The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

I also like ITM trading on YT. They are a physical gold and silver dealer. Been in biz since the 90s I believe. Lynette is their lead market strategist and she is a little too gold bug for me. But her overall strategy is pretty sound if you are more into the 'metals being real money' boat IMO.

I think a lot of people get caught up in gold as an investment to which I do not ascribe.

It's a tangible store of value that is mostly outside of the fiat system and monetary shenanigans. It can provide some insurance/hedge in incidents of mild to moderate short term economic and monetary unrest, but I think it becomes worthless if things devolve too far.

So there's a window where gold can be useful/beneficial IMO, but I think I would keep any future physical stash limited to a few months worth of income replacement, and I wouldn't hesitate to cash in some if gold has a spike in value.

I've also found ETF exposure to be a simple tool go add to my medium term investments as a stabilizing asset in times of volatility.

 

[Folster]

Boeing is a mess lately too. Recently had a big failure with costs of space equipment to Nasa.

It'd probably have to get close to its pandemic lows before I become interested.

 

[Folster]

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[Folster]

The NASDAQ is about a percent away from official bear market territory currently 19% down from its highs

 

[dscher]

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If you look down towards the bottom of the page you'll see a graph going back a few years.. the COVID crash low was about 5-ish. I'm not sure if we go further or not...but I'd still be looking in that range for capitulation for the amount of panic out there right now. Certain things like Boeing and a few other charts make me believe we are potentially into falling knife/crash territory..

 

[dscher]

The NASDAQ is about a percent away from bear market territory currently 19% down from it's highs

Heard no one really discussing it, but the Dax was down 10 percent last week. Our market has been in lockstep with theirs for awhile now. Easily our most correlated market.

 

[Folster]

If you look down towards the bottom of the page you'll see a graph going back a few years.. the COVID crash low was about 5-ish. I'm not sure if we go further or not...but I'd still be looking in that range for capitulation for the amount of panic out there right now. Certain things like Boeing and a few other charts make me believe we are potentially into falling knife/crash territory..

You were right about FB. I thought 200 was the floor. I got in too early, but that was before the Russia/Ukraine blow-up. I'm only down 15% because I have been averaging down.

I'm shocked bitcoin has not tested 30K and has held up. They've conditioned their faithful well with the HODL and buy the dip mantra. We'll see if it holds up under continued pressure and sideways movement.

 

[dscher]

You were right about FB. I thought 200 was the floor. I got in too early, but that was before the Russia/Ukraine blow-up. I'm only down 15% because I have been averaging down.

I'm shocked bitcoin has not tested 30K and has held up. They've conditioned their faithful well with the HODL and buy the dip mantra. We'll see if it holds up under continued pressure and sideways movement.

I just look for total volume support and resistance.. price always wants to test break up and break down candles. FB and others have significant gaps in buying support which is why it hit that air pocket... IMO at least.

BTC is forming a pattern that I think could bring it past 30k, down to around 20k. But 30k at the very least IMHO.

 

[dscher]

Dollar is going parabolic...

 

[Folster]

Dollar is going parabolic...

with gold continuing its advance. Very odd.

 

[dscher]

with gold continuing its advance. Very odd.

Gold is most definitely, IMO, in a long term uptrend. The charts support that at the very least. But, the inflation narrative is overblown and for the life of me would have no idea why the dollar relative to TIPs would be outperforming like the have since October/November. It screams deflation/stagflation. So, gold will suffer once these margin calls start flooding in...circuit breaker territory. But, after that, gold can survive that environment decently. Silver, not so much.

 

[Folster]

Gold is most definitely, IMO, in a long term uptrend. The charts support that at the very least. But, the inflation narrative is overblown and for the life of me would have no idea why the dollar relative to TIPs would be outperforming like the have since October/November. It screams deflation/stagflation. So, gold will suffer once these margin calls start flooding in...circuit breaker territory. But, after that, gold can survive that environment decently. Silver, not so much.

The gold to silver ratio is well above the "average" which would suggest silver will catch up or gold will fall back. It's been 60:1 over the last 20 years, but around 80:1 now. But things are pretty messy right now so I wouldn't bank on those.

There's been a lot of gold buying by China and Russia over the past few years suggesting they are looking for protection against the dollar and US foreign policy and ultimately would love it if the dollar lost its reserve status, a goal I'm positive both nations are working toward.

 

[dscher]

There's been a lot of gold buying by China and Russia over the past few years suggesting they are looking for protection against the dollar and US foreign policy and ultimately would love it if the dollar lost it's reserve status, a goal I'm positive both nations are working toward.

Yep. IMO, this has been setting up for years..if not decades.

It's creepy how spot on this clip is becoming... I can't stop from thinking it every time I see the things going on around us.

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[Folster]

The realities of the amount of mining needed to support the lofty EV manufacturing goals are becoming apparent to the market and investors and of course Russia is a big supplier of nickel.

 

[Folster]

It looks like Congress is going to pass a bipartisan bill to stop US purchases of Russian energy. I imagine Biden will sign. Oil to 150 and beyond IMO. I wonder how all of the gimmicky ESG funds are fairing.

 

[dscher]

It looks like Congress is going to pass a bipartisan bill to stop US purchases of Russian energy. I imagine Biden will sign. Oil to 150 and beyond IMO. I wonder how all of the gimmicky ESG funds are fairing.

Between the short squeezing and this... I wouldn't be surprised. Like the chart I screen shot, this is normal behavior from the energy sector before recessions. Maybe not so blatant, but still.

 

[Folster]

Between the short squeezing and this... I wouldn't be surprised. Like the chart I screen shot, this is normal behavior from the energy sector before recessions. Maybe not so blatant, but still.

I don't see how we emerge from the pandemic, inflation fears, and deglobalization caused by the Russian invasion/sanctions without a painful recession.

 

[dscher]

I don't see how we emerge from the pandemic, inflation fears, and deglobalization caused by the Russian invasion/sanctions without a painful recession.

If you want a little more info from the technical/sentiment side of of things to go with your fundamental analysis, I use stockcharts and their content now on YouTube. They have a diverse group of opinions. I personally like the Swenlins. They've been with stockcharts for years while I was learning... And always stuck with rules based trading, much like mine. Keeps the emotions out of investing/trading and have a nice longer term outlook then even I do.. just thought you might find it helpful with your background and what not during times like these.

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[dscher]

This kind of risk asset price action without activity from the long bond yet is showing the potential harbinger of things to come IMHO.

 

[Folster]

Take a look a the breakout on XOP.

 

[dscher]

Take a look a the breakout on XOP.

Tail candle on the xop. Usually a sign of exhaustion..but still in it's uptrend. So we'll see. But with volatility where it is, becoming unbound..its basically chaos. Price really starts to disregard support and resistance levels and flies right through them.

 

[Folster]

ARKK is now below the its-pre pandemic price.

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But even with that epic collapse it has still doubled the S&P 500 performance over the last 5 years. Unfortunately, I think most investors still holding or recently sold ARKK bought in the last two years.

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[elindholm]

ARKK is now below the its-pre pandemic price.

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But even with that epic collapse it has still doubled the S&P 500 performance over the last 5 years. Unfortunately, I think most investors still holding or recently sold ARKK bought in the last two years.

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Yeah I bought ARKG a year or so ago, celebrated its rise, then gave up once it fell a bit below my buy point. So I took a loss, but it wasn't that painful, just frustrating compared to the peak.

 

[Devilmaycare]

ARKK is now below the its-pre pandemic price.

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But even with that epic collapse it has still doubled the S&P 500 performance over the last 5 years. Unfortunately, I think most investors still holding or recently sold ARKK bought in the last two years.

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It's beating the S&P over 5 years but how much has that got to do with her riding TSLA's tails? The ETF is at 10% TSLA now and I think it's been higher then that at times. I remember at one point like a year ago there being some news that she was dropping the TSLA % some to be more balanced.

I'd have to crunch the numbers a lot more on when she bought in to TSLA, percents, transactions, etc. but it almost feels like the fund has under performed considering it. TSLA was at about $50 on october 18 2019. I'm pretty sure she was already bought in at that point and the stock has gone 16x since then. If it was 10% of your portfolio and the rest of the portfolio was flat you'd be up around 150%. Looking it, the SPY is up 40.7% since that date and ARKK is only up 38.4%. So for the last 2.5 years she's under performed the S&P with having ~10% of the portfolio be a 16 banger.

That sounds like someone who go lucky with their portfolio matching up nicely with a handful of stocks that got hot when the pandemic hit and rode to a huge bubble before crashing down. I wonder if she might have started reading her own press clippings.

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[Folster]

It's beating the S&P over 5 years but how much has that got to do with her riding TSLA's tails? The ETF is at 10% TSLA now and I think it's been higher then that at times. I remember at one point like a year ago there being some news that she was dropping the TSLA % some to be more balanced.

I'd have to crunch the numbers a lot more on when she bought in to TSLA, percents, transactions, etc. but it almost feels like the fund has under performed considering it. TSLA was at about $50 on october 18 2019. I'm pretty sure she was already bought in at that point and the stock has gone 16x since then. If it was 10% of your portfolio and the rest of the portfolio was flat you'd be up around 150%. Looking it, the SPY is up 40.7% since that date and ARKK is only up 38.4%. So for the last 2.5 years she's under performed the S&P with having ~10% of the portfolio be a 16 banger.

That sounds like someone who go lucky with their portfolio matching up nicely with a handful of stocks that got hot when the pandemic hit and rode to a huge bubble before crashing down. I wonder if she might have started reading her own press clippings.

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Don't confuse me with a fan of ARKK and Wood, but it's only fair to look at her longer term performance when dragging her about her most recent performance.

With that being said, my benchmarking her to the S&P 500 is not a fair comparison for a growth fund. A more apt benchmark would be the NASDAQ 100. Her fund has basically returned the same as QQQ over the last 5 years but the Q's have done it with considerably less volatility.

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