The Market 2022-2023-2024

[Folster]

GOOG just hit my price target so I bought a share for just below $2050.

 

[Folster]

So who's buying the dip on SNAP? Not me!

Pass. They've never turned a profit.

 

[Folster]

GOOG just hit my price target so I bought a share for just below $2050.

I damn near called the day's bottom for GOOG today. I realize the likelihood I actually called their overall bottom is pretty low, and there will probably be a sell-off at market close that makes this post look foolish. But it's about the small victories right now.

 

[juza76]

OT
On the thread about politics, shooting mass,i cant find the section anymore, searching my previous messages i had found the thread but cant write anymore
"u have insufficient privileges to reply here"
Wow

 

[Folster]

OT
On the thread about politics, shooting mass,i cant find the section anymore, searching my previous messages i had found the thread but cant write anymore
"u have insufficient privileges to reply here"
Wow

There is a thread in the announcements forum about P&R being quarantined.

 

[juza76]

Just trying to figure out which of these two companies could be a good investment moving forward
Geovax labs
Or
Emergent Biosolutions

 

[Folster]

Just trying to figure out which of these two companies could be a good investment moving forward
Geovax labs
Or
Emergent Biosolutions
Guess both are working on monkeypox vaccine

Biotechs and pharmaceuticals are difficult to value due to the nature of the industry. You really have to know the industry and understand the drugs/treatments they are working on. Success hinges on FDA approval after years of work and tons of investment. If approved they have a limited time to make money before the patent expires and the drug can be made as a generic. You have to factor in the failure rate and lawsuits from side effects. Most of these small biotechs will likely get acquired by a big pharmaceutical if they are working on something with potential as well.

With that said. GOVX is unprofitable. You should read their 10K, but they look like a scratcher ticket at this point. EBS is profitable with a low PE so that may suggest they don't have a lot of potential in their pipe but have something steady now.

Regardless. You should really have a good understanding of what they do and what their prospects are.

 

[juza76]

Biotechs and pharmaceuticals are difficult to value due to the nature of the industry. You really have to know the industry and understand the drugs/treatments they are working on. Success hinges on FDA approval after years of work and tons of investment. If approved they have a limited time to make money before the patent expires and the drug can be made as a generic. You have to factor in the failure rate and lawsuits from side effects. Most of these small biotechs will likely get acquired by a big pharmaceutical if they are working on something with potential as well.

With that said. GOVX is unprofitable. You should read their 10K, but they look like a scratcher ticket at this point. EBS is profitable with a low PE so that may suggest they don't have a lot of potential in their pipe but have something steady now.

Regardless. You should really have a good understanding of what they do and what their prospects are.

Yeah pharmaceutical companies on nasdaq is like a lottery, not worth the risk
Gas companies how they are at now?
In Italy some of them have a positive trend

 

[Russ Smith]

I think your way in the minority. I honestly can’t think of one person I know who thinks it’s cool Elon or Bezos are doing the space thing.

I don’t believe in Tesla because I think it’s a crap product it just happens to kind of be first. They rank dead last in quality year in and year out. The truck market is by far the most loyal market of vehicle buyers. Truck guys aren’t going to buy it. The big auto makers are entering the market hard and I think you’ll see an Elon backlash here the more he keeps opening his mouth.

To me it’s more style than substance

But what would a margin call on his Tesla loan mean for him

Like the tweet says it means he has to sell Space X stock to cover the call. he can't sell more TSLA or borrow more that will make the price go down more. The issue is Space X is NOT public, it's private so he's selling stock on a private market which generally speaking isn't as good for the seller because people selling private stock generally are doing it because they have to.

Selling Space X stock won't harm TSLA stock, but it won't help either.

 

[Russ Smith]

I can see a world where they tank. The big auto makers are going to hit the electric market hard with much better cars than what Tesla can produce.

I can see an Elon backlash the more he opens his mouth.

I have 8 shares of TSLA I bought in the 870 to 880 range a few weeks ago full disclosure.

The advantage TSLA has in cars is the tech, not the "car". People I know say TSLA's battery technology is well ahead of the other guys. Maybe they will have caught up but the big manufacturers that is their problem they don't have the battery tech. I think Lucid does, and Rivian uses the same type of batteries TSLA does, same cells that is, Lucid uses different ones that are higher rated but have less track record.

All the engineers I know rave about the tech on TSLA, and they all say Lucid looks even better it's just much earlier in the game for them. Rivian nobody is really sure I think there's this concern that "real" truck guys won't buy an electric one. I sure as hell would.

I think one thing Musk really needs and I think it has a lot to do with why he "really" moved to Texas, is there are still multiple states who don't allow the Tesla model of direct selling to customers, that includes Texas. I think Musk believes by moving to Texas he'll have leverage to get that changed, which will open him up to sell to more states. The issue is, right now the problem is inventory to deliver not demand.

 

[Russ Smith]

Yeah and they are still a pretty small automaker compared to the others.

The thing is though the market doesn't see Tesla as an auto maker they see them as a tech company

 

[Folster]

The thing is though the market doesn't see Tesla as an auto maker they see them as a tech company

The problem now is that long duration equity trades now have a cost. When interest rates are zero investors can wait for TSLA to become more than an automaker, but when they are 3-4% or more there is now an opportunity cost to waiting for TSLA or for some other high growth tech company to become profitable.

 

[Russ Smith]

Was there any response from TSLA to the story out last week that a big "whale" was asking them to do a huge buyback to help the stock price? They asked Musk and TSLA to buyback up to 15 billion dollars of stock due to the huge decline, 5 billion this year and 10 next.

 

[BigRedRage]

I removed P&R from my watched forums yesterday so had no idea. Done with that hate filled place.

 

[BigRedRage]

I have 8 shares of TSLA I bought in the 870 to 880 range a few weeks ago full disclosure.

The advantage TSLA has in cars is the tech, not the "car". People I know say TSLA's battery technology is well ahead of the other guys. Maybe they will have caught up but the big manufacturers that is their problem they don't have the battery tech. I think Lucid does, and Rivian uses the same type of batteries TSLA does, same cells that is, Lucid uses different ones that are higher rated but have less track record.

All the engineers I know rave about the tech on TSLA, and they all say Lucid looks even better it's just much earlier in the game for them. Rivian nobody is really sure I think there's this concern that "real" truck guys won't buy an electric one. I sure as hell would.

I think one thing Musk really needs and I think it has a lot to do with why he "really" moved to Texas, is there are still multiple states who don't allow the Tesla model of direct selling to customers, that includes Texas. I think Musk believes by moving to Texas he'll have leverage to get that changed, which will open him up to sell to more states. The issue is, right now the problem is inventory to deliver not demand.

I think most all EV makers right now are targeting trying to get to scale 4680 batteries. You will have different quality 4680s but that is the holy grail at the moment. Most EV makes are still using 2170's.

 

[Russ Smith]

CBO says inflation has peaked, GDP is on the rise and by 2024 inflation will be 2%. I sure hope they are right. I guess that's why the markets closed up they liked the CBO report.

 

[juza76]

The market is so damn emotional right now, they sell even before reading the quarterly earning reports (Nvidia)
A Snaps chat fall after bad results and drag down several companies stocks

 

[Folster]

The market is so damn emotional right now, they sell even before reading the quarterly earning reports (Nvidia)
A Snaps chat fall after bad results and drag down several companies stocks

It was irrational on the way up as well.

 

[juza76]

A question
Nvidia can be a good investment medium long term?

 

[Devilmaycare]

CBO says inflation has peaked, GDP is on the rise and by 2024 inflation will be 2%. I sure hope they are right. I guess that's why the markets closed up they liked the CBO report.

I hope they're right but I think they're being a bit optimistic. We're already in a recession, it's just not official until this quarter's numbers come in. The two bit leading indicators, the stock market and strip clubs, both show it. We all know the last couple months of the market. The clubs have been similar.

I'm getting nervous on it too because of the way the Fed has mismanaged the last decade or so. Interest rates were too low for too long and QE lasted too long. Now we're getting hit with inflation at the same time as a recession and they don't have the dials to turn like normal. Then add onto that the way consumer debt is soaring I'm getting scared of a double dip. Personally, I already started adjusting my spending and plans for the year plus and started prepping for a bumpy ride.

The potential food shortage that's going to be created due to the Russia-Ukraine war another huge question mark for me. We're probably not going hungry here but don't be surprised when it cost an arm and a leg to cook dinner. I'm already thinking of completely restocking my freezer and pantry like I did in Feb. 2020 before covid hit. It paid off then and the worst that will happen is I have a few month of really low grocery bills as eat through it in nothing happens.

 

[Devilmaycare]

A question
Nvidia can be a good investment medium long term?

Long term I think they could be. I'd be concerned with them in the short term though due to the supply chain and chip issues. They could had a rocky quarter or two until things start running smoother again.

This is speculation and reading the tea leaves on my part though and not advice to act on. More DD is needed on it.

 

[Russ Smith]

I hope they're right but I think they're being a bit optimistic. We're already in a recession, it's just not official until this quarter's numbers come in. The two bit leading indicators, the stock market and strip clubs, both show it. We all know the last couple months of the market. The clubs have been similar.

I'm getting nervous on it too because of the way the Fed has mismanaged the last decade or so. Interest rates were too low for too long and QE lasted too long. Now we're getting hit with inflation at the same time as a recession and they don't have the dials to turn like normal. Then add onto that the way consumer debt is soaring I'm getting scared of a double dip. Personally, I already started adjusting my spending and plans for the year plus and started prepping for a bumpy ride.

The potential food shortage that's going to be created due to the Russia-Ukraine war another huge question mark for me. We're probably not going hungry here but don't be surprised when it cost an arm and a leg to cook dinner. I'm already thinking of completely restocking my freezer and pantry like I did in Feb. 2020 before covid hit. It paid off then and the worst that will happen is I have a few month of really low grocery bills as eat through it in nothing happens.

Yep agree we are in a recession it just takes 2 quarters to be official but we are in one.

 

[Folster]

A question
Nvidia can be a good investment medium long term?

I've largely ignored it because it had a meteoric rise during the speculative bubble but it's down 50% now. I ran my DCF model and it still doesn't look attractive to me as a value investor until $110 at the earliest. I highly doubt it gets that low though. I calculated a fair value of $143-$169 depending on just how bullish you are on their growth in the next 5 years. But I'm just a moron behind a computer on an Arizona sports message board and my estimates are worth what you pay for them.

 

[Russ Smith]

Interesting to see if it has any impact on TSLA stock, probably not, but Musk announced late yesterday he's expiring all his loans against TSLA stock in the TWTR deal and will put up an additional 6.25 billion in equity financing to cover the amount. He didn't say how but it's assumed this is why he's been selling private shares of Space X. Also believed Larry Ellison and some others will kick in more money to help Musk raise the 6.25 billion.

 

[BigRedRage]

A question
Nvidia can be a good investment medium long term?

I'd deep dive into it. I'm not an advisor.

I personally like them for longer term. Crypto getting hammered has not helped. NVDA is already king in the gaming graphics catagory. Once crypto miners needed NVDA cards too, the business went bonkers. they have good leadership too.