The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

Thanks Guys! I've been thinking about it some more and I think I'm going to stick with the traditional for now and put the $6k in tax savings into my house purchase account for now. Once that's set I'll re-evaluate. Getting my taxes down some would be nice. With my new job I'm now going to be in the 32% bracket. Maxing out my 401k, along with other deductions, will keep me fully in the 24% bracket for what I actually pay.

I actually need to find a new tax advisor. Any referrals? I really liked the guy I had for the last 20 years but he's basically retired a few years back when he got cancer and the guy that bought his practice is a complete tool. Raised rates big time and service went to hell. You could tell he was buying businesses just to milk them.

I use a solo practitioner in Southern California that I've been with since I was out there 10 plus years ago or so (he also took over the business from his mentor, now retired, that I originally started with)... I enjoy the 'keep it small' atmosphere when it comes to tax advisors. If you would like to look into it I can provide his info via PM.

 

[BigRedRage]

The advise I got on roth vs traditional was basically if you think your tax brackets will be higher in retirement, pay the taxes now instead with the roth. Otherwise, go traditional.

 

[Folster]

DOCU is getting crushed in after hours after missing earnings and lowered guidance. If after hours prices hold, they'll be down 75% from their high! The list of crushed pandemic stocks is long and ugly. I like the company and service. We use it at work and it's super convenient, but how do you value these companies with no earnings that were darlings of the market a year ago, but now seems there is no end to their fall.

 

[elindholm]

DOCU is getting crushed in after hours after missing earnings and lowered guidance. If after hours prices hold, they'll be down 75% from their high! The list of crushed pandemic stocks is long and ugly. I like the company and service. We use it at work and it's super convenient, but how do you value these companies with no earnings that were darlings of the market a year ago, but now seems there is no end to their fall.

Yeah, I'm in a similar boat with OPEN, and for some reason just decided to take a stab on U, which has already been a costly error.

 

[elindholm]

AMZN just announced a 20:1 split and $10B share buyback.

Which is 0.7% of their market capitalization. I think share buybacks are a scam.

 

[Folster]

Which is 0.7% of their market capitalization. I think share buybacks are a scam.

I agree unless the company is committed and aggressive with the buybacks. Apple has bought back around $500B since they started their buyback program. And it sure beats the flipside of being diluted.

 

[dscher]

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[Devilmaycare]

Ouch, anyone have a pile of Nickel laying around?

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Folster]

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This was an interesting macro look at the rise and fall of empires. However, I'm not sure it's terribly helpful when it comes to investing in one's lifetime. These empire cycles may ring true but they contain an infinite number of variables and the timing can vary by decades if not centuries.

I'm also drawn to contrarian thinkers like Dalio, Schiff, and others, but I've been paying attention long enough to know that a lot of these guys predict bear markets every few years and are usually wrong. The hits are always trumpeted and misses forgotten.

 

[dscher]

This was an interesting macro look at the rise and fall of empires. However, I'm not sure it's terribly helpful when it comes to investing in one's lifetime. These empire cycles may ring true but they contain an infinite number of variables and the timing can vary by decades if not centuries.

I'm also drawn to contrarian thinkers like Dalio, Schiff, and others, but I've been paying attention long enough to know that a lot of these guys predict bear markets every few years and are usually wrong. The hits are always trumpeted and misses forgotten.

You never know of course, until you know. But I just found it interesting for a market guy to put it into terms of how another market guy like Neil Howe did about his book 'The fourth turning' from the 90s.

 

[BigRedRage]

Crazy watching all the promising EV startups get crushed right now. I'm not a huge believer in LCID and RIVN or I would be calling this major dip to buy. Supply constraints are ravaging those companies. Their deliveries vs estimates have been putrid.

I might still buy a small dip of each though. its so low right now.

 

[Folster]

Crazy watching all the promising EV startups get crushed right now. I'm not a huge believer in LCID and RIVN or I would be calling this major dip to buy. Supply constraints are ravaging those companies. Their deliveries vs estimates have been putrid.

I might still buy a small dip of each though. its so low right now.

Cash flow will be a problem for them in a tighter monetary environment. Legacy automakers that have cash flow from their ICE businesses will be able to fund their EV investments.

 

[BigRedRage]

Its

Cash flow will be a problem for them in a tighter monetary environment. Legacy automakers that have cash flow from their ICE businesses will be able to fund their EV investments.

Def giving them a chance to get ahead of the tiny newcomers.

With giga Berlin and Austin opening this month for TSLA, things about to go bonkers

 

[Devilmaycare]

Crazy watching all the promising EV startups get crushed right now. I'm not a huge believer in LCID and RIVN or I would be calling this major dip to buy. Supply constraints are ravaging those companies. Their deliveries vs estimates have been putrid.

I might still buy a small dip of each though. its so low right now.

I'm still a believer in LCID. Their cars look great. This has been brutal though. Luckily I'm still up about 25% though since I bought in so early in the CCIV days. I'm still looking at them as a long play.

Cash flow will be a problem for them in a tighter monetary environment. Legacy automakers that have cash flow from their ICE businesses will be able to fund their EV investments.

I'm hoping this won't be as big of an issue for Lucid since the Saudi PIF is the biggest backer. They've seemed like they're committed to Lucid as a non-oil play for the future. It's why the new plant is being built in Saudi Arabia. So that's part of my hope for the future of the company. If the PIF pulls out then they'd probably be done for.

 

[jf-08]

I'm still a believer in LCID. Their cars look great. This has been brutal though. Luckily I'm still up about 25% though since I bought in so early in the CCIV days. I'm still looking at them as a long play.


I'm hoping this won't be as big of an issue for Lucid since the Saudi PIF is the biggest backer. They've seemed like they're committed to Lucid as a non-oil play for the future. It's why the new plant is being built in Saudi Arabia. So that's part of my hope for the future of the company. If the PIF pulls out then they'd probably be done for.

We are in negotiations in doing some infrastructure work for them at their Casea Grande plant.

 

[dscher]

Decent down day and the VIX not moving.... No signs of capitulation yet. Measured and controlled movement to the downside is usually not ideal.

 

[dscher]

Since I spam this joint anyhow.. I'll keep the stuff rolling on in. lol. Just info for anyone who wants to dig into some other viewpoints out there. I'm the market doom and gloomist, which can get old, but just wanna share anything I think is valuable in times like these. Take em or leave em..

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[dscher]

Short-sellers are scarce and that's some of the best news the stock market's had lately

A solid reason to be bullish about U.S. stocks in the year ahead.

www.marketwatch.com

Uh, not really...

 

[dscher]

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[Folster]

I've been out camping since Friday and missed another down day. Looks like I'll be averaging down again on a few stocks.

I caught a video about Ford's recent announced restructuring and it was pointed out that the move will actually lead to them cutting out dealerships down the road and selling their EVs directly to consumers a la Tesla. This would allow them to increase their profit margin.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I've been out camping since Friday and missed another down day. Looks like I'll be averaging down again on a few stocks.

I caught a video about Ford's recent announced restructuring and it was pointed out that the move will actually lead to them cutting out dealerships down the road and selling their EVs directly to consumers a la Tesla. This would allow them to increase their profit margin.

I wonder how much blowback that's going to cause with the dealerships. They already don't like and have fought TSLA over it. I also wonder if it'll create some logistic issues for them. Right now a bunch of is handled by the dealerships that they're now going to have to build out in each city. That should work itself out over time but they're going to have some growing pains.

 

[Folster]

I wonder how much blowback that's going to cause with the dealerships. They already don't like and have fought TSLA over it. I also wonder if it'll create some logistic issues for them. Right now a bunch of is handled by the dealerships that they're now going to have to build out in each city. That should work itself out over time but they're going to have some growing pains.

I think dealerships could eventually go extinct. The only thing they provide that is useful is test driving and warrantied service/support. The service aspect could easily be replaced with awarding service certifications to auto repair shops which could also be another source of revenue. Test driving facilities could be a much smaller footprint that stocks a few models. I guess dealer lots could still be relevant for used cars, but I'm not sure about the longevity of EVs right now considering the price of battery replacement.

 

[elindholm]

I was wrong about the NASDAQ having a floor. If it has one, we haven't reached it. If things ever recover, I'm going to be reducing my speculative growth holdings even further. It just becomes too obvious that there's no "there" there, and the bottom falls out. I'm not in the mood to keep enduring multi-year setbacks.

 

[BigRedRage]

I've been out camping since Friday and missed another down day. Looks like I'll be averaging down again on a few stocks.

I caught a video about Ford's recent announced restructuring and it was pointed out that the move will actually lead to them cutting out dealerships down the road and selling their EVs directly to consumers a la Tesla. This would allow them to increase their profit margin.

100% it looks like they plan to mimic the Tesla model. It will reduce this BS of Ford dealerships getting a Mach E and marking it up $20,000 too.

 

[BigRedRage]

So, when you buy stocks on say Schwab, I believe you have to fund the purchase within 3 business days, yeah? So If I buy some back on Friday, as long as money gets into schwab by Tuesday, I would be good?

My house closes Friday and I should get my funds in theory, that day. Once I see them, most of the proceeds are going into my exchange accounts and I dont really want to wait until tues/weds of the following week to buy stocks back necessarily as everything I sold is way down from when I sold it anyway.