huge start. By the end of the season, Carlisle was calling him out publicly and it was clear he wasn't coming back. I think you're giving the GM community too much credit.

24/3 isn't that damaging a contract, and Mayo is almost certainly a better player than Bledsoe.

 

[Chaplin]

24/3 isn't that damaging a contract, and Mayo is almost certainly a better player than Bledsoe.

And how exactly did you come to that opinion? Especially when Mayo is a starter and Bledsoe has not been?

You either dislike Bledsoe or are thinking as negatively as possible to avoid any possibility of letdown. What is it you want?

 

[elindholm]

And how exactly did you come to that opinion? Especially when Mayo is a starter and Bledsoe has not been?

Mayo is a significantly better shooter, for openers. 38% vs. 31% 3FG, 82% vs. 75% FT.

Bledsoe's assist rate his higher, but so is his turnover rate. So his PG potential doesn't look any better than Mayo's, and Mayo is a pure SG.

Mayo obviously has much better size (6' 4", 210 vs. 6' 1", 195), and his foul rate is lower.

Becoming a starter won't make Bledsoe bigger, or more careful with the ball, or a better shooter. If anything, his numbers are likely to suffer when he goes up against other starters rather than bench players.

You either dislike Bledsoe or are thinking as negatively as possible to avoid any possibility of letdown. What is it you want?

Oh for god's sake. Pretend for a moment that both Mayo and Bledsoe play in the Eastern Conference somewhere, and then tell me honestly which one you think is a better player. Or ask 100 neutral fans what they think. Putting on a Suns jersey doesn't suddenly make you better.

 

[Errntknght]

Eric:

Putting on a Suns jersey doesn't suddenly make you better.

Why wasn't I informed of this???


The change of situation, however, may improve his play - it would be kind of depressing to be Chris Paul's backup, for one thing. Recall how ghastly all Nash's backups played, though Paul is probably not quite as difficult an act to follow. But being a starter, even having higher expectations put on him, may bring out his best. I think the team's style of play will suit him better and he may do better with Goran carrying the larger share of the playmaking. Its possible the change will have the opposite effect but, heck, I'm going to be optimistic for now.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I really don't know what to expect out of Bledsoe. The most encouraging thing about him is that he was drawing significant interest around the league. I'm not penciling him into the HOF but I'm not convinced his worst moments as a Clipper necessarily define him. I do worry though about having to make a decision on him before we really know what he is. He's still only 23 and he's coming into a spot where he will be given every opportunity to be the star. I have no idea whether he'll wilt or rise to the occasion.

Steve

 

[slinslin]

I'd rather pay Bledsoe $7.5 - 8M per season than Dragic, where is the dilemma?

 

[Chaplin]

Oh for god's sake. Pretend for a moment that both Mayo and Bledsoe play in the Eastern Conference somewhere, and then tell me honestly which one you think is a better player. Or ask 100 neutral fans what they think. Putting on a Suns jersey doesn't suddenly make you better.

I find it surprising that you of all people are putting words in my mouth. I can see being cautious about the trade, but to start throwing out comparisons to players in completely different situations doesn't seem fair to Bledsoe. If he proves he can be as good (or hopefully better), then great, if not, well, that's the chance you take. Considering we traded Dudley for him, I don't think we need him to be a star to show the trade was at least even.

 

[elindholm]

I find it surprising that you of all people are putting words in my mouth.

You lost me. Didn't you just call me out for saying that Mayo is a better player than Bledsoe? What should I have interpreted from that, other than that you disagree?

Considering we traded Dudley for him, I don't think we need him to be a star to show the trade was at least even.

Completely irrelevant. The question I was responding to was whether $24M/3yr was a "foolish" overpayment for Mayo.

 

[Griffin]

HoopsWorld thinks it's unlikely the Suns will extend Bledsoe now:

Eric Bledsoe: It’s possible that Phoenix does a deal with Bledsoe before the deadline, although given where Phoenix is at in terms of re-building. They may opt to wait and do a Bledsoe deal in free agency and preserve their capspace for the free agent class of 2014. Point guards have commanded serious money and that may be the only obstacle to a long-term deal.

STATUS: Possible, but unlikely.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-extension-time-for-the-class-of-2010

It's an interesting problem. By not extending him now, you are betting that his market value next summer will be less than what he is or is likely to ask for now. But at the same time, you will be featuring him as your star player (by default, really) and you are expecting him to have a breakout season, which, should it happen, would surely drive his price tag up from where it is now.

The Suns have until October 31st to decide. I think they will try to re-sign him near the deadline, but they won't offer a huge deal. Probably no more than what Dragic got. Then it will be up to Bledsoe's camp to gamble on taking sure money or passing.

 

[Phrazbit]

I mentioned on another site, prior to the trade, that if the Suns had Bledsoe I think he would be their best player. And I still feel that way. Watching him play, his impact goes beyond the stat sheet. He is extremely disruptive on defense and, while still developing as an offensive player, I think he has just as much offensive ability as anyone on the current roster. I'm excited to see what he can do with consistent starters minutes and away from Del Negro, who I think was one of the worst coaches in the league.

If the Suns signed him to a 4 year 30 million extension tomorrow IMO in a year it would look like a steal.

One caveat... when I said I felt he would be the Suns best player, I am not attempting to claim Bledsoe is going to be an All-Star. The prediction is as much of a compliment to Bledsoe as it is a knock on our current "talent".

 

[Mainstreet]

I really don't know what to expect out of Bledsoe. The most encouraging thing about him is that he was drawing significant interest around the league. I'm not penciling him into the HOF but I'm not convinced his worst moments as a Clipper necessarily define him. I do worry though about having to make a decision on him before we really know what he is. He's still only 23 and he's coming into a spot where he will be given every opportunity to be the star. I have no idea whether he'll wilt or rise to the occasion.

Steve

I find it surprising that you of all people are putting words in my mouth. I can see being cautious about the trade, but to start throwing out comparisons to players in completely different situations doesn't seem fair to Bledsoe. If he proves he can be as good (or hopefully better), then great, if not, well, that's the chance you take. Considering we traded Dudley for him, I don't think we need him to be a star to show the trade was at least even.

The Suns have until October 31st to decide. I think they will try to re-sign him near the deadline, but they won't offer a huge deal. Probably no more than what Dragic got. Then it will be up to Bledsoe's camp to gamble on taking sure money or passing.

The above describes things fairly well. The Suns will look at Bledsoe, kick the tires and then decide what they want to do. He might even be an attractive piece to include in a trade. IMO, the Suns did well to acquire Bledsoe for Dudley as the Suns are moving towards the young and athletic mode.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I mentioned on another site, prior to the trade, that if the Suns had Bledsoe I think he would be their best player. And I still feel that way. Watching him play, his impact goes beyond the stat sheet. He is extremely disruptive on defense and, while still developing as an offensive player, I think he has just as much offensive ability as anyone on the current roster. I'm excited to see what he can do with consistent starters minutes and away from Del Negro, who I think was one of the worst coaches in the league.

If the Suns signed him to a 4 year 30 million extension tomorrow IMO in a year it would look like a steal.

One caveat... when I said I felt he would be the Suns best player, I am not attempting to claim Bledsoe is going to be an All-Star. The prediction is as much of a compliment to Bledsoe as it is a knock on our current "talent".

I'd be hesitant to pay him over 7 million per year...you'd be gambling that he'd turn into a decent starter at that money. I'd hold at 6-7 million now, and pay him more if he ends up being better than that. He'd have to show some major improvement to be worth that much.

You don't win in the NBA by overpaying average/decent talent.

 

[Phrazbit]

I'd be hesitant to pay him over 7 million per year...you'd be gambling that he'd turn into a decent starter at that money. I'd hold at 6-7 million now, and pay him more if he ends up being better than that. He'd have to show some major improvement to be worth that much.

You don't win in the NBA by overpaying average/decent talent.

And there is the disconnect. I dont doubt he can be, at minimum, a decent starter, especially if he primarily plays at point. My larger concern with Bledsoe is not his talent (where I think he will be a well above average starter), its more about how he and Dragic mix. I'm not sold that the two of them will combine for an effective back court. I think they will be dynamite in transition but when teams force us to play half court offense it could be really ugly.

 

[Sci Fi]

And there is the disconnect. I dont doubt he can be, at minimum, a decent starter, especially if he primarily plays at point. My larger concern with Bledsoe is not his talent (where I think he will be a well above average starter), its more about how he and Dragic mix. I'm not sold that the two of them will combine for an effective back court. I think they will be dynamite in transition but when teams force us to play half court offense it could be really ugly.

Define decent starter. Two of the most important things you need to do as an NBA PG is put the ball in the basket and pass. It really not overstating his history to say he has shown neither ability.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

And there is the disconnect. I dont doubt he can be, at minimum, a decent starter, especially if he primarily plays at point. My larger concern with Bledsoe is not his talent (where I think he will be a well above average starter), its more about how he and Dragic mix. I'm not sold that the two of them will combine for an effective back court. I think they will be dynamite in transition but when teams force us to play half court offense it could be really ugly.

Yeah, I guess I'm less concerned about one or the other playing off the ball, as Dragic (and Bledsoe for that matter) has also done it in the past. It'll be one of the more interesting aspects of this season and the team moving forward.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Pundits picking this team for last in the west are going to look bad. Real bad..

Nice to see you posting again! You going to address this question, (specifically the teams in the West we'll be better than) or continue to make outlandish statements without backing them up?

 

[Errntknght]

And there is the disconnect. I dont doubt he can be, at minimum, a decent starter, especially if he primarily plays at point. My larger concern with Bledsoe is not his talent (where I think he will be a well above average starter), its more about how he and Dragic mix. I'm not sold that the two of them will combine for an effective back court. I think they will be dynamite in transition but when teams force us to play half court offense it could be really ugly.

Thats true but it's mainly a function who they have throw the ball to - which is exactly what we want for this year. We're going to be somewhat better on defense and have a better transition game than last year so if we don't get seriously worse some place we'll have a better record. I'm far more worried about us winning too many games than too few. Gortat playing for a new contract is the worst of my fears - playing hard every night he's an average center. If we have to rely on the Morri and Frye for our frontcourt scoring I think we're pretty safe and if Len or Goodwin hits their stride quick I can live with that.

 

[Sci Fi]

Nice to see you posting again! You going to address this question, (specifically the teams in the West we'll be better than) or continue to make outlandish statements without backing them up?

I'd be happy to answer your question. I plan on doing a post on my opinion of where the Suns stands and the WC before the preseason starts. I'd encourage everyone to do so. I'm not the only one making outlandish statements here. Hell, someone in this very thread said Bledsoe was worth $8M. Now that's outlandish.

Quickly, though, I expect the Suns to finish 10-12 in the WC. Wins will be about 33-36. Possible range is 8-15 in the WC. The only way they finish last is to actively tank. Like trade Gortat and then tank some more. I don't expect that from Hornacek but McDonough scares me. I'm unimpressed with his moves. He's collected a pretty big pile of junk/question marks (outside of Len) from my perspective. Let's see if he can polish this turd.

Still, much improved coaching along with a breakout year from Dragic will keep them out of the cellar. Dragic was awesome in Eurobasket and I expect big things. Hornacek just needs to keep Bledsoe from trying to do things he can't.

 

[Neo]

I expect the Suns to finish 10-12 in the WC. . . The only way they finish last is to actively tank. Like trade Gortat and then tank some more.

So who in the Western Conference has a worse roster than the Suns?

And if we are going to finish between 10-12 who are the 3-5 teams that you see us being better than?

 

[Superbone]

I think Bledsoe will be considerably better than what Eric is projecting but we'll see. Let's revisit this thread at the end of the season.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think Bledsoe will be considerably better than what Eric is projecting but we'll see. Let's revisit this thread at the end of the season.

All I can say is, win or lose, this is a much more intriguing roster than the one we entered last season with. We have a lot of question marks but there's no denying that we have upgraded significantly when it comes to athleticism.

Steve

 

[Phrazbit]

Athleticism has been upgraded and more important to me, is we have a lot of guys who have room to grow. Some of them will certainly disappoint, but at least there is the hope of someone turning into a stud.

Opposed to last year's team was covered in veteran players or washouts, a team with almost no potential to grow. Age and experience wise, the type of team that is constructed to "win now"... only they forgot to add talent.