The offseason truth - no sugar coating

[Cheesebeef]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
<p>Damn---I've either got to get another job or quit working. Work keeps interfering with my message board surfing!!!!<p>Cheesy---where you there when the Cardinals defeated Dallas and the fans tore down the goal posts? How about the games where we beat Seattle and the Giants last year? I think the fan response was great and gave the Cards the edge to win those games. I'm not saying it's going to magically appear this year. I'm saying it's there, the players know it's there and they react accordingly.

Let's see - I was on the field when we tore down the Goal posts - and that game was sold out - and do you know WHY? It was the freaking Cowboys and we were still outnumbered back in those days. Oh and that time we beat Seattle, I ahve a hard time believeing you were with the rest of your fans in SDS, considering that game was being played in SEATTLE! I'm not questioning the fans that do go, but 25,000 can only make so mucha of a difference.

The Chargers game - that was agame with home field advantage - all red - still have a chunk of the field from that day.

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by 40yearfan
Wild Card---Home field advantage is decided by the players and coaches on the field and in a fan starved arena like the Cards play in, even a small amount of noise can get the players going and create an intense desire to win for the fans... Maybe the Cards X factor isn't as great as your Seattle team, but it is enough to inspire our athletes and they respond... BTW---the Cards are gonna crush Seattle in their first meeting this year.

40YF:

You're absolutely right. Fan support can inspire a team and help them perform better. That's part of what makes up a home-field advantage.

But it's only *one* part. The other part is any DIS-advantage experienced by the visiting team. Some of that stuff's measurable. Can they hear their QB, calling the signals (imagine the roar of the Metrodome)? Is the crowd so loud and/or borderline violent that they're intimidating (think, "Raider Nation")? Are there inclement weather conditions (picture a December game in Buffalo or New England)? Is the playing surface so bad that players are afraid of blowing out a knee (remember Veteran Stadium)?

I'm sorry. Best efforts of the Cardinals fans to the contrary, I don't think most NFL teams are worried by the prospect of playing away games in Sun Devil. (At least, after mid-October.) If you disagree, and think that "home-field advantage" will be the difference in 3-4 wins for the Cards, that's your prerogative.

I should also tell you that they're not "my" Seattle team. I haven't followed the Seahawks closely since shortly after moving to the Phoenix area in late 1995. (I actually had great hopes for the Cards' acquisition of Seattle ex-Pro Bowler Dave Krieg, an old favorite of mine, who came here at about the same time. Oh, well.) Also, if you scroll back, you'll see that I *predicted* the Cards would beat the Seahawks in their first meeting this year. I think I said that the Hawks would "wilt" here on 9/14.

See, there's that home-field advantage.

WC

 

[SECTION 11]

Originally posted by Wild Card
At Cleveland, 11/16. (Speaking of home-field advantages... ) Did one of last year's playoff teams suddenly get a lot worse, when I wasn't looking? Sorry, I can't pick the Cards over the Browns, away, in November.

You must have missed that whole free agency thing that depleted their defense.


I'll give William Green six games before they put Lee Suggs in.

 

[40yearfan]

Originally posted by cheesebeef
Let's see - I was on the field when we tore down the Goal posts - and that game was sold out - and do you know WHY? It was the freaking Cowboys and we were still outnumbered back in those days. Oh and that time we beat Seattle, I ahve a hard time believeing you were with the rest of your fans in SDS, considering that game was being played in SEATTLE! I'm not questioning the fans that do go, but 25,000 can only make so mucha of a difference.

The Chargers game - that was agame with home field advantage - all red - still have a chunk of the field from that day.

<p>Sorry about the Seattle thing cheesy. Trying to do 2 things at once has it's disadvantages. More later when I have time.

 

[Wild Card]

Originally posted by SECTION 11
You must have missed that whole free agency thing that depleted (the Browns') defense.

I'll give William Green six games before they put Lee Suggs in.

S11:

Well, whaddaya know. I *wasn't* paying attention. Turns out the Browns' linebackers sound a lot like the Cardinals' WRs, at least according to James Black's profile on ESPN.com:

>>... the Browns have to be concerned with their linebacking corps. Five of their top six 'backers are first- or second-year players -- none of which were first-round draft picks. Gardner, who never lived up to expectations in Philadelphia, and Brant Boyer are the only ones with more than a year of NFL experience. <<

On the other hand, editor Roger Rotter makes similar arguments on Green's behalf to those being made for Marcel Shipp, regarding limited performance extrapolated to an entire season:

>>... Green improved... in the final seven weeks, rushing for 726 yards and five scores. During that stretch, Green averaged a hefty 24.6 carries and that bodes well for 2003. Significantly, his stats project to an impressive 1,659 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. Only three backs, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams and LaDainian Tomlinson, rushed for more last season.<<

My take? Both the Cards and the Browns have some unanswered questions going into camp. Both teams need new/ inexperienced players to contribute this year. Both teams have a skill position controversy, the Cards at RB and the Browns at QB.

But they're not starting from the same place. Last year, the Browns were a playoff team, and the Cards won five games. Since it's a November game in Cleveland, I'll take the Browns.

WC

 

[SECTION 11]

What do Shipp's numbers extrapolate out to over a full season?
I don't know, and I'm not going to spend the time doing it.

I know that he had three games with zero carries, one with 3, one with 6,two with 8 and still put up 834 yards and 6 TD's.

Gimme Shipp over Green any day of the week.
Gimme Holcomb over Blake, while you're at it.

 

[SECTION 11]

It's nice to have ya back, Wild Card.

 

[Chopper0080]

09/07 @ 1:00 pm Lions W
-I don't think that they will as dangerous at the begining of the season, but are a team that I wouldn't want to play in December.

09/14 1:00 pm Seahawks W
-I think we can beat the Seahawks because we will be healthy and should be able to run the ball. That being said, if we can't stop the run, we don't have a chance.

09/21 1:00 pm Green Bay L
-This is a game, but I'm not sure we will. The Packers are too use to winning and should still be healthy.

09/28 @ noon Rams L
-If the Rams are healthy we are just plain overmatched. The one thing that gives me hope here is that they have serious questions on defense.

10/05 @ noon Cowboys W
-This another team that I'm happy we play relatively early. Their defense will be tough score on, but I'm not sold on their offense.

10/12 1:15 pm Ravens L
-If we can stop the run this is a very winnable game. That coupled with the fact that this might be a Boller game (if the ravens start slow) almost make me put down a W. But, I'm not sure that we have someone ot match up with Heap and their defense is always tough.

10/19 @ open
-Thank god.

10/26 2:05 pm Niners W
-The only way this is a win is because we should be able to run the ball and will be coming off a bye week. TO is the key here as always.

11/02 2:05 pm Bengals W
-This will be a tough game that we might squeek out. Once again stopping the run is key. If Dillon gets going then Chad Johnson is very dangerous.

11/09 @ 1:00 pm Pittsburg L
-Just too much talent to compete with here.

11/16 @ 1:00 pm Browns W
-Their defense has been decimated and their offense could be in flux with the Holcomb-Couch thing. I picked them to finish last in their division.

11/23 2:05 pm Rams L
-as with the first game, they will have to be slowed down. What I fear here is they might get hot and if that is the case we just can't match up.

11/30 @ noon Bears W
-This team just looks horrible to me. Jauron might be gone by this time.

12/07 @ 1:05 pm Niners L
-In the possible heat of a division race they are always tough. I question our health and depth at this point. We lose close here.

12/14 2:15 pm Panthers L
-If Blake doesn't get killed in this game I will be happy. Their front four scares everybody and with Davis we will be lucky to survive this match up. Winnable, yes but could be a devastating game.

12/21 @ 1:15 pm Seahawks L
-I first had this as a win, but we won't be healthy after playing the Panthers.

12/28 2:05 pm Vikings L
-This team will surprise people, and I don't think that we can stop their offense. Winnable, but most likely a loss.

I see 7-9 but really can go either way. This is a soft schedule and it really depends on how we matchup in our division. seattle will be tough as will the Rams. San Fran has TO and that's really how it is. Sadly, I don't think that we will have the depth tat the end of the season to win many, but hopefully I am wrong.