The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

Another little inexact science/art here. But I found this a couple weeks back while no one was really bringing it up in my TA circles...but this is a daily chart of the Dow Industrials. Saved this chart and just annotated some head and shoulders like formations before posting... You can see we overshot that descending neckline this past week. But if we recapture that neckline to the downside, thats usually seen as a failure and could be extremely bearish.

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[dscher]

BlackRock's Larry Fink, who oversees $10 trillion, says Russia-Ukraine war is ending globalization

Larry Fink, CEO and chairman of the world's biggest asset manager, BlackRock, said Russia's invasion of Ukraine has ended globalization.

www.cnbc.com

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[Dr. Jones]

Something tells me I need to listen to you guys in other forums as well. #NotInP&R

 

[dscher]

Something tells me I need to listen to you guys in other forums as well. #NotInP&R

Honestly. I get a pull to come to the finance forum more than anything. I'd love for more conversation here where we can share opinions about the changing and tumultuous state of our domestic and global markets/economics. But it is what it is. P/R more often than not just sucks me in after the fact...lol.

 

[Folster]

Honestly. I get a pull to come to the finance forum more than anything. I'd love for more conversation here where we can share opinions about the changing and tumultuous state of our domestic and global markets/economics. But it is what it is. P/R more often than not just sucks me in after the fact...lol.

The big difference is that learning, sharing and even debating about investing and finance can actually make a positive difference in your life and others.

Pulling the lever for R or D won't fundamentally change your life. Saving and investing can.

 

[Dr. Jones]

The big difference is that learning, sharing and even debating about investing and finance can actually make a positive difference in your life and others.

Pulling the lever for R or D won't fundamentally change your life. Saving and investing can.

Agreed



I have a few rollovers that I combined into a larger "capital directions" account (PNC's term, not mine) a few years back. It seems to be consistent at a 10 to 13% increase each year in the aggressive model I have it in.

And I have been maxing my 401k for a while too at work. A guy I trust says I should max out HSA now that I am maxing out 401k each year. Or.... I could go with our employee stock purchase program. We get a 155 discount so that is already a nice discount IMO.

Thoughts?

 

[Folster]

Agreed



I have a few rollovers that I combined into a larger "capital directions" account (PNC's term, not mine) a few years back. It seems to be consistent at a 10 to 13% increase each year in the aggressive model I have it in.

And I have been maxing my 401k for a while too at work. A guy I trust says I should max out HSA now that I am maxing out 401k each year. Or.... I could go with our employee stock purchase program. We get a 155 discount so that is already a nice discount IMO.

Thoughts?

Aside from the medical benefits, the HSA will provide additional tax deductions and additional retirement savings. I assume that your HSA has an option to invest.

My opinion on the stock purchase plan would depend on the stock involved.

 

[dscher]

My opinion on the stock purchase plan would depend on the stock involved.

Yeah. This.

 

[dscher]

Keeping that eye on the debt market and it's telling. All Fed owned credit products are still in distribution mode. Stealth balance sheet unwind in the making?! But wouldn't know it from their own website.. maybe the money is simply moving because of the size and scale. It would seem there could be a decent correlation with stocks movement the past week....who knows?! I stopped giving them the benefit of the doubt a LONG time ago...lol. Color me a complete skeptic.

Recent balance sheet trends

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

 

[Devilmaycare]

Agreed



I have a few rollovers that I combined into a larger "capital directions" account (PNC's term, not mine) a few years back. It seems to be consistent at a 10 to 13% increase each year in the aggressive model I have it in.

And I have been maxing my 401k for a while too at work. A guy I trust says I should max out HSA now that I am maxing out 401k each year. Or.... I could go with our employee stock purchase program. We get a 155 discount so that is already a nice discount IMO.

Thoughts?

My philosophy now is to fund the 401k to employer match, max out HSA, then max out 401k. I put maxing the HSA first because the money is 100% tax free while the 401k isn't. Medical is also one of the biggest retirement costs so having the 100% tax free money pool for it then frees up your other savings for day to day living expenses.

 

[BigRedRage]

My philosophy now is to fund the 401k to employer match, max out HSA, then max out 401k. I put maxing the HSA first because the money is 100% tax free while the 401k isn't. Medical is also one of the biggest retirement costs so having the 100% tax free money pool for it then frees up your other savings for day to day living expenses.

isnt the HSA, for health spending? Or you can dump tax free money into an HOA for years and years and then withdraw it tax free? I'm lost on HSA stuff. I have never looked at it because my health expenditures are comically low.

 

[Devilmaycare]

isnt the HSA, for health spending? Or you can dump tax free money into an HOA for years and years and then withdraw it tax free? I'm lost on HSA stuff. I have never looked at it because my health expenditures are comically low.

Yes, an HSA is only for health spending. The money goes in pre-tax and is not taxed when it comes out. It never gets taxed. Most HSA lets you invest the money too after a threshold. With mine you can invest any money over $2k. It basically keeps a $2k cash buffer for card use and everything else goes into an index fund.

I have really low health expenditures too right now. I don't think I've spend more than $300 in a year since 2013 when I had my knee rebuilt. I completely look at it was a retire vehicle due to the medical expenses when you get old. You can even pay your medicare part B and D plans out of it. So I'd rather play those expenses with tax free money as much as possible.

 

[BigRedRage]

Yes, an HSA is only for health spending. The money goes in pre-tax and is not taxed when it comes out. It never gets taxed. Most HSA lets you invest the money too after a threshold. With mine you can invest any money over $2k. It basically keeps a $2k cash buffer for card use and everything else goes into an index fund.

I have really low health expenditures too right now. I don't think I've spend more than $300 in a year since 2013 when I had my knee rebuilt. I completely look at it was a retire vehicle due to the medical expenses when you get old. You can even pay your medicare part B and D plans out of it. So I'd rather play those expenses with tax free money as much as possible.

so, this HSA stays with you for life and in general, it just can only be used for health spending. Interesting.

 

[Dr. Jones]

so, this HSA stays with you for life and in general, it just can only be used for health spending. Interesting.

Yep. It's a pretty nice way to lower your taxable income IMO

 

[Folster]

so, this HSA stays with you for life and in general, it just can only be used for health spending. Interesting.

No. At age 65 the HSA can be used for retirement income, but instead of tax free use like on medical expenses, it would be taxed as income like an traditional IRA/401K. Super cool vehicle.

 

[BigRedRage]

No. At age 65 the HSA can be used for retirement income, but instead of tax free use like on medical expenses, it would be taxed as income like an traditional IRA/401K. Super cool vehicle.

That makes it much more appealing as it is no longer single use. Interesting. Can you also take the money out with a tax penalty some day like you can with 401k before 65?

 

[Devilmaycare]

No. At age 65 the HSA can be used for retirement income, but instead of tax free use like on medical expenses, it would be taxed as income like an traditional IRA/401K. Super cool vehicle.

Cool, I wasn't aware of that. Although I wouldn't do that unless I had to. There's only one way my medical expense are going to go away and I'm not concerned about money at all after that event happens.

 

[Folster]

That makes it much more appealing as it is no longer single use. Interesting. Can you also take the money out with a tax penalty some day like you can with 401k before 65?

As long as it's for medical expenses, it's tax free. If you use them for non-medical expenses prior to 65, you have income taxes and a steep 20% penalty.

 

[BigRedRage]

As long as it's for medical expenses, it's tax free. If you use them for non-medical expenses prior to 65, you have income taxes and a steep 20% penalty.

What do you generally put in there? Seems like if I am only using it for medical expenses, as someone who doesnt really have them, I could put $100 a month in there and just let it pile up and probably not even notice that is was removed from my income since it is tax free.

 

[puckhead]

For those exploring HSA's, be sure not to confuse them with FSA's (Flexible Spending Accounts). There are some pretty significant differences between the two. Especially when it comes to using one as part of your retirement strategy.

I also seem to recall the need for a high-deductible health plan to qualify for an HSA. I don't know for certain if that's nationwide or not.

 

[Folster]

For those exploring HSA's, be sure not to confuse them with FSA's (Flexible Spending Accounts). There are some pretty significant differences between the two. Especially when it comes to using one as part of your retirement strategy.

I also seem to recall the need for a high-deductible health plan to qualify for an HSA. I don't know for certain if that's nationwide or not.

Yes. Good point. FSAs are use it or lose it annually. You'll see people in Walgreen's at the end of they year buying tons of medicine to try use up their balance.

 

[Devilmaycare]

What do you generally put in there? Seems like if I am only using it for medical expenses, as someone who doesnt really have them, I could put $100 a month in there and just let it pile up and probably not even notice that is was removed from my income since it is tax free.

I do $152 per paycheck (I get paid twice a month) and that puts me at the $3650 max for the year (single limit). I don't really notice it and it's building a nice secondary nest egg for retirement.

 

[Folster]

What do you generally put in there? Seems like if I am only using it for medical expenses, as someone who doesnt really have them, I could put $100 a month in there and just let it pile up and probably not even notice that is was removed from my income since it is tax free.

We try to max out annually but not every month. We typically leave it a couple thousand short and use it to manipulate things during tax time.

 

[Folster]

Good interview with outlook on interest rates, short term recession takes and EV industry analysis toward the end. You might have to jump through some chit chat at the beginning.

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[NMCard]

Freedom gas is on the move.

Europe and the U.S. Make Ambitious Plans to Reduce Reliance on Russian Gas (Published 2022)

President Biden said the United States would send more natural gas to Europe, though he did not specify how given that the U.S. is already near its export capacity.

www.nytimes.com