The Market 2022-2023-2024

[dscher]

All set up for the fed tomorrow after the nutty day of sideway action...

 

[Folster]

All set up for the fed tomorrow after the nutty day of sideway action...

50 bps with word on their unwinding plan.

 

[dscher]

50 bps with word on their unwinding plan.

We'll see. We already had word on their balance sheet reduction last meeting. This one could make for quite the day across all the markets.

 

[82CardsGrad]

We'll see. We already had word on their balance sheet reduction last meeting. This one could make for quite the day across all the markets.

Meh... 50bps is baked in the cake. And the Fed has already confirmed they will be unwinding their balance sheet starting June 1st, to the tune of One Trillion per month (I think that's the amount they stated).

The CPI report next week is expected to be lower than the 2021 comparison... and if it is, there will likely be a stock rally that could carry through the rest of May.
There are some "experts" still predicting robust market returns for the rest of the year... I'd be happy if the market simply stayed level to be honest.

 

[dscher]

Meh... 50bps is baked in the cake. And the Fed has already confirmed they will be unwinding their balance sheet starting June 1st, to the tune of One Trillion per month (I think that's the amount they stated).

The CPI report next week is expected to be lower than the 2021 comparison... and if it is, there will likely be a stock rally that could carry through the rest of May.
There are some "experts" still predicting robust market returns for the rest of the year... I'd be happy if the market simply stayed level to be honest.

Agreed. 50 is baked in at this point. A surprise isn't. IMO.

 

[Folster]

50 bps as expected.

 

[Folster]

Market seems to be happy with the announcement and so far with Powell's Q&A.

 

[BigRedRage]

lol my yahoo finance swung so far it was frozen on the red instead of showing me all this green after the fed minutes

 

[Russ Smith]

friend of mine works for Super Micro, SMCI. She was complaining the other day that she really didn't want the stock options they gave her would prefer a raise. She can't sell yet but their stock went up 31% today! Apparently big earnings and revenue beat. One of those companies that is terribly run so they don't make anywhere near as much stock value as they should so nice to see it go up.

 

[Folster]

Yesterday's relief rally. Poof! These rallies followed by new all time lows are really going to break investors.

 

[elindholm]

friend of mine works for Super Micro, SMCI. She was complaining the other day that she really didn't want the stock options they gave her would prefer a raise. She can't sell yet but their stock went up 31% today! Apparently big earnings and revenue beat. One of those companies that is terribly run so they don't make anywhere near as much stock value as they should so nice to see it go up.

A friend talked me into buying Unity (U) and all it's done is tank. Nice to hear of some success stories in the smaller-cap computing world.

 

[Russ Smith]

Man days like the last 2 are when I start questioning how much insider trading actually happens. Huge up day yesterday on baked in rate news. And then today we crater with no actual new information. I can't help but think some people made a killing yesterday going long then sold and went short and are killing again today.

Yesterday didn't really make sense since we knew what they were going to say and near as I can tell today doesn't make sense either nothing has changed

 

[dscher]

Yesterday's relief rally. Poof! These rallies followed by new all time lows are really going to break investors.

We went into very strong resistance zone yesterday which is why I wanted to see what happened today with any follow through or not. Nothing is over till it is. But with the amount of volatility we are now seeing, it's confirming everything my charts are screaming. Volatility is here to stay and it will test everyone, bulls and bears, moving forward... Like I indicated a few days ago. Buckle up.

 

[AsUpRoDiGy]

Any breakers triggered today? My goodness

 

[dscher]

Any breakers triggered today? My goodness

Breakers will be triggered in the 5-10 percent range. Scary sight to see is that volatility expansion isn't even in peak mode yet and we're seeing this distribution...

 

[82CardsGrad]

We went into very strong resistance zone yesterday which is why I wanted to see what happened today with any follow through or not. Nothing is over till it is. But with the amount of volatility we are now seeing, it's confirming everything my charts are screaming. Volatility is here to stay and it will test everyone, bulls and bears, moving forward... Like I indicated a few days ago. Buckle up.

Or... if you have a longer-term horizon (beyond the next 6-12 months), there are and will continue to be, tremendous buying opportunities... especially in Tech. MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, Amazon, AMD, INTL, and on and on... Companies with great balance sheets, steady/growing/reliable revenue and strong cash-flow and profits. Kathie Wood is being taken to the "wood-shed" and I wouldn't touch any of her stocks with a 100 foot pole!

 

[dscher]

Or... if you have a longer-term horizon (beyond the next 6-12 months), there are and will continue to be, tremendous buying opportunities... especially in Tech. MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, Amazon, AMD, INTL, and on and on... Companies with great balance sheets, steady/growing/reliable revenue and strong cash-flow and profits. Kathie Wood is being taken to the "wood-shed" and I wouldn't touch any of her stocks with a 100 foot pole!

Yep. If you believe in the secular theme of this bull market and economy moving forward... Strong mega cap tech stocks will absolutely be the best bet IMO.

 

[Folster]

Man days like the last 2 are when I start questioning how much insider trading actually happens. Huge up day yesterday on baked in rate news. And then today we crater with no actual new information. I can't help but think some people made a killing yesterday going long then sold and went short and are killing again today.

Yesterday didn't really make sense since we knew what they were going to say and near as I can tell today doesn't make sense either nothing has changed

Productivity was reported lower today. Remember the 10% daily swings during the covid crash?

 

[Russ Smith]

Productivity was reported lower today. Remember the 10% daily swings during the covid crash?

I guess that could be it. Before I left for work this morning CNBC had a guy on who said he doesn't think this is really due to productivity numbers because he said the BLS report is inaccurate and they knew that when it was released. He said there's a note in the report that says due to some variances beyond their control the data is not complete and they will be updating it in a week to 10 days when they have all the data. Maybe that guy was wrong but he said he was quite surprised at the selloff because as soon as the BLS number came out analysts were saying don't panic it's not a real number

Unemployment went up a bit I guess I just looked it up online. I've been at work since 7:15 outside or on a roof with electricians getting lighting to work so I had limited access to news.

 

[dscher]

Fed bought credit market products continue their implosion.. will be interesting to keep an eye on that, more than likely lagging, balance sheet on the feds website.

 

[Folster]

NASDAQ is getting crushed.

I put a little bit of cash from recent contributions in my Roth to work. Gotta buy a little on days like this.

 

[dscher]

NASDAQ is getting crushed.

I put a little bit of cash from recent contributions in my Roth to work. Gotta buy a little on days like this.

Be safe out there in the madness buddy.

 

[dscher]

One of my trader counterparts with his own trading service is thinking this move could be the real start of the margin debt bubble unwind...

 

[BigRedRage]

wild times!

 

[Folster]

One of my trader counterparts with his own trading service is thinking this move could be the real start of the margin debt bubble unwind...

I'm good as long as crypto eats it.