The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Yuma]

What are you buying, indexes or individuals stocks?

Unfortunately it's my 401K and I only have indexes in there.

 

[BigRedRage]

yuck

 

[Folster]

Brutal day. The Nasdaq is back in bear market territory and on the verge of testing March lows. The S&P is back in correction territory.

GOOG and MSFT report today while AAPL and AMZN report Thursday. These are the four pillars holding up the market. Cracks in one or two could send the market tumbling.

 

[Russ Smith]

yeah massive selloff in nasdaq.

I actually bought 5 shares of TSLA just because a friend has been telling me to for awhile and I told him if it gets below 1000 I will.

 

[dscher]

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[dscher]

Could be the start of BTC move to 20k.... That tight Nasdaq correlation will have a similar move for both across the board IMO.

 

[elindholm]

So TSLA tanked today and TWTR moved hard in the opposite direction of its $54.20 sell point. It's almost as though the market isn't all that convinced that Musk knows what he's doing. How could they have doubts about someone so wealthy? Or is it that they're afraid of free speech and saving the environment?

 

[dscher]

So TSLA tanked today and TWTR moved hard in the opposite direction of its $54.20 sell point. It's almost as though the market isn't all that convinced that Musk knows what he's doing. How could they have doubts about someone so wealthy? Or is it that they're afraid of free speech and saving the environment?

Broad based pan sell off in just about everything and you think Elon Musk and his TWTR drama matters?....

You must be registered for see images attach

 

[BigRedRage]

Broad based pan sell off in just about everything and you think Elon Musk and his TWTR drama matters?....

You must be registered for see images attach

no doubt. My entire yahoo finance watchlist was red today. ALL of it.

The TSLA selloff is likely the same, with some fuel of the media narrative "will he sell TSLA shares to buy TWTR?"

 

[82CardsGrad]

We're two rate hikes away from being able to go on a serious shopping spree! NVDA, TXN, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT... Gonna wait for the Fed to do their job, and then it's BUY TIME!

 

[Russ Smith]

no doubt. My entire yahoo finance watchlist was red today. ALL of it.

The TSLA selloff is likely the same, with some fuel of the media narrative "will he sell TSLA shares to buy TWTR?"

There's a paywall article on yahoo's site that the headline says people are afraid of him being on margin which I assume means they think he's borrowing against TSLA shares. Which as I said last week is what I was waiting for, I assumed that would probably lower the price although I think that was more yesterday I think today was just overall market.

Between Friday and today just a horrible few days I really am not looking forward to doing my monthly spreadsheet on Thur night. I do it the last day of every month and this is going to be the 3rd month this year where it's negative and probably very negative. Not a shock but still sucks in the short term.

I have been pushing cash into my etrade account for a few months now getting ready to buy some stocks. TSLA was today I think I will hold off a bit before the next round of buying.

 

[dscher]

We're two rate hikes away

If we even get there...

 

[82CardsGrad]

If we even get there...

Well...yea, I guess. We'll get the .5bps at the next meeting. As for the second one, we'll have to see I guess. Personally, I think the Fed is nuts if they continue to raise rates in the face of such a crushing inflation cycle. I fail to see how higher interest rates will benefit the broad economy whom are struggling with the price of fuel, eggs and milk... This isn't a demand-driven inflation cycle (except for housing). It's a supply-chain issue. Raising rates won't curtail the demand for fuel, eggs and milk.

 

[dscher]

Raising rates won't curtail the demand for fuel, eggs and milk.

Right. Will only make it worse. IMO. I think it's even bigger than just that... Interest on serviceable debt will be almost unpayable for some if it continues. Raising rates can absolutely curtail demand for many in the middle class and definitely the lower class. But rates will have to inevitably come down if the demand for those higher rates doesn't continue. IMO Between margin debt and revolving debt, if things get kooky in the stock and debt markets then you'll see a vicious feedback loop from the economy into the markets and vice versa.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Right. Will only make it worse. IMO. I think it's even bigger than just that... Interest on serviceable debt will be almost unpayable for some if it continues. Raising rates can absolutely curtail demand for many in the middle class and definitely the lower class. But rates will have to inevitably come down if the demand for those higher rates doesn't continue. IMO Between margin debt and revolving debt, if things get kooky in the stock and debt markets then you'll see a vicious feedback loop from the economy into the markets and vice versa.

Yep... I think the odds of the Fed pushing us into a recession, perhaps a deep recession, are better than 50%...

 

[dscher]

Yep... I think the odds of the Fed pushing us into a recession, perhaps a deep recession, are better than 50%...

I don't think they have any choice. How can they fight something they created and were never meant to fix?! They destroy it. They effectively pull the plug and sell the products they bought to keep the inflation creation machine going... How they will fix out of control inflation is by deflation...no better cure for that inflation than a pretty substantial recession. IMO at least. Maybe it's really a sign to not fight the Fed.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I don't think they have any choice. How can they fight fix something they created and were never meant to fix?! They destroy it. They effectively pull the plug and sell the products they bought to keep the inflation creation machine going... How they will fix out of control inflation is by deflation...no better cure for that inflation than a pretty substantial recession. IMO at least. Maybe it's really a sign to not fight the Fed.

Sounds like we probably don't view the actions of the Fed in the same light... When you say "they created," I am assuming you're referring to Quantitative Easing?
I think QE will be debated for centuries to come. IMHO, I think it was a proper response to the Financial Crises back in '08/'09. Was it the "most" appropriate or BEST path to take? I dunno...that's above my pay-grade. But I do feel the Fed likely acted too quickly and perhaps improperly when than restarted the QE engines in response to the pandemic.
I don't believe the Fed enjoy the having to contend with the vicious cycles and would much prefer long-lasting price and employment stability. That's a pipe-dream though...
Much deeper convo for another day, regarding the Fed. Is it necessary to have a Fed or not?

 

[dscher]

Sounds like we probably don't view the actions of the Fed in the same light... When you say "they created," I am assuming you're referring to Quantitative Easing?
I think QE will be debated for centuries to come. IMHO, I think it was a proper response to the Financial Crises back in '08/'09. Was it the "most" appropriate or BEST path to take? I dunno...that's above my pay-grade. But I do feel the Fed likely acted too quickly and perhaps improperly when than restarted the QE engines in response to the pandemic.
I don't believe the Fed enjoy the having to contend with the vicious cycles and would much prefer long-lasting price and employment stability. That's a pipe-dream though...
Much deeper convo for another day, regarding the Fed. Is it necessary to have a Fed or not?

It's a good question. Everyone will have different views and opinions of what they do or don't do...and even their motives at times. But, regardless, one thing is clear in any economy and their role is to inflate and "create price stability and employment" (that one's always been a little funny to me). It's a silly premise IMO since free markets shouldn't rely on an outside entity for "price stability". I digress. Ultimately, Inflation is overwhelmingly good for the upper class and not so good at all for most in the middle and lower class. They just printed us into oblivion and when others were screaming from the rooftops to stop, they just kept on rolling. Borderline lying to anyone in the know about macro economics. I personally refuse to believe that people on my YouTube/Twitter feed and myself are smarter than people and the resources they have at the fed to see these signals... Overall, things will take their natural course. The fed, I believe, was just a tool to get us to economic end cycle just that much faster than it would have on its own..

 

[Devilmaycare]

Yep... I think the odds of the Fed pushing us into a recession, perhaps a deep recession, are better than 50%...

I think we're a lot higher than 50% now. I'm going to be shocked if we're not in a recession in 2023. At this point I'm also thinking that it's going to be a needed correction for everything that's been going on.

Sounds like we probably don't view the actions of the Fed in the same light... When you say "they created," I am assuming you're referring to Quantitative Easing?
I think QE will be debated for centuries to come. IMHO, I think it was a proper response to the Financial Crises back in '08/'09. Was it the "most" appropriate or BEST path to take? I dunno...that's above my pay-grade. But I do feel the Fed likely acted too quickly and perhaps improperly when than restarted the QE engines in response to the pandemic.
I don't believe the Fed enjoy the having to contend with the vicious cycles and would much prefer long-lasting price and employment stability. That's a pipe-dream though...
Much deeper convo for another day, regarding the Fed. Is it necessary to have a Fed or not?

Some QE might have been needed for '08/'09 but I think they did too much and I really think they did too much of it during the pandemic. Way too much money was printed and I don't think the money was targeted well. They've also kept interest rates too low for too long.

It's really feeling to me now that all we did with the '08 recession "fixes" is kick the can down the road and we're going to pay for it in the coming recession. Hopefully '08 + '22 comes out to less pain then if they let '08 play out on its own. It's also going to be interesting to see how they try to handle this one since I don't think those dial as available anymore.

For your necessary question, I've never been a fan of the Fed so I'm in the "or not" camp.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Brutal day. The Nasdaq is back in bear market territory and on the verge of testing March lows. The S&P is back in correction territory.

GOOG and MSFT report today while AAPL and AMZN report Thursday. These are the four pillars holding up the market. Cracks in one or two could send the market tumbling.

Well, so far we're off to a horrible start thanks to Google. GOOG missed and dropped $77 (3.23%) in AH. MSFT had a slight beat and is up in AH. Hopefully we see the same from AMZN and AAPL, especially AAPL for my portfolio.

 

[Folster]

FB reported and is up 19% after hours, so it must've been positive.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Qualcomm en fuego!

 

[Folster]

TDOC down 35% in after hours. If that holds, it's down over 86% from its high. Unreal! I think it's one of Cathie's biggest holdings. Yep, nearly 7% of her funds.

Edit: Apparently Cathie just bought more shares yesterday before earnings were released. Jesus! So much for insider trading.

 

[Devilmaycare]

FB reported and is up 19% after hours, so it must've been positive.

Looks like they were mainly treading water which for the last quarter I guess is positive. I'm surprised it jumped 20% on these numbers and forward guidance being lower than expected.

Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported profit of $7.5 billion for the first quarter, down 21 percent from a year earlier.

For the March quarter, Meta (ticker: FB) posted revenue of $27.9 billion, up 7% from a year ago. That was a little short of the Wall Street consensus forecast of $28.3 billion, and about in the middle of the company’s guidance range of $27 billion to $29 billion. Profits in the quarter were $2.72 a share, a little above the consensus of $2.56 a share.

For the June quarter, Meta sees revenue ranging from $28 billion to $30 billion, falling short of the old Wall Street consensus forecast of $30.7 billion. At the middle of the range, revenue would be flat with the year ago quarter at $29.1 billion.

 

[Folster]

Looks like they were mainly treading water which for the last quarter I guess is positive. I'm surprised it jumped 20% on these numbers and forward guidance being lower than expected.

Yeah small revenue miss, but a beat on earnings and the all important DAU for social media companies.