Thoughts on First Rounders & Cardinals' Draft

[Mitch]

1. When you look at the 2010 NFL All-Pro Team...what jumps out at you is that save a handful of players, virtually all of the selections were first round picks:

WR: Roddy White (ATL); Reggie Wayne (IND)
OT: Jake Long (MIA); Joe Thomas (CLE)
OG: Logan Mankins (NE)
OC: Nick Mangold (NYJ)
DE: Julius Peppers (CHI); John Abraham (ATL)
DT: Haloti Ngata (BAL); Ndamukong Suh (DET)
OLB: Clay Matthews (GB)
ILB: Patrick Willis (SF); Jerod Mayo (NE)
CB: Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK): Derrelle Revis (NYJ)
S: Troy Polamalu (PIT); Ed Reed (BAL)

Those who were not:

QB: Tom Brady (NE-Rd. 6)
RB: Jamaal Charles (KC-Rd. 3); Arian Foster (HOU-UCFA)
FB: Vonta Leach (HOU-UCFA)
TE: Jason Whitten (DAL-Rd. 3)
KR: Devin Hester (CHI-Rd. 2)
OLB: James Harrison (PIT-UCFA)

Highlights:

* James Harrison is the only defensive player who was not a first rounder.

* RB and FB---they say it every year: you can get good ones well beyond the first two rounds.

* The Cardinals have not developed any of their 1st rounders in recent years into All-Pros---with the exception of WR Larry Fitzgerald---and---if you think about it---that was the one year the Cardinals did not draft for need. Coincidence?

2. Let's take a look at the 2010 All-Rookie Team and where each player was drafted:

QB: Sam Bradford STL (1)
RB: LeGarrette Blount TB (UCFA); Chris Ivory NO (UCFA)
TE: Rob Gronkowski NE (42)
WR: Mike Williams TB (101); Dez Bryant DAL (24)
OT: Jared Valdheer OAK (69); Rodger Saffold STL (33)
OG: Zane Beedles DEN (45); Mike Iupati SF (17)
OC: Maurkice Pouncey PIT (18)
KR: Marc Mariani TEN (222)
DE: Carlos Dunlap CIN (54); LaMarr Houston OAK (44)
DT: Tyson Alualu JAX (10); Ndamukong Suh DET (2)
OLB: Koa Misi MIA (40); Pat Angerer IND (63)
ILB: Rolando McClain OAK (8)
CB: Devin McCourty NE (27); Joe Haden CLE (7)
S: Earl Thomas SEA (14); Eric Berry KC (5)
P: Zoltan Mesko NE (150)
K: Cint Stitser CIN (UCFA)

Note: Again---RBs---both UCFAs, wow

Note: Oakland---much maligned over the years for their drafts---hit home runs with their first three picks: McClain, Houston and Valdheer

3. This year's Cardinals' Draft hinges quite a bit on just how high the coaches are on several of the young players on the roster. Let's look at the question marks at each position---and speculate as to what the coaches' thinking may be.

QB:

* John Skelton---are the coaches high enough on him to pass on a QB at #5? The team knows it is going to sign a veteran----who will likely start while the coaches give Skelton more grooming.

* If the Cardinals draft Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert...does that push Skelton to #3? Or do the Cardinals forget about signing a veteran and go with the two young QBs?

* Do the coaches have their eye on a QB beyond round one? My favorites are Colin Kaepernik, Greg McElroy and Nathan Enderle.

* How high are the coaches on late signee Richard Bartel?

You Make the Calls (YMC)...here are mine:

A. I am high on Skelton and want him to compete for the starter's job this year. I would like to see what Skelton can do with regular first team reps from the get-go. Thus, I am not going to draft a QB at #5---this is a great draft to add the edge rusher we need.

B. I think the coaches are higher on Bartel than we think. I think he will be in the mix to start next year. Looks like he has a pretty snappy release...decent vision and accuracy...the one part of his game that concerned me was how often he threw off his back foot...even when pressure was not in his face. But, this is correctable.

C. I would hope to land Kaepernik or McElroy in this draft. I am fine with taking Kaepernik at #38---if he's still there---which I think he won't be. And I like the #102 pick for McElroy---if he's still there. If both are gone at those spots---there are so many defensive players I like in this draft that I keep drafting defense instead.

I would love to approach this draft as a way of getting our defense swift, tenacious and strong for years to come. Use free agency to address the offense---where a few key veterans at QB, TE, and OL could make the unit much more polished and cohesive.

Back to address the other positions in a few minutes.

In the meantime...what is your assessment of the QB position in relation to the Cardinals' draft?

 

[ARodg]

*** You missed Chris Snee (OG-Giants-Pick #34) Cameron Wake (OLB-Miami-UDFA) and Devin McCourty (CB-NE-Pick #27)

"If you have more than one QB you don't have any" is an old saying in the NFL.


I agree with all of your analysis, except I'm not in love with Skelton.

Kapaernick (SP?), Newton, Gabbert and McElroy all look like good late round prospects, the difference is that two of them will be taken in the first round, because teams are in need of talent that isn't there.

Drafting a bust at QB with an early pick is a recipe for disaster, like we're seeing. If Leinart turns into Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers we're sitting here talking about how the Cards are a pass rush and good offensive line away from the superbowl. Instead we're talking about who's the best pick at #5.

Please, I'm begging you, don't be the sucker that pulls a hamstring reaching for a QB at #5. The talent isn't there. Trade back for multiple picks and get the defense back on it's feet and then pick up a QB in free agency.

 

[Goldfield]

The best way to improve at QB is to get the one with the least question marks. Make a trade for Orton and draft D and OL.

 

[Jasper]

A GM would have to be out in space to waste a 1st rounder on a FB, KR, K. Especially if picked between the 1-20th. Unless they were really really good. Most KRs are backup receivers or running backs. There are lots of journeymen to fill these positions.

A 1st round RB is worthless especially if the O-line is mediocre. A great O-line can make an UDFA look good and go to the pro bowl.

As for QBs do any of the QBs out there really better than Skelton? Not potentially, but realistically starting on week 1. If so go for it. Where would Skelton rank if he were to enter the draft this year, better or worst than the others?

 

[Mitch]

Sorry about two posts...I didn't think my first one went through.

My offensive notes are on the other thread if you want to see and respond to them.

Hopefully the mods will merge the two.

Thanks.

 

[Seandonic]

On just about any other team in the league Skelton would be buried at the bottom of the depth-chart and wouldn't see playing time for a year or two down the road. It is a testament to how bad the Cards are at QB that anyone is considering him this early as a potential starter. He is not ready to be a starting QB and may never be. He does show promise and I like him so he certainly should be kept and developed.

Bartel? The only way he is even on an NFL roster is because the Cardinals exist. Third string at best. Another example of how bad the Cards QB situation is the fact that he even sniffed the playing field last year.

Max Hall should do his best to hang around the league as a career back-up (which is all he'll ever be) and then become a coach. Hes the kind of fiery little tough intelligent guy that would make a good coach down the road.

So with that said I believe the Cardinals need two new QB's and neither one of them should be another low round iffy prospect. Let someone else draft the McElroys and the Stanzis of the world and develop them over the next five years to maybe be a decent player. The Cards need real quality right now. The Cards should acquire the best veteran they can get their hands on and draft the best QB available with their first pick.

I'm not saying this is exactly who the Cards should get but a opening day depth-chart like this would be encouraging: Orton, Skelton, Newton. The following seasons depth-chart would hopefully look like this: Newton, Orton, Skelton.

By the way Mitch...that was a very nice and well researched post...as usual.

 

[JeffGollin]

At first blush, this year's draft class profile, coupled with Cardinal position needs, suggests that a "trade down for more picks" strategy would make logical sense.

I believe this draft class is characterized by (a) very few elite players - maybe fewer than 5 - at the top, followed by (b) 4 or 5 rounds of really sound prospects who project as solid NFL starters.

Obstacles - (1) After the Suggs trade-down fiasco, it's hard to be confident that the Cardinal front office knows how to trade down for maximum value, avoid trading out of a blue-chip "plateau" etc. and (2) why any other NFL team would want to give up a bunch of lower-down picks in order to overspend for a top 5 guy (unless they have a different view of the overall draft-class profile than we do)?

To me, our 2 burning questions must be: (a) are any of the QB prospects truly franchise guys worthy of using our #5? and/or (b) is Miller really that talented (and relatively risk-free)? Plus a 3rd question - Are there 5 guys we really really like - so that we'll be guaranteed of getting one of them at #5?

 

[Cardiac]

On just about any other team in the league Skelton would be buried at the bottom of the depth-chart and wouldn't see playing time for a year or two down the road. It is a testament to how bad the Cards are at QB that anyone is considering him this early as a potential starter. He is not ready to be a starting QB and may never be. He does show promise and I like him so he certainly should be kept and developed.

Bartel? The only way he is even on an NFL roster is because the Cardinals exist. Third string at best. Another example of how bad the Cards QB situation is the fact that he even sniffed the playing field last year.

Max Hall should do his best to hang around the league as a career back-up (which is all he'll ever be) and then become a coach. Hes the kind of fiery little tough intelligent guy that would make a good coach down the road.

So with that said I believe the Cardinals need two new QB's and neither one of them should be another low round iffy prospect. Let someone else draft the McElroys and the Stanzis of the world and develop them over the next five years to maybe be a decent player. The Cards need real quality right now. The Cards should acquire the best veteran they can get their hands on and draft the best QB available with their first pick.

I'm not saying this is exactly who the Cards should get but a opening day depth-chart like this would be encouraging: Orton, Skelton, Newton. The following seasons depth-chart would hopefully look like this: Newton, Orton, Skelton.

By the way Mitch...that was a very nice and well researched post...as usual.

This. There is zero concern about Newtons physical skills. The interview and chalk board session will tell the tale.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

How the hell did Arian Foster go undrafted? It is still mind boggling.

 

[Mitch]

Now both my offensive and defensive needs and draft projections for the Cardinals are on the other post, if you want to react to them. Thanks.

 

[football karma]

There are 22 All Pro players (excluding specialists) -- less than one per NFL team. Getting one player who is regularly considered for All Pro is a little better than average.

Further, All Pro players disproportionately come from playoff teams. While there is a certain "chicken or the egg" question there -- I don't think there is any doubt that in close cases, being on a winning team improves your chances.

I think both Dockett and DRC have the talent to regularly contend for All Pro status -- but it will take winning/ playing in high profile games as well as better individual and overall defensive performance.

As for all rookie teams-- those are really a grab bag. Go look at prior years teams and you find both future all stars and guys never heard from again.

 

[overseascardfan]

The best way to improve at QB is to get the one with the least question marks. Make a trade for Orton and draft D and OL.

+1. Every college QB is at least a year away from being ready, KW can't wait and needs to get back on track this year. This draft is loaded with OL & LB prospects that can help the team this year. With the uncertainty of FA, we may have to get everything from the draft. Hopefully, the CBA gets agreed upon after the draft so we can trade a 2012 pick for a QB.

 

[TopGun]

The best way to improve at QB is to get the one with the least question marks. Make a trade for Orton and draft D and OL.

I couldn't agree more!!

 

[lobo]

I couldn't agree more!!

As much as I think Ortion makes sense...my second choice to Kolb...I just don't think he is going anywhere...Fox will not marchng into battle with Tebow leading the way..he ain't no dummy why look for someone better when you know what you have with Orton???

 

[TopGun]

As much as I think Ortion makes sense...my second choice to Kolb...I just don't think he is going anywhere...Fox will not marchng into battle with Tebow leading the way..he ain't no dummy why look for someone better when you know what you have with Orton???

I guess on my part it is wishful thinking getting Orton.

I don't think its just Fox not being comfortable with Tebow going forward, but I also think that Elway is not a big Tebow fan, from everything he has said.

Bottom line is if the Broncos put Orton on the trading block for a reasonable price, I sure hope the Cardinals are in the mix.

 

[DoTheDew]

* The Cardinals have not developed any of their 1st rounders in recent years into All-Pros---with the exception of WR Larry Fitzgerald---and---if you think about it---that was the one year the Cardinals did not draft for need. Coincidence?

Yes it is a coincidence. Finding an all-pro is nearly impossible because there are so few. By my count, 26 players made the list. That's less than 1 per team. None of the teams had 3 players on the list this year.

Fitz was a can't miss prospect. Since we picked him, we haven't been in the top 5 again until now. Rolle, Leinart, DRC, Beanie, and Williams all have legitimate arguments that they were considered the BPA at draft time. That they were also needs is the coincidence.

 

[conraddobler]

You can make a lot of arguements about us not taking a QB here, we certainly don't want to be training one that's for sure.

It's always a tradeoff to take a QB that high, you're selling out right now for later and it might not work out.

Still if you never take that chance, your chances of landing a franchise QB are lowered IMO.

Personally I think Gabbert is worth our pick, I've said that many times, I'm saying it again.