The NBA is broken.

[AzStevenCal]

Ben Simmons

Jason Kidd. And that was before the NBA went 3 point crazy. It used to drive me nuts to watch him get to the rim and kick it out (and not always to the 3 point line either).

 

[Dback Jon]

Right, especially since there's no way that can be a percentage play. I've seen players pass up uncontested dunks in order to pass to a teammate behind the arc.

100% chance of 2 points vs 35% chance of 3.

Unless you are down 3 with 10 seconds, never a reason to.

 

[JCSunsfan]

This is the only thread I have read in a month. I agree. I am not interested in the NBA much anymore. If the Suns do well, I will watch because the Suns are just in my blood. But now I only really watch if they are playing well. That's why I haven't posted here in so long.

 

[Hoop Head]

This is the only thread I have read in a month. I agree. I am not interested in the NBA much anymore. If the Suns do well, I will watch because the Suns are just in my blood. But now I only really watch if they are playing well. That's why I haven't posted here in so long.

Your posts are missed. Always appreciated reading your takes. Can't force investment so I get it. Just thought I'd give you some credit and also say I hope you're doing well outside of sports fandom.

 

[Mainstreet]

This is the only thread I have read in a month. I agree. I am not interested in the NBA much anymore. If the Suns do well, I will watch because the Suns are just in my blood. But now I only really watch if they are playing well. That's why I haven't posted here in so long.

It's a long shot, but maybe the Suns catch a wave and ride it home to a championship.

 

[capologist]

I agree wholeheartedly that the game is bastardize now and hardly watchable.

But from an analytics standpoint, the 3 point attempts per game are 39.7. If you multiply that by the successful shooting percentage (38.3%) then by the points made per successful basket (3 points), you get 45.6153 points for those 39.7 attempts.

Now if you take those same 39.7 attempts and use the two point successful shooting percentage (54.6%) then by the points made per successful basket (2 points), you get 43.3524 points for those attempts.

So you get roughly 2.26 more points for those attempts by shooting threes instead of two point shots. Which is unfortunate.

You need to account for the fact that the guys shooting .546 from two are probably getting to the line more than the guys shooting .383 from three.

 

[Mainstreet]

You need to account for the fact that the guys shooting .546 from two are probably getting to the line more than the guys shooting .383 from three.

I don't have the stats, but not as much as you would think. More contact is allowed inside and the referees protect the three point shooters more, especially how they land.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I don't have the stats, but not as much as you would think. More contact is allowed inside and the referees protect the three point shooters more, especially how they land.

Probably accurate but I don't think anyone factors in the extra turnover risks of that corner 3. So often they step out of bounds or they travel trying to evade the closeout.

 

[Mainstreet]

Probably accurate but I don't think anyone factors in the extra turnover risks of that corner 3. So often they step out of bounds or they travel trying to evade the closeout.

Stepping out of bounds is a big one. I hadn't factored that into the equation.

However, so-called experts push the philosophy of taking more 3-point shots, so the math must favor it.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Stepping out of bounds is a big one. I hadn't factored that into the equation.

However, so-called experts push the philosophy of taking more 3-point shots, so the math must favor it.

Sure but do they factor in the extra turnovers? I don't know, maybe I focus too much on that and fail to recognize that turnovers might occur at a similar rate even when the corner 3 isn't involved but it doesn't seem that way.

 

[Mainstreet]

Sure but do they factor in the extra turnovers? I don't know, maybe I focus too much on that and fail to recognize that turnovers might occur at a similar rate even when the corner 3 isn't involved.

I would think so. These analytic guys are pretty thorough, but I'm not one of them.

It's hard enough for me to learn all the nuances of the new CBA.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I would think so. These analytic guys are pretty thorough, but I'm not one of them.

It's hard enough for me to learn all the nuances of the new CBA.

I can spell CBA, haven't gone much further than that though.

 

[Mainstreet]

I can spell CBA, haven't gone much further than that though.

Then you are a lot smarter than me.

NBA teams pay front office people lots of money to understand this stuff. I know just enough to be dangerous.

 

[Proximo]

100% chance of 2 points vs 35% chance of 3.

Unless you are down 3 with 10 seconds, never a reason to.

For an unguarded corner 3 it is much closer to 50%, and it's even better than that if you have numbers and a good chance at being able to get the offensive long rebound.

That said, the dunk is usually the better idea, unless you are behind double digits.

 

[Covert Rain]

The other factor is one and done. One and dones are more prevalent shooting 3 pointers than they are 2 pointers.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Jason Kidd. And that was before the NBA went 3 point crazy. It used to drive me nuts to watch him get to the rim and kick it out (and not always to the 3 point line either).

Yup. Same here.

 

[Suns_fan69]

Boris Diaw low-key held that mantle for a while too.

 

[capologist]

Stepping out of bounds is a big one. I hadn't factored that into the equation.

However, so-called experts push the philosophy of taking more 3-point shots, so the math must favor it.

So far this season the experts who count are choosing to take about 42% (a record) of their shots from 3, which suggests they see the two kinds of shots about on a par.

You miss the days when shooting far more twos was clearly better, and I can’t say I disagree.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I am all for this 3 point change as it allows the defense to sag off in the corners. Another option if they stay with the current line is to eliminate defensive 3 seconds and allow for a true zone to be played. The other major issue that they have been trying to fix to some extent is the constant player movement. This hurts teams from establishing a long term identity and pretty much eliminates real rivalries.

 

[95pro]

Just allow hand checking again.

 

[Lorenzo]

I am for the changes to the three point line. I would like to see the corner 3 eliminated and possibly have the arc pulled back. Superstar players could still shoot logo 3's. but the run of the mill catch and shoot guy that specializes in defense is not going to be able to camp in the corner or a specific spot and jack up 3 point shots all day. I'm ok with those being 2 point shots.

That said I still think the game is exciting in the playoffs, but watered down because of all the corner 3's and 3's in general.

 

[Hoop Head]

I am for the changes to the three point line. I would like to see the corner 3 eliminated and possibly have the arc pulled back. Superstar players could still shoot logo 3's. but the run of the mill catch and shoot guy that specializes in defense is not going to be able to camp in the corner or a specific spot and jack up 3 point shots all day. I'm ok with those being 2 point shots.

That said I still think the game is exciting in the playoffs, but watered down because of all the corner 3's and 3's in general.

That's a good point. I enjoyed the Wolves/Mavs WCF much more than Finals because it resembled basketball more as I know it than a 3pt shooting contest and the finals definitely represented the latter. The playoffs are generally great but they used to be great from the second round through the finals regularly. Now it seems it's a coin flip and if 2 teams that don't rely on their defense matchup it turns in All-Star weekend.

I think making all shooting fouls 3 FT, inside or out, could cause some to attack the basket more but I also worry about that moving the league more towards flopping and seeking contact. It's slowly recovering from the Harden era where he'd jump into guys while shooting deliberately just for the FT's. Harden wasn't alone in doing that but he definitely did it more than anyone else, and FT attempts per season back that up.

I'm not sure of a good solution to incentive inside play more outside of making dunks also worth 3. I'd probably be in favor of that. I wish the league would experiment more in the G-League. I know they use it now before implementing rules changes to test them but they could be more proactive in certain things, like seeking a better balance of 2's vs 3's a game.

 

[Proximo]

Probably accurate but I don't think anyone factors in the extra turnover risks of that corner 3. So often they step out of bounds or they travel trying to evade the closeout.

But the other thing not counted is the long rebounds. Much better chance of getting an offensive rebound from a 3.

 

[Proximo]

I am for the changes to the three point line. I would like to see the corner 3 eliminated and possibly have the arc pulled back. Superstar players could still shoot logo 3's. but the run of the mill catch and shoot guy that specializes in defense is not going to be able to camp in the corner or a specific spot and jack up 3 point shots all day. I'm ok with those being 2 point shots.

That said I still think the game is exciting in the playoffs, but watered down because of all the corner 3's and 3's in general.

There is no question 90's and 2000's NBA was a much better product.

The reason we have superstars is they do something spectacular - shooting a 3 isn't that spectacular unless you are Curry and can dribble in a circle and hurl it in a half second and it miraculously will go in. He's about the only one that can do that though.

 

[Dback Jon]

Just eliminate the 3 point line entirely

The whole idea that a basket is worth more just because it is further away is whacked