The offseason - The reality. The plan. And what would you do?

[Solar7]

We don't see eye-to-eye on everything here, but I do like that you painted the picture that we don't really have a ton of money to play with. A couple of posters have seemed to think we have all of the money in the world to revamp here. Being realistic is very important.

Were I to order our priorities, I'd say LT, RT, OLB, DT/DE, ILB, C, WR, S, RB.

Working to touch things in your order, here's what I'm thinking:

• Our FAs
  • Sign Humphries to the extension long term. I agree with the $14m. I don't love it, but I don't have another functional answer.
  • Murray - sign him to be a backup, but he has to be a backup. He cannot be our starter. If we try to claim he's the solution, I'm more likely than not going to be a darksider again.
  • Fitz... we have to bring him back if he's willing to come back. The only caveat I'd make here is if a guy like AJ Green is willing to come here. We do have to move on from Fitz at some point, but this team is bereft of veteran leadership and the kinds of players who are respected league wide.
  • Kenyan Drake - Walter/Mitch and I don't see eye to eye a lot, but this guy sets off every mental alarm possible. A total lack of production in his career, up until the time he can get paid, and then he takes every possible opportunity to reiterate how much he wants to get paid. Let someone else do it. I'll sign him for dirt cheap if no one else wants him.
  • Hundley - I'm fine with him, but kicking the tires on Case Keenum. I like Keenum slightly more to run KK's offense and have more sustained success if Kyler has a stretch of missed games, and the concept of a veteran that might have a coaching future teaching Kyler more from the bench, especially given their similar heights. Hundley soured me pretty badly with his play in Green Bay. But I won't be hurt about keeping him.
  • AQ - You and I totally agree. Seems like a good, gritty guy, but man, can we please upgrade to someone more powerful, or with a long term future? I don't think Cole or Gaillard will be useful, which is a huge indictment of Keim's bad drafting.
  • Zane - Bring him back.
  • Cooper - only back after the draft if we don't find a replacement.
  • Marsh - sign him, but please don't count on him.
  • Rest of the field - I'm bringing back Gunter if he's still cheap and unwanted elsewhere, but not paying any kind of a premium. I'm very open to signing Gilbert as insurance for Murray or a failure to acquire the right RT in the draft.
• FA
  • Spend the bulk of money at OLB/RT if Conklin is available. That's my #1 target, and I have tons of flexibility in the draft. There are good OLB candidates available (Dupree, Clowney, Beasley, etc).
  • By volume, I think DT/DE is the best spot to be a player this offseason and improve our team. We could sign 2-3 guys and not break the bank.
  • I'm rolling the dice at ILB with the goal of getting Simmons, if the rest of my plans pan out. Maybe sign a guy who would be a good backup/mediocre starter as insurance.

I don't have the time to finish up this whole thing with the draft myself, but there's a start!

 

[BigRedRage]

Nothing much to addm welcome to the board. Tell Mitch (Walter) we said hi.

Sent from my moto g(7) using Tapatalk

 

[DVontel]

Unless it’s an overpay, it would be real idiot to let Kenyan go.


Stupid Adam Gase clouding people’s minds.

 

[Solar7]

Unless it’s an overpay, it would be real idiot to let Kenyan go.


Stupid Adam Gase clouding people’s minds.

Hah, another area where we don't see eye to eye. We'll see.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Drake is totally going to depend on DJ. If we can't trade him I don't see how we can pay the RB position some 20 million dollars

 

[Jetstream Green]

You're massively assuming that any of those guys will even be as good as DJ, let alone Murray.

I'm not willing to gamble that. And that's assuming that any of those guys are even available when the Cardinals select.

My sentiments exactly, I am not putting a rookie in training at LT out there protecting Squeak as a day one starter. I want a vet, and DJ is probably the best one out there for free agency

 

[AZman5103]

Great Post! Well thought out and gives us a lot to think about. You still have about 11 million in cap space after the CC signing, and you have most of the depth spots filled, so would we have room for 1 more decent signing?

I hate the Trevathian signing. I agree it sounds like something Keim would do, but to me its such a waste of money. I would rather pay more for Schoebert and have someone halfway decent. Isiah Simmons is the real ILB gem, but there is no guarantee we land him.

My changes would be all draft related.

I would go Thomas at 8...he could start at RT and move over to left to replace DJ...because hopefully we franchise him.

I would go Raekwon Davis in the 2nd - we have not infused both line with blue chip talent.

I would also pick Madubuike in the 3rd - with our horrible D-Line and our best players being Calais and Peters (both older), you can't have enough young talent on the D-Line rotation

I would draft Uche in the 4th and hope he turns into someone that could be the #3 guy at OLB at some point. We roll with Chandler, Reddick, Marsh, and Uche for 2020.

5th round I'm looking for an interior O-lineman of Kugler's choice, and 7th round I'm going ST ace.

 

[TheCardFan]

My sentiments exactly, I am not putting a rookie in training at LT out there protecting Squeak as a day one starter. I want a vet, and DJ is probably the best one out there for free agency

Depends on who you pick. Ronnie Stanley was the 6th pick, played LT from day 1 (well), and is now in the Pro Bowl.

Bonus- Paying an All Pro 5m vs an average/injury riddled player 14m.

 

[TheCardFan]

Chubba Hubbard going back to school.

 

[football karma]

big picture:

offensively I start from the philosophy that putting K1 in the best position to be successful is job one: invest in the offensive line. it provides both pass protection and a running game. Further, a solid O line makes plugging in skill players much, much easier.

that means i resign DJ Humphries. Im prepared to take the risk that he is injury prone to get the reward of an ascending player who is 26 years old. Justin Murray gets tendered.

at #8, id prefer Thomas, Wills or .....Wirf, in that order ( fwiw: if Cards take Simmons, or Jeudy, or Lamb, or Brown -- its not my pref, but they are all going to be good players, so whatever..). Tackles are locked down with reasonable depth.

 

[Cardiac]

Fantastic thread with a ton of well thought opinions and points.

I'm all about the Oline and front 7 on D. I don't think our WR's limited us to 5 wins, to me it was the D and the Oline. Both improved towards the end of the season but obviously to be contenders we need upgrades in talent.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Depends on who you pick. Ronnie Stanley was the 6th pick, played LT from day 1 (well), and is now in the Pro Bowl.

Bonus- Paying an All Pro 5m vs an average/injury riddled player 14m.

But youuuuuuuuuu don't knooooowww if the drafted guy is going to be a all pro, and you do not risk your young QB in a crucial year which can make or break him to that... do you, hmm

 

[TheCardFan]

But youuuuuuuuuu don't knooooowww if the drafted guy is going to be a all pro, and you do not risk your young QB in a crucial year which can make or break him to that... do you, hmm

I know DJ isn't an All Pro. I trust Kugler can do better.

 

[GuernseyCard]

I know DJ isn't an All Pro. I trust Kugler can do better.

I can live with someone, none All Pro, who gives up 2 sacks in over 1000 snaps.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I know DJ isn't an All Pro. I trust Kugler can do better.

But you do not even know if the rookie is a guy you can count on to be average, regardless of Kugler because a guy's character is something you still cannot read going into a draft no matter how well the interview is. I do not have a problem drafting a OT, a OT to eventually take over DJ's spot if he cannot prove to stay healthy and perform similarly with a franchise tag, because then you have insurance

 

[BritCard]

I just can’t pass on Simmons if he’s is there. Simmons will be around a lot longer than VJ May be.
I can see why you can’t pass on Becton . I agree. Don’t think he will be there.

simmons solves our ILB need and also allows versatility in certain situations. It also helps balance out the cap for linebackers. If we can snag OLB Jordan Jenkins suddenly our LB corp is top notch.

CC would be fantastic for this defense. Those 3 additions would give us instant return on our money.

To be honest I wouldn't pass on him either but the article demonstrates how difficult this off season is going to be.

I constructed the off season using the kind of logic that most GM's would use but also particularly what Keim might do based on what we know about his past drafts. Lineback, DI and EDGE are all strong FA groups, but we can't realistically afford all 3. Linebacker should be the cheapest of the 3 so thats a given, and the draft is weak. You can't rely on Simmon being there at 8 or Murray being there at 40. SO I'm pretty certain we tackle LB in FA.

That leaves us with a choice between DI and OLB as the other big money FA signing. I personally don't think we can afford any of them.

Fowler, Barrett, Golden, Dupree, Judon, McPhee etc are all going to get paid more than we can afford. CJ is on $20m, we can't have $32m+ in starting OLB's.

Other cheaper options would be Jordan Jenkins, Mario Addison (who at 32 had a career year moving to 3-4 OLB) and Carl Nassib, who I think might make a better OLB than DE. So they could go that way. But if the options are any of those guys or Calais Campbell there's only 1 option.

So if Keim goes they way I think he's going to go (resign Hump and AQ) then he's painting himself into a corner when it comes to FA and thus painting himself into a corner when it comes to the draft. Because I can't see where a starting OLB is coming from right now if not the draft and the guys in round 2 I think are too rough to start right away.

I wouldn't do any of this.

I would let Hump walk, I would let AQ walk. That's $20m more right away in FA. You can have your OLB, LB and DI starters sown up in FA.

I would draft a tackle at #8. I don't mind which I like all 3.

If Becton was there at #40 (which I highly doubt) I would take him too because two good young tackles on cheap deals is never a bad thing. If not I'd take Raekwon Davis to learn and take over from Calais eventually.

In the 3rd I would take an OLB to rotate and learn behind CJ and Golden/Judon/Barrett.

For me the path to a much better roster is letting Hump and AQ go. It's a no brainer really. Neither are great. Both can be replaced in the draft or by players we already have. Which gives us much more money to rebuild the defense.

 

[BritCard]

Great Post! Well thought out and gives us a lot to think about. You still have about 11 million in cap space after the CC signing, and you have most of the depth spots filled, so would we have room for 1 more decent signing?

I hate the Trevathian signing. I agree it sounds like something Keim would do, but to me its such a waste of money. I would rather pay more for Schoebert and have someone halfway decent. Isiah Simmons is the real ILB gem, but there is no guarantee we land him.

My changes would be all draft related.

I would go Thomas at 8...he could start at RT and move over to left to replace DJ...because hopefully we franchise him.

I would go Raekwon Davis in the 2nd - we have not infused both line with blue chip talent.

I would also pick Madubuike in the 3rd - with our horrible D-Line and our best players being Calais and Peters (both older), you can't have enough young talent on the D-Line rotation

I would draft Uche in the 4th and hope he turns into someone that could be the #3 guy at OLB at some point. We roll with Chandler, Reddick, Marsh, and Uche for 2020.

5th round I'm looking for an interior O-lineman of Kugler's choice, and 7th round I'm going ST ace.

We went into last season with about $7.5m in cap. You need $7-8m for injury replacements, late pickups, guys that flit on and off the roster and PS etc

So I'm afraid that $11m is more like $3m. It's going to get you some depth guy.

 

[BritCard]

I know DJ isn't an All Pro. I trust Kugler can do better.

This.

Here's the thing. DJ isn't good and sacks aren't an accurate measure of talent. The worst tackles in the league give up about 6 sacks in a season. So 2 isn't some great measure anyway.

DJ is always going to be average. This was the 1st season he stayed healthy, and it was a contract year when he's trying his hardest and he had a 61 grade. And that's his ballpark, he's always going to be a guy that grades between 60 and 69.9 over a season. He's always going to be the 17th to 25th best tackle in the league. If he's healthy.

And that last point is just as big a part of the equation. He's had 1 healthy season out of 4. You can't rely on that. If I'm paying a LT top 4 LT money I at least want to know he is always going to be available. I could like with average and consistent.

This roster is too bad to be paying top 4 money for top 20 talent.

All 3 of the Left tackles in the top 10 projections could come in and be better than Hump right away because all 3 are reliable. None have injury histories. Thomas has 42 straight starts at LT. That's some experience.

Might you get some drop off? Sure. But if you take the top 8 tackles taken in the 2019 draft (excluding the top LT who was out injured) their PFF grade averages in the high 50's. It's not like there is going to be a huge drop off between Hump and a rookie, because Hump isn't very good.

I'd rather save the $14m from Hump and role the dice on a rookie LT. Knowing that at worse there might be a slight drop off, but also they might be better and over time they will certainly be better and cheaper.

But I'm wasting my breath, because Keim is almost certainly going to resign Hump for too much money.

 

[Chopper0080]

This.

Here's the thing. DJ isn't good and sacks aren't an accurate measure of talent. The worst tackles in the league give up about 6 sacks in a season. So 2 isn't some great measure anyway.

DJ is always going to be average. This was the 1st season he stayed healthy, and it was a contract year when he's trying his hardest and he had a 61 grade. And that's his ballpark, he's always going to be a guy that grades between 60 and 69.9 over a season. He's always going to be the 17th to 25th best tackle in the league. If he's healthy.

And that last point is just as big a part of the equation. He's had 1 healthy season out of 4. You can't rely on that. If I'm paying a LT top 4 LT money I at least want to know he is always going to be available. I could like with average and consistent.

This roster is too bad to be paying top 4 money for top 20 talent.

All 3 of the Left tackles in the top 10 projections could come in and be better than Hump right away because all 3 are reliable. None have injury histories. Thomas has 42 straight starts at LT. That's some experience.

Might you get some drop off? Sure. But if you take the top 8 tackles taken in the 2019 draft (excluding the top LT who was out injured) their PFF grade averages in the high 50's. It's not like there is going to be a huge drop off between Hump and a rookie, because Hump isn't very good.

I'd rather save the $14m from Hump and role the dice on a rookie LT. Knowing that at worse there might be a slight drop off, but also they might be better and over time they will certainly be better and cheaper.

But I'm wasting my breath, because Keim is almost certainly going to resign Hump for too much money.

I cant disagree more with this post.

You're worried about saving money when you have a QB on a rookie contract.

You want to move on from an average starting LT for the absolute unknown heading into your franchise QBs 2nd year.

You want to do all of this when you already have a hole at RT.

In the toughest division in football that has great defensive talent.

This is a great plan to ruin your young qb and get your hc and gm fired.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

[AZman5103]

I cant disagree more with this post.

You're worried about saving money when you have a QB on a rookie contract.

You want to move on from an average starting LT for the absolute unknown heading into your franchise QBs 2nd year.

You want to do all of this when you already have a hole at RT.

In the toughest division in football that has great defensive talent.

This is a great plan to ruin your young qb and get your hc and gm fired.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

I disagree. Players move on. Humphries is an UFA....so let him test the market. If someone else is willing to pay him 14+ million per year then let him go. I think its more realistic the market sets his price at 9-10 million per year. According to reports we have offered him 11...and he said no.

I would not want to go into the draft saying we HAVE to draft a LT in round 1...because that is when you end up with a lesser player, but if Thomas is there he is an upgrade in talent. If we end up with a LT prospect in round 2 or 3, then we could bring in a vet at around 8 million per year for a year or two while the rookie develops. I really don't think there would be much drop off between Humphries and anyone else.

 

[Solar7]

I disagree. Players move on. Humphries is an UFA....so let him test the market. If someone else is willing to pay him 14+ million per year then let him go. I think its more realistic the market sets his price at 9-10 million per year. According to reports we have offered him 11...and he said no.

I would not want to go into the draft saying we HAVE to draft a LT in round 1...because that is when you end up with a lesser player, but if Thomas is there he is an upgrade in talent. If we end up with a LT prospect in round 2 or 3, then we could bring in a vet at around 8 million per year for a year or two while the rookie develops. I really don't think there would be much drop off between Humphries and anyone else.

Referencing back to the title of the thread though... you have to think of the reality. There's not starting talent out there for $8m. The cupboard is almost bare: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/left-tackle/

We can't just conjure up mid-tier FAs. And keep in mind, we're not the only team looking for an LT. The Browns need an upgrade badly and will likely move on from Greg Robinson.

 

[BritCard]

I cant disagree more with this post.

You're worried about saving money when you have a QB on a rookie contract.

You want to move on from an average starting LT for the absolute unknown heading into your franchise QBs 2nd year.

You want to do all of this when you already have a hole at RT.

In the toughest division in football that has great defensive talent.

This is a great plan to ruin your young qb and get your hc and gm fired.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

I'm not worried about saving money. I'm worried about spending top money on average talent.

You know how bad teams stay bad? By paying players top 5 money at their position when they are a top 20 talent. Look at it this way...

If Christian Kirk was a FA right now would you pay him $18,000,000? Because it's the same thing. You wouldn't do it with Kirk so why do it with Hump?

And all this is very much dependent on him being on the field. In 4 years he has played 13, 5, 9 and 16 games. He can't protect Kyler from the bench.

Wouldn't it be better to have a never injured, top 10, 42 game starter at LT such as Andrew Thomas who you can rely on and costs you $4.5m? Over a guy you know is going to be average if he starts but has a long injury history?

Maybe you get a little drop of in performance in Year one (although for a guy like Thomas I'd say it's 50/50 he might be better day 1) but long term he's going to spend his career protecting Kyler and be better than what we have. On the flip side the team can now afford a pass rusher opposite CJ so Kyler doesn't see his hard work get ripped to shreds every time our D hits the field.

 

[BritCard]

Referencing back to the title of the thread though... you have to think of the reality. There's not starting talent out there for $8m. The cupboard is almost bare: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/left-tackle/

We can't just conjure up mid-tier FAs. And keep in mind, we're not the only team looking for an LT. The Browns need an upgrade badly and will likely move on from Greg Robinson.

The cupboard is going to get restocked some. There will be a whole bunch of post draft cuts and cap casualties.

For example, Cordy Glenn will almost certainly be available. Riley Reiff is another potential casualty.

 

[BritCard]

Epenesa has officially declared

 

[TheCardFan]

Jason Peters would be a very good 1 year stop gap. Same penalties as DJ but a much better player overall.