The Market 2022-2023-2024
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Bond Traders Stunned by Hawkish Fed Are Sounding Growth Alarm
(Bloomberg) -- Defying their stock-market counterparts, Treasury traders aren’t buying Jerome Powell’s upbeat pronouncements about the economy. In fact, one bond-market indicator has started flashing red for the first time since the darkest days of the pandemic.Most Read from BloombergPutin Vows...
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking used when we created them"
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Hawkish. 8% inflation - 0.50% FF = -7.5% real return. Even if the Fed hits their 7 hike target, we're still looking at -6% real return if inflation holds.
Bond Traders Stunned by Hawkish Fed Are Sounding Growth Alarm
(Bloomberg) -- Defying their stock-market counterparts, Treasury traders aren’t buying Jerome Powell’s upbeat pronouncements about the economy. In fact, one bond-market indicator has started flashing red for the first time since the darkest days of the pandemic.Most Read from BloombergPutin Vows...finance.yahoo.com
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking used when we created them"
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I'm not sure how you incentivize consumers to save and stop spending when real returns are significantly negative and will be for the foreseeable future.
It's all about demand. If the consumer cant handle 10 dollar gas.. gas prices will have to inevitably follow the consumer. If the consumer can't handle higher interest rates. They need to come down. Simple supply and demand. Our consumer/economy right now is like the person who maxes out all their credit cards and goes crazy right before they know the inevitable bankruptcy/default is on their way. When people don't save and live beyond their means and they aren't growing their money, this is what you get. It's another reason we are net importers now imo. The lax nature of enjoying our spoils a little too much...like Dalios cycle vid. The consumer is the economy. The economy is the consumer.
I'm in the SHOP camp. Bought at $34 and have been holding since 2014. Took a beating recently and it looks like I'll be working an extra year before retirement lol.
I know it was overpriced, but I'm sticking it out with these guys. I love the management team and the company in general. Looks like it's starting to bounce back a bit.
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Hello of a spike to end the day for SHOP. Giving some back in after hours.
Yeah I think a lot of people were cashing in their gains; there's no reason IMO it should have fallen so far.
Triple witching today as well. Always shenanigans to some degree from the market makers.
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That's really interesting. Nothing to cut at this point aside from 50 bps. Obviously a cut back to zero would cause the treasury rates to pull back significantly. It's crazy how long it took to stop QE and start rate increase.
Looks like a zirp or a nirp is likely over time. IMO. Still sticking to my thesis. Lol. We'll see. But, we have the 2 year/3 month yields spiking ATM and I think the long end collapse being suppressed by that liquidity event we're seeing from my post earlier. MBS, corporate, high yield, and all treasuries took another big hit today. Its looking a little fishy to me...and you haven't seen any of the big financial networks talking about this. The Fed has been the market for decades now and we're seeing this massive selling (all the products they suck up) in the credit market under the surface and not a peep. Interesting to say the least. I have my eyes glued to it.
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I went from being down over 40% in BABA to down just 7% in a week. I'm glad I averaged down or I would still be heavy in the red. I actually am probably even now considering I messed up with a wash sale in December. I sold my most expensive BABA lot last year to realize a loss and offset some gains with plans to buyback in 30 days, but forgot I made a purchase less than 30 days earlier. So I got dinged for a pre-sale and missed out on some realized losses and kept my basis inflated.
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This is really good. Lots of blame being thrown at greedy institutional investors and even boomers for causing the housing market to go insane. This chart makes it obvious that the fed and congress are truly at fault. This is a massive tax on renters and non-asset owners, perpetuated by both parties.
You'll own nothing, and be happy...
Also, the appointment of former Fed prez Yellen (Powell's mentor) as the head of the Treasury said all we needed to know... I even giggled at that one at the time. It's still funny today as we've inflated ourselves into a corner that will suffer way more consequences than if we just did nothing at all and let the markets correct on their own... It will be a lesson learned the hard way. IMO
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I saw someone make this head and shoulders comparison last night. Any thoughts? It feels like we're teetering on that cliff and waiting for the fed to push us off.
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It's definitely a head and shoulders pattern. They all have a little variation. But it definitely signals a form of distribution. They are stronger patterns as well when they are off weekly timeframes, like this one.
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The question to ask is how many times has a head and shoulders pattern presented without a subsequent crash? If the answer is more than not, then it's useless really as you are likely to suffer worse returns by pulling out when one appears.
That's a good question that I don't know and I'm not finding on a quick google search. @dscher you're a lot more of a chart guy then I am since I'm just starting to learn them, any idea?
So I worked this one up from 2008 and 2000. Chart of the S&P 500 on a weekly chart. A little sloppy, but you see the same one from your chart you posted along with a rising trendline head and shoulders from 2000 with a backtest off that trendline. TA is most definitely an art form. So everyone draws trendlines and sees things a little differently. Nonetheless...these are valid signs of distribution IMO. More or less, that's what matters with charts and these patterns. The ability to see large scale distribution... especially on a weekly timeframe.
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