The Bledsoe dilemma

[Phrazbit]

I'd be happy to answer your question. I plan on doing a post on my opinion of where the Suns stands and the WC before the preseason starts. I'd encourage everyone to do so. I'm not the only one making outlandish statements here. Hell, someone in this very thread said Bledsoe was worth $8M. Now that's outlandish.

Quickly, though, I expect the Suns to finish 10-12 in the WC. Wins will be about 33-36. Possible range is 8-15 in the WC. The only way they finish last is to actively tank. Like trade Gortat and then tank some more. I don't expect that from Hornacek but McDonough scares me. I'm unimpressed with his moves. He's collected a pretty big pile of junk/question marks (outside of Len) from my perspective. Let's see if he can polish this turd.

Still, much improved coaching along with a breakout year from Dragic will keep them out of the cellar. Dragic was awesome in Eurobasket and I expect big things. Hornacek just needs to keep Bledsoe from trying to do things he can't.

So... you dont like the moves we have made... but you expect the team to improve significantly? And to give yourself an excuse as to why they will in fact suck you're going to blame tanking (or the obviously impending Gortat trade)... rather than the fact that we have a roster severely short on talent.

 

[Sci Fi]

So who in the Western Conference has a worse roster than the Suns?

And if we are going to finish between 10-12 who are the 3-5 teams that you see us being better than?

The roster question I haven't really thought about. The only team I can clearly say has a worse roster is Utah. Wow, they're going to be terribad. They might have the most turnovers of any team in the last 10 years. And how are they going to score? They obviously have some nice pieces but they need some more seasoning. And a new coach. Beyond that, I haven't given it a lot of thought. I just don't look at that aspect when trying to decide projections. A team can be much more or less than the sum of their parts. It happens all the time. That's why I'm so excited about Hornacek. Given his track record, I think he's going to be great and will get a lot out of this admittedly limited roster.

As to teams worse, I haven't firmed up numbers yet but it will be the usual suspects. Sacramento, New Orleans, Minnesota, Portland. Minnesota will find some way to lose. They always do. Even with Rubio. Sad.

 

[Sci Fi]

So... you dont like the moves we have made... but you expect the team to improve significantly? And to give yourself an excuse as to why they will in fact suck you're going to blame tanking (or the obviously impending Gortat trade)... rather than the fact that we have a roster severely short on talent.

The problem you have here is that you think the team that finished last year is the one that is starting this one. But the two biggest problems from last year, Beasley and Gentry, are gone. Addition by subtraction.

As to leaving myself any outs, that's kind of funny. I'm basically the only person I've seen saying this team won't be that bad and then stating why. Do you really think I'm trying to CMA? Why would I do that when I so vehemently believe I'm correct. If I'm wrong, I'll say so. Will you?

 

[Phrazbit]

The problem you have here is that you think the team that finished last year is the one that is starting this one. But the two biggest problems from last year, Beasley and Gentry, are gone. Addition by subtraction.

As to leaving myself any outs, that's kind of funny. I'm basically the only person I've seen saying this team won't be that bad and then stating why. Do you really think I'm trying to CMA? Why would I do that when I so vehemently believe I'm correct. If I'm wrong, I'll say so. Will you?

Yeah, I will... but I am not putting excuses out there first. The impression I got from your post is that if the team is 15-30 and then trades Gortat you'll blame tanking but really the roster is just not up to par.

I think Utah should be better than us but they are the other awful West team, other than them I dont think it will be a contest for the cellar in the conference.

 

[elindholm]

But the two biggest problems from last year, Beasley and Gentry, are gone. Addition by subtraction.

I'd find this more compelling if last year's team had played any better when Hunter was coaching and Beasley was benched. They didn't.

 

[Sci Fi]

I'd find this more compelling if last year's team had played any better when Hunter was coaching and Beasley was benched. They didn't.

Ah, but they did before Gortat was hurt. They finished 4-18 after that. Still, it's hard to change coaches mid-season and expect big changes. Gentry and Beasley had already ruined things. Plus, they didn't really get a new coach. They got a "player developer". Hunter was no coach.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Ah, but they did before Gortat was hurt. They finished 4-18 after that. Still, it's hard to change coaches mid-season and expect big changes. Gentry and Beasley had already ruined things. Plus, they didn't really get a new coach. They got a "player developer". Hunter was no coach.

I don't know that I buy into the Gentry comment but I agree with the rest of this. Beasley did much of his damage to this team quite early in the season. The rest of it was just marking time.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

The Pels will probably be in the running for the bottom rung in the West... they are poor mix of players. I think they'll miss Robin Lopez and Holiday is not much of an upgrade over Vasquez - probably a downgrade as a playmaker. If they'd traded Eric Gordon for Tyreke that would have made some sense.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

As to teams worse, I haven't firmed up numbers yet but it will be the usual suspects. Sacramento, New Orleans, Minnesota, Portland. Minnesota will find some way to lose. They always do. Even with Rubio. Sad.

All teams that ended up with better records than us last year, and many who added talent in the offseason. Gentry may not be the best coach in the league, but he's a lot better than you give him credit for. Seeing as we really haven't added much in talent at all and have a rookie HC, there is a reason that the consensus is that we'll end up with bottom 3 record in the west.

I just hope we give Bledsoe/Goodwin/Len massive minutes and let the young guys grow. Regardless of strategy, we should be a safe bet for a top 5 pick, which is just what we need in a loaded draft. As opposed to last year, at least we have something to look forward to.

 

[slinslin]

The Pels will probably be in the running for the bottom rung in the West... they are poor mix of players. I think they'll miss Robin Lopez and Holiday is not much of an upgrade over Vasquez - probably a downgrade as a playmaker. If they'd traded Eric Gordon for Tyreke that would have made some sense.

And now they have Tyreke and Gordon and Holiday and Anderson and Davis.

Frankly that is ridiculous, the Pelicans are probably the most likely bottom team from last year to make a playoff push.

The Pelicans got a lot of raw talent, Davis should make a huge leap, Rivers and Aminu can be expected to take a step as well. Gordon and Holiday is one of the top 10 backcourts in the league.

They won't miss Lopez at all because Davis will play center and Anderson at the 5.

The Pelicans have shooters and isolation talent.

There is no way that the Pelicans are down at our level, we are clearly the huge favorite to be the worst in the West again by a big margin. Maybe Utah has a chance or the Kings.

I'd say for worst in the West.

69% Suns
20% Jazz
10% Kings
1% other team

for worst in the league only Philly looks comparable to us.

 

[slinslin]

As to teams worse, I haven't firmed up numbers yet but it will be the usual suspects. Sacramento, New Orleans, Minnesota, Portland. Minnesota will find some way to lose. They always do. Even with Rubio. Sad.

That is ridiculous.

Minnesota has been a fringe playoff team when Rubio was healthy.

New Orleans and Portland are clearly better than us, by far.

Their are no usual suspects here, we were the worst last year, we added no talent to win immediately at all, we have a rookie coach, we need to play rookies, our agenda is to develop young talent and the future.

We will get rid off Gortat eventually.

We currently have nobody on the roster that can shoot the ball. We have maybe 2 players that are now fringe starters in the league in Dragic and Gortat.

 

[Errntknght]

And now they have Tyreke and Gordon and Holiday and Anderson and Davis.
Frankly that is ridiculous, the Pelicans are probably the most likely bottom team from last year to make a playoff push.
The Pelicans got a lot of raw talent, Davis should make a huge leap, Rivers and Aminu can be expected to take a step as well. Gordon and Holiday is one of the top 10 backcourts in the league.

They won't miss Lopez at all because Davis will play center and Anderson at the 5.
The Pelicans have shooters and isolation talent.

If you posit enough improvement and increased health, the Pels might be in the playoff race but based on what the players did last year they were statistically somewhat better with Vasquez and Lopez than with Holiday and Tyreke (plus Stiemsma and Morrow) replacing them.

Another team that we are overlooking is the Lakers - with Nash, Kobe and Gasol you'd think they couldn't be too bad but if any of them have injury problems, which seems likely, they could be right down there with us. For one thing they are going to be bad defensively. With D'Antoni coaching them they could be really bad.

 

[JustWinBaby]

And now they have Tyreke and Gordon and Holiday and Anderson and Davis.

Frankly that is ridiculous, the Pelicans are probably the most likely bottom team from last year to make a playoff push.

The Pelicans got a lot of raw talent, Davis should make a huge leap, Rivers and Aminu can be expected to take a step as well. Gordon and Holiday is one of the top 10 backcourts in the league.

They won't miss Lopez at all because Davis will play center and Anderson at the 5.

The Pelicans have shooters and isolation talent.

There is no way that the Pelicans are down at our level, we are clearly the huge favorite to be the worst in the West again by a big margin. Maybe Utah has a chance or the Kings.

I'd say for worst in the West.

69% Suns
20% Jazz
10% Kings
1% other team

for worst in the league only Philly looks comparable to us.

I think the worst team in the league will be the Lakers.

When will Kobe come back, if at all?
Gasol hates everyone not named Kobe and he is their best player?
When does Nash go down due to injury?

The Lakers have a REAL chance to be the worst team in the league, IMO. Other than their Big Three we probably have more talent on our roster than they do.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think the worst team in the league will be the Lakers.

When will Kobe come back, if at all?
Gasol hates everyone not named Kobe and he is their best player?
When does Nash go down due to injury?

The Lakers have a REAL chance to be the worst team in the league, IMO. Other than their Big Three we probably have more talent on our roster than they do.

if Nash and Gasol are healthy enough to start the season (and from all reports in LA, they are), they have enough shooters around them and hometown whistles to play at anwyhere from .400 to .500 ball. Kobe probably comes back in December and they probably stay right on track at .400 to .500. there's no way they'll be bad enough to be the worst team in the league, IMO.

 

[Phrazbit]

Yeah, I dont think the Lakers are in the discussion. A full year with Mike to implement his gimmick offense is more likey to result in some regular season over achievement than the other way around.

I'd peg the Lakers for at minimum 35 wins.

Suns, Sixers, Magic, Jazz. Those are your prime contenders for the coveted spot at the bottom of the turd bowl. Anyone outside those 4 I think is a serious long shot.

 

[leclerc]

I wouldn't pay Bledsoe now before he's proved anything. Let him earn it. That should motivate him even more.

 

[leclerc]

Lakers might very well get #1 and Wiggins. Wouldn't that be some luck?

 

[AzStevenCal]

I wouldn't pay Bledsoe now before he's proved anything. Let him earn it. That should motivate him even more.

That's pretty much what we did with Joe Johnson. He had shown flashes of stardom. Sarver and company wanted to see him do it for a full season and we all know how that worked out. I am so thrilled we did not have Joe at the price Atlanta paid but his asking price initially would have made him a steal. If you make them prove they are a star, more often than not you'll have to overpay from that level. Right now, we could overpay him and still have it be a lot less than he's going to demand if he becomes the player some project him to be.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

I wouldn't pay Bledsoe now before he's proved anything. Let him earn it. That should motivate him even more.

That's pretty much what we did with Joe Johnson. He had shown flashes of stardom Sarver and company wanted to see him do it for a full season and we all know how that worked out. I am so thrilled we did not have Joe at the price Atlanta paid but his asking price initially would have made him a steal. If you make them prove they are a star, more often than not you'll have to overpay from that level. Right now, we could overpay him and still have it be a lot less than he's going to demand if he becomes the player some project him to be. It's a risk either way.

Steve

 

[Griffin]

That's pretty much what we did with Joe Johnson. He had shown flashes of stardom Sarver and company wanted to see him do it for a full season and we all know how that worked out. I am so thrilled we did not have Joe at the price Atlanta paid but his asking price initially would have made him a steal. If you make them prove they are a star, more often than not you'll have to overpay from that level. Right now, we could overpay him and still have it be a lot less than he's going to demand if he becomes the player some project him to be. It's a risk either way.

But there is one key difference. JJ was a much better player already when it was time to extend him. He averaged 16.7/4.7/4.4 as a regular starter in his third season. That's more than just flashes, that was his breakout season. With Bledsoe, he has been coming off the bench for three seasons and hasn't had a breakout season yet. There is a lot more uncertainly involved here, and much greater risk.

 

[elindholm]

Comparing Bledsoe to Joe Johnson? I thought I'd heard everything, but I guess not. "Just wow," as they say.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Comparing Bledsoe to Joe Johnson? I thought I'd heard everything, but I guess not. "Just wow," as they say.

Really? After all the crap that flows through here my pointing out a similarity between two situations is the one thing that goes over the top? I didn't equate them. In actuality, I didn't even compare them. I merely compared the circumstances.

Steve

 

[AzStevenCal]

But there is one key difference. JJ was a much better player already when it was time to extend him. He averaged 16.7/4.7/4.4 as a regular starter in his third season. That's more than just flashes, that was his breakout season. With Bledsoe, he has been coming off the bench for three seasons and hasn't had a breakout season yet. There is a lot more uncertainly involved here, and much greater risk.

Oh there's a lot of differences between the two players but one thing is the same, we're probably going to have to make a decision before we're ready to. And that decision might come back to haunt us as it did with Joe Johnson.

Steve

 

[Errntknght]

If anything Bledsoe has shown that he is not cut out to be a big time scorer or the guy that makes a halfcourt game click for a team - in the mold of a Rose, Westbrook or Irving. He might believe he can do it - more likely, his agent tells him he can - and he needs a year for the truth to settle in. I love what he does bring but he expends energy at an enormous rate and I don't believe he play like that 35 minutes a game night after night.

 

[Griffin]

we're probably going to have to make a decision before we're ready to

True, but I think the reason for not being ready to commit money to each player is also different. I don't think the Suns hesitated on re-signing JJ early because they didn't think he was worth the money or that he wasn't an all-star level talent. I think they hesitated mainly because they thought that they could still win as many games, or close to as many, with one fewer big contract on payroll, even if the prospect for a title would be significantly impaired by breaking up the core. It was all about trimming payroll to avoid future LT.

With Bledsoe, that doesn't factor in because the Suns don't have any really large contracts, aren't in danger of getting anywhere near LT, and Bledsoe's price will be significantly less than JJ's was. So in this case the decision should be based purely on what the team thinks he is actually worth, which is where the uncertainty lies because he's accomplished so little thus far in his career.