The Inflation Thread.

dscher

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Ok - so no political action will ever made a difference on the global economy? Fascinating position.

Try to see anything on it's own, outside of the both sides paradigm.
Agreed. I'll do that. While you examine your own biases behind your affiliations.

Just remember. You can inflate your way into disinflation/deflation. That, is NOT healthy.

But, I wouldn't expect the average person to understand that while increasing spending (IRA) you actually are just blowing things up to dangerous levels until inflation comes down... Which is what we're seeing. Hence, disinflation.

*The more you know...*
 

ASUCHRIS

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But, I wouldn't expect the average person to understand that while increasing spending (IRA) you actually are just blowing things up to dangerous levels until inflation comes down... Which is what we're seeing.
Blowing what things up to dangerous levels until inflation comes down?
 

Devilmaycare

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Or just accept the reality that inflation is under control, and give credit to the admin in charge.

Just kidding - I know you'd never do that!
It's not completely under control though as seen from the fed meeting today. They're still very concerned over it and talking about more tightening and rate increases. What's been done so far has tamed it but it's not under control.
 

Dback Jon

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It's not completely under control though as seen from the fed meeting today. They're still very concerned over it and talking about more tightening and rate increases. What's been done so far has tamed it but it's not under control.
It seems that a major factor in inflation now is the rate hikes themselves...
 
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Pretty quiet around here these days about inflation. I wonder why that is...

Put the DNC flag down. Consumer and worker sentiment does not match the admin's narrative. Inflation that was mainly caused by the Fed's actions during Covid and has now been tamed due to the Fed's aggressive tightening. We are extremely fortunate thus far that we haven't plunged into a recession, but I don't think we are out of the woods quite yet. If we see a recession in 2024 will the current admin get the blame?
 

ASUCHRIS

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Consumer and worker sentiment does not match the admin's narrative.
Sentiment? Inflation was high, now it's lower. People are still mad - maybe it's because they're told ad nauseum that even though there are many very positive economic indicators, actually everything is bad. Sentiment is definitely not always a reflection of reality, as in this particular case.
We are extremely fortunate thus far that we haven't plunged into a recession
Based on what? The popular media narrative?
If we see a recession in 2024 will the current admin get the blame?
Lol, of course they will!
 

Dback Jon

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Sentiment? Inflation was high, now it's lower. People are still mad - maybe it's because they're told ad nauseum that even though there are many very positive economic indicators, actually everything is bad. Sentiment is definitely not always a reflection of reality, as in this particular case.

Based on what? The popular media narrative?

Lol, of course they will!
I thought we were supposed to be in a recession by now - a depression even.
 

Mainstreet

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There needs to be some pain to bring inflation under control. IMO, inflation is a worse problem than trending towards a recession.

Just look at housing prices.
 
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Based on what? The popular media narrative?
Based on the Fed pumping trillions of dollars into the economy for much longer than was needed and then having to stomp on the brakes by jacking up interest rates. It's a miracle things didn't break more than they did. Recall the Fed had to step in and back stop a few banks and provide a fund for others.

Lol, of course they will!

Will you is the question?
 
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There needs to be some pain to bring inflation under control. IMO, inflation is a worse problem than trending towards a recession.

Just look at housing prices.

And the housing bubble has not deflated. The problem is worse now as interest rates are over 7%. Higher interest rates and higher prices makes homes even more unaffordable. People are stuck in their current homes or stuck out of the market paying high rents.
 

Dback Jon

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And the housing bubble has not deflated. The problem is worse now as interest rates are over 7%. Higher interest rates and higher prices makes homes even more unaffordable. People are stuck in their current homes or stuck out of the market paying high rents.
At least in Phoenix, housing prices are inflated by corporate investors scooping up all available properties
 

Mainstreet

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And the housing bubble has not deflated. The problem is worse now as interest rates are over 7%. Higher interest rates and higher prices makes homes even more unaffordable. People are stuck in their current homes or stuck out of the market paying high rents.

Like I said, there is going to be some pain. I bought a home when interest rates were 7.5%. People need to live within their means. It's going to be even worse if there is runaway inflation.
 

dscher

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I thought we were supposed to be in a recession by now - a depression even.
Coming...and if we sniff the territory of what's happening in China right now. It's deflation. I've been warning about 90s Japan for awhile now... It's not a doomer perspective. Just eerie similarities of their economic demise to ours towards the end cycle of a consumer based economy. Strong dollar relative to almost every other currency is the tell. Especially against the once known safe haven yen.
 
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At least in Phoenix, housing prices are inflated by corporate investors scooping up all available properties

A lot of them like OpenDoor and Zillow got burned too. AirBnB owners are learning now too. It takes time. As an investor, you have to play the game and worry about what you can control and be patient.
 

dscher

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A lot of them like OpenDoor and Zillow got burned too. AirBnB owners are learning now too. It takes time. As an investor, you have to play the game and worry about what you can control and be patient.
The Airbnb bubble is going to be quite the debacle when it's pops IMO.
 

puckhead

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Admins that tie themselves to the economy are just asking for trouble, IMO.

The global economy is a very peculiar beast and we've seen so many wacky decisions and policies that I'm not sure it's even knowable at this point. That said, I'm as far away from an expert as one can be.
 

ASUCHRIS

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More on "consumer sentiment" or feels:

The information environment we live in is not conducive to fostering great vibes about, well, anything, but especially about the economy. For more than a year, a drumbeat of headlines have warned that a recession is imminent. And consumers are inundated with information—not always accurate—on social media. Nearly half of Americans said earlier this summer that they thought the country was in a recession or would be in one soon. Nearly half! “The discourse around the economy is very different than it was 40-plus years ago,” Hsu told me. “The share of people saying they’d heard bad news about inflation was much higher over the last year than it was in the ’70s and ’80s,” when inflation was higher. Though the news environment is not necessarily the cause of recent negative feelings about the economy, she said, it likely reinforces them.

Some good reading on the topic - https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/08/us-economy-consumers-inflation/675033/
 

Russ Smith

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Few months old now but the data continues to support this too. This article lists just one anecdotal example of a business owner who was afraid to raise prices but eventually had to and discovered he should have done it earlier because while the customers didn't like it, they didn't stop buying his product. It goes back to a couple of things, people have gotten used to higher prices, and my concern that people are just putting stuff on credit.



Customers have become trained to tolerate price hikes, said John Zhang, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

“As a consumer during inflation, you know the costs for companies are increasing, so, therefore, you become more receptive to a higher price,” he said.

Approval of price increases could fuel even higher pricing in the future — a cycle that can be hard to break, said Zhang.

Mr. Mac’s mac and cheese restaurant in Manchester, New Hampshire tried boosting prices a little at a time to keep up with inflation in 2021, but it wasn’t enough to cover the cost increases to the business, vice president of operations Mark Murphy told CNN. Fearing customer backlash, the restaurant accepted smaller margins instead of pricing out their diners.

When the business finally hiked prices, Murphy said the decision was “painful.”

“We were looking at our sales and our orders daily, and we were checking every review to see what people were saying,” Murphy said. “It was very scary.”

Despite those fears, Mr. Mac’s elevated prices did not cut into business.

“What we ended up finding was customers may not have been happy about it, but they were not surprised. I think they kind of understood that prices are increasing. They see it everywhere they go,” he said.

Murphy said the restaurant has since raised prices more than once to keep up with inflation.
 

dscher

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We'll soon find out really soon who has been swimming naked when the tide dissipates and stagflation/deflation hit.. gonna be a wild ride.
 

elindholm

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Restaurants in my area (Inland Empire, eastern edge of Los Angeles county) have gotten way more expensive over the last few years. First it was covid, and they took advantage of customers' good will to keep them in business, plus do anything to escape the isolation grind. (For a while it was all takeout, then some had outdoor seating.) Now it's inflation combined with increases to the minimum wage. Places that only recently were $20-25 per person are $40+, and a place we used to go for special occasions that was $40-50 is now $80+. I like the idea of doing my part to support the local economy, but you have to draw the line somewhere.
 

Russ Smith

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Restaurants in my area (Inland Empire, eastern edge of Los Angeles county) have gotten way more expensive over the last few years. First it was covid, and they took advantage of customers' good will to keep them in business, plus do anything to escape the isolation grind. (For a while it was all takeout, then some had outdoor seating.) Now it's inflation combined with increases to the minimum wage. Places that only recently were $20-25 per person are $40+, and a place we used to go for special occasions that was $40-50 is now $80+. I like the idea of doing my part to support the local economy, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

We spent 50 bucks with tip for Vietnamese food on Saturday night. Same place pre Covid would have been maybe 35 bucks. Same thing for awhile we were just happy they were still in business so we were happy to pay more but seems at this point it's gouging. there were 3 employees in the place when we were there, and maybe 5-6 customers and he was telling one of the customers things had been a bit slow of late. So I do feel bad for their business, but I also wonder if business is slow in part because for example Shaken Beef was 13.99 pre Covid and is 19.99 now.
 

Devilmaycare

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We spent 50 bucks with tip for Vietnamese food on Saturday night. Same place pre Covid would have been maybe 35 bucks. Same thing for awhile we were just happy they were still in business so we were happy to pay more but seems at this point it's gouging. there were 3 employees in the place when we were there, and maybe 5-6 customers and he was telling one of the customers things had been a bit slow of late. So I do feel bad for their business, but I also wonder if business is slow in part because for example Shaken Beef was 13.99 pre Covid and is 19.99 now.
Sounds like the Chinese restaurant that I normally go to. Over the last two years the dishes went from ~$15 each to ~$20 each. A 33% increase is huge. At first I was giving the benefit of the doubt that ingredients went up but I think they blew past that.

In addition to the price raise, the containers are coming less full now too. Labor day I orders and the Pepper Steak was only about 70-80% as full as it used to be. I used to always have enough left overs for lunch the next day but not this time.

It's caused me to order a lot less. We're at the point now where I have to want to get it over casually getting it instead of cooking at home. .
 

Dback Jon

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Restaurants are going to find out soon that eating out is one of the first things to go when money gets tight.

Also noticed that most bakeries that raised their prices when eggs were expensive didn't drop their prices now that eggs are plentiful and the price is lower than it has been in years.
 

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