The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

So, when you buy stocks on say Schwab, I believe you have to fund the purchase within 3 business days, yeah? So If I buy some back on Friday, as long as money gets into schwab by Tuesday, I would be good?

My house closes Friday and I should get my funds in theory, that day. Once I see them, most of the proceeds are going into my exchange accounts and I dont really want to wait until tues/weds of the following week to buy stocks back necessarily as everything I sold is way down from when I sold it anyway.

Settlement is 2 business days. You may not be able to buy without the money in the acct. Buying while other sales are settling is different than buying with funds that are outside of the account with a cash/non margin acct.

 

[dscher]

Today is most definitely setting us up for some big fireworks tomorrow and Wednesday IMO. Fed days.

 

[Folster]

100% it looks like they plan to mimic the Tesla model. It will reduce this BS of Ford dealerships getting a Mach E and marking it up $20,000 too.

It's silly that dealerships have such strong protection in state laws. Ol' Tex Earnhardt can't be too happy about this move.

 

[Folster]

Today is most definitely setting us up for some big fireworks tomorrow and Wednesday IMO. Fed days.

I'm still waiting on the S&P 500 to hit -20%. I have a decent chunk, I'm going to drop in to a total market index when/if it happens. MAGA stocks are nearing 20% down from their ATH. I might have to settle for -15% for the S&P. It's about 13% now.

 

[dscher]

I'm still waiting on the S&P 500 to hit -20%. I have a decent chunk, I'm going to drop in to a total market index when/if it happens. MAGA stocks are nearing 20% down from their ATH. I might have to settle for -15% for the S&P. It's about 13% now.

I'm keeping my eyes on a plethora of things ATM. The Vix has to particularly get unwound IMO. But I'm keeping a particular eye on IWM for downside to the 165 range before we find a bottom there. Growth/Tech. I have zero clue. AAPL hasn't even sustained much damage yet, which is odd for how bad the rest of the space has performed. But we know they have a value play as well just because of their size and scale.

 

[Folster]

I'm keeping my eyes on a plethora of things ATM. The Vix has to particularly get unwound IMO. But I'm keeping a particular eye on IWM for downside to the 165 range before we find a bottom there. Growth/Tech. I have zero clue. AAPL hasn't even sustained much damage yet, which is odd for how bad the rest of the space has performed. But we know they have a value play as well just because of their size and scale.

AAPL is down 17% from their ATH. That's a decent him for them.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I'm still waiting on the S&P 500 to hit -20%. I have a decent chunk, I'm going to drop in to a total market index when/if it happens. MAGA stocks are nearing 20% down from their ATH. I might have to settle for -15% for the S&P. It's about 13% now.

Same, I'm still sitting on most of my roll over (bought a few GOOG on this dip). I've been planning on dumping it into VTSAX but almost every day has been red since I started it. I'll stay patient while this drop is happening.

 

[Folster]

Same, I'm still sitting on most of my roll over (bought a few GOOG on this dip). I've been planning on dumping it into VTSAX but almost every day has been red since I started it. I'll stay patient while this drop is happening.

Who is your broker? If not Vanguard, do they charge you a fee on Vanguard index funds? Mine charges like $30, so I always opt for ETF versions, the only downside of the ETFs is that you can't set-up a DRIP.

 

[dscher]

AAPL is down 17% from their ATH. That's a decent him for them.

AAPL is notoriously known for their stealth cyclical bear corrections getting into the 30-40 percent range..

 

[Devilmaycare]

Who is your broker? If not Vanguard, Do they charge you a fee on Vanguard index funds?

I'm using Vanguard for my retirement account. I put the rollover into my IRA with them. I had set that up like 15 years ago when I was self employed.

 

[Folster]

I'm using Vanguard for my retirement account. I put the rollover into my IRA with them. I had set that up like 15 years ago when I was self employed.

Ah, then you'll be fine.

 

[dscher]

Credit markets getting decimated. I didn't even eyeball LQD(investment grade) yet in this downturn and it's underperforming HYG(High yield/junk). That's a strange development. Usually high yield takes the brunt of underperformance (for obvious reasons) in downturns.

 

[Folster]

Credit markets getting decimated. I didn't even eyeball LQD(investment grade) yet in this downturn and it's underperforming HYG(High yield/junk). That's a strange development. Usually high yield takes the brunt of underperformance (for obvious reasons) in downturns.

The 10 year was up 6.7%.

 

[dscher]

The 10 year was up 6.7%.

Yeah. We'll just have to see if the secular bull in both treasury bonds and stocks continue at this point. One will have to break in the other direction at some point in the future IMO.

 

[dscher]

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Liquidity actively being sucked from the markets..

 

[BigRedRage]

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Liquidity actively being sucked from the markets..

I def prefer stiff vs limp graphs

 

[Folster]

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[dscher]

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An attack on the dollar is like an attack on the country itself...

 

[dscher]

Face ripper today into the fed rate hike announcement tomorrow.. I'll be glued to the TV just for the reaction alone.

 

[dscher]

Crude oil VIX back at its March pre COVID level...all while price getting squeezed to the upside.

Wouldn't be surprised to see this move be matched with a massive liquidation event...

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95 Crude.

Woulda. Coulda. Shoulda put money where my mouth was..

 

[Folster]

Face ripper today into the fed rate hike announcement tomorrow.. I'll be glued to the TV just for the reaction alone.

25 bps. Yawn.

 

[dscher]

25 bps. Yawn.

Probably. But, I could see a buy the rumor sell the news tomorrow.. bond market is signalling a recession, among other sentiment out there. We're already starting to see the flush from commodities, bonds, along with a stronger dollar. Maybe a soft landing will occur. That will be the hope.

 

[Folster]

It looks like the bottom may finally be in on Chinese tech... I hope. I'm long BABA and have averaged down to $130 now, so I have a ways to go before I'm back in the black. With hindsight, my margin of safety should have been much larger considering the added country/geo political risk. Lesson learned.

 

[Folster]

I know O'Leary is brash and not for everyone, but you have to admire him sticking his chin out with a contrarian take. Proven right in a day.

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[dscher]

I know O'Leary is brash and not for everyone, but you have to admire him sticking his chin out with a contrarian take. Proven right in a day.

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Time will tell. They have a lot of work to do to get out of their long term downtrends. IMO. But I could still see his thesis working out well for investors regardless(over the long term), unless something here happens with China and sanctions because of Russian involvement.