The Market 2021

[dscher]

I don't seem to recall you saying that before the dip.

I had this opinion a few weeks ago.. Didn't necessarily share it fully here on the board. I've had TSLA and Btc on the same trajectory for awhile now. I had a feeling one would follow the other. The past few weeks have shown more on the nature of the move on my hocus pocus charts.

 

[dscher]

That is worth noting. I don't recall any warnings from the TA crowd. Plenty from the FA crowd, but they've also been eating crow for a couple years with TSLA's meteoric rise.

It's funny how much heat some on this thread give Sven (Northman trader). But, he has been tracking it for some time now and put in potential warning signs at the top with indicator divergences that were occuring on daily and weekly charts.

 

[elindholm]

It's funny how much heat some on this thread give Sven (Northman trader). But, he has been tracking it for some time now and put in potential warning signs at the top with indicator divergences that were occuring on daily and weekly charts.

Oh for god's sake. There are always potential warning signs and "indicator divergences." You just don't get it. Saying "anything can happen" is of course true, but it's unactionable advice and worthless.

Now you're saying you saw this coming, but decided to withhold the information. Fine. What did you do about it? Sell high, buy short options, what? Anything?

No matter what happens, you say, "I thought this might happen." And you think it's insight. It's inexplicable delusion.

 

[Folster]

Oh for god's sake. There are always potential warning signs and "indicator divergences." You just don't get it. Saying "anything can happen" is of course true, but it's unactionable advice and worthless.

Now you're saying you saw this coming, but decided to withhold the information. Fine. What did you do about it? Sell high, buy short options, what? Anything?

No matter what happens, you say, "I thought this might happen." And you think it's insight. It's inexplicable delusion.

How did you quote me but use @dscher's words?

 

[dscher]

You just don't get it.

I get it. You'll never give TA the time of day...and that's fine. You can either dismiss everything in life or just accept that it all just plays a part in some capacity. I choose the latter. It's all good.

 

[BigRedRage]

But the credits are for the manufacturers and dealers, not the customers. The price gets adjusted to take advantage of the credit; any "savings" to the customer is an illusion. Tesla doesn't need the incentive because they're already all-in for electric and have plenty of sales. The credit is exactly to give the laggards like Ford a boost toward catching up.

I don't think Teslas are going up 7k in price

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[BigRedRage]

Glad ford threw out a new f-150 to go with the Biden praise.

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[Folster]

Glad ford threw out a new f-150 to go with the Biden praise.

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I'll take it. I've held Ford for a few years and am finally seeing the benefits. Electrifying the best selling vehicle in the US and hitting a relative affordable price in comparison to Tesla Cyber Truck and GMs Hummer is huge.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'll take it. I've held Ford for a few years and am finally seeing the benefits. Electrifying the best selling vehicle in the US and hitting a relative affordable price in comparison to Tesla Cyber Truck and GMs Hummer is huge.

Yeah, the hummer is incredibly overpriced. I think the f150 will mostly cannabilize it's gas f150 but market relevance is important. I looked at Ford stock before the Biden conference but based on it's 5 year, I didn't think their potential for growth was very big. it's safe and should grow more than inflation though

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[Devilmaycare]

I'll take it. I've held Ford for a few years and am finally seeing the benefits. Electrifying the best selling vehicle in the US and hitting a relative affordable price in comparison to Tesla Cyber Truck and GMs Hummer is huge.

It's only got a 230 mile range though. That number's probably a best case scenario too. What's the actual range when it's under load for some that uses their truck for work? If it doesn't get you through half your work day it's not going to fly. I think the milage of truck is going to be more sensitive than a car. A lot of them aren't driving from home to an office and back with charging stations at the office.

 

[BigRedRage]

It's only got a 230 mile range though. That number's probably a best case scenario too. What's the actual range when it's under load for some that uses their truck for work? If it doesn't get you through half your work day it's not going to fly. I think the milage of truck is going to be more sensitive than a car. A lot of them aren't driving from home to an office and back with charging stations at the office.

If memory serves me, that's the base model?

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[Devilmaycare]

If memory serves me, that's the base model?

That's the $40k base, the $50k extended range only adds 70 miles though by bumping it up to 300. That's still not much considering that's the claim and real world will be lower. Especially if you're using it under load.

 

[Folster]

That's the $40k base, the $50k extended range only adds 70 miles though by bumping it up to 300. That's still not much considering that's the claim and real world will be lower. Especially if you're using it under load.

Isn't that comparable to the Cyber Truck range? You have to go up to the tri-motor which is 70K to get a significant increase in range.

You'll get people who want to peacock to buy the cybertruck, but I doubt it gets traction in the heartland and on job sites. Regardless, I think we are at least 5 years away if not more from blue collar, working class adoption of EVs. Range is going to have to get better especially in the more spread-out western states. Right now most of these non premium EVs won't get you from Phoenix to LA, San Diego, or Vegas.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Isn't that comparable to the Cyber Truck range? You have to go up to the tri-motor which is 70K to get a significant increase in range.

You'll get people who want to peacock to buy the cybertruck, but I doubt it gets traction in the heartland and on job sites. Regardless, I think we are at least 5 years away if not more from blue collar, working class adoption of EVs. Range is going to have to get better especially in the more spread-out western states. Right now most of these non premium EVs won't get you from Phoenix to LA, San Diego, or Vegas.

It's in the range of a cyber truck but you're 2nd paragraph is the difference. I don't think people buying the cyber truck are going to be the truck guys. It's going to be like the 2 developers on my team that want one. They'll be used more like a car with mainly driving into the office or some light duty work on the weekend like running to Home Depot. You're not going to see them on a job site unless it's the boss stopping by.

Ford on the other hand is going to be looked at by their truck guys. When they go into the dealership to get a new truck the Lightning is going to be sitting there along side the rest of the lineup and pushed by salesmen.

 

[Russ Smith]

It's in the range of a cyber truck but you're 2nd paragraph is the difference. I don't think people buying the cyber truck are going to be the truck guys. It's going to be like the 2 developers on my team that want one. They'll be used more like a car with mainly driving into the office or some light duty work on the weekend like running to Home Depot. You're not going to see them on a job site unless it's the boss stopping by.

Ford on the other hand is going to be looked at by their truck guys. When they go into the dealership to get a new truck the Lightning is going to be sitting there along side the rest of the lineup and pushed by salesmen.

The under load part is huge too. I would love to someday have an electric SUV that can tow my boat. But if I go to the delta to go fishing(been way too long) it's in the 125 to 150 miles roundtrip range. I can guarantee you there aren't any launch ramps with charging stations and won't be for quite some time. So you have to be able to do that trip under load. Because the last thing anybody will want is to risk running out of charge while towing a boat.

 

[BigRedRage]

Isn't that comparable to the Cyber Truck range? You have to go up to the tri-motor which is 70K to get a significant increase in range.

You'll get people who want to peacock to buy the cybertruck, but I doubt it gets traction in the heartland and on job sites. Regardless, I think we are at least 5 years away if not more from blue collar, working class adoption of EVs. Range is going to have to get better especially in the more spread-out western states. Right now most of these non premium EVs won't get you from Phoenix to LA, San Diego, or Vegas.

I think also, a lot of people simply admire the Tesla brand vehicles and will jump on the truck because they just wanted a truck instead of a car. I know I fit in that bucket. I don't have much use for a sedan personally. Every time we take my ladies car out beyond the city, I always end up regretting it as we always end up in a spot where we could do so much more if we had my truck.

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[BigRedRage]

The under load part is huge too. I would love to someday have an electric SUV that can tow my boat. But if I go to the delta to go fishing(been way too long) it's in the 125 to 150 miles roundtrip range. I can guarantee you there aren't any launch ramps with charging stations and won't be for quite some time. So you have to be able to do that trip under load. Because the last thing anybody will want is to risk running out of charge while towing a boat.

This is why the tri motor cytruck is the only one I'm interested in. 200 mile range isn't going to cut it and 200 mile is "optimal conditions" like, driving slow and steady, no tow, etc.

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[Devilmaycare]

AMC and GME. I'm in the green with AMC now. Going to start setting some stop losses on it.

 

[dscher]

AMC and GME. I'm in the green with AMC now. Going to start setting some stop losses on it.

Will this be the moment they finally challenge those euphoric highs from March?! Maybe. Good luck! Nice hodl.

 

[BigRedRage]

AMC and GME. I'm in the green with AMC now. Going to start setting some stop losses on it.

I wish I stop losses instead of selling. I'd still be in and up a bunch more.

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[Finito]

AMC and GME. I'm in the green with AMC now. Going to start setting some stop losses on it.

I think it’s going to 50-100 real soon then falling back down to 10-20 this week.

just a feeling

 

[BigRedRage]

Up another 4k on gme if my stop trigger sells. Will make it 19k on the year. Not making same mistake I did on AMC. I'd be up HUGE if I didn't go o my profits and/or trailed it with stops.

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[Finito]

Up another 4k on gme if my stop trigger sells. Will make it 19k on the year. Not making same mistake I did on AMC. I'd be up HUGE if I didn't go o my profits and/or trailed it with stops.

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fun isn’t it

 

[Devilmaycare]

I think it’s going to 50-100 real soon then falling back down to 10-20 this week.

just a feeling

Hopefully you're right! Now that I'm in the green though I did set stops so that I'll at least break even. I'll up it if it gets into the 20s and hopefully 30 and beyond. What ever it does this was a nice run. I was down a little over 60% at one point so to be up 25% on it now is pretty sweet.

 

[Devilmaycare]

AMC has been nuts over the last half hour. Jumped up about $4 all the way to $29.71 and then fell back down into the 25s. Looks like it stabilized at a little over 26 right now. Fun times.