The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Russ Smith]

NASDAQ is getting crushed.

I put a little bit of cash from recent contributions in my Roth to work. Gotta buy a little on days like this.

yep it is crazy

 

[elindholm]

Productivity was reported lower today. Remember the 10% daily swings during the covid crash?

There were only four days in March 2020 when the DJIA's daily change was more than 8% in either direction, and zero days in any other month since 2008.

 

[dscher]

I'm good as long as crypto eats it.

So goes the Nasdaq as BTC goes though.. especially with margin calls. How much leverage are in those two asset classes!? It's almost incomprehensible, even to me..

 

[Folster]

There were only four days in March 2020 when the DJIA's daily change was more than 8% in either direction, and zero days in any other month since 2008.

maybe open to close, but intraday was even wilder than it seems looking back.

 

[Russ Smith]

I will probably regret it but I was going to buy 85 shares of TQQQ the 3x long nasdaq etf but E trade talked me out of it. You get this long thing you have to acknowledge that says you know you're buying a leveraged ETF, they don't recommend holding overnight etc. by the time I'd got to where I could agree I chickened out.

 

[Folster]

The bond market is dragging the Fed kicking and screaming.

 

[Russ Smith]

I will probably regret it but I was going to buy 85 shares of TQQQ the 3x long nasdaq etf but E trade talked me out of it. You get this long thing you have to acknowledge that says you know you're buying a leveraged ETF, they don't recommend holding overnight etc. by the time I'd got to where I could agree I chickened out.

I wound up buying 3 more shares of TSLA. Decided to be safer rather than go for the home run 1 day trade with a 3X etf in case this continues tomorrow.

Ironically executed with 5 minutes left in trading day and then I got a note from Motley Fool that their new recommendation is to buy TSLA.

 

[elindholm]

Ironically executed with 5 minutes left in trading day and then I got a note from Motley Fool that their new recommendation is to buy TSLA.

Which means they're shorting it.

 

[dscher]

Which means they're shorting it.

Exactly. I'm in a big brokerage name and am holding every sector short. The only sector being charged a short borrowing expense (charged when demand exceeds supply) is currently XLU. It's almost a leading indicator that rates are going down soon. Everyone thinks utilities will tank right now. That's a helluva contrarian signal IMO... I'll be looking for a bottom when I'm routinely getting that SB charge on XLK.

 

[Russ Smith]

Which means they're shorting it.

I've actually done quite well with Motley Fool in the past but to be fair when the whole market is going up them picking stocks that go up is not that hard. They are the ones who gave me the buy Shopify. Unfortuanately I sold it way too early because of a short that said it was a scam and have never forgiven myself. But the original buy recommendation was MF Stock Advisor.

I haven't checked their recommendations in awhile because the market is so volatile right now.

 

[elindholm]

I've actually done quite well with Motley Fool in the past but to be fair when the whole market is going up them picking stocks that go up is not that hard. They are the ones who gave me the buy Shopify. Unfortuanately I sold it way too early because of a short that said it was a scam and have never forgiven myself. But the original buy recommendation was MF Stock Advisor.

I haven't checked their recommendations in awhile because the market is so volatile right now.

Yeah, I was joking. I think Fool is probably fairly legitimate, but it's not clear how much they have an "institutional" view versus a bunch of writers who may or may not agree with one another. I use Morningstar, which has the advantage of being internally consistent, but the disadvantage that their evaluations tend to be blind to popular sentiment. You can argue all you want that a particular stock is a good buy, but if there's never a critical mass of interest in it, it's not going to go up.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah, I was joking. I think Fool is probably fairly legitimate, but it's not clear how much they have an "institutional" view versus a bunch of writers who may or may not agree with one another. I use Morningstar, which has the advantage of being internally consistent, but the disadvantage that their evaluations tend to be blind to popular sentiment. You can argue all you want that a particular stock is a good buy, but if there's never a critical mass of interest in it, it's not going to go up.

Agreed. They have 2 guys who make the Stock predictions that I get. There are tons of others but I ignore them.

They have done quite well over the last 10 years but then the whole market has I don't really have a baseline for how they perform in a down market

 

[Folster]

Agreed. They have 2 guys who make the Stock predictions that I get. There are tons of others but I ignore them.

They have done quite well over the last 10 years but then the whole market has I don't really have a baseline for how they perform in a down market

Were either of them telling readers to buy energy stocks 6-12 months ago?

 

[Russ Smith]

Were either of them telling readers to buy energy stocks 6-12 months ago?

I don't think so they seem to largely like tech stocks. Which obviously right now looks pretty bad with Nasdaq cratering again

 

[elindholm]

Were either of them telling readers to buy energy stocks 6-12 months ago?

Energy and utilities have fared reasonably well, all things considered. I'm spread thin everywhere, because that's what I do, but EIX, ENB, ORA, and TEF have all eased a little of the pain. Of course my best performer on the year is LMT.

 

[Folster]

Energy and utilities have fared reasonably well, all things considered. I'm spread thin everywhere, because that's what I do, but EIX, ENB, ORA, and TEF have all eased a little of the pain. Of course my best performer on the year is LMT.

I'm still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 YTD and doing even better against the broader Russell 3000. That's about as much as I can hope for considering the climate.

 

[BigRedRage]

how's your 200 and 1/2 k?

 

[Folster]

how's your 200 and 1/2 k?

Haha. Doing about the same. Down 10.19% YTD but that does not include today so probably subtract another 3.5%

 

[dscher]

how's your 200 and 1/2 k?

Some bond protection might keep it a 300 and 2/3rd k. Numbers don't play out as well. Lol

 

[BigRedRage]

Open door is up 13% after hours. Wth.

 

[elindholm]

Open door is up 13% after hours. Wth.

Good earnings report after the close. Even so, I deeply regret ever getting the stock. Probably what will happen is that I'll hold it another few years, finally give up and dump it at a loss, and rue not only the initial investment but not having the conviction to move on sooner.

 

[dscher]

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CNBC said today this is the worst YTD performance for a 60/40 since 2008..

 

[Folster]

Good earnings report after the close. Even so, I deeply regret ever getting the stock. Probably what will happen is that I'll hold it another few years, finally give up and dump it at a loss, and rue not only the initial investment but not having the conviction to move on sooner.

You could always sell it tomorrow. I doubt it holds the gains and it certainly isn't reaching your purchase price any time soon. I don't like realizing a loss, but you could always buy it back after 30 days at a potentially lower price if you still like them long term. If you still have long term conviction then, probably best to hold, but if your thesis regarding their business and/or the housing market has changed then consider parting ways. It's easy for me to say when it's not my money though. I have some OPEN's in my portfolio that I cuss at every day as well.

 

[Folster]

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CNBC said today this is the worst YTD performance for a 60/40 since 2008..

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[dscher]

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I thankfully and luckily got out of my TLT long in my 401k just in time. I definitely didn't see this liquidation coming to treasuries coming on so hot like this... But, it's so rapid that I can't see how's it's sustainable from a chart or dollar perspective. Dollar parabolic up, long bond parabolic down doesn't happen on a frequent basis over time..