The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Russ Smith]

Musk has offered to buy 100% of TWTR at $54.20. He reportedly plans to take it private.

Seems too low it was over 70 not all that long ago. If Musk believes he can fix the issues with it, then he should be offering more he's only offering like 20% more.

Apparently people who work there are not happy and saying there will be a mass exodus if Musk buys it because they're well aware of his management style at tesla and want no part of it.

 

[Folster]

Seems too low it was over 70 not all that long ago. If Musk believes he can fix the issues with it, then he should be offering more he's only offering like 20% more.

Apparently people who work there are not happy and saying there will be a mass exodus if Musk buys it because they're well aware of his management style at tesla and want no part of it.

It was 70 during the Fed fueled speculative bubble. But more recently it was sub 40 before his position was disclosed. That would seem like a good deal for shareholders to me unless I was a dope that bought near $70. Also, he's threatened to bail if they decline which would certainly cause the stock to tank opening up the board to lawsuits by shareholders.

And to your point about losing employees, clearing out all of the HR nightmares seems like a good problem for a new management team. Musk has plenty of people who would love to work for him.

 

[Russ Smith]

It was 70 during the Fed fueled speculative bubble. But more recently it was sub 40 before his position was disclosed. That would seem like a good deal for shareholders to me unless I was a dope that bought near $70. Also, he's threatened to bail if they decline which would certainly cause the stock to tank opening up the board to lawsuits by shareholders.

And to your point about losing employees, clearing out all of the HR nightmares seems like a good problem for a new management team. Musk has plenty of people who would love to work for him.

not in Silicon Valley, he's not all that popular here with tech employees because of Tesla. People here don't want to return to office and he's been really clear he wants them to. Twitter said not all that long ago they were returning March 15th but it wasn't mandatory and that people who can effectively work from home, can do so "forever" if they want to. That's one of the things Musk complained about.

I see on the price but I think the company will say you're trying to buy just off the lows and we appreciate that but we think the value is bigger. Lots of predictions that they think because Musk threatened to dump his stock if they don't sell, they will probably eventually capitulate to him but it will be a process they're not just going to roll over and say here you go. They have to try and do well by the shareholders so it will be tricky.

There's also something they were talking about on CNBC that says almost all public companies have something in the "covenants" that put restrictions on selling and one of them is usually relates to SEC violations and of course there's speculation Musk violated SEC rules by waiting too long to disclose his purchase of Twitter shares. So there may be some regulatory hoops Twitter would have to jump through to be allowed to sell to him unless the SEC decides they're not going to investigate that.

 

[Folster]

not in Silicon Valley, he's not all that popular here with tech employees because of Tesla. People here don't want to return to office and he's been really clear he wants them to. Twitter said not all that long ago they were returning March 15th but it wasn't mandatory and that people who can effectively work from home, can do so "forever" if they want to. That's one of the things Musk complained about.

I see on the price but I think the company will say you're trying to buy just off the lows and we appreciate that but we think the value is bigger. Lots of predictions that they think because Musk threatened to dump his stock if they don't sell, they will probably eventually capitulate to him but it will be a process they're not just going to roll over and say here you go. They have to try and do well by the shareholders so it will be tricky.

There's also something they were talking about on CNBC that says almost all public companies have something in the "covenants" that put restrictions on selling and one of them is usually relates to SEC violations and of course there's speculation Musk violated SEC rules by waiting too long to disclose his purchase of Twitter shares. So there may be some regulatory hoops Twitter would have to jump through to be allowed to sell to him unless the SEC decides they're not going to investigate that.

I also saw speculation that there may be other buyers, but they would likely run into anti-trust issues. I don't see the government allowing FB, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, or MSFT to buy TWTR. They have probably already checked with their lawyers.

 

[Russ Smith]

I also saw speculation that there may be other buyers, but they would likely run into anti-trust issues. I don't see the government allowing FB, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, or MSFT to buy TWTR. They have probably already checked with their lawyers.

Yeah short of someone like Bezos or Gates I don't see too many people with the money to compete with Musk.

 

[Folster]

The more I hear and think about this, the more I think Elon is just throwing a bomb into the board room with this offer with an outside chance he takes ownership of the company.

 

[dscher]

The more I hear and think about this, the more I think Elon is just throwing a bomb into the board room with this offer with an outside chance he takes ownership of the company.

Love it. Lol

You don't have evolution without revolution..

 

[elindholm]

Well, I'm not a Musk believer, but I do accept that he's a phenomenon. So I've picked up TWTR at 45.85. 18% increase if it ends up going for his price.

 

[BigRedRage]

Seems too low it was over 70 not all that long ago. If Musk believes he can fix the issues with it, then he should be offering more he's only offering like 20% more.

Apparently people who work there are not happy and saying there will be a mass exodus if Musk buys it because they're well aware of his management style at tesla and want no part of it.

from what I read, they have a super lazy culture so it is no surprise they would want to leave if someone who expects you to work comes on board. would all be for the better in that specific take.

 

[Folster]

Well, I'm not a Musk believer, but I do accept that he's a phenomenon. So I've picked up TWTR at 45.85. 18% increase if it ends up going for his price.

What's the flipside of that coin in your estimation?

 

[Russ Smith]

from what I read, they have a super lazy culture so it is no surprise they would want to leave if someone who expects you to work comes on board. would all be for the better in that specific take.

they're workaholics they work more than 12 hours a day when working on big projects. A late friend of mine worked at Twitter early on he was in the first 100 employees there. He left because he said as they got bigger it became apparent to him that they wanted to continue engineering in start up mode where 60-80 hour weeks were the norm, and he didn't want to do that. Left for Snowflake, got rich off the stock, and then literally a week after he moved into his brand new house he died in his sleep. He was the guy I've mentioned before that needed a kidney transplant and he had just gotten listed on a couple of places for qualified transplant when he died.

But he had lots of friends at Twitter still and what he said was they were all still working lots of hours. May have changed I don't know. There's a reason work at home workers are actually more productive, they work more hours they don't have to commute, they don't have to leave one meeting and walk to another etc.

 

[elindholm]

What's the flipside of that coin in your estimation?

I don't know, maybe mid 30s. If the Musk chatter dies down and it gets below 40, I'll probably bail.

 

[Folster]

I don't know, maybe mid 30s. If the Musk chatter dies down and it gets below 40, I'll probably bail.

You going to put a stop limit on that?

 

[BigRedRage]

Well, I'm not a Musk believer, but I do accept that he's a phenomenon. So I've picked up TWTR at 45.85. 18% increase if it ends up going for his price.

I'm at $50 for same reasons but only invested like .05% of my portfolio if that.

 

[dscher]

Haha. CNBC airing Elon's Ted talk about Twitter then goes into an awesome rant about the bastard s at the SEC....and they immediately cut back to the original broadcast. Hilarious.

 

[elindholm]

You going to put a stop limit on that?

No, I keep a pretty careful eye on things, so it's not going to take me by surprise.

 

[Folster]

No, I keep a pretty careful eye on things, so it's not going to take me by surprise.

It would probably blow through any stop limit anyway and it will probably happen after hours.

 

[elindholm]

It would probably blow through any stop limit anyway and it will probably happen after hours.

Yeah I guess I'm vulnerable to a big overnight plunge, but there's no escaping that.

 

[Folster]

LOL! The three letter agencies are none to happy with Musk's antics. And I didn't even catch the $54.20 in Musk's offer. He is Neo in the Matrix. Agent Smith's are spawning everywhere. He better get to a phone quick.

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[Folster]

Just inject this Musk/Twitter drama directly into my veins. This is great! Now the Saudis are getting tarred for sparring with him.

 

[BigRedRage]

I fell down a rabbit hole of comments after that tweet and I generally never even review comments outside of the top one or two.

 

[Finito]

It was 70 during the Fed fueled speculative bubble. But more recently it was sub 40 before his position was disclosed. That would seem like a good deal for shareholders to me unless I was a dope that bought near $70. Also, he's threatened to bail if they decline which would certainly cause the stock to tank opening up the board to lawsuits by shareholders.

And to your point about losing employees, clearing out all of the HR nightmares seems like a good problem for a new management team. Musk has plenty of people who would love to work for him.

He’s not really that popular with the ground level employees in the Bay Area

 

[elindholm]

Just inject this Musk/Twitter drama directly into my veins. This is great! Now the Saudis are getting tarred for sparring with him.

Yeah, I'm thinking now that I'm in over my head. The markets are closed tomorrow, but on Monday I'll look for a graceful exit. Thanks to the late sell-off today, I'm down 1.7%, but it wouldn't be too hard for me to call that the price of education and move on.

 

[Folster]

Yeah, I'm thinking now that I'm in over my head. The markets are closed tomorrow, but on Monday I'll look for a graceful exit. Thanks to the late sell-off today, I'm down 1.7%, but it wouldn't be too hard for me to call that the price of education and move on.

Yeah. It's a tough call, but my gut says it's going down in the short term. If he tanks the stock, I might step up to the plate for a short term trade if it gets oversold. I just know if I were to get in now, it would guarantee me a loss and you with me.

I think they reject the offer, and he keeps the negative pressure on them or does something else unexpected. Who knows. Best of luck to you. Hopefully some news this weekend gets you a pop on Monday.

 

[dscher]

LOL! The three letter agencies are none to happy with Musk's antics. And I didn't even catch the $54.20 in Musk's offer. He is Neo in the Matrix. Agent Smith's are spawning everywhere. He better get to a phone quick.

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Good take..

Definitely feels like he's the anomaly to bring significant change to the system.