The offseason truth - no sugar coating

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by Wild Card
40 Yr:

*What* home-field advantage? You're talking about the Arizona Cardinals, playing in a half-empty Sun Devil Stadium, in front of a crowd wearing more of the other guys' colors than the home team's, right?

Maybe in September, when the Cards are presumably better acclimated than their opponents to triple-digit temps. In December, though, away games in SDS for teams like Carolina and Minnesota are like spring break.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, and say that the Cards are *capable* of splitting their division games. Search the archives, though, and tell me the last time a Cardinals team went 6-2 at home, as you've proposed.

Tell me what you find.
WC

<p>Wild Card---Have you been to any Cardinals home games? Check out the two end zones and the West side of the stadium. Notice all the red. We are there and we are loud. And don't think our players don't notice us. There are constants waves of appreciation from them and towel waving/arm waving when they want us to start making noise. When the Cards are in a game and making headway, it definetly becomes a home stadium and that held true last year for every game but the Oakland contest. Even a crowd of 20,000 can sound like a lot more when they are given something to cheer about.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>
09/07 @ 1:00 pm Lions W
09/14 1:00 pm Seahawks W
09/21 1:00 pm Green Bay L
09/28 @ noon Rams L
10/05 @ noon Cowboys W
10/12 1:15 pm Ravens L
10/19 @ open
10/26 2:05 pm Niners W
11/02 2:05 pm Bengals W
11/09 @ 1:00 pm Pittsburg L
11/16 @ 1:00 pm Browns W
11/23 2:05 pm Rams W
11/30 @ noon Bears W
12/07 @ 1:05 pm Niners L
12/14 2:15 pm Panthers W
12/21 @ 1:15 pm Seahawks L
12/28 2:05 pm Vikings W


Won - Loss Record 10 - 6 This is very doable. Split the series with division teams (all wins coming at home) and beat the teams you should be able to beat. Don't forget home field advantage.

beat the teams that should be beatable? you list the browns. they made the playoffs and nearly won a game. i know they've had some turnover, but this is the cards that finished 1-9. i don't think you can consider the browns a team the cards should beat. and no way we're splitting with all our division foes. 1-9 last year man! 1-9!!! and we're YOUNGER now.

god i wish i could think like you. i'm serious.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>Wild Card---Have you been to any Cardinals home games? Check out the two end zones and the West side of the stadium. Notice all the red. We are there and we are loud. And don't think our players don't notice us. There are constants waves of appreciation from them and towel waving/arm waving when they want us to start making noise. When the Cards are in a game and making headway, it definetly becomes a home stadium and that held true last year for every game but the Oakland contest. Even a crowd of 20,000 can sound like a lot more when they are given something to cheer about.

yo 40 - you're just plain wrong here. having been a season ticket holder in AZ for years i am WELL acquainted with the sounds and feels of SDS during a cards game. have you ever been to another stadium? SDS and the paltry 25,000 that show up is no comparison. now i'm not bagging on the fans that actually attend, 'cuz we can be crazed (when given the opp), but our miniscule numbers do NOT provide the cards with a homefield advantage. check out giants stadium, or a 'skins' game - THAT is homefield advantage.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Originally posted by Ouchie-Z-Clown
beat the teams that should be beatable? you list the browns. they made the playoffs and nearly won a game. i know they've had some turnover, but this is the cards that finished 1-9. i don't think you can consider the browns a team the cards should beat. and no way we're splitting with all our division foes. 1-9 last year man! 1-9!!! and we're YOUNGER now.

god i wish i could think like you. i'm serious.

Exactly, we went 1-9 with Jake leading a bunch of backups. Imagine what we can do if this team is actually healthy. Not to mention with no more Jake mistakes.

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by MadCardDisease
Exactly, we went 1-9 with Jake leading a bunch of backups. Imagine what we can do if this team is actually healthy. Not to mention with no more Jake mistakes.

MCD:

Imagine what the Rams can do with Warner healthy, and Kyle Turley added to the o-line. Imagine what the Seahawks can do if Hasselbeck plays all season the way he closed out last year. And so on.

Be consistent. Best-case scenarios for everyone. Tell me who the Cards are gonna beat.

WC

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Originally posted by MadCardDisease
Exactly, we went 1-9 with Jake leading a bunch of backups. Imagine what we can do if this team is actually healthy. Not to mention with no more Jake mistakes.

what, 2-8? 3-7?!?

 

[Sandan]

No offense taken.

While I would be thrilled to see it, I was actually was using the probowl as a way of saying Emmit has a very good year.

I have no expectation either way but the two options are still valid. I am not subscribing to either

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>Wild Card---Have you been to any Cardinals home games?... When the Cards are in a game and making headway, it definetly becomes a home stadium and that held true last year for every game but the Oakland contest. Even a crowd of 20,000 can sound like a lot more when they are given something to cheer about.

40 Yr:

Yes, I have. My company has a suite at SDS, and I'm in the rotation for those seats. From there, the stadium looks half-empty most weeks, with the occupied seats/ benches split 50/50 between red and the other guys' colors.

Tell me the last time an opposing QB had to step back from center, because the wideouts couldn't hear the signal call. Tell me the last time you heard that the other team practiced with loudspeakers to prepare for the noise level at Sun Devil Stadium.

I know what that's like. I lived in Seattle, and attended Seahawks games at the old Kingdome, back in the day when those crowds made the NFL institute the delay-of-game penalty for crowd noise. I can still remember Rufus Porter and Eugene Robinson trying to quiet us down before the Hawks drew a flag.

No one dreads playing at Sun Devil, once the heat breaks. Heck, the Cowboys used to refer to it as an extra home game. Basing Cardinals won-loss predictions on a "home-field advantage" is simply a mistake.

WC

 

[SECTION 11]

you're preaching to the choir, WC.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Originally posted by Wild Card
MCD:

Imagine what the Rams can do with Warner healthy, and Kyle Turley added to the o-line. Imagine what the Seahawks can do if Hasselbeck plays all season the way he closed out last year. And so on.

Be consistent. Best-case scenarios for everyone. Tell me who the Cards are gonna beat.

WC

I have no idea who the cardinals will beat this year. If the Cardinals say healthy I believe that they have a chance to win any game no matter who they are playing.

All I can give you is my prediction of an 7-9 season.

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by Wild Card
40 Yr:

Yes, I have. My company has a suite at SDS, and I'm in the rotation for those seats. From there, the stadium looks half-empty most weeks, with the occupied seats/ benches split 50/50 between red and the other guys' colors.

Tell me the last time an opposing QB had to step back from center, because the wideouts couldn't hear the signal call. Tell me the last time you heard that the other team practiced with loudspeakers to prepare for the noise level at Sun Devil Stadium.

I know what that's like. I lived in Seattle, and attended Seahawks games at the old Kingdome, back in the day when those crowds made the NFL institute the delay-of-game penalty for crowd noise. I can still remember Rufus Porter and Eugene Robinson trying to quiet us down before the Hawks drew a flag.

No one dreads playing at Sun Devil, once the heat breaks. Heck, the Cowboys used to refer to it as an extra home game. Basing Cardinals won-loss predictions on a "home-field advantage" is simply a mistake.

WC

<p>I'll tell you what Wild Card----sit in the seats where the real fans sit. Not in some isolated, air conditioned suite with a group of people who only come because the seats and booze are free. Get out with the crowd and listen to the fans screaming and hollering obcenities, spilling beer, and really rooting for their team. It's inspiring and while maybe it isn't like the Seahawks noise, it still gets our team inspired. Come to think of it, I don't remember a lot of noise at Seahawk stadium last year when the Cards played them, but maybe you can't hear that on TV.

 

[Tangodnzr]

Originally posted by Skkorpion
Behind the scenes, many of us who write for ASFN wonder if we sound too homerish or too positive. In particular, Ed Burmila frets that we write too much fluff. Is he right?

Maybe we have been too enthusiastic this offseason. We are more pragmatic and realistic in our expectations than many of you know. I was going to write an article on my true expectations but have instead decided it would be better to start a thread on this.

I would very much like intelligent season analysis from all, including all our writers. I will delete any post that consists of "all our players suck" or "we are so talented, we could go 19-0."

If you have an opinion, make your argument. I'll go first.

Please - start with the bad or what concerns you, then with the strong points you see, and finish with a prediction range.

My opinion here has certainly never been any big secret. I have ALWAYS maintained that there is no such thing as being "too positive". I have taken a lot of heat because of that at times. But I can honestly say that I am now enjoying reading many of the posts recently more than in the past. I don't care what the reason is. What you think is what tends to be!!!
Think positive and postive things find a way of happening.
Think negative and negative things find a way of happening.

This board didn't gain popularity because of the negativity of anyone posting here. It was a result of the POSITVE things, happening. . . the intelligent and humane viewpoints expressed by some people here, regardless of what the specific viewpoint was. . .it grew because of You and Jo Sparks, and Jim Omohundro, and anyone else who goes to the locker room, the pracitice field, talks to the coaches, players, and people in the organization and then relays their thoughts back here.
....and intelligent, knowledgable posters posting their knowledge and opinions in a rational and adult manner.

In business I never worried about making mistakes, because I always knew I could count on human nature to provide someone who would always be more than willing to point out my mistakes to me. The regrettable truth is that more people generally tend to think negative than positive, and if there's a shortage of anything....it's people with positive attitudes who are willing to stand up to all the other negativity.

You, and everyone else. (Yes, you too Ian. ;>)
are doing a great job. Keep it up.....you are NOT too positive. And you can rest assured that there will always be someone here to champion the cause of negativity, no matter what you do.

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by MadCardDisease
I have no idea who the cardinals will beat this year. If the Cardinals say healthy I believe that they have a chance to win any game no matter who they are playing.

All I can give you is my prediction of an 7-9 season.

MCD:

And I agree. Scroll back a bit, and you'll see that I called 7-9 too, based on projecting game outcomes. As you've said, the big variable for the Cardinals will be team health, particularly at QB.

I still challenge the double-digit predictors to find 10 or more wins on the Cards' schedule. If you apply consistent assumptions about injuries, player acquisitions, coaching changes, etc., I just can't see it (unless Emmitt discovers the Fountain of Youth, and Calvin Pace is the second coming of Bruce Smith).

WC

 

[SECTION 11]

Originally posted by Wild Card
I still challenge the double-digit predictors to find 10 or more wins on the Cards' schedule.

Here's ten wins:

Losses at the Rams, Steelers, Niners and Seattle.
Losses at home against the Packers and one of our NFC West foes.

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>I'll tell you what Wild Card----sit in the seats where the real fans sit. Not in some isolated, air conditioned suite with a group of people who only come because the seats and booze are free. Get out with the crowd and listen to the fans screaming and hollering obcenities, spilling beer, and really rooting for their team. It's inspiring...

40YF:

Don't kid yourself. There's plenty of screamed obscenities and beer being spilled in the suites.

I'm not disparaging the loyal Cardinals fans who come out and support their team. Far from it. I'm always amazed, however, by the number of snowbirds/ transplants/ unidentified others who show up in the other teams' colors, and often make as much noise as the Cards contingent. Heck, I've seen adjoining suites taken over by Eagles and Giants fans, partying at the Cards' expense.

For purposes of this discussion, the point is that, for visiting teams, Sun Devil is *not* a hostile environment in anything like the same league as an Oakland Coliseum, for instance. It's a well-maintained natural surface, with pleasant game-time temps (after mid-October), where offensive and defensive calls can be heard clearly, and few if any objects will be thrown at you from the stands.

Nice place to play. Little if any home field advantage. Non-factor in predicting the outcome of a particular game.

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
Here's ten wins:

Losses at the Rams, Steelers, Niners and Seattle.
Losses at home against the Packers and one of our NFC West foes.

S11:

At Cleveland, 11/16. (Speaking of home-field advantages... ) Did one of last year's playoff teams suddenly get a lot worse, when I wasn't looking? Sorry, I can't pick the Cards over the Browns, away, in November.

Unless Erickson *really* messes up the 49ers, or the Rams don't rebound the way I expect, I don't see the Cards beating either team, either time. I keep seeing Garcia and Warner/Bulger sitting calmly in the pocket, working through progressions, completing pass after pass...

I'll give you 8-8, though. What it'll take is December wins over both the Panthers and the Vikings, in Sun Devil.

It could happen.

WC

 

[40yearfan]

Wild Card---it's mighty easy for you to make the decision as to whether SDS is a home field advantage for the Cards. I guess along with you sitting in a suite, you also know how the players feel by osmosis. Home field advantage is decided by the players and coaches on the field and in a fan starved arena like the Cards play in, even a small amount of noise can get the players going and create an intense desire to win for the fans. The players and coaching staff are professionals and will play as such. The X factor is the crowd and the noise they make, regardless of the size of the crowd. These players are not stupid. They realize that a poor record relates to poor attendance, but they also see a hard core fan group that follows them through thick and thin and will back them 100% no matter what the outcome. Maybe the Cards X factor isn't as great as your Seattle team, but it is enough to inspire our athletes and they respond. <p>So in essence, I question your judgement that the Cards have no home field advantage and say you are not qualified to make that decision. Why don't we ask the players how they feel. <p> BTW---the Cards are gonna crush Seattle in their first meeting this year.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
Wild Card---it's mighty easy for you to make the decision as to whether SDS is a home field advantage for the Cards. I guess along with you sitting in a suite, you also know how the players feel by osmosis. Home field advantage is decided by the players and coaches on the field and in a fan starved arena like the Cards play in, even a small amount of noise can get the players going and create an intense desire to win for the fans. The players and coaching staff are professionals and will play as such. The X factor is the crowd and the noise they make, regardless of the size of the crowd. These players are not stupid. They realize that a poor record relates to poor attendance, but they also see a hard core fan group that follows them through thick and thin and will back them 100% no matter what the outcome. Maybe the Cards X factor isn't as great as your Seattle team, but it is enough to inspire our athletes and they respond. <p>So in essence, I question your judgement that the Cards have no home field advantage and say you are not qualified to make that decision. Why don't we ask the players how they feel. <p> BTW---the Cards are gonna crush Seattle in their first meeting this year.

There is no home field advantage for the Cards - I'm sorry - my father's been season ticket holder since 1988 and I went to every game until 1995 when I left for college and I still come back to catch at least three games a year - and i'll tell you this, THERE IS NO HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE! Oooh - we play in the heat - how many games has that actually won us? Look, the people on this board rule - we are all gluttons for punishment and we love it, but face facts our fan base is aboslutely pathetic.

Also - I don't have any links for this, but countless times players that have been on the team and left the team have said that it's hard playing in a stadium that is 1/3 full. Deny that if you want, but you know it's true. Home-Field advantage should equal wins - something this team in 15 years haven't been able to garner much of - so to say that we will magically have it this year just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[JeffGollin]

There is no home field advantage for the Cards
Actually there has been -

Maybe not in fan support, but opposing teams dread playing us early in the season because of the heat. Thing of it is, we'll lose this advantage when the new stadium is built, so we'd better ratchet up the fan support now while there's still time. (i.e. we'd better start winning consistently).

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by JeffGollin
There is no home field advantage for the Cards
Actually there has been -

Maybe not in fan support, but opposing teams dread playing us early in the season because of the heat. Thing of it is, we'll lose this advantage when the new stadium is built, so we'd better ratchet up the fan support now while there's still time. (i.e. we'd better start winning consistently).

Jeff - how many home openers have we won? Has that advantage bore out in wins?

 

[AZCB34]

Originally posted by JeffGollin
There is no home field advantage for the Cards
Actually there has been -

Maybe not in fan support, but opposing teams dread playing us early in the season because of the heat. Thing of it is, we'll lose this advantage when the new stadium is built, so we'd better ratchet up the fan support now while there's still time. (i.e. we'd better start winning consistently).

Except, the NFL has always handcuffed the Cards at the start of every season and had them start on the road and most times the first home game was a Sunday Nighter on ESPN to escape the sun-heat. Lambeau is OK is December but AZ isn't in September.

Added to that, teams have developed routines about hydrating themsleves and mentally preparing themselves before coming into AZ for the early games so the heat isn't as much of an issue any longer IMO. They worry about it until the ball is kicked off and then they just play the game.

I just don't see how the heat creates any advantage at this point and in a few years, it won't matter one bit.

IMO, true homefield advantage comes from a full stadium who is almost 100% behind the home team and is a disruptive force to opposing offenses. It is a fan environment where the fans loudness and enthusiasm energizes the the home team to seemingly play better.

Cheesebeef is right. Waaay too often players have left the Cards and inevitably mention their disappointment in playing before a 1/3 filled stadium. The only way to have a true homefield advantage is to win and win cnsistently over time. Then the stadium will be full and it will be loud.

 

[Tangodnzr]

OK...my thoughts:

Concerns:

Cornerback situation
This is the area I think I'm most concerned about. Will Starks be healthy and play to a consistantly high level? I like Barrett's attitude, run support, and hitting, etc. but I still think he leaves something to be desired on coverage, especially against some of our division foe's WR's. I still think he is a great nickel back, but I would like to see someone be able to take his starting spot. Hill has played well, but just lacks a step or so speed-wise. Rhinehart is OK, but I still haven't seen the consistancy out of him, I'd personally like. I think our CB's have been left on an island the last couple of years, and it would be difficult for anyone to look goodl, with our lack of pass rush, but I'm still a little nervous about this area.

Defensive line
I think this is an area to watch, and see what happens. I'm really not all that uncomfortable with the players we have right now. They may not yet be superstars, and may never be. I am interested to see how they play as the season progresses. Will Bell and Tanner provide sufficient anchor? Is Bryant going to start fulfilling his potential? Will Davis continue to improve?....likewise Johnson.
Is KVB 1000% again?

Defensive Strategy and play calling
I see this as a make or break year for Larry Marmie. Historically he has the reputation of a thinker and schemer. Yet last year some of the defensive play calling, etc. made me wonder just what is really going on. I know the Cards were able to use some smoke and mirrors at the beginning of the season but teams soon adjusted and the Cards didn't seem very able to counter, because of injury and talent level.
Will the play calling be a plus this year?


Offensive line health
I still have concerns about Clement's triceps...I'm hoping that is not a chronic injury.

Place kicking
Will Grammatica beat out Duncan? If Billy does, can he keep the kickoffs in bounds and get them past the 20 yard line?
If Duncan wins, will he be accurate enough?

Now for the good part:

Reasons for Optomism:

Offensive Line
I am encouraged with the knowledge that Shelton played last year as hurt as he was. My respect for him has really risen this past year. My expectation is that Shelton, Big, and Kendall should be basically OK, and hopefully Clement too. I'm looking forward to seeing these guys actually spend some extended time... all on the field at the same time. I see this as the backbone of the offense and I can't help but think that Emmitt and Shipp are really looking forward to running behind these guys, along with the addition of Hodgins.
I like the depth. I also like what I see as far as the competition for center. I am encouraged by the recent reports of Grace's development and leadership. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with him, Starkey and Garcia.


Running backs
I like our stable of "stallions" as Johnny Roland refers to all of them, not just Emmitt and Shipp. I was not overly excited at first about the signing of Smith, but as time has gone on, I find myself won over and having high expectations there. I think He and Shipp will work well together and compliment each other very well. I like all the rest too, should injuries necessitate their seeing much playing time. I like what I have seen Emmitt bring to the team so far. I'm exited here.

Wide Receivers
Count me among those who thinks our receivers will be just fine and surpise a few people. I am encouraged with Gilmore's progress, and I feel he will be our No. 1 guy, for a while at least.
I like what I see with Boldin. Likewise Johnson, McCaddley, Kasper, Poole and Soliday. I do think a lot of people seem to be maybe placing too high of expectations on McCaddley, at this point, and under estimating the talent of Gilmore.
I also think they all will benefit by the strength of the running game. No longer are the Cards going to have to depend on the Big Play ala Jake to Boston in order for this team to win. The runnng game is going to carry this team, and the receiving game will complement that and be more of the "gravy" so to speak. (or should I say chocolate topping).

QB situation
I was always a Jake fan, but I must admit, Blake has impressed me a lot so far. I like the skills he brings to the team, I think they do fit the personality of the rest of the team a little better. I also like the leadership and attitude he has displayed so far.
I'm not as concerned about his going down as some others appear to be. I certainly don't want to see that happen, but I don't think it will be a total disaster if Parsons or McCown are forced into some playing time. With this offensive line, Blake shouldn't be in too much of a high risk situation very often, and the young guys don't have to be all pro to hand off to Smith or Shipp or drop back for the pass if called to duty.


Overall Attitude and team chemistry
I like everything I'm seeing here. Team play. Commitment from everyone. Great attitudes and work ethics. It's infectuous. This team is going to be exciting to watch, no matter what happens. They will certainly come to play every day, and give us all more than our money's worth.

Scheduling
I do think they have a decent scedule. I think they will make a legitimate run at the division title. The Rams have as many or more questions than we do. Everything is not totally hunky dorey in Ramland right now. The wheels could fall off there anytime. The 49'ers are not a stable team right now. I see the change to Erickson as at least a temporary setback in continuity there...but there's other unsettling factors too. The Seahawks still have to show that they can stop another team.
...So I don't see anyone dominating this division, and in fact, see that Cards as having as good a chance as anyone to come out on top.

At the moment I'll say they could go 10-6.....
might go 7-9 on the downside...
and most likely 9-7.

I reserve the right to adjust that as the actual season nears and training camp and preseason are history.

 

[Lex]

Hey, thank god we only have three more years of the home field advantage/disadvantage.

Home field advantage being the loyal heat stricken fans like me, that hang in there and duel the other teams fans...

Home field disadvantage being the perception of the other players in the league after playing here. Like Strahan said: "there were only two times in my life I thought I was going to die on the football field, and both times were in Arizona."

That kind of quote is what kills our free agency period, and our perception around the league.

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by cheesebeef
There is no home field advantage for the Cards - I'm sorry - my father's been season ticket holder since 1988 and I went to every game until 1995 when I left for college and I still come back to catch at least three games a year - and i'll tell you this, THERE IS NO HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE! Oooh - we play in the heat - how many games has that actually won us? Look, the people on this board rule - we are all gluttons for punishment and we love it, but face facts our fan base is aboslutely pathetic.

Also - I don't have any links for this, but countless times players that have been on the team and left the team have said that it's hard playing in a stadium that is 1/3 full. Deny that if you want, but you know it's true. Home-Field advantage should equal wins - something this team in 15 years haven't been able to garner much of - so to say that we will magically have it this year just doesn't make sense to me.

<p>Damn---I've either got to get another job or quit working. Work keeps interfering with my message board surfing!!!!<p>Cheesy---where you there when the Cardinals defeated Dallas and the fans tore down the goal posts? How about the games where we beat Seattle and the Giants last year? I think the fan response was great and gave the Cards the edge to win those games. I'm not saying it's going to magically appear this year. I'm saying it's there, the players know it's there and they react accordingly.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by AZCB34
Except, the NFL has always handcuffed the Cards at the start of every season and had them start on the road and most times the first home game was a Sunday Nighter on ESPN to escape the sun-heat. Lambeau is OK is December but AZ isn't in September.

Added to that, teams have developed routines about hydrating themsleves and mentally preparing themselves before coming into AZ for the early games so the heat isn't as much of an issue any longer IMO. They worry about it until the ball is kicked off and then they just play the game.

I just don't see how the heat creates any advantage at this point and in a few years, it won't matter one bit.

IMO, true homefield advantage comes from a full stadium who is almost 100% behind the home team and is a disruptive force to opposing offenses. It is a fan environment where the fans loudness and enthusiasm energizes the the home team to seemingly play better.

Cheesebeef is right. Waaay too often players have left the Cards and inevitably mention their disappointment in playing before a 1/3 filled stadium. The only way to have a true homefield advantage is to win and win cnsistently over time. Then the stadium will be full and it will be loud.

Was going to make that point about the night games. In home openers we are 3-11 (who did we open with last year? Was it tha Chargers? If so that makes us 3-12) - and considering we almost always only get one or two home games at the most during the first month, and the last couple days games - Atlanta, GB blasting us by a combined 51 points I believe, throws the heat argument out the window IMO.