The Market 2021

[elindholm]

ah, I had it backward. short term gains = taxed like income. over 12 month gains, taxed at 0,15,20. so ill pay somewhere around 20% on my short terms vs 0-20% but still. With Doge, you sold or didnt make money. With gamestop you sold or didnt make money, etc. I have plenty very long term holdings too but those are netting a very small percentage of gains vs the short term ones lately.

but yeah....20% of my gains isnt a huge deal. For every 10k I still keep 8.

With the kind of money you're talking about, your federal tax bracket is probably higher than 20%. Single filers are 22% at $40k, 24% at $85k. Married filing jointly is double those thresholds.

And only the very wealthy pay 20% on long-term gains. For everyone else it's 15% (or zero for low earners).

So you're most likely looking at either a 7% (22-15) or 9% (24-15) difference between a short-term sale and a long-term one. For a $10k profit, that's a difference of either $700 or $900 in your tax bill. And if your income is another factor of two higher than that, you're in the 32% bracket, and then it's a really big difference.

I get stuck on that dilemma too: Take the profit now and eat the big tax bill, or wait for a tax discount on a profit that may no longer be there for the taking. But one way to think of it is that your long-term profit can be less and you'll still come out ahead. You can sell today for $10k profit and keep $8000, or you can sell several months later for $9600 profit and keep $8160. That doesn't take into account state taxes, which may provide another advantage for waiting. (They don't in California, because long-term gains are taxed like income along with everything else.)

This information doesn't show up in dscher's astrological charts, but one might argue that it's even more important.

 

[BigRedRage]

With the kind of money you're talking about, your federal tax bracket is probably higher than 20%. Single filers are 22% at $40k, 24% at $85k. Married filing jointly is double those thresholds.

And only the very wealthy pay 20% on long-term gains. For everyone else it's 15% (or zero for low earners).

So you're most likely looking at either a 7% (22-15) or 9% (24-15) difference between a short-term sale and a long-term one. For a $10k profit, that's a difference of either $700 or $900 in your tax bill. And if your income is another factor of two higher than that, you're in the 32% bracket, and then it's a really big difference.

I get stuck on that dilemma too: Take the profit now and eat the big tax bill, or wait for a tax discount on a profit that may no longer be there for the taking. But one way to think of it is that your long-term profit can be less and you'll still come out ahead. You can sell today for $10k profit and keep $8000, or you can sell several months later for $9600 profit and keep $8160. That doesn't take into account state taxes, which may provide another advantage for waiting. (They don't in California, because long-term gains are taxed like income along with everything else.)

This information doesn't show up in dscher's astrological charts, but one might argue that it's even more important.

My current highest tax bracket is 22-24% depending on how good of a year I have. Capital gains tax (long term is 0 unless I made over 80k. Otherwise, 15% would be the max, no way I get past that bucket with my trading. So yeah, your math of 7-9% is pretty much it. but 7%-9% doesnt matter to me, especially when if I wait to sell, I could very well have less money to be taxed anyway. Again, most of my stuff and probably most of your stuff doesnt make a ton of sense to trade and makes more sense to invest. So, if we are only talking about trades we did ONLY because we thought it made a quick buck, just trade it man. Gains are gains.

I'm only in to beat 2-5% inflation stats. If I crush those and pay some taxes, its all good. As long as the pile is growing, thats the most important part. I would say if you are at 11 months, this matters but if one month into a stock you have a nice 20% return and think it will go flat or down, its an easy choice to take the money and pay the taxes IMO.

I'm glad you brought it up though. We need to be thinking about everything all the time. as I think about it, it would be epic for me to cash in over 80k in a year. I'm not that close yet but would be cool if I pull it off. at 70k I could be paying 0 taxes or 14k and that is a big change but again, the stuff I sold this year like doge and gamestop, I will profit more on selling the squeeze than I would have on waiting to not pay taxes.

 

[dscher]

If you are a decently savvy trader or investor, imo, you don't worry about taxes. Most novice traders will get eaten up by fearing the tax man and that's a recipe for disaster long term. It's one of the many reasons the retail guy gets stuck holding the bag at tops. Taking profits is difficult...and that's why the good old adage of 'you never go broke taking a profit' rings true. The successful traders/investors don't give a poop about it from what I've seen. They run their business as a business. Imo, it's the investors that believe the market just goes up and down with complete randomness... So it's a rational fear in that case.

 

[elindholm]

Again, most of my stuff and probably most of your stuff doesnt make a ton of sense to trade and makes more sense to invest.

Ah, we think about it differently. I'm always re-assessing whether individual investments are worth keeping. A great example is Viacom/CBS. I bought it in the 30s and it soared to 100. I sold a little at 75, before it kept climbing, and I would have sold more if not for the short-term gain tax. But the point is, when I bought it originally, I expected it to be a long-term hold. It was only when the price spiked that I changed my strategy.

Something that's a great value at 25 may not be a great value at 40. So if you buy it at 25 and it rises to 40, one reason to sell is to realize the profit, but the other reason is to re-route the funds into a better investment. Things don't move up and down in synchrony. When one holding has taken you as far as it's likely to go for a while, it's time to let a different one do the heavy lifting. There are always deals out there.

Charts are great at fooling you into thinking that past performance means anything. You always have to be looking ahead, not backward. If Tesla went up by a factor of 20 last year, or whatever it was, congratulations to those people that held it, but unfortunately I was not one of them. Now the price is what it is, and unless I think it has another huge surge in it, which I don't, there's no reason to hold it.

 

[BigRedRage]

So...guys....make sure you keep an eye on your open orders. I just had an limit order purchase clear that I had no idea I had and need to put money into my investment account.....

 

[BigRedRage]

Ah, we think about it differently. I'm always re-assessing whether individual investments are worth keeping. A great example is Viacom/CBS. I bought it in the 30s and it soared to 100. I sold a little at 75, before it kept climbing, and I would have sold more if not for the short-term gain tax. But the point is, when I bought it originally, I expected it to be a long-term hold. It was only when the price spiked that I changed my strategy.

Something that's a great value at 25 may not be a great value at 40. So if you buy it at 25 and it rises to 40, one reason to sell is to realize the profit, but the other reason is to re-route the funds into a better investment. Things don't move up and down in synchrony. When one holding has taken you as far as it's likely to go for a while, it's time to let a different one do the heavy lifting. There are always deals out there.

Charts are great at fooling you into thinking that past performance means anything. You always have to be looking ahead, not backward. If Tesla went up by a factor of 20 last year, or whatever it was, congratulations to those people that held it, but unfortunately I was not one of them. Now the price is what it is, and unless I think it has another huge surge in it, which I don't, there's no reason to hold it.

I definately do the same with certain stocks. When BA was around 260/270, I saw that as max growth for some time and time to take profits and move them elsewhere. It paid off well as it dropped to 220 later one and buying back in at 220 isnt worth it to me if I think it will pause at 260 again anyway so the money went elsewhere.

Speaking of tsla...that accidental limit purchase I just posted about...yeah lol

 

[BigRedRage]

Dropped AMC at 13.82. what a thrill.

 

[dscher]

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On everyone's favorite show....

 

[Finito]

Dropped AMC at 13.82. what a thrill.

so I’m just curious what do make day trading? Do you do it full time?

That AMC move yesterday get you a couple hundred? Couple thousand?

 

[Finito]

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On everyone's favorite show....

doesn’t mean a damn thing to me.

oh the middle class and poor are going to end up on the wrong end of the stuff going on in Washington....shocking. Welcome to the last 50 years. Republican or Democrat it’s the same song and dance.

Tucker: omg inflation is going to kill the middle class

viewer: we can make these big corporations pay more taxes and raise employees pay so they can actually make a decent living

Tucker: Na

 

[Russ Smith]

Bad week for me had a stock I've been holding hoping to get some of my losses back. After 2 great days I decided to wait one more before selling and now its' back down.

And I was going to buy Snowflake(SNOW) as it actually went below the IPO price briefly this week. So of course Motley Fool did a big writeup on stocks that you should snap up now, SNOW was one of them, and it's up almost 5% this morning and I didn't buy it.

Still might buy some it's under 200 now the all time high is over 400 and their earnings have been terrific since the IPO. they're still way overvalued in the traditional sense but it's very much a growth stock.

 

[BigRedRage]

so I’m just curious what do make day trading? Do you do it full time?

That AMC move yesterday get you a couple hundred? Couple thousand?

I don't think I've ever done a single day trade, I bought into amc back at $8 ish in early 2021 and bought a call options a month or so ago with a $10.81 breakeven. Amc had hit 14 and dropped before so as soon as we were hitting 14 again I didn't want to miss that boat a second time. If it comes down in the 9s again I'll pick it up again. Hopefully for you a moass comes though.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

 

[Finito]

I don't think I've ever done a single day trade, I bought into amc back at $8 ish in early 2021 and bought a call options a month or so ago with a $10.81 breakeven. Amc had hit 14 and dropped before so as soon as we were hitting 14 again I didn't want to miss that boat a second time. If it comes down in the 9s again I'll pick it up again. Hopefully for you a moass comes though.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Oh ok I though you day traded. My boy is talking my ear off about it.

 

[BigRedRage]

my entire watchlist is green this morning. Weird to see. Its usually primarily red!

 

[BigRedRage]

AMC stock holding still in the 13-14 range this time vs the last time when it went down to $9. Hopefully it keeps spiking for you @Finito

 

[Devilmaycare]

AMC stock holding still in the 13-14 range this time vs the last time when it went down to $9. Hopefully it keeps spiking for you @Finito

AMC needs one more big push so that I can get rid of these bags that I've been holding.

 

[Folster]

Big Market news with AT&T and Discovery merger. It seems AT&T will spin off Warner Media and form a new company with Discovery. AT&T will remain with a business more aligned to the Verizon strategy while Warner/Discovery would rival Netflix and Disney, cementing itself as a top 3 media company.

I think this is a smart move and like it a lot. I currently have a position in T.

 

[Finito]

AMC stock holding still in the 13-14 range this time vs the last time when it went down to $9. Hopefully it keeps spiking for you @Finito

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Up, Down, Sideways I’m only in this for 1 reason and 1 reason only. I’m selling at 100k.

I will say this I don’t think I’ve ever talked to my little brother more than this last year with the Suns and this

 

[BigRedRage]

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Up, Down, Sideways I’m only in this for 1 reason and 1 reason only. I’m selling at 100k.

I will say this I don’t think I’ve ever talked to my little brother more than this last year with the Suns and this

100k total cash out?

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[Folster]

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530 million bet against Tesla

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/mic...-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html

 

[elindholm]

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Up, Down, Sideways I’m only in this for 1 reason and 1 reason only. I’m selling at 100k.

I assume you've figured out what price target you need to hit for your 1001 shares to be worth 100k. Uh, good luck?

 

[Finito]

100k total cash out?

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100k per share

100 million cash out

 

[BigRedRage]

100k per share

100 million cash out

lol

so you will never sell

I'd revisit the strategy tbh

 

[BigRedRage]

I assume you've figured out what price target you need to hit for your 1001 shares to be worth 100k. Uh, good luck?

A squeeze putting it to $100 a share at some point is possible and not out of the realm, even though it is dreaming for sure.

However, the 100 million thing....yeah....

 

[Finito]

lol

so you will never sell

I'd revisit the strategy tbh

No risk it no biscuit.