TJ Warren now

[hsandhu]

TJ has become one of the best small forwards in the league. This isn’t last year. He is probably top 7.

Nope, robert covingtons 42% shooting, on wide open shots because of embiid and simmons, is way better.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Nope, robert covingtons 42% shooting, on wide open shots because of embiid and simmons, is way better.

What? This post doesnt even make sense.

 

[SirStefan32]

I think he was being sarcastic. Or at least, I hope so.

 

[hsandhu]

I think he was being sarcastic. Or at least, I hope so.

Yes, someone earlier posted Covington is way better than tj

 

[JCSunsfan]

I think he was being sarcastic. Or at least, I hope so.

OK. Yeah. That makes sense. It makes me laugh to think of trading TJ for Covington.

I cannot imagine how ANYONE can think TJ's contract is not a a steal. I think I posted earlier.

Among small forwards he ranks

3rd in total points scored this year (James, KD).
3rd In scoring per 48 behind LeBron, Durant, and Michael Beasley (yes).
5th in scoring points per game only behind James, Durant, Middleton, and PG.
5th in double doubles
10th in rebounding
14th in blocked shots
23rd in steals

https://www.espn.com/nba/statistics...r-game/sort/avgPoints/position/small-forwards

 

[SirStefan32]

I agree. His contract is a steal. In addition to what you posted, he is also in the top 30 in scoring in the entire league.

 

[Hoop Head]

Warren isn't untouchable but shouldn't be a throw in or moved unless doing so really helps the Suns, now and later. Like it or not he's the 2nd best player on the Suns right now and most likely will be the 2nd best player next year as well. He's not the 2nd best player by default either, he works really hard on the court whenever he's out there. Some nights he looks better than Booker does. He doesn't force him game as much as Booker does, he lets it come to him. He's better with Booker on the court taking pressure off of him but he showed he can step up when Booker is out as well. The Suns are 8-0 when TJ scores more than 25 in a game this year. He's able to score like that without a 3 point shot either, which is impressive.

I'd like to see him add a 3 point shot to his game but he's been solid without it. Thankfully he doesn't jack up a bunch of bad 3's now. I know his 18% shooting from 3 is bad but he doesn't shoot them often, only 1.5 attempts a game. He's only taken more than 3 attempts 4 times this season. That tells me that he knows his game and will only take those when he's open and his other shots are falling. His offensive game would be a nice addition to any team because he typically scores on his own, without needing plays ran for him. If he can get a screen then he can get a shot. I really hope he works on his 3pt shooting this offseason but since he's so efficient already I'm not that worried about it. If he took more attempts I could see it as a bigger issue but he just doesn't take many 3's now. In his 2nd year he shot 40% from 3pt range on the same 1.5 attempts a game, so it's a matter of being consistent from out there.

 

[hcsilla]

TJ has become one of the best small forwards in the league. This isn’t last year. He is probably top 7.

Oh, no, that's an easy no.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Oh, no, that's an easy no.

Let's look...

Points Per Game Leaders - Qualified Small Forwards
RK PLAYER TEAM GP MPG PTS FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT%
1 LeBron James, SF CLE 36 37.4 27.8 10.6-19.0 .559 2.0-5.1 .391 4.6-5.9 .778
2 Kevin Durant, SF GS 32 34.6 25.9 9.3-18.5 .502 2.5-6.3 .395 4.9-5.5 .891
3 Paul George, SF OKC 34 37.1 20.6 6.9-16.5 .421 3.1-7.3 .430 3.6-4.4 .807
4 Khris Middleton, SF MIL 34 37.4 20.5 7.5-16.2 .463 2.1-5.9 .357 3.4-3.8 .885
5 TJ Warren, SF PHX 38 31.9 19.4 7.9-16.3 .484 0.3-1.6 .169 3.4-4.4 .766
6 Harrison Barnes, SF DAL 38 34.7 18.4 6.9-15.3 .449 1.3-3.7 .338 3.4-4.2 .816
7 Evan Fournier, SF ORL 29 32.6 18.3 6.7-13.9 .480 2.3-5.4 .423 2.7-3.0 .875
8 Tobias Harris, SF DET 35 32.9 18.0 6.7-14.6 .459 2.6-6.0 .440 2.0-2.4 .855
9 Andrew Wiggins, SF MIN 37 36.4 17.6 6.7-15.5 .431 1.5-4.4 .335 2.8-4.6 .615
10 Brandon Ingram, SF LAL 33 35.4 16.2 6.0-13.5 .446 0.5-1.6 .327 3.7-5.5 .672

TJ Warren is the 5th leading scorer among NBA small forwards, and has a better FG% than anyone in the top 10 other than Lebron and KD. Now, I understand he doesn't have an incredibly well-rounded game, so let's look at PER...

Of the top 15 scorers, TJ Warren is #5, after Lebron, KD, Otto Porter Jr., and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Subjectively, I'd say he's clearly behind James, Durant, and George...but you could make a case for him against any other small forward in the league.

 

[SirStefan32]

The question is always, "Would I rather have player A or player B?" Outside of James, Durant, and George, the answer is no. Ingram and Wiggins are question marks, as they do have some potential that TJ doesn't, mainly due to speed, explosiveness, and things like that, but I am not sure I'd take them over TJ at this point, especially considering how great his contract is.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

The question is always, "Would I rather have player A or player B?" Outside of James, Durant, and George, the answer is no. Ingram and Wiggins are question marks, as they do have some potential that TJ doesn't, mainly due to speed, explosiveness, and things like that, but I am not sure I'd take them over TJ at this point, especially considering how great his contract is.

I'd definitely take Ingram and Tatum, but not because I think they're necessarily better now. I think they will eventually be better.

Just to highlight what a steal Warren's contract is:

TJ Warren: 4 years, $50 million

Andrew Wiggins: 5 years, $146.5 million

Warren is just a year and a half older. Scores more points per game. Grabs more rebounds. Shoots 5% better from the field.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Let's look...

Points Per Game Leaders - Qualified Small Forwards
RK PLAYER TEAM GP MPG PTS FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT%
1 LeBron James, SF CLE 36 37.4 27.8 10.6-19.0 .559 2.0-5.1 .391 4.6-5.9 .778
2 Kevin Durant, SF GS 32 34.6 25.9 9.3-18.5 .502 2.5-6.3 .395 4.9-5.5 .891
3 Paul George, SF OKC 34 37.1 20.6 6.9-16.5 .421 3.1-7.3 .430 3.6-4.4 .807
4 Khris Middleton, SF MIL 34 37.4 20.5 7.5-16.2 .463 2.1-5.9 .357 3.4-3.8 .885
5 TJ Warren, SF PHX 38 31.9 19.4 7.9-16.3 .484 0.3-1.6 .169 3.4-4.4 .766
6 Harrison Barnes, SF DAL 38 34.7 18.4 6.9-15.3 .449 1.3-3.7 .338 3.4-4.2 .816
7 Evan Fournier, SF ORL 29 32.6 18.3 6.7-13.9 .480 2.3-5.4 .423 2.7-3.0 .875
8 Tobias Harris, SF DET 35 32.9 18.0 6.7-14.6 .459 2.6-6.0 .440 2.0-2.4 .855
9 Andrew Wiggins, SF MIN 37 36.4 17.6 6.7-15.5 .431 1.5-4.4 .335 2.8-4.6 .615
10 Brandon Ingram, SF LAL 33 35.4 16.2 6.0-13.5 .446 0.5-1.6 .327 3.7-5.5 .672

TJ Warren is the 5th leading scorer among NBA small forwards, and has a better FG% than anyone in the top 10 other than Lebron and KD. Now, I understand he doesn't have an incredibly well-rounded game, so let's look at PER...

Of the top 15 scorers, TJ Warren is #5, after Lebron, KD, Otto Porter Jr., and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Subjectively, I'd say he's clearly behind James, Durant, and George...but you could make a case for him against any other small forward in the league.

And consider this. TJ will be better with a real pg. He is not an iso player. His game is cutting receiving and scoring. He is putting up those numbers with Tyler Ulis, Mike James, and Isaiah Canaan getting him the ball and Booker as the only reliable floor spacer.

TJ Warren is one of the most undervalued players (by fans of his own team) in the league. The numbers bear it out. He is as undervalued as IT was here. And it’s for the same reason. Fans have other players that they like better and want to succeed more because they came here with more hype and cost more. In this case it’s JJ.

I just don’t see JJ pushing TJ out of the starting job. It’s not because JJ is a bust. It’s because TJ is that good. He is just so efficient in that midrange game. And he will add the three point shot. He has the form and the muscle memory. It’s just in his head right now.

 

[Mainstreet]

Also in regards to money, is Wiggins more than twice as good as Warren. I don't think so.

 

[elindholm]

Wiggins's numbers are way down this year compared to last, including his free-throw shooting, which is weird. Maybe he is out of sorts because of the contract or the addition of Butler. Based on what he's done in the past, plus that he's still so young, you'd have to prefer Wiggins to Warren.

Warren is an above-average starting SF and might crack the top ten, but it would be a reach to put him as high as 7th. These days, a SF is expected to be a potent three-point shooter, and without that, you either lose floor spacing or you have to resort to this "stretch four" nonsense. Warren can improve his three-point shooting, but I'd be surprised if he gets to the upper 30s, which is where a top-flight SF needs to be. Even James, historically not known has a strong three-point shooter, is up to 39% this year.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Well. He shot 40% his second year. I think he can end up there.

I still think, based on those numbers he is top 7. 5th in scoring, 10th in rebounding among small forwards.

 

[hcsilla]

Let's look...

Points Per Game Leaders - Qualified Small Forwards
RK PLAYER TEAM GP MPG PTS FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT%
1 LeBron James, SF CLE 36 37.4 27.8 10.6-19.0 .559 2.0-5.1 .391 4.6-5.9 .778
2 Kevin Durant, SF GS 32 34.6 25.9 9.3-18.5 .502 2.5-6.3 .395 4.9-5.5 .891
3 Paul George, SF OKC 34 37.1 20.6 6.9-16.5 .421 3.1-7.3 .430 3.6-4.4 .807
4 Khris Middleton, SF MIL 34 37.4 20.5 7.5-16.2 .463 2.1-5.9 .357 3.4-3.8 .885
5 TJ Warren, SF PHX 38 31.9 19.4 7.9-16.3 .484 0.3-1.6 .169 3.4-4.4 .766
6 Harrison Barnes, SF DAL 38 34.7 18.4 6.9-15.3 .449 1.3-3.7 .338 3.4-4.2 .816
7 Evan Fournier, SF ORL 29 32.6 18.3 6.7-13.9 .480 2.3-5.4 .423 2.7-3.0 .875
8 Tobias Harris, SF DET 35 32.9 18.0 6.7-14.6 .459 2.6-6.0 .440 2.0-2.4 .855
9 Andrew Wiggins, SF MIN 37 36.4 17.6 6.7-15.5 .431 1.5-4.4 .335 2.8-4.6 .615
10 Brandon Ingram, SF LAL 33 35.4 16.2 6.0-13.5 .446 0.5-1.6 .327 3.7-5.5 .672

TJ Warren is the 5th leading scorer among NBA small forwards, and has a better FG% than anyone in the top 10 other than Lebron and KD. Now, I understand he doesn't have an incredibly well-rounded game, so let's look at PER...

Of the top 15 scorers, TJ Warren is #5, after Lebron, KD, Otto Porter Jr., and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Subjectively, I'd say he's clearly behind James, Durant, and George...but you could make a case for him against any other small forward in the league.

No, you couldn't.

He is clearly behind James, Durant, George, Leonard, Porter, Middleton, Covington, Harris, Ariza and Tatum if you take shooting efficiency and defense into account (and why wouldn't you?).

Then there are a few more where you could make a case for Warren so he might be a top15 SF.

 

[hcsilla]

Well. He shot 40% his second year. I think he can end up there.

I still think, based on those numbers he is top 7. 5th in scoring, 10th in rebounding among small forwards.

Player evaluation is much more advanced than evaluating someone based on scoring and rebounding averages.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Forgot about Leonard, obviously.

I find it fascinating how often people feel they need to (and feel they have the ability to) decisively win an argument about subjective matters. The points are well-made, but then they are undermined by an overly definitive conclusion and often accompanied with malice towards anyone who may disagree. It's unnerving.

To be clear, this is not about any one poster; just a disturbing trend. I'm guilty of it too at times.

 

[hcsilla]

Forgot about Leonard, obviously.

I find it fascinating how often people feel they need to (and feel they have the ability to) decisively win an argument about subjective matters. The points are well-made, but then they are undermined by an overly definitive conclusion and often accompanied with malice towards anyone who may disagree. It's unnerving.

To be clear, this is not about any one poster; just a disturbing trend. I'm guilty of it too at times.

It is not (that) subjective:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/5

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

It is not (that) subjective:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/5

Sure it is. Devin Booker is the 27th best SG on that list, right behind Ron Baker.

 

[hcsilla]

Sure it is. Devin Booker is the 27th best SG on that list, right behind Ron Baker.

That would be an excellent response if I would have said that TJ Warren is 77th best SF.

Since I did not, it is not.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Since I did not, it is not.

Why the tone? If we were two Suns fans having a conversation in person, you wouldn't speak to me like this, so why do it on this message board? It's incredibly frustrating.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

To the topic at hand, I don't see real plus-minus as a definitive judgment of a player's worth, even when factoring in outlier performances.

Robert Covington is 6th in the league, at any position, on this list. David West is 17th. These are role players on elite teams, while Warren is the #2 option on a bad team. Given this and several other trends from the RPMs listed, it seems an ill-fitted tool for determining a player's objective overall value or ranking at a position in the league.

 

[Mainstreet]

So Derrick Jones Jr. is better than Warren according to the rankings. LOL

 

[hcsilla]

Sure it is. Devin Booker is the 27th best SG on that list, right behind Ron Baker.

Why the tone? If we were two Suns fans having a conversation in person, you wouldn't speak to me like this, so why do it on this message board? It's incredibly frustrating.