The Rosen Problem

[scandalous_b]

When I watched the PFF review of Rosen they basically said his ceiling is around QB 15.

Seemed crazy right? Best he can do...is that right?

That is an across the board in every measurable stat 20 QB improvement.

They are absolutely correct.

Whoever said that (if quoted correctly) is absolutely stupid.

A player's ceiling refers to their absolute peak potential. You could have a 0.01% chance of reaching that potential - but it is still your ceiling.

If those guys think that, under absolutely perfect conditions, that the best Josh Rosen can ever become is QB15 - they're stupid.

I don't think you realize just how ridiculous of an opinion that is to have. Absolutely outrageous.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

It's Pro Football Focus. Based on their analytical models they say that Rosen will end up as a middling QB at best.

He was ranked at QB 37 last year. I should have included that.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

Yes that was his best game by far. He had a QBR of 79.3. He didn't throw a lot of yards but he managed the game well.

That is the guy I think we can win with.

I think it will be very nice to see what he can do with a competent coaching staff. A QB (and an entire team) can definitely be hampered by poor coaching and poor coaching decisions.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

One positive from taking Hundley is that no one will be calling for the backup QB no matter how bad it gets

 

[Brian in Mesa]

One positive from taking Hundley is that no one will be calling for the backup QB no matter how bad it gets

That depends. What are Hundley's advanced stats?

 

[Krangodnzr]

My question is who on this board really thinks Josh Rosen can be anything more than Matt Ryan as an NFL player? If you do, then you will likely be disappointed with his career. If you don't, then you are probably going to meet your expectations.

I see Matt Ryan or Eli Manning.

 

[cwamjn]

It's Pro Football Focus. Based on their analytical models they say that Rosen will end up as a middling QB at best.

He was ranked at QB 37 last year. I should have included that.

That sounds fair. I'd think best expectation is he turns out to be Jay Schroeder, and Jay Schroeder was always a middle of the pack stayings quarterback.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

And with such a good team. David Johnson had a crap year also. Maybe we need to draft a RB in the early rounds also.

David Johnson will be just fine. He was running in a Mike McCoy offense that is very vanilla & behind a horrible offensive line. We now have Sean Kugler coaching the off line, there's a reason he was the Steelers off line coach at one point. The Steelers always have one of the best off line coaches in the NFL, one of the reasons they always have a very good rushing attack. We also have their old RB coach now. I'm thinking DJ will make a huge comeback next yr if we add a few more pieces on the off line? Even when leftwich took over as the off coordinator, he wasn't allowed to use the offense he was taught by BA, Wilks made him stick to Mccoys playbook. Once again, vanilla stuff right up the middle. He did try a few things with DJ in the passing game but again, not too much different.

 

[scandalous_b]

It's Pro Football Focus. Based on their analytical models they say that Rosen will end up as a middling QB at best.

He was ranked at QB 37 last year. I should have included that.

I guarantee you their analytical models for forecasting future success are nowhere near as accurate as you are making them out to be.

Given all the variables at hand for projecting future NFL success - 13 games, or however many Rosen played last year, would very likely not be anywhere close to enough data to make a confident projection.

Also - if it were THAT easy to accurately project future NFL success - every NFL team would build & use one of those models. Those teams would also very rarely make a wrong decision. There's a reason why teams seem to be wrong more often than they are right.

 

[NJCardFan]

Hmm...the Washington Redskins had 9 different offensive linemen in 2018 compared to 11 different offensive linemen for the Cardinals. Dolphins had a bunch of injuries as well.

Again without paying this is the closest I could get


In these 3 situations where big injuries hit the offensive linemen here would be the QB rankings

Alex Smith
Ryan Tannehill
Brock Osweiler
Colt McCoy
Josh Rosen
Josh Johnson

You are so determined to hate Rosen that you refuse to see the forest for the trees. You have to look at the quality of offensive lineman we had here last year. Our line was mediocre at best and by the end of the year we had 3rd stringers in.


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[Krangodnzr]

It's Pro Football Focus. Based on their analytical models they say that Rosen will end up as a middling QB at best.

He was ranked at QB 37 last year. I should have included that.

PFF consistently downgrades players that are pretty good.

They have some pretty stupid takes from time to time.

Massive grain of salt.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

That depends. What are Hundley's advanced stats?

Spoiler, awful

 

[Chris_Sanders]

You are so determined to hate Rosen that you refuse to see the forest for the trees. You have to look at the quality of offensive lineman we had here last year. Our line was mediocre at best and by the end of the year we had 3rd stringers in.


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This isn't hate.

He didn't have the right talent around him last year so we had the worst record in football.

With the right talent around him we can win with him.

But you can say that with any average QB.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I guarantee you their analytical models for forecasting future success are nowhere near as accurate as you are making them out to be.

You asked a question "Who said this"

I answered your question

As far as predictability, do you know the one stat from college that is the biggest predictor of success?

If you do, do you take stock in it?

Would you draft someone who is poor in that catagory?

If you answers were:

Yes
Yes
No

Congratulations, you just made a predictive model that will be correct more likely than not.

 

[azsouthendzone]

You're 100% right. Rosen sucks. We should all just give up on him. Feel better now?

I do. It's funny how this board sways with the wind. Josh was called Overthrosen the last few games and now everyone thinks he is the second coming. It's so over the top.

 

[azsouthendzone]

My question is who on this board really thinks Josh Rosen can be anything more than Matt Ryan as an NFL player? If you do, then you will likely be disappointed with his career. If you don't, then you are probably going to meet your expectations.

More than Matt Ryan? If he was Matt Ryan 2.0 that would blow away my expectations.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

PFF consistently downgrades players that are pretty good.

They have some pretty stupid takes from time to time.

Massive grain of salt.

Yeah PFF was just the start down this journey. I thought they were crazy so I started digging in and what I found changed my perceptions.

 

[azsouthendzone]

I had no idea Rosen had 3 games with single digit QBRs. All three almost exactly a month apart.

10/18 Denver 2.2

11/18 Oakland 3.6

12/16 Atlanta 3.3

It was everyone's fault but Rosen's though. He had nothing to do with his performance. He would have been lights out if he was on any other team lol.

 

[Ohcrap75]

I guarantee you their analytical models for forecasting future success are nowhere near as accurate as you are making them out to be.

Given all the variables at hand for projecting future NFL success - 13 games, or however many Rosen played last year, would very likely not be anywhere close to enough data to make a confident projection.

Also - if it were THAT easy to accurately project future NFL success - every NFL team would build & use one of those models. Those teams would also very rarely make a wrong decision. There's a reason why teams seem to be wrong more often than they are right.

Whoa whoa whoa... Don't give away the Patriots secrets... PFF Premium membership

 

[Timm Rosenbach]

He shouldn’t have been playing until late in the season (if at all). Sam Bradford was signed for a reason. McCoy and Wilks caused a real problem. But when Bradford was holding his hands to the sky in frustration while lying on the turf after throwing an INT, we all knew Rosen had to go in. Management created a real mess. Let’s judge Rosen after the bye week next year

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yeah PFF was just the start down this journey. I thought they were crazy so I started digging in and what I found changed my perceptions.

Rosen played like poo.

But every respected football guy I've seen still says Rosen has a bright future.

Oklahoma-Alabama.

Murray is going to see alot of games like that as the Cardinals starting QB. He sucked.

 

[Solar7]

I do. It's funny how this board sways with the wind. Josh was called Overthrosen the last few games and now everyone thinks he is the second coming. It's so over the top.

If you think we think he's the second coming, you have poor reading comprehension.

The argument is literally to let the guy develop - even if that's a middle of the road QB that wins on account of a solid defense and some bounces his way - instead of drafting some flash in the pan manlet with a negative attitude that can bail on us at any time for another sport. All while accepting that we wasted three picks last year.

 

[slanidrac16]

I started to move to ''on the fence" for drafting Kyler Murray.

I needed something to make me doubt him so I watched his plays against Alabama.

Watch it, and tell me that it doesn't make you doubt him.

Murray made a number of really bad throws even when he wasn't pressured.

He still put up a lot of yardage, but that's also a function of having a great team and great playcaller.

Well can’t we pull up highlights of every qb that ever played the game that would make him look like a bum? Just saying...

 

[Crimson Warrior]

I saw Rosen make enough big boy throws to convince me that the analytics are dogshit. Dude had a number of passes that looked like Carson Palmer, where he threaded the needle. Oddly, most of those were to Ricky Seals-Jones, who dropped or misplayed most of those passes

And if we lose 12 games next year with Rosen because the offense sucks will you say:

"I saw Rosen play well enough so that those losses mean nothing. We're a great team despite our 4-12 record"

 

[kerouac9]

My question is who on this board really thinks Josh Rosen can be anything more than Matt Ryan as an NFL player? If you do, then you will likely be disappointed with his career. If you don't, then you are probably going to meet your expectations.

An NFL MVP and a Super Bowl appearance? I’ll take it. I think he might be a more dynamic leader than Ryan or Stanford, which may tilt the W/L convo.

Romo shouldn't be anywhere near a HOFer... and Rivers is iffy for me. But that's pretty much Ryan territory and I'd be happy with that.

Rivers might be the second-best QB never to win a championship. Top 10 all-time in passing yards and TDS.