The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Devilmaycare]

Yeah small revenue miss, but a beat on earnings and the all important DAU for social media companies.

Profits down 21% YOY and EPS down 18% YOY seems significant. Total costs and expenses were up 31% too. I haven't seen anything other than numbers yet so maybe they have a good explanation to the jump in expenses and that's why profits and EPS were down. My gut says they're having to spend more to make the same due to the changes in advertising but they might have had something bigger too around the rebranding or something.

I think these numbers along with GOOG's from yesterday show that Apple's anti-tracking measures are having a real impact on businesses that rely on Ad revenue. Outside of GOOG I think I'm going to avoid anyone for whom revenue is mainly ad driven for a bit. There's been some rumblings that Google is going to implement something similar on Android. If that happens the FBs of the world are going to be in trouble.

 

[Folster]

Profits down 21% YOY and EPS down 18% YOY seems significant. Total costs and expenses were up 31% too. I haven't seen anything other than numbers yet so maybe they have a good explanation to the jump in expenses and that's why profits and EPS were down. My gut says they're having to spend more to make the same due to the changes in advertising but they might have had something bigger too around the rebranding or something.

I think these numbers along with GOOG's from yesterday show that Apple's anti-tracking measures are having a real impact on businesses that rely on Ad revenue. Outside of GOOG I think I'm going to avoid anyone for whom revenue is mainly ad driven for a bit. There's been some rumblings that Google is going to implement something similar on Android. If that happens the FBs of the world are going to be in trouble.

Profit margins are still high over 26% which is down from previous years as you said but on par with advertising competitor, Google. If you compare Q1 income statements from 2021 and 2022 you'll see a $2.5B increase in R&D which is likely increased investment into their metaverse project. Without that additional R&D spending, they actually have a YOY earnings increase, but that is not money lost, just reinvested. Whether it's a good investment and if it ever pays off, remains to be seen.

 

[Folster]

FANG stocks are soaring with AAPL and AMZN set to release earnings after close.

 

[BigRedRage]

fingers crossed

 

[dscher]

Carrrreful with this bounce. IMO, we aren't even close to out of the woods yet. By the looks of my charts, it just looks like a volatility spike from oversold conditions. IE. Dead cat. These are the things you get with high levels of vol out there. So, let the show begin!

 

[Folster]

Carrrreful with this bounce. IMO, we aren't even close to out of the woods yet. By the looks of my charts, it just looks like a volatility spike from oversold conditions. IE. Dead cat. These are the things you get with high levels of vol out there. So, let the show begin!

Fed funds rate is still 0.50% and they haven't begun the balance sheet reduction yet.

 

[dscher]

Fed funds rate is still 0.50% and they haven't begun the balance sheet reduction yet.

Have you been watching the debt market? MBS/corporate/treasuries/muni's. All massive sell offs prior to these swing volatility spikes to the upside and downside. That's not a coincidence to me. That, IMO, is effectively a balance sheet bleed off whether their Fed admits it or not. We know that's their MO after all.. they've been steering people off the cliff since the dot com bubble. IMO.

 

[dscher]

How fun. Our own economic council can't comment on what the fed does. Reassuring.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Whew, it looks like AAPL killed it. So we ended up 50% for MAGA this quarter.

 

[dscher]

Whew, it looks like AAPL killed it. So we ended up 50% for MAGA this quarter.

Looks like they didn't like something in the phone call..

 

[Folster]

AMZN down 12% after hours after a revenue beat, but earnings miss due to a Rivian write off.

 

[Devilmaycare]

Looks like they didn't like something in the phone call..

I hadn't seen the call stuff yet, just the number. From CNBC:

Apple stock fell nearly 4% in extended trading after initially rising after Apple CFO Luca Maestri warned of several challenges in the current quarter, including supply constraints related to Covid that could hurt sales by between $4 billion and $8 billion. Apple also warned that demand in China was being hurt by Covid-related lockdowns.

Sounds like problems that are going to hit a lot of companies.

 

[dscher]

I hadn't seen the call stuff yet, just the number. From CNBC:

Sounds like problems that are going to hit a lot of companies.

Yep. And just in time for earnings surprises. Sad MSM is so in the bag they can't report on a mainstream financial channel the importance of talking about this China/COVID related content BEFORE it affects the average investor.

 

[dscher]

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[elindholm]

TDOC down 35% in after hours. If that holds, it's down over 86% from its high. Unreal! I think it's one of Cathie's biggest holdings. Yep, nearly 7% of her funds.

Edit: Apparently Cathie just bought more shares yesterday before earnings were released. Jesus! So much for insider trading.

Both Wood and Morningstar have been pushing TDOC forever. There were a few times that I almost bit, but held off. I decided to listen to the skeptics, who were right this time.

If you're looking for the next stock to short, that would be Western Union WU. I was looking for something in the financials sector and was attracted to their growth potential in developing countries and solid dividend history (~5%). They just released a mixed earnings report and are tanking today, and I was able to pick it up at 17.55. Of course it's already down another 70c in the next half hour. Given how badly I've been picking these days, you could do worse than to bet on WU dropping a bunch more.

 

[Folster]

Both Wood and Morningstar have been pushing TDOC forever. There were a few times that I almost bit, but held off. I decided to listen to the skeptics, who were right this time.

If you're looking for the next stock to short, that would be Western Union WU. I was looking for something in the financials sector and was attracted to their growth potential in developing countries and solid dividend history (~5%). They just released a mixed earnings report and are tanking today, and I was able to pick it up at 17.55. Of course it's already down another 70c in the next half hour. Given how badly I've been picking these days, you could do worse than to bet on WU dropping a bunch more.

I'm glad you steered clear of TDOC. I don't see a MOAT and think insurance companies and other big tech companies will doom them.

I've seen WU on a few stock screeners I've ran. I can't get past the fact that in the US it's mainly used by scammers and people who don't have checking accounts, but I image that's just the bias of my vantage point. They could be interesting internationally, but I would be concerned with competition from all of the other established and fledgling payment systems and apps. But I literally know nothing about the company aside from my biased and probably inaccurate observation. I'm sure you got a lot of info from the analyst reports.

 

[elindholm]

But I literally know nothing about the company aside from my biased and probably inaccurate observation. I'm sure you got a lot of info from the analyst reports.

Eh, sure, but it's all filtered. What I think helps WU stand out is that they are an established brand. Especially in developing nations, there's a trust factor that comes into play.

It's nudged back over 17, so it looks like I dodged immediate disaster.

 

[BigRedRage]

Tesla has formally filed to introduce a vote to do a 10-1 stock split at the annual shareholders meeting.

 

[dscher]

Nasty breakdown on Amazon timeframes across the board. Tons of volume and support in the 2000-1600 range for a downside target potential..

 

[dscher]

Sure glad CNBC had their cute little stock draft thingy instead of highlighting COVID/supply chain/China issues...

***** gonna really start to bug me as we move forward..

 

[BigRedRage]

Sure glad CNBC had their cute little stock draft thingy instead of highlighting COVID/supply chain/China issues...

***** gonna really start to bug me as we move forward..

Typical. News company only gives you what it wants to give you. Market manipulation?

 

[Folster]

Nasty breakdown on Amazon timeframes across the board. Tons of volume and support in the 2000-1600 range for a downside target potential..

Yeah. I bought 5 shares at 1K back in the day. Sold one at $3500 and put a limit order on another at $4K that never triggered. I wish I would have sold another, but I'm in it for the long run. I regret trimming some AAPL at $150 around the same time as it soared to $180 after. But it's not too far off of that now again. I need to re-run my analysis for them.

 

[dscher]

Typical. News company only gives you what it wants to give you. Market manipulation?

I just think it's about misdirection. Manipulation is everywhere...and always will be IMHO. But yeah.. I think this stuff if patently obvious supporting more some of my own theories. But as always... It's probably somewhere in between. Bear market news doesn't sell either... So there is that ever so important business decision.

 

[Folster]

I'm ashamed to admit that I was so wrapped up in the market and the Suns that I didn't know the draft was yesterday until my buddy said something. Usually I spend weeks prior reading up on players and the Cards projections. It completely snuck up on me.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm ashamed to admit that I was so wrapped up in the market and the Suns that I didn't know the draft was yesterday until my buddy said something. Usually I spend weeks prior reading up on players and the Cards projections. It completely snuck up on me.

it snuck up on em too. I think it has a lot to do with all the BS news out there though. Every time I get cardinals updates its "will the team trade kyler?" and other nonsense so I have fully tuned out the NFL for this offseason. As the draft progresses I will be reading a lot though. Might even watch the draft tonight, maybe. Probably jsut wait for who we pick and read scout profiles on them though.

Also just bought me some F jae crowder shirts on etsy!